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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Capitol Seminars lobbying workshop
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: Attorney General's Office: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: California Welfare Directors Association: human services policy analyst
  • Job: Cargill Director of Governmental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

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Kick Out Kick Off

 

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • CA22 (Tulare): There is a poll out there conducted by Tulchin Research (conducted by the side supporting Andrew Janz) that finds this challenging pick-up for Democrats closer than one might think. It finds incumbent Devin Nunes at 48% and prosecutor Andrew Janz (D) at 43%. After additional biographical information (not provided in the polling memo), the poll finds the two tied at 46%. [n=400; July 22-25; English/Spanish; MOE +/-4.9%]

    Nunes/RNCC/SuperPAC folks on the other side, feel free to send whatever you're seeing. My only rule is that I need at least a memo with methodology and not just a press release or newspaper article. Readers, you can review and decide. CA22 is still "Leans Republican" for now.

BALANCE OF POWER: Note that I don't list district-specific predictions below, but rather use probabilities in toss-ups to make projections. Individual race ratings are on the ATC district pages.

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 39 Democrats, 10 Republicans, 4 toss-ups
  • Senate:
    • Current: 25 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 vacancy (D after Delgado is sworn if certified returns are as currently stand)
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans (I've been waffling on SD12 - analysis coming soon)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56 Democrats, 24 Republicans   

Good morning Nooner world!

As a reminder, Wednesday night is the annual Legislative All-Star Softball Game at Raley Field, with the first pitch is at 7 p.m. The Democrats' team is led by Ian Calderon (D-Whittier), Kevin McCarty (D-Sacramento), and Kevin Mullin (D-South San Francisco), while the Republicans are led by Brian Maienschein (R-San Diego). The event costs $20 and the proceeds go to the Mustard Seed School established by the Loaves & Fishes homeless shelter, which serves students 3-15 for free. The school provides far more than education for children in homeless families.

Buy your ticket(s) here with the access code LAGOnce purchased, redeem the voucher with Karla Mendoza in Assemblymember McCarty’s office to pick up or arrange for delivery of your Legislative All-Star Game tickets.

With what looks to be like perfect temperatures for an evening ball game, it should be a lot of fun, which will be needed over the next three weeks, if not more.I ran into a lobbyist working on the wildfire liability last night. He raised the horror scenario--a special session being called by Governor Brown on wildfire utility liability to keep lawmakers in town after August 31 if a deal is not reached by then. Oh, the horror. 

More on that issue and more, but let's start with the numbers.

Rankings in California's Top 20 in history from over the last 12 months:

Deadliest
#3 Tubbs (October 2017) - 22 deaths
#10 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 9 deaths
#13 Carr (July 2018) - 8 deaths
#14 Atlas (October 2017) - 6 deaths
#20 Cascade (October 2017) - 4 deaths

Most Destructive
#1 Tubbs (October 2017) - 5,636 structures
#6 Carr (July 2018) - 1,599 structures
#7 Nuns (October 2017) - 1,355 structures
#8 Thomas (December 2017) - 1,063 structures
#12 Atlas (October 2017) - 783 structures
#18 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 546 structures

Largest
#1 Mendocino Complex (July 2018) - 325,226
#2 Thomas (December 2017) - 281,893
#10 Carr (July 2018) - 190,873

 

FERGUSON: The Yosemite-area fire has burned 95,5544 acres and is 80% contained. Here is the latest on Yosemite National Park (same as yesterday), which plans to reopen Monday-Tuesday:

Yosemite Valley, Wawona, and Mariposa Grove reopenings
Wawona & Mariposa Grove reopen Aug 13. Yosemite Valley reopens Aug 14; access via Hwys 140 and 120. No access between Yosemite Valley and Wawona. Tioga Road and Big Oak Flat Road west of Crane Flat have already reopened. Expect limited services parkwide.

CARR (Shasta/Trinity): Carr continues to grow through largely unpopulated areas toward western Colusa and southwestern Glenn County, and moves up to the 10th largest wildfire in California history. 

  • Acreage: 190,873
  • Containment: 57%
  • Deaths: 8 (2 firefighters, 1 PG&E lineman apprentice, 1 CAL FIRE mechanic, and 4 civilians)
  • Structures destroyed: 1,599  (1,077 residences, 22 commercial, 500 other)
  • Structures damaged: 282 (191 residences, 26 commercial, 65 other)
  • Structures threatened: 528
  • Personnel: 4,641
  • Engines: 341
  • Helicopters: 13
  • Dozers: 104
  • Cause: Vehicle equipment malfunction
  • Expected full containment: Unknown 

MENDOCINO COMPLEX (Colusa/Lake/Mendocino): Great progress continues being made in the Mendo Complex is being made, and the growth has slowed significantly. The River Fire on the west side is 92% contained, while the Ranch Fire is at 58%.containment.

  • Acreage: 328,226
  • Containment: 67% 
  • Structures destroyed: 258 (139 residences, 119 other)
  • Structures damaged: 37 (13 residences, 24 other)
  • Structures threatened: 1,525
  • Personnel: 3,422
  • Engines: 281
  • Helicopters: 20
  • Dozers: 76
  • Cause: Unknown, but suspicious
  • Expected full containment: 09/1/18

HOLY FIRE (Orange/Riverside counties): Firefighters were able to hold the line yesterday at the ridge to keep the fire from moving downslope into the populated area around Lake Elsinore. 7,449 residential structures have been evacuated, with total evacuees estimated at 21,484.

  • Acreage: 19,107
  • Containment: 10% 
  • Structures destroyed: 12 
  • Structures threatened: 9,300
  • Personnel: 1,206
  • Engines: 30
  • Helicopters: 10
  • Dozers: 3
  • Cause: Suspected arson (suspect in custody)
  • Expected full containment: 08/15/18 

Repeating this from the Small Business Administration--forward to anyone you know in Shasta County:

The Disaster Recovery Center opened at 9:00am this morning and will be open 7 days/week from 9:00am to 7:00pm.
Former Kmart
2685 Hilltop Dr.
Redding, CA 96002
 
The SBA Office of Disaster Assistance also opened a Business Recover Center this morning at 8:00am with the location below. It will be open 8:00am to 5:00pm Monday through Friday to assist any businesses affected by the Carr Fire.
Superior California Economic Development office
350 Hartnell Avenue
Suite A
Redding, CA 96002

For the Press Democrat, Guy Kovner previews the meetings on Tuesday and Thursday of the special joint committee on wildfire prevention and response. Both are identified as "informational hearings," meaning no actions will be taken. Nearly every lobbyist in town is working on it from some angle and it is being baked like a soufflé in a darkened oven. Open it too early, it collapses. Make too much noise, it collapses. 

We won't know if the souffleé has perfectly risen until the timer goes off--and that very well may be Friday, August 31. 

The meeting is at 2 p.m. in Room 4202 on Tuesday and is scheduled for Room 112 on adjournment of both the Assembly and Senate sessions on Thursday (good luck figuring out when that is. The latter seems absurd, as a previous meeting over the recess nearly filled up 4202, including the balcony. There is no way that 112 could accomodate even just the insurance company and PG&E lobbyists, let alone consumer groups and victims. 

The problem? On Thursday, also on adjournment of session, both Appropriations Committees are clearing their lengthy "suspense files" in the two big rooms -- 4202 and 4203.  

It's unlikely video will be available if the wildfires meeting is concurrent with the two appropriations hearings. In my opinion, Thursday's meeting should be moved to Friday to allow a larger room and greater access to both professional and volunteer advocates on the issues. 

In the Los Angeles Times, Steve Lopez shares some of the negative responses to his previous columns on the wildfires and climate change.

 

More stories below . . .

 

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Vote YES on SB 1017

 

TRUMP VS. CALIFORNIA: For CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at how the Trump Administration is "pulling the chains" of California's politicians over vehicle emissions standards and more.

"Whatever his other talents may be – if he has any – Donald Trump excels at pulling the chains of California’s politicians.

He and others in his presidential administration delight in doing and saying things that elicit Pavlovian expressions of outrage on the left coast of the continent.

Many are just throwaway remarks, but some are serious challenges to California’s insistence on going its own way."

SANDY EGGO: In the Union-Tribune, Morgan Cook writes that a superior court has required that a qualified initiative that would require all county offices proceed to the statewide general election regardless of the result in the statewide primary election proceed to this November's ballot. The county board of supervisors sought to delay the issue to 2020 by commissioning a study. Functionally, what this means is that if a race is 51-49 (or 90-10) in the primary, both candidates would meet again in November, when turnout is higher. 

This is part of a strategy by Democrats and labor to flip county seats. While several areas have turned blue, they have voted significantly for Democrats in general elections, yet yield county officials who are registered Reps (technically non-partisan offices). Opponents argue that it, in many races, it will just increase the cost on candidates, their supporters, and counties by needlessly replicating shoe-in races in the fall. 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to State Senator Nancy Skinner!

#GHOSTSOFCAKEDAYSPAST: A belated happy birthday goes out to State Senator Steve Glazer (Friday).

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here:onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621

  • Attorney General's Office is seeking a Legislative Advocate with subject matter expertise in areas such as civil law, criminal law, public rights and law enforcement. The Advocate represents the Department of Justice on legislative matters before the State Legislature. The job can be viewed here.   
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  •  CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)

    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars offer you comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, along with best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll refer to the extensive curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5 and December 13-24. More information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The County Welfare Directors Association is hiring a Human Services Policy Analyst focusing on county-run programs serving children and adults. The Analyst supports the advocacy work CWDA is engaged in, at the direction of senior staff, including but not limited to legislative and budget efforts and implementation of policy changes enacted at the state and federal level. Competitive salary, excellent benefit package. Open until 8/1. Details: www.cwda.org/job-opportunities
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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