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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Capitol Seminars lobbying workshop
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: Attorney General's Office: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: California Welfare Directors Association: human services policy analyst
  • Job: Cargill Director of Governmental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

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DISTRICT UPDATES

  • AD43 (Glendale): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers - sign up now]
  • AD44 (Ventura County): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers - sign up now]
  • On the district pages, I know that there's some weird formatting stuff going on. I'm working on that and I'm also working on a printable sheet for each district for Nooner Premium subscribers, including the full analysis.

BALANCE OF POWER: Note that I don't list district-specific predictions below, but rather use probabilities in toss-ups to make projections. Individual race ratings are on the ATC district pages.

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 39 Democrats, 10 Republicans, 4 toss-ups
  • Senate:
    • Current: 25 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 vacancy (D after Delgado is sworn if certified returns are as currently stand)
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans (I've been waffling on SD12 - analysis coming soon)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56 Democrats, 24 Republicans   

AURAL PLEASURE:  On the Los Angeles Times California Politics Podcast, John Myers and Melanie Mason look at the utility wildfire liability, the DMV wait lines, and a pot pourri as th sprint toward the end of session gets started and on the California Housing Podcast, the LAT's Liam Dillon and CALmatters's Matt Levin talk about Proposition 5, which would give a property tax break to seniors.

Good morning. Whoa, I woke up at 7:30! Don't think I had a wild Friday night, I was just at a recording of the SacTown Talks podcast until 10. I'll provide the link when it's posted. Anyway, I may be mercifully short today, because, while I love you all, I love The Beatles even more, and the Yellow Submarine sing-along at Tower is at 11. Then, it's time to get the dharma on (read, great Japanese food) at the Sacramento Buddhist Church annual bazaar.

Speaking of Tower, I caught BLACKkKLANSMAN yesterday during my afternoon work break. Spike Lee's movie is fantastic, with Denzel Washington's son, John David Washington, turning in a great performance. It is certainly critical of the perceived political environment, so some Nooner readers would likely take offense--you have been warned.

 

On to the fires . . .

Rankings in California's Top 20 in history from over the last 12 months:

Deadliest
#3 Tubbs (October 2017) - 22 deaths
#10 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 9 deaths
#13 Carr (July 2018) - 8 deaths
#14 Atlas (October 2017) - 6 deaths
#20 Cascade (October 2017) - 4 deaths

Most Destructive
#1 Tubbs (October 2017) - 5,636 structures
#6 Carr (July 2018) - 1,599 structures
#7 Nuns (October 2017) - 1,355 structures
#8 Thomas (December 2017) - 1,063 structures
#12 Atlas (October 2017) - 783 structures
#18 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 546 structures

Largest
#1 Mendocino Complex (July 2018) - 325,226
#2 Thomas (December 2017) - 281,893
#10 Carr 163,207 (July 2018) - 186,416

 

FERGUSON: The Yosemite-area fire has burned 95,5544 acres and is 80% contained. Here is the latest on Yosemite National Park (same as yesterday), which plans to reopen Monday-Tuesday:

Yosemite Valley, Wawona, and Mariposa Grove reopenings
Wawona & Mariposa Grove reopen Aug 13. Yosemite Valley reopens Aug 14; access via Hwys 140 and 120. No access between Yosemite Valley and Wawona. Tioga Road and Big Oak Flat Road west of Crane Flat have already reopened. Expect limited services parkwide.

CARR (Shasta/Trinity): Carr continues to grow through largely unpopulated areas toward western Colusa and southwestern Glenn County, and moves up to the 10th largest wildfire in California history. 

  • Acreage: 186,416
  • Containment: 55%
  • Deaths: 8 (2 firefighters, 1 PG&E lineman apprentice, 1 CAL FIRE mechanic, and 4 civilians)
  • Structures destroyed: 1,599  (1,077 residences, 22 commercial, 500 other)
  • Structures damaged: 282 (191 residences, 26 commercial, 65 other)
  • Structures threatened: 528
  • Personnel: 4,665
  • Engines: 335
  • Helicopters: 12
  • Dozers: 116
  • Cause: Vehicle equipment malfunction
  • Expected full containment: Unknown 

MENDOCINO COMPLEX (Colusa/Lake/Mendocino): Great progress is being made in the Mendo Complex is being made, while it continued to burn although in largely unpopulated areas on the Ranch Fire side of the complex. The River Fire on the west side is 92% contained, while the Ranch Fire is at 58% containment.

  • Acreage: 325,226
  • Containment: 67% 
  • Structures destroyed: 258 (139 residences, 119 other)
  • Structures damaged: 37 (13 residences, 24 other)
  • Structures threatened: 9,300
  • Personnel: 3,521
  • Engines: 293
  • Helicopters: 20
  • Dozers: 80
  • Cause: Unknown, but suspicious
  • Expected full containment: 09/1/18

HOLY FIRE (Orange/Riverside counties): Firefighters were able to hold the line yesterday at the ridge to keep the fire from moving downslope into the populated area around Lake Elsinore. 7,449 residential structures have been evacuated, with total evacuees estimated at 21,484.

  • Acreage: 19,107
  • Containment: 10% 
  • Structures destroyed: 12 
  • Structures threatened: 9,300
  • Personnel: 1,206
  • Engines: 30
  • Helicopters: 10
  • Dozers: 3
  • Cause: Suspected arson (suspect in custody)
  • Expected full containment: 08/15/18 

Repeating this from the Small Business Administration--forward to anyone you know in Shasta County:

The Disaster Recovery Center opened at 9:00am this morning and will be open 7 days/week from 9:00am to 7:00pm.
Former Kmart
2685 Hilltop Dr.
Redding, CA 96002
 
The SBA Office of Disaster Assistance also opened a Business Recover Center this morning at 8:00am with the location below. It will be open 8:00am to 5:00pm Monday through Friday to assist any businesses affected by the Carr Fire.
Superior California Economic Development office
350 Hartnell Avenue
Suite A
Redding, CA 96002

More stories below . . .

 

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SD32 (Whittier): The special election to fill the seat created by Tony Mendoza's resignation is basically over, with Democrat Vanessa Delgado in the position to become the shortest serving female in the Legislature, since the term ends December 3 and she didn't make the general election for the full term, which has Montebello mayor Bob Archuleta (D) facing Republican businesswoman Rita Topalian.

 

Senate District 32 Special General Election
  Los Angeles Orange County Total Current Results
Vanessa Delgado (D)         24,879           1,735 26,614 52.4%
Rita Topalian (R)          22,343           1,875         24,218 47.6%
       
Est. Unprocessed Ballots

VBM: 50
Prov: 120

5    

  

GOV: In the Chron, Joe Garofoli reports that gubernatorial candidate John Cox (R) showed up at a DMV office near his San Diego home to hand out water bottles to folks waiting in the lengthy queue. "Look for Cox to show up at more DMV offices across California — toting ice cold water."

CA04 (Foothills): GOP congressman Tom McClintock differed a bit with President Trump yesterday in a conversation with the Sacramento Bee, reports Emily Cadei:

Asked about President Trump’s Tweets earlier this week complaining that California water policies were hurting efforts to fight more than a dozen major fires burning across the state, McClintock responded, “I think the president confused two issues that are separate,” referring to water policy and forest policy.

But he added, “Once you separate them he’s right on both.”

AD36 (Palmdale): Democrat challenger and former assemblymember Steve Fox has filed two Late Contribution Reports since the July 31 semi-annual filing deadline listing $9,000 of his own cash and $1,000 from another individual, so someone knows how to use the filing system. Of course, the semi-annual report still has not been filed.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Jennifer Capitolo and Chris Chavez!

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here:onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621

  • Attorney General's Office is seeking a Legislative Advocate with subject matter expertise in areas such as civil law, criminal law, public rights and law enforcement. The Advocate represents the Department of Justice on legislative matters before the State Legislature. The job can be viewed here.   
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  •  CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)

    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars offer you comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, along with best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll refer to the extensive curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5 and December 13-24. More information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The County Welfare Directors Association is hiring a Human Services Policy Analyst focusing on county-run programs serving children and adults. The Analyst supports the advocacy work CWDA is engaged in, at the direction of senior staff, including but not limited to legislative and budget efforts and implementation of policy changes enacted at the state and federal level. Competitive salary, excellent benefit package. Open until 8/1. Details: www.cwda.org/job-opportunities
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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