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DISTRICT UPDATES

  • CA22 (Tulare): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers - become one now!] - see below; maintaining as "Leans Republican," although "Toss-up" could become a possibility based on developments in Washington.
  • CA23 (Kern): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers - become one now!] - McCarthy's role as a congressman is secure, but his hopes of being Speaker may not be, nor may the consolation prize of House Minority Leader

BALANCE OF POWER: Note that I don't list district-specific predictions below, but rather use probabilities in toss-ups to make projections. Individual race ratings are on the ATC district pages.

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 39 Democrats, 10 Republicans, 4 toss-ups
  • Senate:
    • Current: 25 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 vacancy (D after Delgado is sworn if certified returns are as currently stand)
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans (I've been waffling on SD12 - analysis coming soon)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans 

Happy Thursday! For the Capitol scene folk, it should be another good day to hit the farmers' market on Capitol Mall (between 5th and 6th between 10 to 1:30pm). The stone fruit and berries are great right now, as are the dahlias. Can't wait to make a smoothie in a little bit with yesterday's bounty from the market at Cesár Chavez Plaza. No, I don't put dahlias in my smoothies. It didn't seem to smoky at "ground level" yestedray, although blue skies seem to be a thing of the past for us.

Okay I really just like messing up on, so my apologies to UC Regent appointee Rich Leib on reversing his vowels yesterday. 

WEEKEND PLUGS: On Saturday and Sunday, we have the Annual Japanese Food and Cultural Bazaar [program] at the Buddhist Church of Sacramento, which is at 2401 Riverside Blvd (15th Street). However, I won't be chowing on charcoal-grilled teriyaki chicken before going to The Beatles' Yellow Submarine Sing-Along at Tower Theatre. Beatles? Sing-along? Move over Rocky Horror! At the bazaar, the usually most anticipated performance is at 3pm Sunday, when the Sacramento Taiko Drum troop brings in the noise. Free entry.

If Saturday doesn't work for you for the sing-along, Tower is doing it again on Monday at 7pm. Tickets are $7/person for the Sunday show and $10.50 for Monday night.

DYNAMEX: As the campaign by business groups, particularly the tech industry, increase their pressure on the Legislature for statutory modifications to the April 30 state Supreme Court ruling, Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon told Capitol Public Radio that the Legislature will not act this year on the issue, and Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins concurred. CPR's Ben Adler reports. Meanwhile, the coalition pushing the changes broadened and sent an updated letter to lawmakers.

Adler writes:

“Ultimately, this decision is about the future of the way work looks. And that requires us to be thoughtful and deliberate,“ Rendon said. “And there’s no way we can be thoughtful and deliberate in three weeks.”

Senate President pro Tem Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) concurred.

“The California Supreme Court voted unanimously for this new test,“ she said in a statement. “I agree with Speaker Rendon that forging any legislative review or response to their decision in just three weeks isn’t workable.”

Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the Democratic caucuses over the next week would be juicy. Let's just say that from my conversations, Democrats are split. I am not consulting or otherwise working on this issue. It's just a fascinating to me from a political/economic geek's perspective.  

On to the fires . . .

Rankings in California's Top 20 in history from over the last 12 months:

Deadliest
#3 Tubbs (October 2017) - 22 deaths
#10 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 9 deaths
#13 Carr (July 2018) - 8 deaths
#14 Atlas (October 2017) - 6 deaths
#20 Cascade (October 2017) - 4 deaths

Most Destructive
#1 Tubbs (October 2017) - 5,636 structures
#6 Carr (July 2018) - 1,599 structures
#7 Nuns (October 2017) - 1,355 structures
#8 Thomas (December 2017) - 1,063 structures
#12 Atlas (October 2017) - 783 structures
#18 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 546 structures

Largest
#1 Mendocino Complex (July 2018) - 300,086
#2 Thomas (December 2017) - 281,893
#11 Carr 163,207 (July 2018) - 177,450

 

FERGUSON: The Yosemite-area fire has burned 91,502 acres and is 38% contained. Here is the latest on Yosemite National Park, which remains closed:

"Yosemite Valley, Wawona, Glacier Point, Mariposa Grove, and Hetch Hetchy are closed due to fire. - Yosemite Valley, Wawona, Mariposa Grove, Glacier Point, and Hetch Hetchy are closed. Tioga Road and Big Oak Flat Road west of Crane Flat are open. Big Oak Flat Road east of Crane Flat remains closed. Limited services in Big Oak Flat and Crane Flat areas."

CARR (Shasta/Trinity): Carr continues to grow through largely unpopulated areas toward western Colusa and southwestern Glenn County, and moves up to the 11th largest wildfire in California history. We have another death reported today, making Carr the lone #6 deadliest wildfire in recorded California history. 

  • Acreage: 177,450
  • Containment: 48%
  • Deaths: 8 (2 firefighters, 1 PG&E lineman apprentice, 1 CAL FIRE mechanic, and 4 civilians)
  • Structures destroyed: 1,599  (1,077 residences, 22 commercial, 500 other)
  • Structures damaged: 282 (191 residences, 26 commercial, 65 other)
  • Structures threatened: 935
  • Personnel: 4,761
  • Engines: 361
  • Helicopters: 16
  • Dozers: 118
  • Expected full containment: Unknown 

MENDOCINO COMPLEX (Colusa/Lake/Mendocino): The Mendo Complex continued to burn although in largely unpopulated areas on the Ranch Fire side of the complex. The River Fire on the west side is 84% contained.

  • Acreage: 304,402
  • Containment: 51% 
  • Structures destroyed: 229 (119 residences, 110 other)
  • Structures damaged: 27 (12 residences, 15 other)
  • Structures threatened: 9,300
  • Personnel: 4,019
  • Engines: 404
  • Helicopters: 19
  • Dozers: 84
  • Expected full containment: 09/1/18

HOLY FIRE (Orange/Riverside counties): As the Holy Fire proceeds into Riverside County, several school districts are closed because of smoke and fire risk. The OCR's Beatriz E. Valenzuela reports:

“(O)ut of an abundance of caution, and because of mandatory evacuations in specific neighborhoods affected by the Holy fire, the following Lake Elsinore Unified School District schools will be closed until further notice: Luiseño School, Rice Canyon Elementary, Terra Cotta Middle School, and Withrow Elementary,” the district said on its website.

All of the schools in the Perris Elementary School District, the Perris Union High School District,  the Menifee Union School District, and the Romoland School District, as well as Santa Rosa Academy, will be closed Thursday as well.

Thursday was to be Romoland’s first day of school.

  • Acreage: 9,614
  • Containment: 5% 
  • Structures destroyed/damaged: several cabins
  • Structures threatened: 9,300
  • Personnel: 639
  • Engines: 30
  • Helicopters: 10
  • Dozers: 3
  • Expected full containment: 08/15/18

 

From the Small Business Administration:

The Disaster Recovery Center opened at 9:00am this morning and will be open 7 days/week from 9:00am to 7:00pm.
Former Kmart
2685 Hilltop Dr.
Redding, CA 96002
 
The SBA Office of Disaster Assistance also opened a Business Recover Center this morning at 8:00am with the location below. It will be open 8:00am to 5:00pm Monday through Friday to assist any businesses affected by the Carr Fire.
Superior California Economic Development office
350 Hartnell Avenue
Suite A
Redding, CA 96002

 

More stories below . . .

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Capitol Seminars lobbying workshop
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: Attorney General's Office: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: California Welfare Directors Association: human services policy analyst
  • Job: Cargill Director of Governmental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Serna Center @ Sac City Unified: Chief Business Officer
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

Senate District 32 Special General Election
  Los Angeles Orange County Total Election Night Results
Vanessa Delgado (D)         21,899           1,540         23,439 51.7%
Rita Topalian (R)          20,188           1,679         21,867 48.3%
       
Unprocessed Ballots

VBM: 3,560
Prov: 1,200
Misc: 365

First update expected Friday afternoon

Total: ~85    

 

CA22 (Tulare): House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) is in the news again and, while it will appeal to GOP donors, it is also already energizing liberals hoping for an upset in Nunes's own election. The Times's Sarah D. Wire reports:

Republicans need to keep control of the House to protect President Trump from the Russia investigation, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes said at a recent fundraiser, according to an audio recording released Wednesday.

“If Sessions won’t unrecuse and Mueller won’t clear the president, we’re the only ones. Which is really the danger,” Nunes said, referring to Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions and Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel heading the investigation into Russian efforts to sway the 2016 election and possible coordination with the Trump campaign.
these seats.

"We have to keep the majority. If we do not keep the majority, all of this goes away,” Nunes said.

The recording was released by MSNBC, which said it received it from a person associated with Fuse Washington, a progressive group based in Seattle. The person had paid the $250 to attend the fundraiser that Nunes held with House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.).

Twitter was aflame after excerpts of Nunes's comments were aired on the Rachel Maddow Show. The Washington Post's Aaron Blake dissects the tape's contents.

Eight-term congressman Nunes is being challenged by Democrat Andrew Janz, a Fresno County prosecutor. Janz had $1.1 million on hand as of June 30, while strong fundraiser Nunes had $6.1 million. Democrats combined for 40.6% in the primary, Nunes received 57.6%, and a Lib and an NPP shared the rest. It's a tough seat for Democrats to try to pick up, as Republicans have a 9.59% advantage over Democrats, so Janz would have to do extraordinarily well among no party preference voters (20.82%) for Janz to have a shot.

Nevertheless, Republicans have to focus on protecting Nunes because of the tough cycle and, well, it would be very embarrassing to lose a seat that neighbors House Speaker hopeful Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield).

McCarthy won't lose his seat although his role in the 116th Congress is about as clear as Sacramento's smoky sky is as I write today. He is one of four Central Valley Republicans (incl. Denham, Nunes, Valadao) who could be affected by the trade wars and the Russia investigation. Voters in most of these districts don't eat/breathe/sleep the Russia investigation there, but any day not talking agriculture, water, and housing is a bad day for these incumbents. 

GOV: In the Times, Seema Mehta writes that the two candidates for governor are spending much of their time campaigning for other candidates and issues:

Front-runner [Gavin] Newsom will spend significant time trying to help Democrats flip seven California congressional seats that are crucial to the party’s efforts to retake the House, a win that would provide a counterweight to President Trump and his policies. Republican [John] Cox will campaign for a ballot measure to repeal an increase in the state’s gas tax, hoping the effort lights a populist fire among California voters that draws in Democrats and independents.

In an environment where voters are not particularly tuned in to the governor’s race, working on behalf of other campaigns is a smart move, some political strategists said.

That's California. Help and build allies early and then take to the air. 

SCOCAL: I know I have written about this before, but Dan Walters weighs in on why Governor Brown is stalling on nominating a candidate to the Supreme Court of California, which currently has a 3-3 split of Democrat (all Brown appointees) and Republican justices. It's about whether or not the nominee, if approved by the Commission on Judicial Appointments, has to appear on the November 6 ballot for the routine retention question. If he waits until after August 30, the appointee wouldn't be up for retention until 2022.

In the unanimous Dynamex case discussed above, Judge Peter Siggins, a Schwarzenegger appointee, of the First District Court of Appeal stood in as the seventh justice.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Sean Donohoe, Kathy Neal, and Teresa Stark!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here:onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621

  • Attorney General's Office is seeking a Legislative Advocate with subject matter expertise in areas such as civil law, criminal law, public rights and law enforcement. The Advocate represents the Department of Justice on legislative matters before the State Legislature. The job can be viewed here.   
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  •  CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)

    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars offer you comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, along with best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll refer to the extensive curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5 and December 13-24. More information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The County Welfare Directors Association is hiring a Human Services Policy Analyst focusing on county-run programs serving children and adults. The Analyst supports the advocacy work CWDA is engaged in, at the direction of senior staff, including but not limited to legislative and budget efforts and implementation of policy changes enacted at the state and federal level. Competitive salary, excellent benefit package. Open until 8/1. Details: www.cwda.org/job-opportunities
  • CHIEF BUSINESS OFFICER (CBO)
    SERNA CENTER Sacramento City USD 5735 47th Ave. Sac, CA 95824
    Salary Range: $157,252 – $197,031 yrly. Medical, Dental and Vision; $4,800 annual travel stipend
    CBO’s role is to create a structure incorporating the District’s annual budget process with the Local Control Accountability Plan (LCAP) and Single Plan for Student Achievement (SPSA) using the SCUSD Guiding Principle and Core Value Statement. The ability to incorporate them into one seamless process could lead to more equitable outcomes for all students.
    Apply: www.edjoin.org/Home/Jobs?stateID=24&countyID=34&districtID=583
    Contact: Monica Garland monicaga@scusd.edu
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Tribune Media Terminates $3.9-billion Sale To Sinclair Broadcast Group
Stephen Battaglio @
latimes.com
Tribune is also suing Sinclair for breach of contract.

News Analysis: Trump Claims Election Night Credit. Itâ

President Trump and his chaotic, controversy-laden tenure are at least partly responsible for creating a toxic political climate for the Republican candidates he is trying to save.

Nunes Says In Audio That Republicans Need Majority To Protect Trump
Sarah D. Wire @
latimes.com
In a recording released by MSNBC, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes says Republicans have to hold the House in order to protect Trump

U.S. Carmakers Hit With Chinese Tariffs As Trade War Changes Gear - Politico

For the Chinese side, swapping out items on its final tariff list reflects its desire to reduce the impact to its own economy while putting more pressure on President Donald Trump, who will face critical midterm elections in November. | Getty Images