If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here
Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box

 

Become a Nooner Premium subscriber to access exclusive election analysis and back end data. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

 

advertisement

 

REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

NOTE: A couple of would-be subscribers were looking for my physical address to send a check for a subscription. My address is posted here. Checks are made out to me as the bank isn't crazy about checks to "The Nooner" (sole proprietorship).

 

BALLOT UPDATES

  • ELIGIBLE FOR 11/2018 BALLOT: Authorizes Bonds Funding Construction at Hospitals Providing Children’s Health Care. Initiative Statute. [17-0045]
  • ELIGIBLE FOR 11/2018 BALLOT: Eliminates Certain Liability for Lead-Paint Manufacturers. Authorizes Bonds to Fund Structural and Environmental Remediation Projects. Initiative Statute. [17-0049]

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • SD12 (Merced): changed from Leans Republican to Leans Democrat
  • SD28 (Coachella Vly): changed from Leans Democrat to Leans Republican
  • AD32 (Bakersfield): changed from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat
  • AD36 (Palmdale): changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican
  • AD38 (Santa Clarita): changed from Toss-up to Leans Republican
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican
  • AD76 (Oceanside): changed from Leans Republican to Safe Democrat

 

  • The AroundTheCapitol district pages now has the top two candidates proceeding to November. Results won't be final until counties send their certified results to the Secretary of State by July 6, but I don't foresee any changes to what is posted. After we have final results, I'll have them on the pages and a downloadable spreadsheet for Nooner Premium subscribers.

 

Happy Humpday! Perfect day in Sacramento as we head toward a high of 86. Who would have thought the group stage headline would be Corea saves México?

México will face the winner of Group E winner on Monday at 7am. The Group E games are taking place as I type, and it will be either Brazil, Serbia, or Switzerland.

BUDGET: Governor Brown signed the 2018-19 State Budget and trailer bills this morning in Los Angeles. Apparently, no line-item vetoes.

SCOTUS WITH THE MOSTUS

- UNION "FAIR SHARE" FEES: This morning, the Supreme Court held 5-4 in Janus v. AFSCME that public sector unions may not collect "fair share fees" for the cost of representation for "agency shop" employees for activities such as collective bargaining and grievance representation of employees. 

For these reasons, States and public-sector unions may no longer extract agency fees from nonconsenting employees. The First Amendment is violated when money is taken from nonconsenting employees for a public-sector union; employees must choose to support the union before anything is taken from them. Accordingly, neither an agency fee nor any other form of payment to a public-sector union may be deducted from an employee, nor may any other attempt be made to collect such a payment, unless the employee affirmatively consents to pay.

Alito wrote the opinion, and was joined by Gorsuch, Kennedy, Roberts, and Thomas in the majority. Kagan wrote the dissenting opinion, and was joined by Breyer, Ginsberg, and Sotomayor.

This is a huge blow to public sector unions, particularly in a state like California where unions have such a strong influence on politics and policy. Unions know that this is just not about the ability for non-members to avoid paying "fair share fees," but will also lead current members who pay the non-fair share dues to join the ranks of nonmembers, delivering a huge financial blow. And, it's a downward spiral if they try to make up for lost membership by raising the portion of dues that historically have gone to non-fair share costs. 

The impact won't be known for a while, and the impact will be varied. Small, tight-knit unions such as firefighter and school locals are less likely to lose members because it is personal among peers. Meanwhile, large unions like SEIU Local 1000 representing the majority of state employees could be hit hard. The closer union leadership is to members, the safer they are under Janus. It's the big unions in which the cubicle worker never sees leadership that are threatened the most.

The LAT's John Myers gets a quote from SEIU State Council:

“No one is trying to pretend that it’s not a hit,” said Alma Hernandez, political director of the Service Employees International Union’s California state council. “But I think that the work that our locals have done across the state will help us maintain a majority of our members in the union.”

A "majority" of current members would be devastating. Unlike previous attacks on unions at the state level, this is a Supreme Court constitutional ruling overturning prior precedent in Abood v. Detroit Bd. of Ed., 431 U. S. 209 (1977), which was a unanimous decision, although four were through concurring opinions.

- WATER RIGHTS: In the other opinion delivered today, Florida v. Georgia, the 5-4 decision essentially provided a structure for evaluation of the facts relating to the burden on Florida in the fight over river water between the two states. The case was remanded for further proceedings to be conducted again by Special Master. It's a win for Florida, for now, as the decision essentially finds that the previous decision by the Special Master placed too high of a burden of proof of harm on the state of Florida.

I haven't read the whole decision yet, but the line-up of the 5-4 is interesting. The decision was by Breyer, who was joined by Ginsberg, Kennedy, Roberts and Sotomayor. The dissent was written by Thomas, who was joined by Alito, Gorsuch, and Kagan. Clearly, this was not a political decision.

As I've written before about Florida, it really won't affect California unless the state is split up, which is very unlikely. California's river water is mostly from the Sierra Nevada watershed and the Colorado River. The latter has been well negotiated and legally divided up for decades, and that's unlikely to change. 

Finally, there were no retirements today. The speculation has mostly been around Justices Kennedy and Thomas. While retiring at the last sitting of the term is generally the custom, it is not required. 

While he did not announce it from the bench, Justice Kennedy is reportedly retiring from the bench, giving President Trump another opening on the high court.

LEAD PAINT: As noted above, the initiative backed by manufacturers of leaded paint that would shift much of the cost of abatement to taxpayers have submitted enough valid signatures to be eligible for the November ballot. The backers are Sherwin-Williams and ConAgra Grocery Products.

However, San Francisco and Santa Clara filed a lawsuit in the California Supreme Court yesterday to try to keep the measure off the ballot. Per the press release from the City and County of San Francisco "The lawsuit, filed today, argues that the initiative violates the California Constitution’s single subject rule and reenactment rules, and is fundamentally misleading and deceptive." [writ]

 

advertisement


Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

UNPROCESSED BALLOT STATUS:

  • Vote-by-mail: 192,519
  • Provisional: 61,550
  • Conditional voter registration: 3,203
  • Damaged: 16,827
  • Total: 274,099

 

THE SCRAMBLE: For Capitol Weekly, Chuck McFadden reports on the scramble to get a privacy deal before tomorrow's deadline for eligible initiatives to be pulled from the November ballot. There has been confusion (including by myself) about whether an eligible initiative--one with sufficient valid signatures--can be pulled or not. At midnight tomorrow night those that have sufficient signatures switch from being "eligible" to "qualified." After qualified, they cannot be withdrawn.

McFadden writes:

The bill, Assembly Bill 375, by Assemblyman Ed Chau, D-Monterey Park, is on track to move rapidly from the state Senate back to the Assembly and then to Gov. Jerry Brown’s desk with just hours to spare. Brown, a Democrat, has not said whether he will sign the bill. The contents of the final bill have not yet been negotiated.

The bill’s backers are scrambling to get the initiative to Brown’s desk on June 28, hours before the deadline.

There are no floor sessions today, so the bill has to clear both houses and garner Brown's signature before midnight tomorrow. I wonder which luck Secretary of State staffer gets to sit by the fax machine tomorrow night.

The other bill that is having similar negotiations up to the deadline is the deal to head off an initiative to block local soda taxes without a supermajority. The bill is SB 872, which is being crafted to get initiative backers to withdraw. The bill is still in Assembly Budget and, like AB 375, would need to pass both houses and get the governor's signature (or commitment thereof) to secure the withdrawal of the initiative by tomorrow night. 

The LAT's Liam Dillon reports that the bill is moving quickly, while the Bee's Alexei Koseff writes that the governor had soda executives over to the governor's mansion for dinner as the deal was being negotiated.

Yesterday was the deadline for counties to submit their random sample results. The random samples by counties are due tomorrow and initiative backers clearly have enough signatures to qualify for November when counties submit their tallies. 

Tomorrow is going to be a cray-cray day, adding to a cray-cray week, as part of a cray-cray month. Did I tell you that Corea got México in to the Round of 16?

Speaking of cray-cray, I love L.A. . .

DA DEMS: For the SacBee, Alexei Koseff writes that Assembly Democrats are looking to expand on their supermajority this November:

In San Diego County, Democrats placed first and second in the 76th AD, ending Republican chances of holding onto the seat previously occupied by Rocky Chávez, R-Oceanside. If they don't lose any seats they hold in November, Democrats would claim 56 seats — the most Assembly seats the party has held in 40 years, according to Alex Vassar, legislative historian for the California State Library. Vassar said the all-time record for Democratic Assembly seats was 68 in 1854.

Of course, Democrats are on the defense in AD32 (Salas), AD60 (Cervantes), and offense in AD16 (Baker).

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Events: American Association of Political Consultants Regional Conference (June 25-26 - Sacramento)
  • Job: Cargill Director of Governmental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: The East Bay Community Foundation: VP of Community Investment and Partnerships
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: Randle Communications 
  • Job: Serna Center @ Sac City Unified: Chief Business Officer
  • Job: The California Dental Association seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

TAX WARS: Joel Fox writes that the interest of labor to keep the "soda tax" initiative off the ballot may be to keep the door open for local taxes dedicated to covering employee pension costs. He also notes that SB 872, the legislative soda tax limitation, would sunset in 2030, which is when the income tax surcharge on wealthy individuals is set to sunset--perhaps leading to a "tax war."

HIKE! The California Citizens' Compensation Commission has approved a 3% salary increase to adjust for inflation for legislators and constitutional officers, reports Bryan Anderson for the Bee.

THE OTHER CAPITOL: Joe Mathews opines that neither Kevin McCarthy nor Nancy Pelosi should be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives. "Typically, Californians should root for one of their own to advance to a high office like speaker. But not this year."

MO' MONEY, MO' PROBLEMS: For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes that George Soros was a big loser in the June 5 election. "[T]hree of the four Soros candidates in California, all of whom were challenging incumbent prosecutors, lost badly, failing even to gain enough votes to get into general election runoffs."

  

Probolsky Research

 

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Larry Doyle and Assemblyman Matthew Harper!

  

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.
    
  • CHIEF BUSINESS OFFICER (CBO)
    SERNA CENTER Sacramento City USD 5735 47th Ave. Sac, CA 95824
    Salary Range: $157,252 – $197,031 yrly. Medical, Dental and Vision; $4,800 annual travel stipend
    CBO’s role is to create a structure incorporating the District’s annual budget process with the Local Control Accountability Plan (LCAP) and Single Plan for Student Achievement (SPSA) using the SCUSD Guiding Principle and Core Value Statement. The ability to incorporate them into one seamless process could lead to more equitable outcomes for all students.
    Apply: https://www.edjoin.org/Home/Jobs?stateID=24&countyID=34&districtID=583
    Contact: Monica Garland monicaga@scusd.edu
  • The East Bay Community Foundation – mobilizer of financial assets and community leadership to transform the lives of people in the East Bay – seeks a collaborative, strategic and mission-driven Vice President of Community Investment and Partnerships (CIP) to lead effective community-centered strategies; stay abreast of community needs and developments; and serve as a connecter between CIP and the Executive Management Team. This position reports to the President & Chief Executive Officer in downtown Oakland. Learn more here. Interested and qualified applicants should apply by emailing a cover letter, resume and list of three references to eastbaycommunityfoundation@walkeraac.com by Friday, June 22, 2018.
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • Cal State Student Association seeks Legislative Policy Analyst
    The position is responsible for researching and analyzing legislative policy issues. Additionally, the position will be responsible for externally representing the organization in legislative meetings and committees. Lastly, the position will be responsible for advising our board of directors and legislative affairs committee. For more information and to apply, visit apptrkr.com/1226018

  • Finance & Operations Manager
    California YIMBY is looking for an innovative, resourceful, inspired individual to serve as the Finance & Operations Manager to manage day-to-day finances and operations, act as internal authority on grant requirements, and create and track annual budget. Reports directly to the CEO. $65,000-$85,000/year DOE + benefits. cayim.by/finopsmanager for details.

  • Digital Director
    California YIMBY is seeking an innovative, resourceful, inspired individual to serve as the Digital Director to create digital program to tell story of CA's housing crisis. Reports directly to the Chief Advocacy Officer. $75,000-$90,000/year DOE + benefits. cayim.by/digdirector for details.
  • Organizing Director
    California YIMBY is seeking a motivated, tenacious, creative individual to serve as the Organizing Director to conceive large scale organizing strategy and develop, write and implement a comprehensive strategic organizing plan. Reports directly to the Chief Advocacy Officer. $75,000-$90,000/year DOE + benefits. cayim.by/orgdirector for details.
  • Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager to work across multiple teams providing management, coordination, and support needed to execute programs and initiatives. Ideal candidate is a self-starter, good writer, client service oriented, has an eye for detail, and believes in California’s local health plans’ mission. Salary BOE. Details.
  • Imprenta Communications Group Seeks Account Coordinator to Join Our Sacramento Office. Successful candidate will have 1-3 years previous experience working at a public relations agency, on political campaigns, political staff, or corporate marketing. The ideal candidate is a hard-working, professional, and dedicated individual seeking to empower communities of color. Spanish or Asian language fluency preferred. Full job description can be viewed here. Submit resume and cover letter to Ken Tiratira at ktiratira@icgworldwide.com for consideration
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.
  • SEIU-UHW – Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
    This position is responsible for working in close collaboration with multiple levels of staff and members to develop goals and execute plans for members participation in all areas of the political program and hard dollar fundraising.  Also provides staff support to our Political Action Advisory Committee, in collaboration with representational staff.  Candidate will train and mentor COPE chairs and member activists to help them achieve political goals.  Proven fundraising track record is a must.  Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • Add your classified for $40/week by emailing scottlay@gmail.com


TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Trump Tax Cuts Carry A Big Price Tag: Huge Debt And Risk Of Another Financial Crisis, Budget Office Warns
Evan Halper @
latimes.com
The tax cuts championed by President Trump are pushing the nation toward unprecedented levels of debt, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office.

Poll: Support For GOP Tax Law Erodes - Politico

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady gives his opening statement during the first day of a tax reform markup session in the Longworth building on Nov. 6, 2017. | John Shinkle/POLITICO

L.A. Visit By U.S. Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions Sparks Downtown Protest, Arrests
latimes.com
Dozens of protesters were gathering downtown Tuesday morning to demonstrate a visit by U.S. Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions to downtown Los Angeles, where he delivered an afternoon speech.

Watchdog Closes Zinke Threat Probe, Citing Lack Of Cooperation From Interior - Politico

The Interior Department acknowledged Secretary Ryan Zinke phoned Senate Energy Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski and Sen. Dan Sullivan one day after Murkowski voted against the GOP's legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo