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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • CA04 (Foothills): changed from Toss-up to Leans Republican (vote-by-mail ballot returns)
  • CA45 (Irvine): changed from Toss-up to Leans Republican (vote-by-mail ballot returns)
  • CA49 (Oceanside): changed from Toss-up to Leans Democrat (voter registration trend)
  • CA50 (East San Diego County): changed from Toss-up to Leans Republican (vote-by-mail ballot returns)

This is it! Legislators, lobbyists, and staffers are happy that the "house of origin" deadline has arrived (technically tomorrow). This means that bills introduced in one house have to be approved in today's final sessions or they meet their maker. Since it's the second year of the two-year session, bills that don't pass truly meet the Grim Reaper. 

Tonight, the Warriors face the Cavaliers for the fourth time in game 1 of the NBA finals at 6pm. Go Warriors!

Lobbyist Chris Micheli, who thankully tracks these data, reports on what's on the chopping block:

  • Senate: 33 Senate bills 
  • Assembly: 132 Assembly bills (only 40 are considered still in the mix)

Congrats to staffers who get their bills across the building, and there is always next year for those who didn't. For home-gamers, legislative staff, particularly junior staff, take their bills very personally and that first loss is very difficult. While I've never been in that position, I've watched it many times. It's the same thing as a district attorney or public defender on their first trial. 

We have next year!

POLL POSITION: And, we have another poll. This one, from Berkeley IGS. 

  • Travis Allen: 12%
  • John Chiang: 7%
  • John Cox: 20%
  • Delaine Eastin: 4%
  • Gavin Newsom: 33%
  • Antonio Villaraigosa: 13%
  • All others: 4%
  • Undecided: 7%

 [n=2,106 likely voters; English/Spanish; online via email invite from voter rolls; May 22-28; +/- 3.5%]

Although I have been critical of online polls, with the "jungle" top-two primary resulting in 27 candidates for governor, it's the only way it can be practically done without limiting respondents' choices. 

That said, it's pretty clear considering all the polls we've been looking at. Gavin Newsom will be on the November 6 ballot. I'd give an 80% chance that Republican John Cox will appear next to him on that ballot. Newsom is occupying enough of the Democratic universe and Antonio Villaraigosa, John Chiang, and Delaine Eastin are splitting up enough of the other Democrat-leaning voters to keep the door open for a Republican. Most voters at this point have decided, albeit all of the candidate and independent spending on teevee that continues.

I usually don't watch local news, where most of this advertising is taking place. As I ate dinner at the local Chinese joint last night, I was amazed to see all the ads. As I like to talk about, voter communication has become a real challenge. People vote over multiple weeks, walk from the mailbox to the recycle bin, targeting is across the entire universe (including some automatically registered who will never vote), and the attention of voters is spread across TV (sometimes recorded and commercials are fast-forwarded through) and the Internet.

The best candidates are shoe-leather candidates, but you can't do that for governor. Although, Antonio Villaraigosa is trying. He is holding a 24-hour string of campaign events in Los Angeles today and tomorrow and the agenda is making me really hungry. I would ask why he's doing it in Los Angeles, but the only other city you could practically pull it off in is San Francisco, and LA allows Villaraigosa to highlight his time as mayor. And, with some of the biggest LA businessman running an independent expenditure campaign for him and with the largest region of votes, it makes sense. 

CA39 (Fullerton): Holy crap! Samantha Bee's Full Frontal had a segment on CA39 (Fullerton), where I grew up and Dad will be voting next week. Yeah, Bee went over the top in another segment, but praise for the segment on Northern Orange County.

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Capitol Seminars - learn how to lobby effectively
  • Job: Attorney General's Office is seeking a subject matter expert (advocate)
  • Job: Cargill Director of Governmental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: Randle Communications 
  • Job: The California Dental Association seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

 

  

 

Probolsky Research

 

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Sandra Chong, Brian Cooley, Claudia Perez Figueroa, Cortez Quinn, Dan Smith!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.
   
  • Former Los Angeles County Supervisors Zev Yaroslavsky and Yvonne Burke discuss the 50th anniversary of the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy in this exclusive interview:  https://vimeo.com/270776096
  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities consider Capitol Seminars their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars offer you comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, along with best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll refer to the extensive curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: June 7-8, July 26-27, October 4-5. More information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • Cal State Student Association seeks Legislative Policy Analyst
    The position is responsible for researching and analyzing legislative policy issues. Additionally, the position will be responsible for externally representing the organization in legislative meetings and committees. Lastly, the position will be responsible for advising our board of directors and legislative affairs committee. For more information and to apply, visit http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://apptrkr.com/1226018
  • Finance & Operations Manager
    California YIMBY is looking for an innovative, resourceful, inspired individual to serve as the Finance & Operations Manager to manage day-to-day finances and operations, act as internal authority on grant requirements, and create and track annual budget. Reports directly to the CEO. $65,000-$85,000/year DOE + benefits. http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://cayim.by/finopsmanager for details.

  • Digital Director
    California YIMBY is seeking an innovative, resourceful, inspired individual to serve as the Digital Director to create digital program to tell story of CA's housing crisis. Reports directly to the Chief Advocacy Officer. $75,000-$90,000/year DOE + benefits. http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://cayim.by/digdirector for details.

  • Organizing Director
    California YIMBY is seeking a motivated, tenacious, creative individual to serve as the Organizing Director to conceive large scale organizing strategy and develop, write and implement a comprehensive strategic organizing plan. Reports directly to the Chief Advocacy Officer. $75,000-$90,000/year DOE + benefits. cayim.by/orgdirector for details.

  • Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager to work across multiple teams providing management, coordination, and support needed to execute programs and initiatives. Ideal candidate is a self-starter, good writer, client service oriented, has an eye for detail, and believes in California’s local health plans’ mission. Salary BOE. Details.
  • Imprenta Communications Group Seeks Account Coordinator to Join Our Sacramento Office. Successful candidate will have 1-3 years previous experience working at a public relations agency, on political campaigns, political staff, or corporate marketing. The ideal candidate is a hard-working, professional, and dedicated individual seeking to empower communities of color. Spanish or Asian language fluency preferred. Full job description can be viewed here. Submit resume and cover letter to Ken Tiratira at ktiratira@icgworldwide.com for consideration.

  • Randle Communications is seeking a highly-motivated communications professional to support the firm’s growing public affairs practice. Ideal candidate has three – five years legislative/campaign experience, strong communication skills, is detail-oriented and a self-starter. Salary BOE.  E-mail resume, references, cover letter: info@randlecommunications.com
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.
  • SEIU-UHW – Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
    This position is responsible for working in close collaboration with multiple levels of staff and members to develop goals and execute plans for members participation in all areas of the political program and hard dollar fundraising.  Also provides staff support to our Political Action Advisory Committee, in collaboration with representational staff.  Candidate will train and mentor COPE chairs and member activists to help them achieve political goals.  Proven fundraising track record is a must.  Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.

Add your classified for $40/week.

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
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Teachers Find Public Support as Pay Campaign Goes to Voters
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In a survey, nearly three in four American adults said teachers’ salaries were too low. The sentiment crossed party lines, even if raises meant higher taxes.