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REMINDER: My regular email addresses are caught in DNS hell between my server and Google. Email me at scottlay@gmail.com instead of replying to this message. 

 

FROM THE TWITTERVERSE: @JoinTravisAllen: "We need to FLOOD THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH WATER," @JoinTravisAllen said in Fresno. "CA needs to build new water storage. We don't need to steal it from the north, we just need to store it when it rains and NOT LET IT WASH OUT UNDER THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE."

First, water raining in the Central Valley doesn't go out through the Golden Gate Bridge. 

Well, it won't really hurt him in the Bay Area, which is very much against the tunnels project, as he is only polling at 5% among likely voters there, according to the latest PPIC poll. He's at 10% overall, which is fourth behind (in order) Gavin Newsom (D)-26%, John Cox (R)-15%, and Antonio Villaraigosa (D)-13%. He polls at 0% among likely Democratic voters, which is something you almost never see in public polls.

It's too late for Travis to find a spot in the top two. He should have run for re-election to the Assembly, where he's eligible for three more terms, but handed the seat over to his district director Tyler Diep, which made a change of heart very difficult. He spent too much time raising money for his failed gas tax repeal (Carl DeMaio's more limited one qualified). 

TWENTY YEARS: On the twentieth anniversary of the Public Policy Institute of California's (PPIC) Statewide Survey, President and CEO Mark Baldassare and VP of Communications Abby Cook--who have worked on every survey--look back over the trends. Most remarkably was the change in mindset on same-sex marriage. In 2000, 55% opposed. In 2014, 56% favored.

For regular Nooner readers, you know I love to criticize polls. It's nothing against pollsters, many of whom I consider friends. There is no longer a truly good polling methodology. There are the crappy online polls (e.g. SurveyUSA). Then there are the random dial polls that rely on the respondent to say whether they are registered and likely to vote. 

With 27 candidates for governor, how the hell do you poll that? As I wrote yesterday, PPIC omitted Amanda Renteria and 20 other candidates. Not including Renteria probably bumped Antonio Villaraigosa (the other major Latino) and Delaine Eastin (the other major woman). Where this matters the most is the race for #2, which is between Villaraigosa and Republican John Cox

My judgment (I don't endorse or contribute anymore) is that it's Gavin Newsom clearly in the top spot and a real fight between Antonio Villaraigosa (D) and John Cox (R) for the second spot. Unless all of the polling (public and private) I have seen is way off, Chiang and Eastin are out of the running. Yes, the hate email will arrive shortly, but I read numbers. Amanda Renteria has zero chance and zero campaign, but hurts both Villaraigosa and Eastin. But, as people sit at home and look at 27 candidates for governor (69.4% vote-by-mail in 2014 primary), who knows what happens?

I still trust PPIC the most. It's all adults and then narrowed for likely voters on current elections. It uses live calls in English and Spanish. Still, polling is broken. I don't answer my cell phone (only phone) with unknown numbers and return voice mails. So, I'm not in any poll results, which makes many of you happy. But, it's a real problem that we have to face. There's no easy answer. As I write, I'm watching David Letterman interview people on Netflix. No political ads. I don't answer pollster calls. I'm definitely not alone. 

It's less of an issue for local races, including Assembly and State Senate. I can predict them with 95% confidence, the standard generally used in estimating margin of error in polling. But, statewide is something totally different. Newsom will be in the top two, but there is no way to predict who lands in #2. LiteGov? Eleni and Dr. Ed most likely, with Eleni the favorite in November. AG: Becerra and IC Dave Jones--which will be a close race in November.   

I slept in, so that's it for today! But, I'll be back tomorrow.

 

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Pepperdine University Leadership Awards

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Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Capitol Seminars - learn how to lobby effectively
  • Event: Equality California’s 2018 Sacramento Equality Awards - April 10
  • Job: Aaron Read and Associates - Legislative Assistant
  • Job: Cargill Director of Governmental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: The California Dental Association seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Healthcare Justice Phone & Digital Campaign Coordinator (Oakland, Los Angeles or Sacramento)
  • Job: CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representatives (Bay Area, LA North East, Orange, San Bernardino, San Joaquin North)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

Probolsky Research

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Tristan Brown, Debra Spector, and Founding Father Thomas Jefferson! Tommy, reportedly Lin-Manuel is working on a musical in your name, but you weren't into dueling.

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.
 

  

  • California Digital Campaigns Co-op is hosting a Free digital marketing seminar, Friday, April 20, 1:30 PM in the Eureka Room of the Capitol Basement.  Learn about Facebook's challenges, new developments in mobile apps and communicating public policy online.  For more information:  Joe@Advocacy.Marketing or www.eventbrite.com/e/digital-marketing-workshop-tickets-45148960757
  • Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator – The Council of State Governments, West (Sacramento, CA)
    The Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support, as well as providing support of the organization's international engagement efforts, particularly between CSG West members and policy stakeholders in Mexico and Canada. Individual must be bilingual (English/Spanish), with a high proficiency to read, write and speak in both languages. CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled) csg.applicantpro.com/jobs/765554.html

  • LOBBYING SUCCESS IS JUST A COUPLE OF CLICKS AWAY. Capitol Seminars offers you a cost-effective, comprehensive overview of what it takes to be more successful at lobbying in California. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, these invaluable seminars cover the processes, touch points and best practices of Legislative, Budget and Regulatory advocacy, Lobbying the Administration and Media Strategies. You'll learn how state government "really works" from an insider's perspective. Next dates are June 7-8 and July 26-27 at McGeorge School of Law and Policy. Information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009. Note: If you tried to register between March 24-30 and could not access our site, please try again. The bug has been squashed.

  • The California Attractions and Parks Association (CAPA) is seeking a qualified Executive Director. CAPA was founded in 2004 as a trade organization representing California's theme, amusement and water park industry. The Executive Director is CAPA's sole employee, whose efforts are focused on forming political coalitions, leveraging the legal, political and operational talent of its members, and supporting/opposing relevant legislation and regulation. Minimum 8 years serving on legislative staff, as a Capitol lobbyist, in-house government relations or equivalent experience. Please submit resumes to CAPA Chairperson Kris Reyes at pr@beachboardwalk.com no later than Friday, April 27. View full job description here.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
  • The California Attractions and Parks Association (CAPA), was founded in 2004 as a trade organization representing the theme, amusement and water park industry in California. The sole CAPA employee is the Executive Director, whose efforts are focused on forming political coalitions, leveraging the legal, political and operational talent of its members, and supporting or opposing relevant legislation and regulation. Minimum 8 years serving on legislative staff, as a Capitol lobbyist, in-house government relations professional or equivalent experience. Resumes must be submitted to CAPA Chairperson Kris Reyes at pr@beachboardwalk.com no later than Friday, April 27. View full job description here.

  • BREATHE LA is seeking a dynamic, creative and organized Manager of Public Policy and Advocacy to manage the organization’s legislative and government affairs, as well as advocacy campaigns and community outreach.  This position is full-time and based in Los Angeles. Salary DOE. Details here: breathela.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Mgr-of-Pub-Pol-Advocacy-Job-Description.pdf
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.
  • SEIU-UHW – Healthcare Justice Phone & Digital Campaign Coordinator (Oakland or Sacramento)
    This position will develop the union’s technological and human capacity to use the phone bank to contact and build relationships with hundreds of thousands of voters, healthcare workers and patients to win 2018 candidate races, ballot initiatives, political pressure, organizing and bargaining campaigns. Your work will contribute to the growth of our member leadership, our union, and the labor movement. It will transform the resistance into the revolution. The Healthcare Justice Phone and Digital Campaign Coordinator works closely with the political, data, technology and field teams but reports directly to the Healthcare Justice Campaign Director. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • Aaron Read and Associates
    2+ years of experience working in governmental affairs office; outstanding communication skills, working knowledge of legislative process, calendaring/arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel, Word. Capitol Track knowledge a plus. Salary based on experience. Send resume to: mshetler@aaronread.com

  • Director of Government Relations – Cargill (Newark – Bay Area)
    This position will develop and have primary responsibility for ensuring implementation for a government-relations, corporate responsibility, and communications strategy to support the Cargill Salt and Land Management businesses in the San Francisco Bay Area. The position will coordinate the businesses’ government relations, internal communications, external communications, corporate responsibility, and stakeholder outreach. Cargill has over 150 years of experience with 150,000 employees in 70 countries who are committed to feeding the world in a responsible way, reducing environmental impact and improving the communities where we live and work.

  • LEARN HOW TO LOBBY MORE EFFECTIVELY.  Capitol Seminars offers you a cost-effective, comprehensive overview of what it takes to be more successful at lobbying in California. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, these unique seminars cover the processes, touch points and best practices of Legislative, Budget and Regulatory advocacy, Lobbying the Administration and Media Strategies. Next dates are April 12-13, June 7-8, July 26-27 at McGeorge School of Law and Policy. Information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.

  • Equality California’s 2018 Sacramento Equality Awards, Crest Theatre, Tuesday, April 10 5:30-7:30 PM: Awards ceremony and cocktail reception to recognize LGBTQ leaders and allies. Honorees include: California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, "We Said Enough" co-founder Adama Iwu, LGBTQ leader Cathy Schwamberger, and The Capitol LGBTQ Association. Event co-chairs include: EQCA Board President Mandy Lee, EQCAI Vice-President Joe Gregorich, Assemblymember Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, Assemblymember David Chiu and Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin. Sponsorships and tickets available: www.eqca.org/equality-awards/sacramento/. For more info, contact Naseam Alavi, naseam@eqca.org, 323-848-9801

  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Just three miles from the Capitol, our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation knowledge of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy and sign-up for an information session or webinar, or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • The California Dental Association, an innovative membership-based organization that’s committed to the success of dental professionals, seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate to work in Sacramento office. To learn more about working at CDA, visit www.cda.org/careers

    This position: www.cda.org/AboutCDA/CareersatCDA/tabid/99/uc/info/ItemID/4803/Default.aspx

  • See Your Future Differently from Here with a Master of Public Policy degree from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Overlooking panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean from Malibu, our unique policy graduate program melds quantitative analysis with political philosophy, applied history, constitutional law, and strategy to prepare policy leaders for an impactful and successful career in the private sector, non-profit arena, and government service. Standardized test admission requirement is waived for legislative staffers. Learn more at publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/.

  • SAC LGBT COMMUNITY CENTER - Resident house manager (Sacramento)
    The Resident House Manager is responsible for all aspects of resident supervision in the transitional living program for LGBTQ youth (18- 24) victims of crime. This includes supervising resident activities, maintaining a safe and supportive atmosphere, ensuring residents adhere to programs rules, and complete their chores. The Resident House Manager lives on site at the house with residents and will be provided with a private room. This position reports to the Youth Programs Manager and works in partnership with other programming staff and stakeholders as well as directly with community members of diverse backgrounds. This position is a live-in position. The working hours will be 6 days a week generally from 6 to 10 p.m with limited on-call status. This is a part-time, non-exempt position.
    [More info]
  • SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Osklsnd or Sacramento)
    This position is responsible for a range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box.  Proven track record is a must.  Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_BayArea.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (LA-North East) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_LANorthEast.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

    Details:www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_Orange.aspx 
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Bernardino) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanBernardino.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

Details: www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanJoaquinNorth.aspx

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