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Hello there! It appears my email problems have been resolved. I forward all my email to Gmail and I have a new debit card number so I had to change digits for the enhanced storage.  My wifi problems, though, are still a challenge.  

LEGISLATORS GONE WILD: Legislative spring break starts after session today.

POLL POSITION: PPIC finds not much movement in the governor's race now the have ballot labels among likely voters. 

Governor (likely voters):

  • 28% Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, Lieutenant Governor/businessman
  • 14 John Cox, a Republican, businessman
  • 12 Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, public policy advisor
  • 10 Travis Allen, a Republican, California Assemblyman/businessman
  • 6 John Chiang, a Democrat, California State Treasurer
  • 5 Delaine Eastin, a Democrat, educator/youth advocate
  • 1 someone else (specify)
  • 24 don’t know

Because of her late entrance, Amanda Renteria was not included in the polling.

I'm not providing much commentary today as I go through crosstabs. Meanwhile, each campaign is sending me their spins. First glance, Newsom overwhelms all other candidates with 53% in the SF Bay Area and is essentially tied with Villaraigosa in Los Angeles. Newsom also leads in the traditionally conservative Central Valley. Of course, Sacramento is a big part of that.

Newsom essentially leads across the board by geography and demographics. To make it clear, I don't endorse or contribute to candidates anymore since I write. 

Villaraigosa obviously outpolls among Latino voters (37%), but Newsom still pulls 19% of the constituency. For John Chiang, who has very strong support in the Asian-American community, it's less clear. Asians were grouped as "Other" at 10% of likelies. Asian-Americans (which has gotten much more complicated to define) are 12% of likely voters, according to PPIC last year. Huge generational shift as historically conservative populations shift. Vietnamese-Americans of the previous generation were largely Republican because of the political history; new registrants, not so much.

I love Delaine Eastin, but she's only polling 7% of the female respondents while Gavin is on top in the demographic (no jokes) with 27%.

John Myers tweets "Check out the crosstab glimpse of voter subsets in tonight's @PPICnotes governor's race poll. Striking from my view is that Newsom is +17 with moderates over Villaraigosa. For a candidate who's embraced a panopoly of liberal policy ideas to be doing that well is fascinating."

The spinning is cray-cray. We're 75 days away and the time is running out. 

U.S. Senate (likely voters):

  • 42% Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, US Senator
  • 16 Kevin de León, a Democrat, California Senator
  • 2 someone else (specify)
  • 39 don’t know

71% of GOP respondents don't know what the hell to do with US Senate. Blame that on the California Republican Party who couldn't even recruit a termed out legislator to run. Meanwhile, Assemblymember Rocky Chávez is running for Issa's congressional seat and having $50/person fundraisers. I love the guy for his service to the nation and community colleges, but seriously?

Generic congressional (likely voters):

  • 39% Rep/lean Rep
  • 53 Dem/lean Dem
  • 8 don’t know

The shizsnet doesn't look good...

Donald Trump approval (all adults):

  • 30% approve
  • 65 disapprove
  • 5 don’t know

Generally, few California residents cares for the 202.

Recent US tax law:

  • 30% approve
  • 61 disapprove
  • 10 don’t know

Yeah, don't run on that.

Border wall:

  • 25% favor
  • 71 oppose
  • 3 don’t know

Expensive and screwing legal border trade. Remember...we send guns to Mexico. No legal sales in Mexico so we are the smugglers.

Top issues  (likely voters):

  • 23% immigration, illegal immigration
  • 10 guns, gun control
  • 8 education, schools, teachers
  • 8 jobs, economy 8 state budget, deficit, taxes

Education is still low. Immigration is complicated because the interviewers have to categorize. It could be anti-immigration or pro-immigration/DACA, but the poll can't identify that. Really, only a focus group can hone in on it.

If on the ballot...mostly bondage questions:

Affordable housing bond (all adults):

  • 64% yes
  • 31 no
  • 5 don’t know

Water bond  (all adults):

  • 66% yes
  • 26 no
  • 8 don’t know

Water tunnels  (all adults): 

  • 48% very important
  • 30 somewhat important
  • 6 not too important
  • 10 not at all important
  • 6 don’t know

High-speed rail (all adults):

  • 53% favor
  • 19 oppose, but would favor if it cost less
  • 24 oppose, even if it cost less
  • 4 don’t know

[n=1,244 adults (MOE +/-3.4%), n=1404 registered voters (MOE +/-3.7%), n=931 likely voters (MOE +/-4.5%), March 7-13, live calls English/Spanish]

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Capitol Seminars - learn how to lobby effectively
  • Event: Equality California’s 2018 Sacramento Equality Awards - April 10
  • Job: Cargill Director of Govermental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: The California Dental Association seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate
  • Job: Equality California seeks a field organizater
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representatives (Bay Area, LA North East, Orange, San Bernardino, San Joaquin North)
  • Space: Aprea and Micheli has a sublet
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

More tomorrow as I stew on these data. I don't take raw data, but rather stew on it.

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday Trevor O'Neil!

 


 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scott@scottlay.com for $40/week.
 

 

  • Director of Government Relations – Cargill (Newark – Bay Area)
    This position will develop and have primary responsibility for ensuring implementation for a government-relations, corporate responsibility, and communications strategy to support the Cargill Salt and Land Management businesses in the San Francisco Bay Area. The position will coordinate the businesses’ government relations, internal communications, external communications, corporate responsibility, and stakeholder outreach. Cargill has over 150 years of experience with 150,000 employees in 70 countries who are committed to feeding the world in a responsible way, reducing environmental impact and improving the communities where we live and work.

  • LEARN HOW TO LOBBY MORE EFFECTIVELY.  Capitol Seminars offers you a cost-effective, comprehensive overview of what it takes to be more successful at lobbying in California. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, these unique seminars cover the processes, touch points and best practices of Legislative, Budget and Regulatory advocacy, Lobbying the Administration and Media Strategies. Next dates are April 12-13, June 7-8, July 26-27 at McGeorge School of Law and Policy. Information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.

  • Equality California is the nation’s largest statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization. EQCA brings the voices of LGBTQ people and allies to institutions of power in California, striving to create a world that is healthy, just, and fully equal for all LGBTQ people. EQCA is seeking a motivated Field Organizer to execute our 2018 health advocacy and LGBTQ pride programming in Sacramento.  The Field Organizer will help lead EQCA’s community organizing efforts, build relationships with LGBTQ and allied organizations, recruit volunteers and coordinate a variety of events including LGBTQ Prides and health centered events. To apply: www.eqca.org/fieldorganizer-sac/
  • Equality California’s 2018 Sacramento Equality Awards, Crest Theatre, Tuesday, April 10 5:30-7:30 PM: Awards ceremony and cocktail reception to recognize LGBTQ leaders and allies. Honorees include: California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, "We Said Enough" co-founder Adama Iwu, LGBTQ leader Cathy Schwamberger, and The Capitol LGBTQ Association. Event co-chairs include: EQCA Board President Mandy Lee, EQCAI Vice-President Joe Gregorich, Assemblymember Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, Assemblymember David Chiu and Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin. Sponsorships and tickets available: www.eqca.org/equality-awards/sacramento/. For more info, contact Naseam Alavi, naseam@eqca.org, 323-848-9801

  • Class A Office Space Available on L Street, across from Capitol.  One well-furnished executive office & assistant station.  Great views of Capitol.  Use of in-suite 10-person conference room, kitchen & color printer/copier.  $1,500/mo.  Contact Michael Daft @ 916.448.3075 or mdaft@apreamicheli.com
  • Equality California is the nation’s largest statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization. EQCA brings the voices of LGBTQ people and allies to institutions of power in California, striving to create a world that is healthy, just, and fully equal for all LGBTQ people. EQCA is seeking a motivated Field Organizer to execute our 2018 health advocacy and LGBTQ pride programming in Sacramento. The Field Organizer will help lead EQCA’s community organizing efforts, build relationships with LGBTQ and allied organizations, recruit volunteers and coordinate a variety of events including LGBTQ Prides and health centered events. To apply: www.eqca.org/fieldorganizer-sac/
  • SEIU-UHW – Healthcare Justice Phone & Digital Campaign Coordinator (Oakland, Los Angeles or Sacramento)
    This position will develop the union’s technological and human capacity to use the phone bank to contact and build relationships with hundreds of thousands of voters, healthcare workers and patients to win 2018 candidate races, ballot initiatives, political pressure, organizing and bargaining campaigns. Your work will contribute to the growth of our member leadership, our union, and the labor movement. It will transform the resistance into the revolution. The Healthcare Justice Phone and Digital Campaign Coordinator works closely with the political, data, technology and field teams but reports directly to the Healthcare Justice Campaign Director. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
    Can you research and write like a journalist and edit like an English teacher? Are you hyper-focused on the details? Do you have superpowers when using Microsoft Excel, Power Point and Word? The Research Analyst is responsible for facilitating market and opinion research projects (both qualitative and quantitative) from proposal development to project fulfillment, through to final research deliverables. About Probolsky Research: We are market and opinion researchers with corporate, election, government and non-profit clients. We are passionate about accuracy, data security and brining numbers alive through dynamic presentations and storytelling. Details at: www.ziprecruiter.com/jobs/probolsky-research-eeb2d5f1/research-analyst-public-opinion-f222e60c or email a cover letter and resume in one PDF document to jobs@probolskyresearch.com.

  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Just three miles from the Capitol, our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation knowledge of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy and sign-up for an information session or webinar, or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • The California Dental Association, an innovative membership-based organization that’s committed to the success of dental professionals, seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate to work in Sacramento office. To learn more about working at CDA, visit www.cda.org/careers

    This position: www.cda.org/AboutCDA/CareersatCDA/tabid/99/uc/info/ItemID/4803/Default.aspx

  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • See Your Future Differently from Here with a Master of Public Policy degree from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Overlooking panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean from Malibu, our unique policy graduate program melds quantitative analysis with political philosophy, applied history, constitutional law, and strategy to prepare policy leaders for an impactful and successful career in the private sector, non-profit arena, and government service. Standardized test admission requirement is waived for legislative staffers. Learn more at publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/.

  • SAC LGBT COMMUNITY CENTER - Resident house manager (Sacramento)
    The Resident House Manager is responsible for all aspects of resident supervision in the transitional living program for LGBTQ youth (18- 24) victims of crime. This includes supervising resident activities, maintaining a safe and supportive atmosphere, ensuring residents adhere to programs rules, and complete their chores. The Resident House Manager lives on site at the house with residents and will be provided with a private room. This position reports to the Youth Programs Manager and works in partnership with other programming staff and stakeholders as well as directly with community members of diverse backgrounds. This position is a live-in position. The working hours will be 6 days a week generally from 6 to 10 p.m with limited on-call status. This is a part-time, non-exempt position.
    [More info]
  • SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box.  Proven track record is a must.  Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_BayArea.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (LA-North East) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_LANorthEast.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

    Details:www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_Orange.aspx 
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Bernardino) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanBernardino.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

Details: www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanJoaquinNorth.aspx

 

 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
In Her Historic Rise To California Senate Leader, Toni Atkins Brings Hope For A Calmer Era In The Capitol
George Skelton @
latimes.com
But, after all, women have only been allowed to vote in California for 107 years.

Prince Gavin Surges Past Tony V; Difi Steady « Calbuzz
calbuzz.com
U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein has locked in her lead in the race for Senate over her Democratic challenger, Senate president pro tem Kevin de Leon, continuing to crush him across the board, including among Latino likely voters. The survey found Feinstein ahead 42-16%, including a 41-22% margin among Latinos.

New Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins Pledges Change In The Capitol On Sexual Misconduct
John Myers @
latimes.com
Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins used her inaugural speech on Wednesday to make a direct promise for changing the culture of the statehouse when it comes to workplace behavior.

2 SF supervisors ask if mayor has conflict of interest in police union talks

Two city supervisors — including mayoral candidate London Breed — and dozens of members of the public raised questions Wednesday about whether Mayor Mark Farrell has a conflict of interest in handling closed-door contract negotiations with the city’s police union. Supervisor Malia Cohen blasted the mayor at a Government Audit and Oversight Committee hearing that she had called, criticizing him for supporting Proposition H, the controversial police Taser measure on the June ballot, and his retention of police union spokesman Nathan Ballard as an adviser. “I’m very concerned that Nate Ballard was a consultant to the Police Officer’s Association,” Cohen said.

California Republican Party Is Dying, Schwarzenegger Says | The Sacramento Bee
Alexei Koseff @
sacbee.com
"Today we are the Titanic, after it hit the iceberg, but before the last bit of the ship submerged," Schwarzenegger said. "But unlike the Titanic, we might be able to save Leonardo DiCaprio before he goes under."

Rep. Mimi Walters Was The Only House Member Who Reported Using Cambridge Analytica Data In 2016 Election
latimes.com
The firm, which has been facing a storm of scrutiny for using allegedly ill-gotten Facebook data on millions of the site’s users, also provided data for the campaigns of two Republican senators. 

Sacramento Police Release Stephon Clark Shooting Footage | The Sacramento Bee
Anita Chabria, Benjy Egel And Nashelly Chavez @
sacbee.com
Covering crime, police and courts in the Sacramento region

Ex-SF political consultant to lose law license after child porn conviction

Once-prominent San Francisco political consultant Juan Enrique Pearce is due to lose his license to practice law next week after serving a jail sentence for possessing child pornography. Pearce, 44, had lucrative consulting contracts with a number of San Francisco politicians, including the late Mayor Ed Lee. But his career ended after police raided his McAllister Street apartment in the Tenderloin in 2015. Prosecutors said officers found more than 600 photos and videos of minors engaged in sexual conduct, including images of infants being held down and raped. He pleaded guilty in December 2016 to possession and distribution of child pornography.

Inmate Dead In Cell For 2 Or 3 Days; Staff Blamed Smell On Sewer - The San Diego Union-tribune
Teri Figueroa @
sandiegouniontribune.com


Proposal To Put Armed Peace Officers On All California School Campuses Advances In Assembly
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
Armed law enforcement officers would be assigned to all school campuses in California at state expense under a measure that advanced Wednesday in response to a series of recent mass shootings across the country.

Senate Passes Sex Trafficking Bill In Defeat For Weakened Tech Industry - Politico

It's targeted at sites like Backpage.com, the subject of a long-running Senate investigation, which was accused of hosting ads that promoted the trafficking of minors. | Getty

School Police, Law Enforcement Worked Overtime As They Chased A Month's Worth Of Threats - The San Diego Union-tribune
Karen Kucher @
sandiegouniontribune.com


House Passes $1.3 Trillion Spending Bill; Focus Shifts to Senate as Clock Ticks
THOMAS KAPLAN @

Government funding is set to expire at midnight Friday, and the Senate’s approval is still needed to avert what would be the third government shutdown of the year.

Davis To Regulate Hi-tech Surveillance - Capradio.org
Steve Milne @
capradio.org
Capital Public Radio, Inc.7055 Folsom BoulevardSacramento, CA 95826