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Happy International Women's Day, and thank you to all the strong voices who are changing the Capitol community, the workforce, and our society.

International Women's Day 2018

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:  

  • CA04 (Foothills): added businessman Robert Lawton (D)
  • CA07 (East Sacto County): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • CA39 (Fullerton): changed from Toss-up to Leans Republican
  • CA44 (Carson): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers]
  • CA48 (Huntington Beach): changed from Leans Democrat to Toss-up
  • CA48 (Huntington Beach): added attorney Scott Baugh (R)
  • AD67 (Murietta): removed Jorge Lopez (NPP)

 

MADD (Mutually Assured Democratic Destruction)

CA48 (Huntington Beach): Yesterday, former Assembly Republican Leader and Orange County Republican Party chair Scott Baugh (R) pulled papers and paid the nonrefundable $1,740 filing fee for the seat currently held by Dana Rohrabacher. He has reportedly been waiting for Rohrabacher's retirement, which is not happening. Baugh enters the race with $545,403 already in a congressional account. That puts him in a competitive position and has the Dems worried. 

Polling done for Fight Back CA PAC, which is focused on flipping 7 seats for the Democrats, finds that, with Baugh in the race, there's a distinct possibility of another competitive district with two Republicans advancing to November. Three Democrats are shown to be competitive and each have plenty of dough--Hans Keirstead ($490k), Harley Rouda ($847k), and Omar Siddiqui ($540k).

In the polling, Rohrabacher leads, and Baugh is basically tied with the top two Democrats, and he hasn't done any campaigning. 

For that reason, I've moved the district from Leans Democrat to Toss-up, although Leans Republican might be more appropriate--of just a "Top-Two WTF?"

The other district where two Republicans have a strong shot at making it to November is CA39 (Fullerton), where former state senator Bob Huff, former Assemblymember Young Kim, OC supervisor Shawn Nelson and three lesser known candidates are battling it out for the Republicans.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, there are Mt. San Antonio CCD Jay Chen, former naval officer Gil Cisneros, clean energy executive Sam Jammal, education consultant Phil Janowicz, businessman Andy Thorburn, pediatrician Mai-Khanh Tran are competing strongly, and there are six other Democrats that are expect to complete filing by next Wednesday. 

Two NPP candidates are also expected to complete filing. 

So, in CA39, we're looking at those likely to file:

  • Democrats: 6 major, 6 underdogs
  • Republicans: 3 major, 3 underdogs
  • NPP: 3

The DCCC has been working overtime to narrow the Democratic field, but have been unsuccessful. One reason is the amount of personal money on the table. 

If we look at the 2014 gubernatorial, it was Jerry Brown (D) 44.5% and Neil Kashkari (R) 55.5%. Let's assume that there's no cross-over voting (of course, there will be) and the make-up is the same as the last midterm (general, primary will be lower) and there has been a shift in share of registrations of +2% for Democrats, -3.39% for Republicans, and +2.43% for NPP).

That's, on average, 3.7% per candidate for the Democrats and 9.2% for Republicans. If you take the "major" candidates, it's 7.4% per candidate for Dems and 18.5% for Reps. 

Remember, filing for CA39 is in Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino counties. Take that in consideration if you're a geek looking the county candidate filing logs.

Yeah, that's pretty ugly. Mutually Assured Democratic Destruction.

I don't include financials for CA39 because they are misleading, as Ed Royce announced his retirement after the 12/31 close of the filing period, so many candidates jumped in after.

DEM $$$: The Super PAC House Majority PAC, which spends money to elect Democrats, announced this morning that it was reserving $43 million in airtime for the November election. In California, this includes:

  • Los Angeles, CA: $5,215,000
  • Sacramento, CA: $1,540,000
  • San Diego, CA: $1,242,000 

The PAC doesn't play in primaries, so they're just buying ad space while it's cheaper. They can cancel and move it around later if necessary, although the closer to the November election, the more expensive it is. The PAC is mostly DCCC alums, and is seen largely as a parallel where big donors can max to the DCCC ("D-trip" to those in the know) at $33,900/year, and also provide unlimited funds to the House Majority PAC.

The Los Angeles buy is likely for CA25 (Knight-Santa Clarita/Antelope) and Orange County, which is in the L.A. media market (for broadcasting). They don't specify whether the buys are broadcast or cable. Obviously cable allows more narrowcasting and is cheaper, although evening and late night news shows are still considered the most influential with swing voters. 

In Orange County, there is CA39 (Open-Fullerton), CA45 (Walters-Irvine), CA48 (Rohrabacher-Huntington Beach), and CA49 (Open-Oceanside).

In Sacramento, there is CA04 (McClintock-Foothills), CA07 (Bera-East Sacto County), and CA10 (Denham-Stanislaus).  

In San Diego, there is CA49 (Open-Oceanside) - splits between southern Orange County and northern San Diego County and CA50 (Hunter-East SD County). 

The committee had only $11.6 million on hand on January 31, so they need to have strong fundraising to meet their appetite. In the 2016 cycle, the committee raised $55.9 million, so it's a reasonable plan.  

SD28 (Coachella Valley): There is buzz that State Senator Jeff Stone (R) is not running and may try to hand the keys over to staff member Glen Miller (R). Filing for Stone is 5pm tomorrow, so this will be the page to watch.

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: The California Dental Association seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representatives (Bay Area, LA North East, Orange, San Bernardino, San Joaquin North)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Ugh, I am exhausted after just working on elections and my time is running short, so let's just have some bullets:

  • Donald Trump will be visiting the "border wall" prototypes in Chula Vista and hitting the Beverly Hills ATM on Tuesday, reports  Noah Bierman in the Times.
  • Trump is expected to make an announcement this afternoon on the steel and aluminum tariffs. He hinted on Twitter that Canada and Mexico could be exempted or have a lower tariff, although that may not be legal. 
  • Attorney General Jeff Sessions is out of California and now the work begins for California Department of Justice lawyers, who have 19 days left to file a response, although it may be 20 days, as it's unclear whether the state was served on Tuesday or yesterday, since the court filing was at 6pm Tuesday.
  • For the Times, Melanie Mason reports that the investigation into Senator Bob Hertzberg (D-Van Nuys) found that his hugs were not of a sexual nature, but in some cases were unwanted. He gets a warning. If you see him today and you so desire, open your arms first and give him a big hug. If I was in the building today, it would be my delight.
  • The Bee's Billy Kobin delivers good news to the Capitol community. A replacement restaurant, The Diplomat Steakhouse, is opening later this month in the space formerly occupied by Chops across from the Capitol on 11th Street between K and L. For the old schoolers, I learned the Capitol during those late night budget sessions at Brannan's, which previously occupied that spot, under the tutelage of Bonnie Slosson and the late, great John Mockler, and many others.
  • California added 35,500 non-farm jobs in January, dropping the unemployment rate to 4.4% (-0.1%). Year-over year is 2.4%, and the unemployment rate is at the lowest since the data series was created by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics since 1976.

    The lowest unemployment rates are in San Mateo (2.4%), San Francisco (2.6%), Orange (3.1%), and Alameda (3.3%). Of course, that's also where housing costs have grown the most. 

    The highest unemployment rates are in Colusa (18.5%), Imperial (17.0%), Tulare (10.9%). These numbers are not seasonally adjusted and reflect the dominant influence of agriculture on the economy, which obviously has less activity in January.

 

Probolsky Research

 

 

QOTD: Is it better to be impeached for lying about getting a BJ from an intern adjacent the Oval Office or lying about an affair with a porn star and paying hush money to keep "still images" and "text messages" secret? Asking for a friend...

To think that Anthony Wiener's political career was ruined for much less. 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Gonzalo Juarez and Tara McGee!

 


 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scott@scottlay.com for $40/week.
 
  • SEIU-UHW – Healthcare Justice Phone & Digital Campaign Coordinator (Oakland, Los Angeles or Sacramento)
    This position will develop the union’s technological and human capacity to use the phone bank to contact and build relationships with hundreds of thousands of voters, healthcare workers and patients to win 2018 candidate races, ballot initiatives, political pressure, organizing and bargaining campaigns. Your work will contribute to the growth of our member leadership, our union, and the labor movement. It will transform the resistance into the revolution. The Healthcare Justice Phone and Digital Campaign Coordinator works closely with the political, data, technology and field teams but reports directly to the Healthcare Justice Campaign Director. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
    Can you research and write like a journalist and edit like an English teacher? Are you hyper-focused on the details? Do you have superpowers when using Microsoft Excel, Power Point and Word? The Research Analyst is responsible for facilitating market and opinion research projects (both qualitative and quantitative) from proposal development to project fulfillment, through to final research deliverables. About Probolsky Research: We are market and opinion researchers with corporate, election, government and non-profit clients. We are passionate about accuracy, data security and brining numbers alive through dynamic presentations and storytelling. Details at: www.ziprecruiter.com/jobs/probolsky-research-eeb2d5f1/research-analyst-public-opinion-f222e60c or email a cover letter and resume in one PDF document to jobs@probolskyresearch.com.

  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Just three miles from the Capitol, our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation knowledge of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy and sign-up for an information session or webinar, or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • The California Dental Association, an innovative membership-based organization that’s committed to the success of dental professionals, seeks full-time Associate Legislative Advocate to work in Sacramento office. To learn more about working at CDA, visit www.cda.org/careers

    This position: www.cda.org/AboutCDA/CareersatCDA/tabid/99/uc/info/ItemID/4803/Default.aspx

  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • See Your Future Differently from Here with a Master of Public Policy degree from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Overlooking panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean from Malibu, our unique policy graduate program melds quantitative analysis with political philosophy, applied history, constitutional law, and strategy to prepare policy leaders for an impactful and successful career in the private sector, non-profit arena, and government service. Standardized test admission requirement is waived for legislative staffers. Learn more at publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/.

  • SAC LGBT COMMUNITY CENTER - Resident house manager (Sacramento)
    The Resident House Manager is responsible for all aspects of resident supervision in the transitional living program for LGBTQ youth (18- 24) victims of crime. This includes supervising resident activities, maintaining a safe and supportive atmosphere, ensuring residents adhere to programs rules, and complete their chores. The Resident House Manager lives on site at the house with residents and will be provided with a private room. This position reports to the Youth Programs Manager and works in partnership with other programming staff and stakeholders as well as directly with community members of diverse backgrounds. This position is a live-in position. The working hours will be 6 days a week generally from 6 to 10 p.m with limited on-call status. This is a part-time, non-exempt position.
    [More info]
  • SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box.  Proven track record is a must.  Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_BayArea.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (LA-North East) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_LANorthEast.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

    Details:www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_Orange.aspx 
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Bernardino) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanBernardino.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

Details: www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanJoaquinNorth.aspx

 

 

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Rep. Himes Calls Trump's Tariff Plan 'backward-looking' - Politico

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