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CCST Science and Technology Week

 

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • CA50 (East San Diego County): moved from Likely Republican to Toss-up 

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: SAC LGBT COMMUNITY CENTER - Resident house manager (Sacramento)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Assistant Director, Government Relations (Sacramento)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representatives (Bay Area, LA North East, Orange, San Bernardino, San Joaquin North)
  • Traning: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels

 

Happy Sunday! I may be a bit short today as I speak to a group of young professionals about this year's elections. Plus, you're probably looking forward to a short Nooner after the deluge the last few days.

After the jump, a look at why I moved CA50 from "Likely Republican" to "Toss-up," even though the candidate field hasn't changed. Congressman Duncan Hunter is a serious risk, and his fellow House Republicans and their staff are openly talking about it (off the record).

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

On CA50, certainly my two-step move from "Likely Republican" to "Toss-up" will raise eyebrows. I've been watching and thinking about it for awhile, and I take these things very seriously. This is a fundamentally safe Republican district on paper. Trump beat Clinton here by 16 points, Kashkari over Brown in 2014 by 28 points, and Hunter won re-election by 27 points in 2016.

However, candidates matter. I make the change based on year-end financial reports and a story this week by Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan for Politico.

Federal prosecutors have subpoenaed [Congressman Duncan] Hunter’s parents, as well as a female lobbyist with whom many people close to the congressman believe he had a romantic relationship, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the investigation.

The Justice Department is trying to determine whether hundreds of thousands of dollars from Hunter’s campaign account were spent improperly on his family and friends. Hunter already sold his home to pay back what even he now acknowledges were improper charges, moving his wife and kids in with his parents while he mostly lives in his Capitol Hill office.

Three people with knowledge of the probe told POLITICO that Hunter's wife, Margaret, who acted as his campaign manager, is at the center of the FBI inquiry. Many of the alleged campaign charges in question — including tuition payments for their children’s schooling and dozens of restaurant meals where no donor appeared to be present — were made by Margaret Hunter, those people said.

But Hunter is also under intense scrutiny by the FBI and federal prosecutors. Federal agents have questioned his former staffers about whether thousands of dollars spent at Washington restaurants were legitimate campaign expenditures. They’ve also inquired about his relationships with several women in Washington, including one who worked in his office.

“He’s enjoyed his time in Washington — probably a little too much,” said one House Republican lawmaker who has known Hunter for years but wants him to retire in order to protect the seat. “His wife supposedly had the campaign credit card, but that’s not an excuse. You can’t just blame your wife.

In an interview Monday, Hunter denied ever knowingly using campaign funds for personal expense.

“Nah, I know the rules,” he said. “And if I did, it was an accident and I paid it back.”

In Hunter's year-end financial report, we find that the five-term congressman raised $427,513 in 2017--38th among congressional incumbents. Meanwhile, he spent $717,790, the eighth highest amount by an incumbent lawmaker. 

He ended the year with $290,904, 39th amount the 53 incumbent members of the California congressional delegation. Only one House GOP incumbent (Doug LaMalfa) had less on hand.

Of the expenditures, $178,168 were spent on legal services. That's not for campaign filings (they are reported spent with another firm), but actual shoe leather and paper-pushing. In other words, 24.8% of his campaign donors' dough were to save his ass, or 41.7% of the money he took in.

Meanwhile, as the investigations continued, the spending on "food/beverages" did as well.

  • $486 at Bull Feathers, a popular watering hole a couple of blocks from the Capitol (9/11 twice, 9/14)
  • Pechanga Casino: $81.33, $87.25, and $70, all on 10/23'
  • Red Ocotillo: on the same day as the three Pechanga items, $278 is reported at the Borrego Springs restaurant, which is half-way between his parents' home in Alpine and Pechanga.
  • Capitol Hill Club: $1,511 on and $1,630, coded as "food/beverage" and not "fundraiser." It suggests the payment of accrued tabs. The club is a block from Hunter's Rayburn office across from the Capitol South Metro station for those familiar with the Hill. Politico reports:

    "Hunter has developed a reputation on Capitol Hill for drinking heavily and carousing, according to multiple lawmakers and staffers who have witnessed his behavior over the past several years.

    "Former staffers to Hunter said he and his lawmaker friends — dubbed the "bros caucus” by his aides — would regularly go to the Capitol Hill Club, a Republican hangout, to drink beer, sometimes during the day. Congressional aides have recounted to POLITICO at least two stories of recent official meetings where lawmakers questioned whether Hunter was intoxicated."

  • During an investigative on trip to a Coast Guard station in Kodiak, AK, he reports $520 in three transactions at Mecca Lounge on 8/14.
  • He also has large expenditures at restaurants in San Diego and a cigar lounge in Temecula. Both Pechanga and the cigar lounge are in his district, and they are all categorized as food/beverage.
  • Food/beverage is acceptable for documented campaign purposes, but the recent expenses amplify negatives for Hunter, as I'm told by House GOP sources. None of them are direct supporters of another GOP possible candidate but are worried about losing the seat. 

These all follow the well publicized repayments of $12,000 in 2016 that included payments to his children's charter school and a oral/facial surgeon, surf and skate shop, and a garage door company reports the SDUT.

Let me be clear. I don't write this as a takedown for partisan purposes. I don't know Duncan Jr. or his father and know of good work both of them have done for the district.

This, though, is what's being talked about on The Hill and among the interest groups funding independent committees that are expected to supplement his abysmal cash position and are sweating losing an otherwise safe seat.

The problems are that Hunter doesn't appear to be budging and that there are only 26 days to file for the June 5 primary, or 31 days if Hunter bows out. Further, the only Republican candidate who is rumored as a possibility is Darrell Issa, who is retiring from the neighboring CA49 and would be labeled for living outside the district (although that's the case with many candidates this cycle of both major parties). However, he does at least have name ID and plenty of money.

The leading Democrat, Ammar Campa-Najjar, has $290k on hand after $520k in 2017. Those are contributions, not a personal loan that has bouyed the numbers of many Democratic challengers across the state. And most are small dollar amounts through ActBlue contributions, rather than contributors who have hit the $2,700 per election cap or the $5,000 per year cap on PACs. That means he can keep going back to the well, and some of these are likely on automatic monthly payments.

Right now, I have to look at it objectively with the facts in front of me. If Issa gets in and Hunter heads to the sunset, it probably moves to Leans Republican, but I don't see it moving back to Likely Republican this cycle.

 

Probolsky Research

 

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#METOO: Joe Garafoli reports in the Chron the intersection of the gubernatorial campaign and the movement to address sexual harassment and other misconduct. 

Republican gubernatorial candidate Assemblyman Travis Allen, R-Huntington Beach, was named in a report outlining sexual misconduct complaints against legislators.
In politics, a candidate’s past never goes away — especially when it involves his sexual history.

That’s one reason three of the men in the nearly all-male field of candidates running for governor — Democratic front-runners Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, as well as GOP Assemblyman Travis Allen — are spending a lot of time responding to concerns about their inappropriate sexual behavior, which in some cases happened a decade ago.

SCOCAL: For the LA TIMES, John Myers writes that one of the most important nominations that Governor Jerry Brown has had eleven months to make still hasn't been done, and the clock is ticking. Following Pete Wilson nominee Kathryn Werdeger retired in August the Supreme Court of California has had a only six members as it faces several big cases, writes Myers.

TAXES AND PENSIONS: Dan Walters writes for CALmatters says that cities need to face up to the intersection of the increasing cost of pensions and local tax proposals. I'm working on a longer piece of this complicated issue, so I won't write more now.

Enjoy your Sunday! Go TEAM USA!

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Joel Anderson and Lucy Dunn!

 


 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scott@scottlay.com for $40/week.
 
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • See Your Future Differently from Here with a Master of Public Policy degree from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Overlooking panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean from Malibu, our unique policy graduate program melds quantitative analysis with political philosophy, applied history, constitutional law, and strategy to prepare policy leaders for an impactful and successful career in the private sector, non-profit arena, and government service. Standardized test admission requirement is waived for legislative staffers. Learn more at publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/.

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Just three miles from the Capitol, our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation knowledge of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy and sign-up for an information session or webinar, or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • SAC LGBT COMMUNITY CENTER - Resident house manager (Sacramento)
    The Resident House Manager is responsible for all aspects of resident supervision in the transitional living program for LGBTQ youth (18- 24) victims of crime. This includes supervising resident activities, maintaining a safe and supportive atmosphere, ensuring residents adhere to programs rules, and complete their chores. The Resident House Manager lives on site at the house with residents and will be provided with a private room. This position reports to the Youth Programs Manager and works in partnership with other programming staff and stakeholders as well as directly with community members of diverse backgrounds. This position is a live-in position. The working hours will be 6 days a week generally from 6 to 10 p.m with limited on-call status. This is a part-time, non-exempt position.
    [More info]
  • SEIU-UHW -- Assistant Director, Government Relations (Sacramento)
    This position will lead our governmental advocacy program with members of the California Legislature, members of Congress and otheelected officials to persuade them to support or oppose legislation or regulation on behalf of SEIU-UHW. The Director would be responsible for overseeing all aspects of major projects and programs within the department, directing the work of multiple staff, contractors and member leaders in support of objectives. This position reports to the Political Director and works with senior staff in the overall development and implementation of the department's strategic organizational plan. Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.

  • SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box.  Proven track record is a must.  Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_BayArea.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (LA-North East) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_LANorthEast.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

    Details:www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_Orange.aspx 
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Bernardino) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanBernardino.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanJoaquinNorth.aspx

 


 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
White House Floats An Offer To Keep Legal Immigration At 1 Million Per Year Instead Of Cutting It
Brian Bennett @
latimes.com
President Trump has proposed a series of measures, including restrictions on family unification, which he calls "chain migration," and an end to the visa lottery, that critics say ultimately could cut legal immigration to America by 40% or more.

Attorney General Talks State Law About Immigrants And Ice | The Fresno Bee
Lewis Griswold @
fresnobee.com
By Lewis Griswold

These Young People Left Sacramento And Came Back To Make A Difference | The Sacramento Bee
Tony Bizjak and Ryan Lillis @
sacbee.com
She worked in Los Angeles as a manager for a restaurant chain because she wanted to be somewhere that had more culture. The company transferred her temporarily to Sacramento, but when they asked her to take a new assignment in another city, she surprised herself by saying no thanks.

Why did the GOP vote for a budget-busting spending bill? Because voters donâ

Voter concern over surging deficits is at its lowest level in nearly a generation. Meanwhile, voters support spending to create jobs or cut taxes, polls show.

For The Legal Cannabis Trade, Some New Wrinkles: Older Users
Peter Rowe @
latimes.com
Even before California legalized recreational marijuana sales Jan. 1, pot was enjoying a gray renaissance, with reported use by Americans 65 an older more than tripling between 2006 and 2013.

For Legal Cannabis, Some New Wrinkles: Older Users - The San Diego Union-tribune
Peter Rowe @
sandiegouniontribune.com


10 Years After Great Recession, Some Valley Jobs Remain Lost | The Fresno Bee
Tim Sheehan @
fresnobee.com
By Tim Sheehan

Problems In The Pipeline For Sempra's Subsidiary In Mexico - The San Diego Union-tribune
Rob Nikolewski @
sandiegouniontribune.com


Amid The Death And Destruction In Montecito, A Bakery Becomes A Center Of Recovery And Hope
Steve Lopez @
latimes.com
"People were waiting outside," she said, and when the doors opened at 7 a.m., about 20 people stepped to the counter to order breakfast.

Firing Of Teacher After Same-sex Wedding Turns Into Miami Congressional Campaign Issue

Richardson said the case underscores the need for federal legislation and the passage of a bill which would ban Florida hotel owners and employers from discriminating against people due to their sexual orientation or gender. | AP Photo

'deep Division,' Distrust Pervade Huntington Beach Police Department, Study Finds
Hannah Fry @
latimes.com
City officials in November hired Costa Mesa-based Management Partners to gather employee perspectives on the department's strengths and limitations amid mounting tension between Chief Robert Handy and the city's police unions.

Republicans Aren’t Interested In Trump Weighing In On Domestic Violence -- Plane Crashes In Moscow -- Exclusive From Bade: Rsc Executive Director Out, After He Critiques GOP Leadership - Politico

-- NOTE: Jordan is speaking for the House Freedom Caucus, the small -- but influential -- conservative group. The vast majority of the House Republican Conference -- 167 lawmakers -- supported the budget agreement though. But just 20 Republicans can overthrow the speaker.

L.A. County Set To Build Its First New Freeway In 25 Years, Despite Many Misgivings
Louis Sahagun @
latimes.com
The California Department of Transportation, in cooperation with a joint powers authority, will in June begin buying land to build a 63-mile-long high desert freeway connecting Palmdale and Lancaster with Victorville, Apple Valley and Adelanto.

Trump blames â

President Trump blasted current immigration laws and blamed them for the presence of MS-13, a notoriously violent street gang, in a video released on Feb. 10.