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CCST Science and Technology Week

 

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • AD42 (Yucaipa): added John Doddridge (D) 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: SAC LGBT COMMUNITY CENTER - Resident house manager (Sacramento)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Assistant Director, Government Relations (Sacramento)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representatives (Bay Area, LA North East, Orange, San Bernardino, San Joaquin North)
  • Traning: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels

 

Well, happy Saturday! Last night, the parade of Californians on the teevee continued with Adam Schiff (D-CA28) visiting with Bill Maher on the first segment of HBO's Real Time. Just before the taping, President Trump kicked the Schiff-led Democrats memo on the FISA warrants back to the Intelligence Committee to be rewritten by the majority. Maher skewered Devin Nunes (R-CA22) with "25 Things You Don't Know About Me." Ouch, but Maher's humor won't be persuading any voters in Nunes's district. 

Let's get a few items that have slipped through The Nooner cracks the last couple of days as I wrote long segments on polling, harassment and south east Los Angeles and San Gabriel Valley politics. More on the latter two tomorrow or Monday. Honestly, the constantly evolving political allegiances are very difficult to objectively unwind, and I'm getting contradictory tips. 

After the jump, I do revisit polling in the governor's race, and have added two polls to the table--the internal one conducted for John Chiang's campaign and the poll conducted by PPIC in November. I talk about where I think things really stand. 

AURAL PLEASURE: On the California Politics Podcast, John Myers and Melanie Mason talk about, what else, the allegations of sexual harassment against Cristina Garcia. They also chat about the passage of the bill of protections for legislative staff whistleblowers. On KQED's Political Breakdown, Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos visit with San Francisco Board of Supervisors president London Breed, who is running for mayor in June [iTunes only]. 

HARASSMENT: For CALmatters, Laurel Rosenhall continues her great reporting on the harassment issue, and looks at the discrepancies of record-keeping and disparate discipline meted out to those found "more likely than not" to have committed alleged transgressions. 

While I've been focusing on polling results on the major election issues, the PPIC poll did also test the issue of sexual harassment in the Legislature. In included these numbers on Thursday, but that seems years ago. 

Sexual harassment/misconduct in the Legislature (registered voters)

How closely are you following news about sexual harassment and misconduct in the California state legislature — very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 18%

  • Very closely: 28%
  • Fairly closely: 31%
  • Not too closely: 21%
  • Not at all closely: 2%

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Democratic leaders in the state legislature are currently handling the issue of sexual harassment and misconduct in the California State Legislature?

  • Approve: 38%
  • Disapprove: 36%
  • Don't know: 25%

I call BS on these results. 59% of registered voters are not following the issue fairly or very closely. They are giving what they think is a popular answer. Look at local television ratings and newspaper readership. Fifty-eight percent are not following the issue in Orange and San Diego Counties, where none of the accused are from and thus where there has been less coverage. I read these papers every day. And, it ain't because they are reading The Nooner. 

I'd throw both of these questions out and focus on what our community does going forward. Complete current investigations and develop a better much culture and strengthened processes going forward.

U.S. SENATE: In Politico, David Siders writes that things are lining up strongly for Senator Dianne Feinstein's re-election as Pro Tem Kevin de León struggles in early fundraising and polls. Even liberal critics of hers are starting to see de León's role as more to pull Feinstein toward the left (along with Kamala Harris she voter "no" on Friday morning's budget bill to reopen the government) rather than having a serious shot at winning in November.

Li'l birdies tell The Nooner's hamsters that de Leon's back-up plan is Los Angeles City Council, although that's Gil Cedillo's seat, which won't be up until 2022 and Cedillo isn't termed out until 2026. However, the neighboring seat currently is held by José Huizar, who is term-limited in 2020. Of course with the Los Angeles DA's vigilance on residency that led to the conviction and resignation of Senator Rod Wright, the physical move would have to be legitimate and bullet-proof. 

There may also be other factors in play that guides his political future.

TUNNELS: A story that occurred mid-week that I skipped because of everything else that was going on was Governor Brown's revision to the California WaterFix project. With overwhelming opposition from Bay Area and the southern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley governments, a federal government that is already stiffing California on the Oroville Dam fix, and a gubernatorial election ahead, Brown knows time is running out on one of his big legacy projects. And, I won't even talk about the challenges facing the high-speed rail project today.

The biggest thing facing Brown's goal is the leadership to whom he hands the baton on January 7, 2019. 

The major candidates express direct opposition to the tunnels (they may have in forums), either twin or solo, but it's clear that nobody is willing to, uh, carry the water for the project as Brown has.

RECALL: Also for CALmatters, Dan Walters writes that the recall campaigns against Senator Josh Newman and Santa Clara Superior Court Judge Aaron Persky could "bring more chaos to California’s already fragile structure of governance, declaring open season on any official who happens to do something that’s unpopular and encouraging politicians to protect themselves by distorting election laws even more."

THE WALL: In the Times, Kristina Davis reports on a San Diego federal court hearing yesterday of three consolidated lawsuits, including by Attorney General Xavier Becerra, challenging the federal government's authority to waiver certain laws to move forward with construction on a border wall. This includes the prototypes built on Otay Mesa.

Oh, and the judge in the case? Judge Gonzalo Curiel, who oversaw the case against Trump University and who, according to the WSJ, POTUS claimed would be biased because he "had had "an absolute conflict" in presiding over the litigation given that he is "of Mexican heritage" and a member of a Latino lawyers’ association." 

According to Politifact, the President also said: "He is a member of a club or society, very strongly pro-Mexican, which is all fine," Trump said on Face the Nation on June 5. "But I say, he's got bias. I want to build a wall." The organization is La Raza Lawyers.

I don't know the exact legal issues in the case, but you can bet that Curiel, if he finds against the federal government, will write a bullet-proof opinion. From there, it would go to the Ninth Circuit and then to the Supreme Court. Yeah, that one year delay to block confirmation of Obama-appointee Merrick Garland to hold a seat for Trump-appointee Neil Gorsuch may pay off yet again.

Well played gents, well played. The game is the game

No secret I'm not crazy about the wall. I get that we need to have increased border security. If Intel can help South Korea put 1200 drones in the air to reshape from shapes of athletes to the Olympic rings, we can do this with technology, without interrupting the ecosystem that critters are currently living in. Democrats should put a proposal on the table if that's what gets a DACA fix. Of course, agribusiness--from California's fields to the mega meat processing plants in the southeast and construction contractors throughout the country--don't really want to stop the flow of low-wage workers.

So, we hit a stalemate in March or after a short delay that likely means that DACA grantees have to return to the shadows, literally moving since they were required to give their address for the security check that originally protected them.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

As mentioned above, I've added two polls to the table of the gubernatorial race--the December PPIC statewide poll (conducted in November) and John Chiang's internal poll, essentially taken the same time as the latest PPIC poll.

Here are some key takeaways. All of these are of likely voters, but the methodology is based on June 5 likely voters and the only thing we can say with certainty is that no pollster is exactly correct in their methodology.

  • It's early and we won't have ballot designations until March 29, when they are published by the Secretary of State after being filed by candidates by March 14. This may or may not be of significance, depending on how much advertising money each candidate has on hand.
  • Travis Allen (R) is 4-7% in recent polls, and after spending lots of time and fundraising capital on his unsuccessful gas tax repeal initiative, he's going to have a hard time raising money to build his support to be a leading GOP candidate. He built a broad fundraising base during the gas tax campaign, but they are low-dollar donors who can't compete with the fundraising prowess of the three leading Democrats or personal wealth of Cox and Ose.

    Allen's hope is in a response in PPIC shows twice as many voters (62%) prefer a candidate for Senate or governor who has experience in elected office than one who has experience running a business (31%). Of course, in a separate question, "stand on the issues" (60%) is more important than experience (17%) and character (16%). Explain that dichotomy.
  • John Chiang (D) is essentially 8-11% with the highest number found by the poll done for Gavin Newsom's campaign. Only Berkeley IGS and November PPIC polling found him below this range.
  • John Cox (R) is between 7-10%, leading the three major GOP candidates in the most recent series of polls while trailing the top 3 Democrats. 
  • Delaine Eastin (D) hasn't been able to break 5% despite strong performance in forums. The question is whether there will be televised "debates" leading up to June 5 and if she can connect with viewers as the only female in the race and articulate education, connecting it with jobs and the economy, which as I wrote Thursday, is by far the most significant among issue self-identified by California registered voters. Education is seventh.
  • Gavin Newsom (D) has consistently remained the front-runner in the high 20s to 30, while his opponents would point that he's not climbing and is hanging steady in the PPIC poll between November and January samples.
  • Doug Ose entered the race on Friday, January 5. In PPIC, he registers at 9% in the Central Valley where he's a former congressman, and 0% in all other regions. I don't consider his polling meaningful at this time. Nor to I expect him to pull from Allen and Cox, but rather is focused on the 18-29% of undecideds.
  • Antonio Villaraigosa is likely somewhere in the high teens. The noise--like everyone else--is around ballot title and likely voter methodology and weighting. He appears to have picked up a couple of points, but we're talking margin of error. 
  • The race is wide open. Internal polling is done for fundraising, endorsement, and message-honing purposes. I would dismiss many of the headlines written this week. It's not a horse race for number 1 at this point, but rather for number 2. Some argue that Chiang is in a better position for primary spending as Villaraigosa's cash on hand includes a lot of money designated as general since many donors also hit the $29,200 max for the primary.

    On the other hand, Villaraigosa is perceived as the most appealing candidate within the consistent top three to the business community. While some may stick with Cox or Ose, it's expected that business is going to put in a lot of money into independent expenditures to get Villaraigosa in the top two. This would be particularly true of health care interests who fear Newsom's passion for single-payer and support of SB 562, in contrast with Villaraigosa's more cautious approach

  

Polling: Race for Governor

top two primary, regardless of party

  USC Dornsife / LA Times  10/27-11/6/17 Public Policy Institute of CA 
11/10-11/19/17
Davis Research for Berkeley IGS
12/7-12/16/17
Tulchin for USC Rossier School
1/21-28/18
David Binder for
Gavin Newsom   1/31-2/4/18
Public Policy Institute of CA
1/21-1/30/18
Global Strategies for John Chiang
1/27-2/1/18

Travis Allen (R) 15.0% 6%  9% 7% 4% 8% 7% 
John Chiang (D) 4.1% 9%  5% 8% 11% 9% 10% 
John Cox (R) 11.4% 6%  9% 9% 7% 7% 10% 
Delaine Eastin (D) 4.1% 3%  5% 5% 4% 4%  5%
Gavin Newsom (D) 31.1% 23%  26% 25% 30% 23% 28% 
Doug Ose (R) n/a  n/a n/a 3% 4% 3% 3% 
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) 20.7% 18% 17% 10% 11% 21% 14% 
Someone else (specified) n/a 1%  1% 4%  n/a 1%  n/a
Other/Don't Know 5.7% 30%  28% 18% 29% 24% 21% 

 

Methodology
USC Dornsife/LAT n=1296 RV, 10/27-11/6/17, online, English/Spanish, MOE +/-4%
Davis Research for Berkeley IGS n=672 LV, 12/7-16/17, live interview home/cell, MOE 3.8%
David Binder Research for Gavin Newsom n=800 LV, 1/31-2/4/18, online
Tulchin Research for USC Rossier n=2500, RV, 1/21/28/18, online
Public Policy Institute of California (December) n=1070 LV, 11/10-11/19/18, live interview, English/Spanish, MOE +/- 4.3%
Public Policy Institute of California (February)
n=1042 LV, 1/21-1/30/18, live interview, English/Spanish, MOE +/- 4.3%
Global Strategies for John Chiang

n=400 LV with oversampling of non-Republicans and Asian-Americans, weighted down to likely voters, 01/27-02/01/18, live interview cell/home

 

Probolsky Research

 

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Search Inside Yourself Leadership Institute

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#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Courtney Baxter and Morgan Roth!

 


 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scott@scottlay.com for $40/week.
 
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • See Your Future Differently from Here with a Master of Public Policy degree from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Overlooking panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean from Malibu, our unique policy graduate program melds quantitative analysis with political philosophy, applied history, constitutional law, and strategy to prepare policy leaders for an impactful and successful career in the private sector, non-profit arena, and government service. Standardized test admission requirement is waived for legislative staffers. Learn more at publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/.

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Just three miles from the Capitol, our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation knowledge of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy and sign-up for an information session or webinar, or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • SAC LGBT COMMUNITY CENTER - Resident house manager (Sacramento)
    The Resident House Manager is responsible for all aspects of resident supervision in the transitional living program for LGBTQ youth (18- 24) victims of crime. This includes supervising resident activities, maintaining a safe and supportive atmosphere, ensuring residents adhere to programs rules, and complete their chores. The Resident House Manager lives on site at the house with residents and will be provided with a private room. This position reports to the Youth Programs Manager and works in partnership with other programming staff and stakeholders as well as directly with community members of diverse backgrounds. This position is a live-in position. The working hours will be 6 days a week generally from 6 to 10 p.m with limited on-call status. This is a part-time, non-exempt position.
    [More info]
  • SEIU-UHW -- Assistant Director, Government Relations (Sacramento)
    This position will lead our governmental advocacy program with members of the California Legislature, members of Congress and otheelected officials to persuade them to support or oppose legislation or regulation on behalf of SEIU-UHW. The Director would be responsible for overseeing all aspects of major projects and programs within the department, directing the work of multiple staff, contractors and member leaders in support of objectives. This position reports to the Political Director and works with senior staff in the overall development and implementation of the department's strategic organizational plan. Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.

  • SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Los Angeles)
    This position is responsible for a range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box.  Proven track record is a must.  Competitive salary and excellent benefits.  For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_BayArea.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (LA-North East) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_LANorthEast.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE.

    Details:www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_Orange.aspx 
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Bernardino) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanBernardino.aspx
  • CA School Boards Association – Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North) This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://www.csba.org/About/Careers/PublicAffairsCommunityEngagementRepresentative_SanJoaquinNorth.aspx

 


 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Democratic Candidates For Governor Make Promises To Union Workers Ahead Of Key Endorsement Vote
Seema Mehta @
latimes.com
Days before one of California’s most powerful labor unions announces its endorsement in the race for governor, the four top Democratic candidates courted members of the group’s largest and most influential local chapter in Los Angeles on Thursday night.

Aspire Charter School May Leave CalPERS | The Sacramento Bee
Adam Ashton @
sacbee.com
Chronicling civil-service life for California state workers

L.A. Unified Once Again Embarks On A Tough Search For A New Superintendent
Anna M. Phillips, Howard Blume, Joy Resmovits @
latimes.com
The two largest school districts in the U.S., New York City and Los Angeles, are engaged in simultaneous searches for new leaders of their school systems. Whether they're likely to consider similar candidates depends on local politics and the districts' priorities.

California Prison Inmates Seek Curative Treatment For Hepatitis C | The Sacramento Bee
Cathy Locke @
sacbee.com
By Cathy Locke

A Plan To House L.A.'s Homeless Residents Could Transform Parking Lots Across The City
Doug Smith @
latimes.com
A plan to make city property available for homeless housing projects is now focused almost entirely on about 120 public parking lots, most acquired by the city in the 1950s and 1960s to spur suburban commercial development. The conversions will require both architectural and political ingenuity.

News Analysis: Republicans Have an Election Message, but Trumpâ
JONATHAN MARTIN and ALEXANDER BURNS @

Tax cuts and economic growth appear to be improving the party’s political position, but President Trump can’t seem to stop antagonizing voters, especially women.

Protesters Still Fighting Charges From 2016 Neo-nazi Rally At California Capitol - Capradio.org
Sammy Caiola @
capradio.org
Capital Public Radio, Inc.7055 Folsom BoulevardSacramento, CA 95826

John Gavin, actor who became ambassador to Mexico, dies at 86

LOS ANGELES (AP) — John Gavin, the tall, strikingly handsome actor who appeared in “Spartacus,” ‘’Psycho” and other hit films of the 1960s before forsaking acting to become President Ronald Reagan’s ambassador to Mexico, died Friday at age 86. Gavin, who was also a former president of the Screen Actors Guild, died Friday, said Brad Burton Moss, manager of Gavin’s wife, actress Constance Towers. Moss did not provide the cause of death. After appearances in a handful of 1950s B-movies, Gavin’s breakthrough came in 1958 when he landed the lead role of a World War II German soldier in “A Time to Love and a Time to Die.

San Diego Lawmakers Introduce Bill Aimed At Increasing Concealed-carry Permit Requirements | Kpbs
City News Service @
kpbs.org
Two San Diego-area Democratic lawmakers Friday announced a bill to increase requirements for people seeking concealed-carry weapons permits in California.

Four File To Run Against Disciplined Judge Gary Kreep - The San Diego Union-tribune
Greg Moran @
sandiegouniontribune.com


Trump Blocks Release Of Democratic Memo - Politico

President Donald Trump moved Friday to block the release of a Democratic memo intended to counter GOP claims that the FBI inappropriately spied on a Trump campaign adviser in 2016.

"race And Iq" Science Project Causes Uproar At Sacramento's Mcclatchy High School | The Sacramento Bee
Diana Lambert And Anita Chabria @
sacbee.com
By Diana Lambert And Anita Chabria

Election contrast in the Trump era: Republican pugilists vs. Democratic pacifiers

Democratic candidates focus on pragmatism and compromise as an antidote to Trump. Republicans portray themselves as hard-charging as the president.

California Must Consider Earlier Parole For Sex Offenders, Judge Rules
Associated Press @
latimes.com
California must consider earlier parole for potentially thousands of sex offenders, maybe even those convicted of pimping children, a state judge said Friday.

Last Iconic 'immigrant Crossing Sign' Disappears - The San Diego Union-tribune
Kate Morrissey @
sandiegouniontribune.com
Sergii Pyvovarenko fled after he was kidnapped and tortured by the Right Sector, a far-right nationalist group.

The Democratsâ

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is pumping money and infrastructure into an array of legislative races. Special election results suggest it’s paying off.

L.A. Federal Judge Rules That A Key Part Of Trump's Immigration Crackdown Effort Is Illegal
Joel Rubin @
latimes.com
In his order issued Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Andre Birotte Jr. found that a now-defunct policy of the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department violated the constitutional rights of inmates who were kept in custody at the behest of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.