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THE Nooner for February 1, 2018

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John Cox for Governor

 

Not unexpected on a day like today, I ran out of time after 5.5 hours of straight campaign finance craziness. Just a few clarifying edits and a spelling correction. 

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:

 

Happy Thursday! If this Nooner makes it out, that'll amazing (of course, long-time readers know that the hamsters send it out whether I'm ready or not). 

My head is about to explode after staring at campaign finance reports since noon yesterday. Of 646 candidates (including some likely to bail), over 400 had to file reports by last night. And, it may sound easy to just process electronically, but it's actually quite complicated.

Here are a few of the "fun" issues, and things you need to be aware of as you read the reports:

  • The special elections for AD45 (West San Fernando Valley - Dababneh) and AD54 (Culver City) weren't set until January 8. Thus, while some candidates established committees for the "regular" June 5 primary, they couldn't open a committee for the non-existent special election (April 3 special primary, June 5 special general) until January 8. 

    The special election (same schedule) for AD39 (East San Fernando Valley - Bocanegra) was set on December 11, so some candidates opened committees, but you can imagine that fundraising was a bit limited between December 12 and the new year.

    For all three special elections, the next periodic report is due February 22, which covers 01/01/18-02/17/18. Additionally, any contribution from a single source over $1,000 must be filed electronically within 24 hours now through the April 3 special primary. 
  • Several statewide candidates have committees from their prior office, and it often means big money. Consultants like to spin the candidates with a combined number, although you can't take it on face value. 

    Let's call a candidate for governor Mary Smith. Mary is currently State Controller and was last elected in 2014, and still has $2 million in that account. She starts with $0 in her new account for governor. Her controller account accepted up to $6,800 for each the primary and general elections, per the limits in the 2014 cycle, or a total of $13,600. 

    The limits for governor in 2018 are $29,200 for each the primary and general, a total of $58,400. So, why doesn't Mary just transfer all that 2014 money to her 2018 account? Well, let's say that she received $13,600 from Acme Corporation in 2014. She could go hat in hand to Acme Corporation for a new $58,400 now and keep that old $13,600 for some other purpose. Or, when the going gets tough and Acme doesn't show up, she could make the transfer.

    It's all about keeping options open. So, it's impossible to say how much of these "other accounts"--including ballot measure accounts controlled by the candidates--will be transferred to the current year account. And, in the example, I made it easy with only one account not for the current year; sometimes a candidate can have multiple.

    As you'll see as I give fundraising numbers for key statewides below, I've tried to cite these "other accounts," when the balance is significant (I arbritrarily set the bar at $50,000--Travis Allen has two old committees with a few hundred dollars each in them). 
  • In addition to the special elections, we had two congressional retirements after January 1 that changed the landscape. In CA39 (Fullerton), Ed Royce (R) retired. Several Democrats were already in the race, while no Republicans were challenging Royce. So, we have reports from five Democrats, but not the strong candidate Jay Chen (who previously challenged Royce) or the two strong Republicans (Bob Huff and Young Kim).

    The same thing is true in CA49 (Oceanside - Issa). Democrats had been raising money before Issa's retirement, but the two Republicans--Rocky Chávez and Diane Harkey didn't start their campaigns until after the close of the filing period. Further, their decision to run for congress created openings in AD76 (Chávez) and BOE4 (Harkey). Thus, we have new candidates in those districts who weren't required to file a report.  
  • When looking at numbers, keep in mind whether someone is providing the latest reporting period (07/01-12/31 for state elections and 10/1-12/31 for federal elections) or for the entire year (01/01/2017-12/31/2017). Even the FEC reports different periods on different pages.

It'll take a few days to sort everything out. Do not quote the numbers on AroundTheCapitol.com as an original source. While I've been spot-checking, it takes a long time to verify 108 state offices and 300+ reports, and the Federal Elections Commission hasn't even processed many of the 54 (53 House + 1 Senate) reports. 

While I provide raw data, such as on ElectionTrack (which really focuses on "late" contributions), I'm really about analysis. Thus it's far more complicated than just looking at the raw numbers. Thus, beware of your inbox with football spiking and endzone dances. In many cases, we still don't know the first quarter score.

And, thus, my brain explodes.

 

Boom goes the head 

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Today, let's look at the state's constitutional offices. 

By "major," I'm including candidates who have filed reports and have, in most cases, raised significant money. In others, like SOS, I include an additional candidate to reflect the candidate with the next largest report or I've added the GOP candidate with the most cash on hand, even if far behind.

Obviously, it's a top-two primary in which the two candidates receiving the most votes regardless of party will advance to November.

Also, note that "debt" can include personal "loans" from the candidate, which often are never repaid.

 

Governor

Major* candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Travis Allen (R)  $368,827 $653,447 $135,535 $342,850
John Chiang (D) $1,300,122 $1,264,602 $5,788,279 $20,283
 - Chiang 2014 $0 $8,488 $3,222,387 $558
John Cox (R)  $305,016 $1,154,267 $1,966,069 $12,404
Delaine Eastin (D) $336,936 $258,418 $183,843 $103,623
Gavin Newsom (D) $4,645,905 $1,122,607 $16,662,197 $56,728
 - Newsom 2012 $0 $16,200 $2,916,832 $0
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) $2,093,445 $666,225 $5,887,660 $48,838
         
Note: Doug Ose joined the race after the close of the filing period ending December 31.

 

You rarely see debt at a level like Travis Allen's $342,850 unless it includes a personal "loan" or its a report of former congresswoman Laura Richardson*.

That's not the case with Allen. Here are his outstanding debts:

  • No Party Preference Voter Guide: $74,208.00
  • Landslide Communications: $160,000.00
  • Budget Watchdog Newsletter: $108,642

Basically, they are advance purchases for slates, but with his cash on hand, I wouldn't want to be a debtor.

* Laura Richardson lost her congressional in 2012 after redistricting with $523,482 in debt and just stopped reporting. Don't ask John Shallman or these other creditors about it. Sore subject. It's a dangerous biz if your candidate loses.

 

Lieutenant Governor

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Jeff Bleich (D) $768,344 $208,614 $1,147,449 $15,566
Ed Hernandez (D) $405,182 $328,244 $1,618,468 $33,572
Eleni Kounalakis (D) $892,937 $388,259 $1,909,037 $37,751

 

Secretary of State

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Mark Meuser (R) $16,310 $13,990 $2,320 $500
Alex Padilla (D) $324,419 $278,140 $372,237 $108,402

 

Attorney General

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Xavier Becerra (D) $1,631,364 $542,788 $3,168,841 $22,254
Eric Early (R) $209,125 $123,542 $125,111 $54,528
Dave Jones (D) $530,673 $267,280 $1,564,555 $103,697
 - Dave Jones 2014 $0 $13,657 $2,536,017 $768

 

Controller

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Betty Yee (D) $527,432 $164,783 $1,096,049 $4,279

 

Treasurer

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Fiona Ma (D) $437,000 $230,740 $1,599,085 $41,871
         
Note: Vivek Viswanathan (D), a special assistant in the office of Governor Brown, joined the race after the close of the reporting period.

 

Insurance Commissioner

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

Peter Kuo (R) $11,095 $9,169 $3,726 $4,050
Ricardo Lara (D) $386,360 $335,957 $305,102 $69,571
Asif Mahmood (D) $400,664 $230,691 $1,003,671 $50,550
 
Note: Mahmood's money is still in an account labeled for Lieutenant Governor. He has since switcher to Insurance Commissioner and is expected to transfer the full amount, as reflected above, to the IC race.

 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Tony Thurmond  $421,930 $218,395 $1,117,253 $9,521
Marshall Tuck $805,391 $258,864 $1,558,090 $10,758

 

BOE after the jump.

 

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Search Inside Yourself Leadership Institute

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Board of Equalization 1 (Inland/Northeast)

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Connie Conway (R) $178,474 $158,840 $19,178 $0
Ted Gaines (R) $106,505 $63,841 $136,402 $504
Tom Hallinan (D) $100,000 $50 $100,000 $0
 
Note: Obviously, Hallinan's filed report has a small error, as Cash on Hand should be $99,950 unless receipts were $100,050.

 

Board of Equalization 2 (Northwest)

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Barry Chang (R) $23,000 $10,428 $12,720 $148
Malia Cohen (D) $224,724 $74,829 $470,617 $2,873
Cathleen Galgiani $497,803 $292,541 $390,117 $7,071

 

Board of Equalization 3 (LA/Ventura)

Major candidate activity 07/01-12/31/17

  Receipts Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Rudy Bermudez (D) $24,900 $33,323 $21,391 $3,000
Ben Pak (D) $107,608 $89,882 $68,718 $50,992
Scott Svonkin (D) $81,350 $106,062 $379,707 $60,337
Tony Vazquez (D) $95,431 $52,242 $99,686 $734

 

Board of Equalization 4 (South)

This seat opened following the announced retirement of Congressman Darrell Issa. BOE member Diane Harkey had been running for re-election, but now is running for Congress.

State Senator Joel Anderson is running for the seat, and has a combined $165,000 in other accounts, but wasn't required to report for the period closing 12/31, since all activity has been since then.

 

Probolsky Research

 

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to my dad, Roy Lay!

 

 

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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Gavin Newsom Has More Cash On Hand Than All His Rivals For Governor Combined
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Gavin Newsom remains the dominant front-runner in fundraising in the California gubernatorial campaign, reporting nearly $16.7 million in cash on hand as the year started, according to disclosure documents filed with the state on Wednesday.

Feinstein Leads De Leon In Fundraising For Ca Senate Race | The Sacramento Bee
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The go-to source for news on California policy and politics

Trump Falsely Claims His State Of The Union Audience Was 'highest' In History
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President Trump seems to have a fixation with the size of his audiences — and with getting the numbers wrong. He was wrong again Thursday, falsely claiming that the broadcast audience for his first State of the Union address was “the highest number in history.”

Sf Will Wipe Thousands Of Marijuana Convictions Off The Books - San Francisco Chronicle
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San Francisco will retroactively apply California’s marijuana-legalization laws to past criminal cases, District Attorney George Gascón said Wednesday — expunging or reducing misdemeanor and felony convictions going back decades.

Fertilizer On Farm Fields Is A Major Source Of California Smog, UC Davis Says | The Sacramento Bee
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New California Legislation Would Make It Easier To Build Projects That Meet Climate Goals. But Environmentalists Don't Like It
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A new bill from a Bay Area lawmaker aims to give breaks under the state's environmental law to transportation projects that are part of a region's approved plan to combat climate change. But major environmental groups say the legislation goes too far.

City Of Oroville Sues State Over Dam Crisis | The Sacramento Bee
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At Retreat, Trump Pushes GOP To Compromise On Immigration Bill - Politico

Trump also suggested that Democrats' interest in Dreamers was disingenuous and that members of the opposing party might not be interested in finding a bipartisan solution, only in using immigration as an issue with which to attack the GOP next November. The president predicted that such a strategy would backfire and ultimately benefit Republicans.

Businesses, Farmers Sue California Over Oroville Dam Crisis | The Sacramento Bee
Dale Kasler @
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By Dale Kasler

Mark Farrell Says Brief Tenure As Sf Mayor Will End His Political Career - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
Serving as San Francisco’s mayor for the next few months will be the epilogue of Mark Farrell’s political career, as the former supervisor and venture capitalist pledged Wednesday to step away from elected office once his successor takes office in June.

Democrats Running For California Governor Play Nice During Debate Focused On Abortion Rights
Phil Willon @
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Anyone expecting fireworks at Tuesday night’s gubernatorial debate in San Francisco must have been sorely disappointed.

Trump On 'dreamers' Label: 'don't Fall Into That Trap' - Politico

The president, addressing lawmakers at a Republican retreat in West Virginia, called for a resolution to the ongoing congressional impasse over immigration policy, which has stalled as Republican and Democratic officials have failed to reach a compromise over the Obama-era immigration initiative.

Californians With Severe Mental Illness Could Be Banned For Life From Owning Firearms Under New Proposal
Patrick McGreevy @
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A state lawmaker wants to mandate a lifetime ban on possessing firearms by some Californians suffering from severe mental health issues, saying it may help reduce the number of suicides.

#metoo Gets Perennially Stalled State Whistle-blower Protection Bill Revived - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
SACRAMENTO — In each of the past four years, a Senate committee inexplicably killed a bill to provide whistle-blower protections to legislative employees. Now the revived bill is one of the most popular in the Legislature, with more than half the lawmakers signing on as co-authors as it heads to the full Senate for a critical vote Thursday.