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THE Nooner for November 30, 2017


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POLL POSITION: The Public Policy Institute is out with its statewide poll "Californians and their Government." Just some quick excerpts before you go to bed. Crosstabs [Adult residents | Likely voters]

Adult residents: n=1,391; MOE: ±3.9; live interviews (landline/cell); Spanish and English; November 10–19, 2017
Likely voters: n=1,070 MOE: ±4.3 live interviews (landline/cell); Spanish and English; November 10–19, 2017


Job approvals (Approve/Disapprove/Don't Know):
Adult residents

  • Governor Jerry Brown: 53%/28/19
  • Legislature: 49%/36/15
  • Donald Trump: 28%/68/5
  • U.S. Congress: 22%/70/8

California right direction/wrong direction/don't know: 53%/41/6

United States right direction/wrong direction/don't know: 29%/65/6

2018 GOVERNOR: “As you may know, California now has a top-two primary system for statewide races in which voters can cast ballots for any candidate, regardless of party, and the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party—will advance to the general election. If the June primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

  • Gavin Newsom, a Democrat
    • All likely voters: 23%
    • Dem: 34%
    • Rep: 5%
    • Ind: 24%
    • Latinos: 11%
    • Whites: 27%
    • Other groups: 23%
  • Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat
    • All likely voters: 18%
    • Dem: 26%
    • Rep: 7%
    • Ind: 15%
    • Latinos: 42%
    • Whites: 9%
    • Other groups: 22%
  • John Chiang, a Democrat
    • All likely voters: 9%
    • Dem: 13%
    • Rep: 2%
    • Ind: 10%
    • Latinos: 9%
    • Whites: 7%
    • Other groups: 16%
  • John Cox, a Republican
    • All likely voters: 9%
    • Dem: 2%
    • Rep: 27%
    • Ind: 8%
    • Latinos: 7%
    • Whites: 12%
    • Other groups: 4%
  • Travis Allen, a Republican
    • All likely voters: 6%
    • Dem: -
    • Rep: 18%
    • Ind: 6%
    • Latinos: 4%
    • Whites: 8%
    • Other groups: 4%
  • Delaine Eastin, a Democrat
    • All likely voters: 3%
    • Dem: 4%
    • Rep: 2%
    • Ind: 2%
    • Latinos: 5%
    • Whites: 2%
    • Other groups: 5%
  • Someone else (volunteered)
    • All likely voters: 1%
    • Dem: -
    • Rep: 1%
    • Ind: 2%
    • Latinos: -
    • Whites: 1%
    • Other groups: 1%
  • Don't know
    • All likely voters: 30%
    • Dem: 20%
    • Rep: 37%
    • Ind: 35%
    • Latinos: 21%
    • Whites: 33%
    • Other groups: 25%

2018 SENATE: “Keeping in mind that California has the top-two primary system, if the June primary for US Senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

  • Kevin de León, a Democrat
    • All likely voters: 21%
    • Dem: 16%
    • Rep: 25%
    • Ind: 20%
    • Latinos: 26%
    • Whites: 22%
    • Other groups: 12%
  • Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat
    • All likely voters: 45%
    • Dem: 66%
    • Rep: 18%
    • Ind: 43%
    • Latinos: 48%
    • Whites: 41%
    • Other groups: 58%
  • Someone else (volunteered)
    • All likely voters: 1%
    • Dem: -%
    • Rep: 2%
    • Ind: 2%
    • Latinos: 1%
    • Whites: 1%
    • Other groups: 1%

  • Don't know
    • All likely voters: 33%
    • Dem: 18%
    • Rep: 55%
    • Ind: 35%
    • Latinos: 26%
    • Whites: 36%
    • Other groups: 29%


GOP TAX PLAN: “From what you know of those proposals, do you think you and your family will be better off, worse off, or about the same if they are passed and signed into law?"

  • Better off: 20%
  • Worse off: 41
  • About the same: 33
  • Don't know 6

“Do you think that lowering taxes for large businesses and corporations would help the economy, hurt the economy, or not make a difference?”

  • Help: 35%
  • Hurt: 41
  • No difference: 20
  • Don't know: 3


  • Top two primary:
    • Mostly a good thing: 60%
    • Mostly a bad thing: 26
    • Mixed (volunteered): 3
    • Don't know: 10
  • Gas tax repeal: 
    • Very important: 54%
    • Somewhat important: 18
    • Not too important: 12
    • Not at all important: 13
    • Don't know: 3
  • Single-payer health care:
    • Very important: 59%
    • Somewhat important: 19
    • Not too important: 6
    • Not at all important: 9
    • Don't know: 0
  • State bond for affordable housing:
    • Very important: 48%
    • Somewhat important: 25
    • Not too important: 11
    • Not at all important: 12
    • Don't know: 5
  • Expanding the size of the Legislature:
    • Very important: 18%
    • Somewhat important: 19
    • Not too important: 25
    • Not at all important: 31
    • Don't know: 7 




Probolsky Research

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Foes Of California Gas Tax Increase Launch Television Ads Seeking Repeal Initiative
Patrick McGreevy @
Republican opponents of a recent increase to the state gas tax have launched a television ad campaign aimed at getting California voter...

Hundreds Of UC Berkeley Students Say GOP Tax Bill Will Jeopardize Their Education - San Francisco Chronicle
Plan would tax waived tuition as income

Feinstein Wants Documents On 2016 Russian Election Meddling | The Sacramento Bee
Angela Hart @
The go-to source for news on California policy and politics

Senate Likely To Keep Some Property Tax Break. It's Still Not Good For Many Californians
Jim Puzzanghera, David Lauter @
Like residents of other high-tax states, Californians would benefit from being able to continue to deduct some of the cost of property taxes on their federal returns. The Republican bill headed to a final vote in the Senate this week proposes to eliminate that deduction.

Adding Deficit 'trigger' To Senate Tax Plan Raises New Hurdle - Politico

A bid by Republican leaders to get deficit-minded senators fully on board their tax overhaul may be on a collision course with Senate rules, which could tank efforts to quickly muscle the legislation through the chamber.

Ex-government Lawyer Pleads Guilty In Sf To Obstruction Of Justice Charges - San Francisco Chronicle
A former Department of Justice attorney caught trying to cash in on his knowledge of sealed complaints against corporations pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice and transportation of stolen property on Wednesday, officials said.

Pro-nuke activist from Berkeley to run for California governor
The latest candidate to replace Gov. Jerry Brown is a Berkeley resident best known as one of the nation’s most vocal advocates for nuclear power. Michael Shellenberger, the 46-year-old founder of the Breakthrough Institute think tank, announced his candidacy for governor Thursday afternoon during a panel conversation at the ClimateTech conference in San Francisco. Shellenberger, who in an interview called himself a lifelong Democrat, plans to run as an independent. He will join a growing field that includes well-financed front runners Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles.

Tom Steyer Is Leading A Campaign To Impeach Trump. Why Does That Annoy So Many Democrats?
Mark Z. Barabak @
With an eye on elected office, some believe Steyer's effort is aimed more at his political future than the president's.

Graduate Students Stage Walkout At Uci, USC And Across Country Over GOP Tax Plan – Orange County Register
Graduate students and their supporters walked out of their classrooms and research labs at campuses in Southern California and across the nation Wednesday to protest a GOP plan that would classify their tuition waivers as taxable income.

Doj May Be Cracking Down On Recreational Marijuana | The Sacramento Bee
Kate Irby And Emily Cadei @
By Kate Irby And Emily Cadei

Sen. Rubio Tells A Secret: After Giving A Tax Cut To The Rich, GOP Will Cut Social Security And Medicare
Michael Hiltzik @
Sen, Marco Rubio revealed the GOP's master plan to gut the middle class--after the tax cut for the rich, it plans to cut Social Security and Medicare.

Senate blocks effort to send tax bill back to committee

The Senate voted on Nov. 30 to not send the Republican tax reform bill back to committee.

In SF, Russian ambassador to US speaks of cooperation
In remarks alternately restrained and vividly frank, Anatoly Antonov, the new Russian Ambassador to the United States, told a San Francisco crowd Wednesday that the two countries must put the past behind them and learn to at least work together again, if not quite embrace friendship, so that “the whole world can sleep well.” Antonov’s speech at the Fairmont Hotel, which was hosted by the World Affairs Council, marked his first official visit to the Bay Area since taking the ambassadorship on Sept. 1. He was appointed ambassador by President Vladimir Putin amid a whirlwind of political turmoil spinning out of accusations that the Russians meddled in last year’s U.S. presidential election.

In Sf, Russian Ambassador To Us Speaks Of Cooperation - San Francisco Chronicle
In remarks alternately restrained and vividly frank, Anatoly Antonov, the new Russian ambassador to the United States, told a San Francisco crowd Wednesday that the two countries must put the past behind them and learn to at least work together again, if not quite embrace friendship, so that “the whole world can sleep well.”

Senate Tax Plan Won’t Cover Full Cost, Study Says - Politico

In an eagerly awaited report, the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation said Thursday that the GOP plan would fall well short of covering its $1.5 trillion cost through additional economic growth, as some Republicans have promised.

2018’s New Laws: California Businesses Brace For Changes – Press Enterprise
A slew of new laws that address unpaid parental leave, new hiring restrictions and other workplace issues will have an impact on California businesses in the coming year.

Delta residents vent about Jerry Brownâ
WALNUT GROVE, Sacramento County — A throng of people, nearly 200 strong, came to this delta town Thursday, many of them wearing work boots and ball caps, blue jeans and plaid, and all of them hoping to learn something good about Gov. Jerry Brown’s plan to solve California’s water delivery problems. The folks from the river towns and rural communities along the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta didn’t like what they heard about the plan that is being called California WaterFix. “This project will not sustain life if it goes through,” said Russell Ooms, a retired cabinetmaker from the town of Locke. “It’s funny, the word ‘fix.’ The fix is in.

Will GOP Finally Take Down Obamacare With A Tax Bill? - Politico

Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she supports the tax bill, which includes repeal of the individual mandate. | John Shinkle/POLITICO