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THE Nooner for November 20, 2017

 

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DISTRICT UPDATES

  • CA52 (San Diego): added cybersecurity engineer John Hurst (R) 
  • AD39 (E. San Fernando Valley): removed Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra (D)
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): changed from Safe Republican to Leans Republican 
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): updated analysis [available to subscribers]

 

Happy turkey/tofurkey week!

As of this morning, you are no longer paying to house Charles Manson, who has died at 83. The LAT's Miles Corwin reports "[I]n the summer of 1969, Manson masterminded a string of bizarre murders in Los Angeles that both horrified and fascinated the nation and signified to many the symbolic end of the 1960s and the idealism and naiveté the decade represented."

BREAKING: Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra (D) announced that he will not seek reelection next year "citing “persistent rumors and speculation” regarding sexual harassment claims," reports Melanie Mason in the Times. He will resign September 1, 2018, meaning there will not be a special election. Look for Bocanegra ally, LA Councillwoman Nury Martinez, to jump into the race. Currently, there is Republican Ricardo Benitez and Green Steve Correa, but this is a safe Democratic seat. While her husband is Bocanegra's district director, it's unlikely to bring her down as voters look for a woman to assume the seat.

AD72 (Seal Beach): The change from Safe to Leans Rep is because the district went from having no Democrat to having Josh Lowenthal, son of Senator Alan Lowenthal and Assemblywoman Bonnie Lowenthal. While they were from adjacent districts, it gives him immediate fundraising cred.

For CapPubRad, Ben Adler reports on what led to the indefinite suspension of Senate fellows director David Pacheco over the sexual harassment complaints against Senator Tony Mendoza

In the Bee, Marjie Lundstrom and Alexei Koseff look at the broader issue of sexual harassment and retaliation in the Capitol and beyong in state government.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Some readers questioned the change in the race ratings in CD48 (Huntington Beach) from Toss-up to Leans Democrat and SD34 (Huntington Beach) from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Aside from the previous reasons I have outlined, most notably cash on hand--the top threee Dem candidates (Kierstead, Rouda, and Siddiqui) each have over $300,000 on hand compared to less than $100,000 in total raised by Rohrabacher's 2014 opponent.

There is another issue that was on my mind--the Russia investigation (which I talk about in my full race analysis). 

Dana Rohrabacher has emerged among the congressmen most friendly with Russia. We don't know where the Robert Mueller investigation will go, but it's clearly not going away soon. There are no indications that Rohrabacher is the subject of the investigation, but it can certainly make a difference in races in this region. Why in particular?

Both districts are home to Orange County's Little Saigon, the largest Vietnamese population in the United States. Historically Republican, the 183,000-strong population is also vehemently anti-communist. While Russia is not actually a communist regime, many would still see it as quasi-Republican.

Obviously, this could create a bigger problem for Rohrabacher, as Senator Janet Nguyen has been an effective advocate for that position. So much so, that she was actually ejected from the Senate chamber as she protested during a memorialization of former Senator Tom Hayden for his opposition to the Vietnam War. That said, she could be effected by CA46, and also because of ongoing divides within Orange County's Vietnamese-American community.

CA48 is just a hair from still being a toss-up and the Mueller investigation is the main factor. Race ratings change based on a variety of factors. SD34's change from Likely to Leans doesn't mean much. She is still the favorite, and is just a hair from Likely.

I never take these issues lightly and there is no such thing as perfection in this business. 

 

Probolsky Research

 

RED TO BLUE: Somehow I missed this story by Chuck McFadden in Capitol Weekly about the GOP seats that are being targetted by Dems. "Given President Trump’s unpopularity in deep-blue California, embracing him too tightly carries political peril.  But at the same time, a Republican incumbent must recognize Trump’s 70 percent approval rating among California Republicans and cannot therefore go too far in the pursuit of independents and Trump non-admirers."

THE GREEN GREEN: The LAT's Patrick McGreevy reports that California is preparing to ensure that cannibis sellers pay their taxes under the new system set up to allow recreational marijuana sales. "Tax amnesty programs have been discussed in the past, but state officials say they are prepared to strictly enforce the law when the new system begins operating in less than two months."

THE CADEM NOD: As expected, the California Democratic Party executive board adopted rules changes to even the playing field between incumbents and challengers to receive the party's endorsement, reports Seema Mehta in the Times. The new rules provide that both would require 60% of the vote to receive the party's endorsement.

TAXING ISSUES: For CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at the tax breaks for corporations that California grants at the cost of state individual taxpayers, even as leading California Democrats blast the congressional GOP's plan.

DOUBLE-X FACTOR: Former U.S. Small Business Administration secretary and secretary of the state's Secretary of Business, Transportation, and Housing agency Maria Contreras-Sweet  is making an offer to take over the Weinstein Co. and install a majority-female board for the former film company of the disgraced Harvey Weinstein.  

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Bob Hertzberg (yesterday), Clark Lee, Eduardo Martinez, Robby Sumner, Jennifer Tobkin, Tim Yaryan!

 

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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
How Ca State Workers Can Report Nepotism | The Sacramento Bee
Adam Ashton @
sacbee.com
Chronicling civil-service life for California state workers

Conway: No Plans For Trump To Campaign For Moore - Politico

Counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway said Monday that President Donald Trump has no plans to campaign for Roy Moore, the Republican candidate for Senate in Alabama who has been accused of sexually assaulting young girls.

White House Open To Striking Health Provision From Tax Bill - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
Willie Brown: Harassment furor has politicians scared

California Democrats Vote To Make It Harder For Incumbents To Obtain Party Endorsement
Seema Mehta @
latimes.com
Share this update

Sexual Harassment In Ca: Victims Lose Careers | The Sacramento Bee
Marjie Lundstrom And Alexei Koseff @
sacbee.com
By Marjie Lundstrom And Alexei Koseff

California Lawmakers Upset That Wildfire Money Is Left Out Of White House's Disaster Aid Request
Maya Lau @
beta.latimes.com
A request on Friday for disaster relief by the White House does not provide any funding for rebuilding after California's recent wildfires.

California Has Message For The State's New Legal Pot Industry: Pay Your Taxes
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
State regulators estimate the California market could eventually generate $1 billion in taxes and fees annually. But the industry has resisted handing over its share of profits to the state treasury, and the pressure is on to reduce delinquencies and force scofflaws to pay up.

Opening For Romney Senate Bid Gets Wider - Politico

Utah Republican Boyd Matheson is forgoing a 2018 Senate campaign, a decision that further opens the door for Mitt Romney to run.

Oakland Reviewing 255 Permit Applications To Cultivate, Deliver Cannabis - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
Oakland officials are reviewing 255 applications from individuals seeking special business permits to cultivate, sell, distribute and transport marijuana legally under the state cannabis laws that take effect Jan. 1.

Politicians weigh in on taxes and the fate of the individual mandate

Democrats and some crucial Republicans aired their issues with the current Senate GOP tax plan on Nov. 19, while White House officials attempted to assuage concerns about its effects on the deficit and the middle class.

Jack Ohman Cartoon: The Existential Beat Poetry Of Gov. Jerry Brown... | The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com


As clock ticks on tax bill, White House signals a compromise

President Trump’s budget director said the White House is willing to remove a contentious Affordable Care Act provision if politically necessary.

Defying City Ban, Activists Feed Homeless In El Cajon Park - The San Diego Union-tribune
Deborah Sullivan Brennan @
sandiegouniontribune.com


Trump Says He Should Have Left UCLA Players In Chinese Jail - Sfgate
sfgate.com
All three UCLA basketball players apologize and thank President Trump for helping assist in their release following an arrest in China.

Do You Merge Early Or Wait Late When Your Freeway Lane Ends? | The Sacramento Bee
Tony Bizjak @
sacbee.com
Tony Bizjak writes about traffic and travel in the Sacramento region

Ex-tesla Employees Remain Troubled, Confused By Dismissals
mercurynews.com
Tesla, Model 3, union, firings,

Sacramento French Film Festival
sacramentofrenchfilmfestival.org
TICKET INFORMATION

Millennial voters could play a crucial role in Alabama Senate race

Will Doug Jones take advantage of the activism of Alabama's youngest voters?

One Corner. Four Killings.
latimes.com
A South L.A. neighborhood grapples with a wave of violence.