Around The Capitol

If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.

Having trouble viewing this email? Click here

Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box

THE Nooner for November 20, 2017


Subscribe to The Nooner to access exclusive election analysis. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

If the subscription price is a bit steep for you and you don't need the election analysis, help support independent coverage of California politics and policy by chipping in whatever you can afford. Thank you for your support!



  • CA52 (San Diego): added cybersecurity engineer John Hurst (R) 
  • AD39 (E. San Fernando Valley): removed Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra (D)
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): changed from Safe Republican to Leans Republican 
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): updated analysis [available to subscribers]


Happy turkey/tofurkey week!

As of this morning, you are no longer paying to house Charles Manson, who has died at 83. The LAT's Miles Corwin reports "[I]n the summer of 1969, Manson masterminded a string of bizarre murders in Los Angeles that both horrified and fascinated the nation and signified to many the symbolic end of the 1960s and the idealism and naiveté the decade represented."

BREAKING: Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra (D) announced that he will not seek reelection next year "citing “persistent rumors and speculation” regarding sexual harassment claims," reports Melanie Mason in the Times. He will resign September 1, 2018, meaning there will not be a special election. Look for Bocanegra ally, LA Councillwoman Nury Martinez, to jump into the race. Currently, there is Republican Ricardo Benitez and Green Steve Correa, but this is a safe Democratic seat. While her husband is Bocanegra's district director, it's unlikely to bring her down as voters look for a woman to assume the seat.

AD72 (Seal Beach): The change from Safe to Leans Rep is because the district went from having no Democrat to having Josh Lowenthal, son of Senator Alan Lowenthal and Assemblywoman Bonnie Lowenthal. While they were from adjacent districts, it gives him immediate fundraising cred.

For CapPubRad, Ben Adler reports on what led to the indefinite suspension of Senate fellows director David Pacheco over the sexual harassment complaints against Senator Tony Mendoza

In the Bee, Marjie Lundstrom and Alexei Koseff look at the broader issue of sexual harassment and retaliation in the Capitol and beyong in state government.



Some readers questioned the change in the race ratings in CD48 (Huntington Beach) from Toss-up to Leans Democrat and SD34 (Huntington Beach) from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Aside from the previous reasons I have outlined, most notably cash on hand--the top threee Dem candidates (Kierstead, Rouda, and Siddiqui) each have over $300,000 on hand compared to less than $100,000 in total raised by Rohrabacher's 2014 opponent.

There is another issue that was on my mind--the Russia investigation (which I talk about in my full race analysis). 

Dana Rohrabacher has emerged among the congressmen most friendly with Russia. We don't know where the Robert Mueller investigation will go, but it's clearly not going away soon. There are no indications that Rohrabacher is the subject of the investigation, but it can certainly make a difference in races in this region. Why in particular?

Both districts are home to Orange County's Little Saigon, the largest Vietnamese population in the United States. Historically Republican, the 183,000-strong population is also vehemently anti-communist. While Russia is not actually a communist regime, many would still see it as quasi-Republican.

Obviously, this could create a bigger problem for Rohrabacher, as Senator Janet Nguyen has been an effective advocate for that position. So much so, that she was actually ejected from the Senate chamber as she protested during a memorialization of former Senator Tom Hayden for his opposition to the Vietnam War. That said, she could be effected by CA46, and also because of ongoing divides within Orange County's Vietnamese-American community.

CA48 is just a hair from still being a toss-up and the Mueller investigation is the main factor. Race ratings change based on a variety of factors. SD34's change from Likely to Leans doesn't mean much. She is still the favorite, and is just a hair from Likely.

I never take these issues lightly and there is no such thing as perfection in this business. 


Probolsky Research


RED TO BLUE: Somehow I missed this story by Chuck McFadden in Capitol Weekly about the GOP seats that are being targetted by Dems. "Given President Trump’s unpopularity in deep-blue California, embracing him too tightly carries political peril.  But at the same time, a Republican incumbent must recognize Trump’s 70 percent approval rating among California Republicans and cannot therefore go too far in the pursuit of independents and Trump non-admirers."

THE GREEN GREEN: The LAT's Patrick McGreevy reports that California is preparing to ensure that cannibis sellers pay their taxes under the new system set up to allow recreational marijuana sales. "Tax amnesty programs have been discussed in the past, but state officials say they are prepared to strictly enforce the law when the new system begins operating in less than two months."

THE CADEM NOD: As expected, the California Democratic Party executive board adopted rules changes to even the playing field between incumbents and challengers to receive the party's endorsement, reports Seema Mehta in the Times. The new rules provide that both would require 60% of the vote to receive the party's endorsement.

TAXING ISSUES: For CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at the tax breaks for corporations that California grants at the cost of state individual taxpayers, even as leading California Democrats blast the congressional GOP's plan.

DOUBLE-X FACTOR: Former U.S. Small Business Administration secretary and secretary of the state's Secretary of Business, Transportation, and Housing agency Maria Contreras-Sweet  is making an offer to take over the Weinstein Co. and install a majority-female board for the former film company of the disgraced Harvey Weinstein.  

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Bob Hertzberg (yesterday), Clark Lee, Eduardo Martinez, Robby Sumner, Jennifer Tobkin, Tim Yaryan!



Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing for $40/week.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for a political, election and nonprofit organization attorney. Research and draft memoranda regarding federal, state and local political and election law and nonprofit organization issues; assist in preparation and review of campaign finance and lobbying reports; provide verbal and written advice to clients; prepare tax-exempt organization applications, tax returns and provide advice regarding structure of nonprofit organizations; assist with litigation in election and campaign matters; assist with enforcement actions and complaints; serve as counsel in ballot measure and independent expenditure campaigns; provide advice regarding campaign communications and all other legal compliance issues.

    Two to five years of relevant experience; demonstrated interest in political and election law as well as nonprofit organizations; strong writing skills, flexibility, attention to detail; excellent academic credentials; law review or journal experience preferred. Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager,


    See Your Future Differently from Here with a Master of Public Policy degree from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Overlooking panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean from Malibu, our unique policy graduate program melds quantitative analysis with political philosophy, applied history, constitutional law, and strategy to prepare policy leaders for an impactful and successful career in the private sector, non-profit arena, and government service. Standardized test admission requirement is waived for legislative staffers. Learn more at

  • "I LEARNED MORE ABOUT LOBBYING IN TWO DAYS than it would have taken me years to learn otherwise," said one of our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminar participants who counsels law and public policy students on their career options. Conducted by 42-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our seminars offer you a concentrated, cost-effective, comprehensive overview of lobbying in California -- the people, processes and best practices critical to your success. We cover the Legislative Process, Legislative Advocacy, Budget Advocacy, Regulatory Agency Advocacy, Lobbying the Administration and Media Strategies. Next dates are December 7-8. Information / registration: or 916 442 5009.
  • For 30 Years PDI has been the California’s premier data vendor.  Now, you can get an introductory live online training on the newest PDI software is every week at 4pm on Tuesdays and 10am on Thursdays A deeper training on field & phone canvassing is held every Thursday at 4pm and advanced training on a variety of topics every Wednesday at 10am. Just click on a date/time to RSVP.

  • DOWNTOWN OFFICE SPACE FOR LEASE AVAILABLE NOVEMBER 1ST. Historic building located just steps from the Capitol! Approximately 1700 square feet on the 8th Floor, West side, of the Eleventh and L Building. Suite details: open reception area, 4 private offices, large conference room, work room for copier & supplies, kitchen. For further information, please contact Eleventh and L Properties at (916)443-2496 or

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at, and sign-up for an information session or webinar or contact us at

  • The Sacramento LGBT Community Center seeks a Community Resources & Respite Coordinator that will have overall strategic and operational responsibility for the development, maintenance, evaluation and delivery of community resources and respite-based drop-in center, a vital component in our ability to provide mental health support to the region’s LGBTQ community.

    This position reports to the Director of Programs and works in partnership with other programming staff and stakeholders as well as directly with community members of diverse backgrounds. This is a full-time, non-exempt position at $15 per hour. A full job description and application information is at

  • With more than 2,000 bills introduced and hundreds of committee hearings held each year, navigating the legislative and political process can be a painstakingly difficult task. Pelote Strategic Consulting and Advocacy aims to simplify this process by helping clients develop effective strategies to accomplish their legislative and electoral goals.  Let our four decades of experience building relationships in the halls of the State Capitol and running successful candidate and initiative campaigns work for you. For more information, visit our website here or email us at


How Ca State Workers Can Report Nepotism | The Sacramento Bee
Adam Ashton @
Chronicling civil-service life for California state workers

Conway: No Plans For Trump To Campaign For Moore - Politico

Counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway said Monday that President Donald Trump has no plans to campaign for Roy Moore, the Republican candidate for Senate in Alabama who has been accused of sexually assaulting young girls.

White House Open To Striking Health Provision From Tax Bill - San Francisco Chronicle
Willie Brown: Harassment furor has politicians scared

California Democrats Vote To Make It Harder For Incumbents To Obtain Party Endorsement
Seema Mehta @
Share this update

Sexual Harassment In Ca: Victims Lose Careers | The Sacramento Bee
Marjie Lundstrom And Alexei Koseff @
By Marjie Lundstrom And Alexei Koseff

California Lawmakers Upset That Wildfire Money Is Left Out Of White House's Disaster Aid Request
Maya Lau @
A request on Friday for disaster relief by the White House does not provide any funding for rebuilding after California's recent wildfires.

California Has Message For The State's New Legal Pot Industry: Pay Your Taxes
Patrick McGreevy @
State regulators estimate the California market could eventually generate $1 billion in taxes and fees annually. But the industry has resisted handing over its share of profits to the state treasury, and the pressure is on to reduce delinquencies and force scofflaws to pay up.

Opening For Romney Senate Bid Gets Wider - Politico

Utah Republican Boyd Matheson is forgoing a 2018 Senate campaign, a decision that further opens the door for Mitt Romney to run.

Oakland Reviewing 255 Permit Applications To Cultivate, Deliver Cannabis - San Francisco Chronicle
Oakland officials are reviewing 255 applications from individuals seeking special business permits to cultivate, sell, distribute and transport marijuana legally under the state cannabis laws that take effect Jan. 1.

Politicians weigh in on taxes and the fate of the individual mandate

Democrats and some crucial Republicans aired their issues with the current Senate GOP tax plan on Nov. 19, while White House officials attempted to assuage concerns about its effects on the deficit and the middle class.

Jack Ohman Cartoon: The Existential Beat Poetry Of Gov. Jerry Brown... | The Sacramento Bee

As clock ticks on tax bill, White House signals a compromise

President Trump’s budget director said the White House is willing to remove a contentious Affordable Care Act provision if politically necessary.

Defying City Ban, Activists Feed Homeless In El Cajon Park - The San Diego Union-tribune
Deborah Sullivan Brennan @

Trump Says He Should Have Left UCLA Players In Chinese Jail - Sfgate
All three UCLA basketball players apologize and thank President Trump for helping assist in their release following an arrest in China.

Do You Merge Early Or Wait Late When Your Freeway Lane Ends? | The Sacramento Bee
Tony Bizjak @
Tony Bizjak writes about traffic and travel in the Sacramento region

Ex-tesla Employees Remain Troubled, Confused By Dismissals
Tesla, Model 3, union, firings,

Sacramento French Film Festival

Millennial voters could play a crucial role in Alabama Senate race

Will Doug Jones take advantage of the activism of Alabama's youngest voters?

One Corner. Four Killings.
A South L.A. neighborhood grapples with a wave of violence.