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THE Nooner for November 19, 2017


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AURAL PLEASURE: On the California Politics Podcast, the LAT's John Myers and Melanie Mason talk the sexual harassment schedule, the findings of inappropriate audit compliance by the University of California

Well, happy Sunday. Those were two good football games last night. In the end, the favorites in both games prevailed, but they were competitive games and viewers got a treat.

In Millbrae, the California Democratic Party executive board today. Yesterday, Senator Dianne Feinstein told delegates that the sexual harassment complaints across the country could shape 2018 as another "year of the woman," reports the LAT's Liam Dillon. Feinstein was elected in one in 1992 (the other was 2006) along with former senator Barbara Boxer.  

Meanwhile, the respected national editor of the nonpartisan of The Cook Political Report predicted this week that next year will be a wave election for Democrats, something the report is rarely willing to predict. The reasons--voting by women, particularly in suburbs, as seen in the November 7 elections; the perceived impact of the tax plan (whether it's adopted or not), particularly in high tax states like California; and Donald Trump's job approval. Women have a net -32 among adult women, while men have a net -10% (Economist/YouGov; n=1500 adults; October 12-14; MOE +/- 3%

The story is not displaying on Cook's website this morning, so I've linked to a story in The Hill. Cook also changed House ratings on 7 races, although none in California.

The petition being circulated at the CDP calling for the resignation of Senator Tony Mendoza and Assemblymember Raul Bocanegra had 60 signatutes as of mid-afternoon yesterday, reports the LAT's Dillon. Dillon also reports that Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León told the Women's Caucus that he was "shocked" by the allegations against Mendoza. de León has moved out of the Sacramento house he shared with Mendoza.

For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes that the Capitol's sexual harassment scandal will not be swept under the rug as in the past. 

AP's Kathleen Ronayne reports on the discussion of after-work events that regularly involve alcohol and how that might be part of the problem.


Probolsky Research


CA04 (Foothills): In the Times, Chris Megarian looks at Democratic hopes to capture Tom McClintock's congessional seat. 

Regina Bateson was at home trying to get her young children to fall asleep before they realized Donald Trump would be their next president. Jessica Morse was volunteering in an empty office in Colorado surrounded by the wreckage of Hillary Clinton’s failed campaign. Roza Calderon felt like she was living through a nightmare as she watched the results roll in with a friend.

None of these three women, all Democrats, had run for office before. Now they’re all vying to unseat Rep. Tom McClintock, a conservative Republican who hasn’t faced serious opposition from their party since winning his seat almost a decade ago.

WHO WILL VOTE? In his column, John Myers looks at a nonpartisan effort to increase Latino engagement in California in next year's elections.

That kind of nonpartisan approach is notable, as most voter engagement efforts are conducted for a particular party or candidate — and not broadly to a large group of voters statewide. Of course, any campaign to boost Latino turnout is likely to help Democrats the most; there are three times as many Latino Democrats in the state as Republicans in California.

FIRE RECOVERY: Congressmen Jared Huffman (D-Healdsburg) and Mike Thompson (D-Napa) blasted the Trump administration yesterday for not including recovery for the wine country fires in a $44 billion emergency request, reports Rachel Swan in the Chron.  “These are Americans in a time of need, and the administration is supposed to be helping, not playing political games,” said Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena.

TAXING ISSUES: In Politico, Laura Nahmias, Katherine Landergan, and Carla Marinucci write that the GOP tax reform plan is causing leaders in Democrat-led states to re-evaluate their fiscal plans.

The Republican tax reform push in Washington is setting off budgetary alarm bells in high-tax states like New York, California and New Jersey, in the latest political skirmish to pit national Republicans against Democratic state and big city leaders.

With Republicans intent on shrinking or repealing the state and local tax deduction, California officials are worried that the House-passed tax bill, and the emerging Senate measure, will force local governments to reduce taxes and make big cuts to schools and social services. In New York, where New York City and state revenues are heavily reliant on just a handful of wealthy tax filers, budget watchdogs fear federal tax changes could trigger the flight of those residents. And in New Jersey, plans for a new millionaire's tax, one of incoming Gov. Phil Murphy's biggest campaign promises, are already being reined in as the Democratic-led New Jersey Senate waits on the outcome of any federal tax plan.

. . . 

In solidly blue California, Democratic legislators were livid about the impact of the emerging Republican tax bills. Southern California Rep. Ted Lieu fumed that “California will be the biggest loser” from the House bill, since “under this plan, Californians will shoulder the largest net tax increase at $12.1 billion in 2027.”

Sen. Dianne Feinstein charged that “Californians will be hit especially hard by the elimination of the state and local tax deduction, or what we call SALT. The 6 million California households that claim the deduction could either see their tax bill go up or see cuts to vital services like schools and roads.”

RED TO BLUE? Roll Call's Simone Pathé reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its first 11 "red to blue" districts. No California races appear on the race, but that's largely because the competitive seats have multiple serious candidates.

The California seats on the DCCC's "battlefield" are:

  • CA04 – Tom McClintock
  • CA10 – Jeff Denham
  • CA21 – David Valadao
  • CA22 – Devin Nunes
  • CA25 – Steve Knight
  • CA39 – Ed Royce
  • CA45 – Mimi Walters
  • CA48 – Dana Rohrabacher
  • CA49 – Darrell Issa
  • CA50 – Duncan Hunter

Not all of these will be actually targeted. They willl be reduced to a handful for true targeting, based on polling and fundraising.

The NRCC's comparable list includes:

BLUE TO RED? Seems Mehta report in the Times on why Republicans Travis Allen and John Cox think they have a shot at being elected governor next year despite the dark blue nature of the state. 

But the obstacles are daunting. Democratic Party advantages in voter registration, money and power have led the GOP to near-irrelevance at the state level. One way Cox and Allen hope to reverse that course and raise their name recognition is through ballot-measure campaigns. The men have pitched separate efforts to repeal the gas tax, and Cox also has submitted voter signatures to qualify a ballot measure to dramatically restructure the Legislature.

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Rachel Polish!



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This Is The Group Of California Voters Everyone Will Be Watching In 2018
John Myers @
Few election cycles in California could be as pivotal for Latino voters as the one just on the horizon. Political watchers have long wondered when these voters, now part of the state's most dominant ethnicity, will flex their collective electoral muscle.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein: Next Year Could Be Another 'year Of The Woman'
Liam Dillon @
Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein told party officials Saturday morning that the sexual harassment allegations that have rocked the...

Tax Plan Is A Gift To High-tech Firms But May Not Create Jobs | The Sacramento Bee
Tim Johnson @
By Tim Johnson

Mulvaney: White House ‘ok’ Pulling Individual Mandate Repeal From Tax Bill - Politico

President Donald Trump has called for Congress to include a repeal of the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate in its tax bill. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that doing so would save the government $338 billion over a decade but result in 13 million more Americans being uninsured by 2027.

UC Berkeley Professor's Eerie Lethal Drone Video Goes Viral - Sfgate
UC Berkeley professor Stuart Russell and the Future of Life Institute have created an eerie viral video that depicts a future in which humans develop small, hand-sized drones that are programmed to identify and eliminate designated targets.

San Jose Tells Pot Churches To Pay Taxes

Tehama Gunman Lived In A Hellscape, Then Turned His Anger On Others | The Sacramento Bee
Dale Kasler And Ryan Sabalow @
Covering crime, police and courts in the Sacramento region

In Democrat-led state capitals, GOP tax reform push could scramble fiscal plans

"We're going to have to re-evaluate everything" if a federal bill repealing the state and local tax deduction becomes law, New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney said.

Democrats See Opportunity In A Strongly Republican California Congressional District
Chris Megerian @
Essential Politics

Harassment Furor Has Frightened Politicians Scrambling For Strategies - San Francisco Chronicle

Local congressmen outraged that Trump provides no money for fire relief
Stunned that a White House request for $44 billion in disaster relief funds didn’t include a penny for fire victims in Northern California, two North Bay congressman Saturday delivered a strong rebuke to President Trump. “These are Americans in a time of need, and the administration is supposed to be helping, not playing political games,” said Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena. He and a fellow Democrat, San Rafael Rep. Jared Huffman, are ramping up pressure on the White House to set aside the $7.4 billion Gov. Jerry Brown is seeking for wildfire victims. “We were sure hoping it would be in this package,” Thompson said, adding that Brown requested the $7.

Bay Area Exiles Are Transforming Sacramento
Housing, Regional, Rents

Collins: Senate Tax Bill 'needs Work' - Politico

Collins highlighted that the top rate of 39.6 percent for people who make at least $1 million would stay the same in the House bill that cleared the chamber last week.

Basira Haidari Helps Afghan Refugees Navigate | The Sacramento Bee
Stephen Magagnini @
By Stephen Magagnini

White House: Trump Would Campaign For Moore If He Didn't Believe Accusers - Politico

Many Republican lawmakers have called on Moore to step aside following allegations that he pursued romantic relationships with teenagers as a man in his 30s, including alleged sexual contact with a 14-year-old at age 32. Moore has denied the allegations, and the White House has been largely silent on the issue.

Border Gate Opens, Briefly, For Rare Reunions And A Wedding - The San Diego Union-tribune
Greg Moran @

Trump Administration Updates Demands As Nafta Talks Continue
Don Lee @
There are few surprises in the 17-page document, given recent revelations and sharp words from NAFTA negotiators. But the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, or USTR, made some notable additions and changes to the blueprint it initially outlined in July, a month before talks began, adding a fresh degree of uncertainty to the talks.

Sf Librarian, Blinded By Nanny, Inspired Registry For Child Care Workers - San Francisco Chronicle
Everybody can use a little inspiration these days and, fortunately, there’s a heaping dose of it on the second floor of San Francisco’s Main Library.

Sonora Local News, Sports, Weather, And Lifestyle

Instacart Workers Plan Sunday-monday Strike - San Francisco Chronicle
Some Instacart shoppers and drivers, the people who buy and deliver groceries to the companies’ customers, have beefs about their compensation. Those grievances are bubbling over into a planned strike on Sunday and Monday.

The New Washington: â

Ms. Gillibrand spoke with Jennifer Steinhauer about her legislation to reform policies on sexual harassment on Capitol Hill, power dynamics, President Bill Clinton and more.