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THE Nooner for October 4, 2017

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • AD30 (Monterey County):  added Watsonville councilmember Trina Coffman-Gomez (D)
  • AD32 (Kings): added US Navy serviceman Stephen Cano (L)

Well, we thought yesterday was going to emotionally easier than Monday, but than the numbers started turning into personal stories. The UC Davis community was moved by this story in the Washington Post. Victim Michelle Vo is a UCD 2007 alumna. People are grateful to Ohioan Cody Robertson, who Michelle met at the concert, that made sure her family knew where what happened to her so they could come to Vegas to retrieve her personal items. I don't know her, but one person that I know who went to high school with her said that Vo helped her get through high school.

AD51 (East Los Angeles):  Wendy Carrillo and Luis López appear to advance in Assembly special election in Los Angeles [Chris Megarian @ LAT] 

Here are the latest results:

Candidate(s)VotesPercent
Wendy Carrillo (D) 3,604 21.00%
Luis López (D) 3,283 19.13%
Mike Fong (D) 2,852 16.62%
Gabriel Sandoval (D) 1,845 10.75%
Ron Birnbaum (D) 1,591 9.27%
Alex De Ocampo (D) 1,303 7.59%
David Vela (D) 870 5.07%
Mark Vargas (D) 772 4.50%
Andrew S. Aguero (L) 309 1.80%
Patrick Koppula (N) 257 1.50%
Barbara Torres (D) 208 1.21%
John Prysner (P) 168 .98%
Mario Olmos (D) 103 .60%

Of course there are vote-by-mail ballots received on election day to still count, although the gap of 431 votes between López and Fong make it a tough climb for Fong. Fong began the night in first, mostly from vote-by-mail ballots. He then lost ground through subsequent counts, showing that Carillo and López polled better on election day. Carillo actually started out in third, likely showing that she performed the best on election day. 

If it comes down to Carillo vs. López on December 5, it will be interesting to see how the supporters of Sandoval, Birnbaum, Ocampo, Vela, and Vargas realign themselves--both individual groups and donors and independent expenditures. 

Carillo, a communications director a SEIU local, benefitted from over $310,000 in independent expenditures by labor. López didn't have any significant independent expenditures behind him, but his work at the City of Hope cancer hospital and as a board member of Planned Parenthood gives him an extensive fundraising network in the healthcare community.

Looking at the runoff, assuming that it's Carrillo and López, the realignment of the supporters of the unsuccessful candidates is interesting. Here's a look at the candidates who received more than 500 votes:

  • Fong: This is the most difficult to predict. The up-and-coming LA Community College District trustee had several significant elected officials supporting him. He and De Ocamp were the two Asian-American candidates in the race, and while Latinos are still a significant majority of the district, the Asian population has been growing and becoming more politically active. How the elected officials and Asian-American leaders realign and influence voters will have a significant effect in December.
  • Sandoval: Likely a split, although may tilt to López, as there are more community and civil rights leaders as supporters than labor.
  • Birnbaum: A physician, Birnbaum garnered a lot of support from health care interests, including the influential California Nurses Association. Where CNA goes in a runoff is unclear. While one might think that CNA would jump behind "labor candidate" Carrillo, it's no secret that there are tensions between SEIU (which supports Carrillo) and CNA, which has competing organizing interests. Birnbaum made single-payer healthcare a key campaign issue, while Carrillo and López both support the concept. 

    If they play in the runoff, many of Birnbaum's larger donors are more likely to go with López since he has more of an administrative perspective on healthcare (both from his job at City of Hope and as a former Planned Parenthood board member) than a labor one. 
  • De Ocampo: Most voters likely go to López, as they are both active in the Democratic Party (De Ocampo was president of California Young Democrats and López is on the LA Democratic Central Committee), and both are openly gay. 
  • Vela: Another openly gay candidate who won a dual endorsement with López of Equality California, one has to predict that a majority of his voters will go to López.
  • Vargas: This is tough to predict, but interests are likely to either sit the runoff out or support López. Vargas, a "social entrepreneur" who has worked on developments, had a large independent expenditure by Keep California Golden, which is a coalition of an array of business interests that is perennially involved in the IE wars. Whether they play in the runoff or not is unclear. What would be clear is that they wouldn't jump behind Carrillo because of her strong labor support. Of course, López is no potential of the "mod squad."

What is clear is that, if it is Carrillo and López in December, ignore the preliminary 321 vote advantage Carillo has over López is meaningless. Just among the next 6 candidates I just discussed, there are 9,233 votes to be "redistributed" for the December runoff--far more than the 6,887 votes preliminarily counted for Carrillo and López combined.

For voters in AD51, December 5 will be the fifth time this year that they're called to the polls.

Buckle your seatbelts...

FOREIGN-BORN: An update to yesterday's list of foreign-born state congressional elected officials. We have two more foreign-born legislators. Assemblyman Jim Cooper was born in France, although he was born to two U.S. citizens and thus is not "first-generation," but he's added to the list anyway. Senator John Moorlach was born as Johannes Meindert Willem Moorlach in The Netherlands.  

Foreign-born California state and congressional elected officials:

  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): Salud Carbajal (Mexico)
  • CA33 (Torrance): Ted Lieu (Taiwan)
  • CA35 (Ontario): Norma Torres (Guatemala)
  • CA36 (Coachella Valley): Raul Ruiz (Mexico)
  • SD34 (Huntington Beach): Janet Nguyen (Vietnam)
  • SD37 (Irvine): John Moorlach (The Netherlands)
  • AD09 (South Sac County): Jim Cooper (France) - military
  • AD18 (Alameda): Rob Bonta (Philippines)
  • AD25 (Fremont-Santa Clara): Kansen Chu (Taiwan)
  • AD27 (San Jose): Ash Kalra (Canada)
  • AD46 (Sherman Oaks): Adrin Nazarian (Iran)
  • AD48 (West Covina): Blanca Rubio (Mexico)
  • AD49 (Monterey Park): Ed Chau (Hong Kong)
  • AD66 (Torrance): Al Muratsuchi (Japan)
  • AD68 (Irvine): Steven Choi (Korea)

US SENATE: Amidst continuing speculation about what her plans are, LA mayor Eric Garcetti  is hosting a Beverly Hills fundraiser for Dianne Feinstein's reelection with a bunch of Hollywood heavyweights, reports Seema Mehta in the Times.

PRETTY FLY FOR THE NON-WHITE GUY: Anthony York writes for Pacific Standard that the diversity of top-tier candidates for statewide races in 2018 could boost turnout of Asian and Latino voters, resulting in the Golden State having no white guys in the statewide offices.

Of the statewides, the only race with a caucasian male currently in the lead is governor with Gavin Newsom, although Treasurer John Chiang has been picking up steam. The other two potentials are attorney general (appointed incumbent Xavier Becerra v. Insurance Commish Dave Jones) and superintendent of public instruction (Assemblymember Tony Thurmond v. Marshall Tuck). A third, some might argue is lieutenant governor where, while Senator Ed Hernandez is the clear leader, but Jeff Bleich and Eleni Tsakopoulos Kounalakis are also legitimate contenders.

DOUBLE-X FACTOR: The MercNews's Marisa Kendall looks at AB 168 (Eggman), which would prohibit employers for asking applicants about salary history in an attempt to reduce salary discrimination based on gender. The bill is currently pending on the governor's desk.

JUICE: For Capitol Weekly, Vu Chau looks at AB 1452 (Muratsuchi), which would make it easier for city officials and private property owners to install electric vehicle charging stations on curbsides of public streets.

HALF-A-LOAF: For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes that the housing package signed last week continues the Legislature's habit of sending "half-a-loaf" solutions to the governor. "However, while partial solutions may give politicians cover to stave off criticism, they consume political energy while doing little about underlying problems. And they merely shift the day of reckoning to the next political generation."

While some may consider legislation "half-a-loafs," others would say it's compromise and necessary incrementalism. Big solutions don't always solve problems, they can get governor's recalled. Ask Gray. 

 

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