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THE Nooner for December 17, 2016

 

 

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Capitol Christmas

 

Happy Saturday folks. It's pretty cold all across California this morning, only because we are wusses. It's 51 in San Diego right now. America's Finest City has been frozen over! Speaking of Sandy Eggo, the SDSU Aztecs face off against the U. of Houston Cougars today in the Las Vegas Bowl. Kickoff at 12:30pm PST on ABC.

Meanwhile, DC is looking at 2 feet of snow. 

AD51 (Los Angeles): Some of the names sent to me by readers about possible candidates should Jimmy Gomez win the congressional seat include:

  • Former LA councilmember Ed Reyes
  • A few neighborhood councilmembers

Mike Fong has been removed, as he doesn't live in AD51.

Okay...put your seatbelt on. I'm writing this morning to the new Metallica album. I can't believe I started listening to Metallica in high school 

IT'S A WRAP: Secretary of State Alex Padilla released the certified final results of the November 8 general election.

  • Turnout of registered voters: 75.27%
    • Highest turnout of registered: Marin: 88.96%
    • Lowest turnout of registered: Fresno: 66.73%
  • Turnout of eligible voters: 58.74%
    • Highest turnout of eligible: Marin: 78.91%
    • Lowest turnout of eligible: Kings: 43.51%
  • Historical turnout of registereds comparison:
    • 1976: 81.53%
    • 1980: 77.24%
    • 1984: 74.93%
    • 1988: 72.81%
    • 1992: 75.32%
    • 1996: 65.53%
    • 2000: 70.94%
    • 2004: 76.04%
    • 2008: 79.42%
    • 2012: 72.36%
    • 2016: 75.27%
  • Voting method:
    • Polling: 42.21%
    • Vote-by-mail: 57.79%
  • Presidential: 
    • Clinton (D): 8,753,788 (61.7%); Trump (R): 4,483,810 (31.6%); Johnson (L): 478,500 (3.4%); Stein (G): 278,657 (2.0%)
    • Bernie Sanders write-in votes: 79,341 (0.8%)
  • U.S. Senate: Harris (D): 7,542,753 (61.6%); Sanchez (D): 4,401,417 (38.4%)

Turnout among registered voters was about average of presidential general elections since 1976.

The vote margin Clinton garnered over Trump is 4,269,978. The national popular vote margin is ~2.9 million, meaning California accounts for all of Clinton's popular vote margin, plus an additional 1.3+ million. Aside from the District of Columbia, California led the nation in the percentage of votes cast for Clinton. The top 5 states for Clinton were California (61.7%), Hawaii (60.98%), Maryland (60.33%), Massachusetts (60.01%), and Vermont (55.72%). The lowest for Clinton was Wyoming at 21.63%. The coal message really helped Trump in West Virginia, where he garnered 68.83% of the vote in the once reliably Democratic state.

The national average of the popular vote for Clinton is (currently) 48.08%.

There were 14,181,595 total votes cast for President. There were 14,610,509 total voters, meaning the undervote was 428,914 (2.9%). Thus, despite talk of people holding their noses out of disdain for the two leading candidates does not appear evident. 

The undervote in the U.S. Senate race was 462,575 (3.2%), which means that the vast majority of Republicans and Decline-to-state voters cast votes in the race between the two Democrats in state's first test of voter behavior in the top-two system among two candidates of the same party. 

While 2018 will see lower turnout and a modestly more conservative electorate, the margin that Hillary Clinton garnered and voter behavior in the intra-party race, it is extremely unlikely the California Republican Party and aligned interests, particularly in the business community, will prioritize the statewide races in our next general election. For good or for bad, this is an extremely Democratic state now--the most Democratic in performance in this presidential election. That doesn't mean it is the most Democratic state, but in performance in Clinton v. Trump, it was.

That means that the strong majority of Decline-to-state voters cast ballots for the Democratic presidential candidate. Also, as mentioned in the graf above, an overwhelming of majority DTS and Republican voters were willing to cast ballots for a Democratic candidate in the Senate race. That's not good news for Republicans.

A big question for 2018 will be, assuming San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is the on Republican in the top-two primary and the main Democratic candidates are Treasurer John Chiang, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, do GOP and conservative Decline-to-state voters vote for Faulconer (who will be very under-resourced) or vote for the Democratic candidate that most appeals to their values? 

Hint: Political science student readers, and there are many in Nooner 101, this is a great item to study in 2018. Perfect thesis paper.

LEGISLATIVE TRIAGE: From guns to sex crimes to texting, the new laws affecting California in 2017 [Jeremy B. White @ SacBee] - "On Jan. 1 we’ll start seeing the results [of the governor's action on bills from 2016]. What follows is a list of the laws taking effect Jan. 1 (some of them passed in prior years but were designed to kick in on Jan. 1, 2016)." 

THE SHIP'S CAPTAIN: Brulte wins high-profile GOP support for re-election bid [Taryn Luna @ SacBee] - "Tim Clark, Donald Trump’s state director; Ron Nehring, national spokesman for Ted Cruz; and Steve Poizner, California chairman for John Kasich, issued a joint statement supporting [Jim] Brulte’s run Friday."

For the record, I endorse Brulte as well. He's a smart, nice, and honest guy, doing the best he can with the cards he has been dealt. He took on the job when he could be making far more money elsewhere and has made vast improvements in party operations. He's focusing on building the party from the ground up, which is necessary. Barring a scandal or some cataclismic event, the GOP will not win a statewide office anytime soon.

Yes, many grassroots activists aren't happy that more money's not being spent on presidentials or other statewides, but that's money down the drain. The strategy of keeping Dems from the supermajority was the correct strategy for the CAGOP, but there was just no way that could be stopped given the playing field coming into the cycle, and the complete underperformance of Trump in California, largely because of a disconnect between many of Trump's policy statements among voters of all stripes in the Golden State. 

If the party focuses on good candidate recruitment among legislative seats for the 2018 cycle, it might be able to reduce the Democratic supermajorities back to majorities. That depends on three factors: 1) candidate recruitment; 2) how the Democrats use their supermajorities; and 3) what Trump does in his first two years. The first is clearly within the party's control. The second is up to the Democratic leadership and Governor Jerry Brown. I have a good idea on the first two, but the third may be the biggest unknown. The top three issues for Trump ("repeal and replace ObamaCare", immigration, and "The Wall", and war with China on trade) are all bad issues for California voters. 

We have one of the most successful healthcare exchanges under the Affordable Care Act and anticipate up to $20 billion in federal funds to support it. We (our business community) rely on immigrant labor more than any other state and thus have more "DREAMers" than any other state, and we have more "criminal" immigrants that have ticky-tack crimes like marijuana possession or driving without a license than any other state. How that is handled and what the bar of "criminals" is will be key. Obviously, murderers is one thing, while driver's licenses is another (convictions from before undoc licenses were legalized). Are we talking felonies or down to misdemeanors.

The Los Angeles-Long Beach port handles the most cargo in the country. A trade war will cripple the port and billions of dollars from the communities associated with that traffic. And, obviously, the computer I'm typing on, the phone next to me were manufactured in China. However, they were designed by high-wage professionals in California. I'm sure that was discussed at last week's roundtable between Trump and high-tech leaders.

Keep that seatbelt on, we're going to be in for a wild ride over the next two years and if anyone tells you they know what happens, just remember P.T. Barnum.

To my reporter friends: I spent so much time on the election result numbers and the above discussion that I didn't make my newspaper rounds this morning. I'll catch up tomorrow.

To readers: Please forgive any typos, as I didn't have time for a read-through. Even with the Metallica momentum, I ran up against the clock. "10...9...8...7...6...5...4...3...2...1...hands up, step back" Okay, I've been watching too many old episodes of "Chopped."

AURAL PLEASURE: John Myers and Marisa Lagos tickle our ears with the final California Politics Podcast of 2016.

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Uduak-Joe Ntuk!

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS 

  • Assemblymember Tom Daly is seeking a qualified individual to provide high-level policy analysis and policy development in his capitol office. Under the direction of the Assemblymember and his chief of staff (COS), this individual will help the Assemblymember pursue his objectives on housing, transportation, parks and other infrastructure policy. Working with the COS and legislative director, this individual will staff bills, review bill coauthoring opportunities, and meet with constituents, legislative advocates, other legislative offices, and with representatives of the Brown Administration. He/she will also analyze legislation authored by other Members, and offer policy analysis on other issues areas as assigned. Candidates must have the ability to manage multiple projects, thrive under deadlines, and work well in a team environment. Salary dependent upon experience. To apply, email resume and brief statement of interest to the Assemblymember’s chief of staff, Rodney Wilson, at Rodney.Wilson@asm.ca.gov.

  • Elevate your public policy impact with a Master of Public Policy (MPP) degree from the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Our unique program emphasizes both “P’s” in MPP enabling current policy practitioners to further develop their policy analysis skills in order to become successful leaders in the policy area they care most about. For California Legislative Staffers with 2 or more years of experience, we’ll waive your application fee and GRE requirement! Apply today: February 1 deadline for priority scholarship consideration. Learn more why we “See Public Policy Differently from Here." Learn more. (publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6/
  • As speculation mounts who will win the Xavier Becerra congressional seat, GLORIA MOLINA -- the first latina elected to the California legislature in an overlapping district -- discusses her trailblazing career in this exclusive interview: vimeo.com/130590360
  • The California Charter Schools Association welcomes back to session the 2017-2018 class of State Legislators and looks forward to working to ensure all kids have quality educational opportunities.  CCSA will work with the Legislature to block any federal efforts that undermine the rights of students or are fundamentally at odds with values held by the vast majority of Californians.  Read CCSA’s letter to Legislators here.
  • Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2) is hiring an Organizing Director in their San Francisco office. The E2 Organizing Director will operate in the nexus of advocacy and development. The position’s primary purpose is to grow and maintain E2’s membership and support its nine chapters and 850+ members throughout the U.S. in order to further our policy advocacy. S/he will also co-manage E2’s database with development staff and provide data and targeting services the advocacy team. S/he will also work closely with our Executive Director to cultivate membership donations. This is a mid-to-senior level position with a competitive compensation package. Full description and application instructions are here.
  • The Sacramento LGBT Center is searching for an Executive & Finance Assistant, which reports to the Executive Director and provides community engagement and administrative support. This position may be part or full-time and is non-exempt. High school diploma is required; associate’s or bachelor’s degree is preferred & 3 years or more in an executive, finance, or related assistant role. Full description.
  • SEIU-UHW is seeking a Political Capacity Organizer, which is responsible for a range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Please submit cover letter, resume and at least 3 references to our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • SEIU-UHW is seeking a Regional Political Organize, which reports to the Political Director, and is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Please submit cover letter, resume and at least 3 references to our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • The Office of Assemblymember Elect Phillip Chen is looking to hire talented and dedicated individuals to join its Capitol and District team in Brea, CA. The following positions are looking to be filled -- District Director, Scheduler, Legislative Assistant, Field Representative/Caseworker. For more information, please visit www.phillipchen.org/jobs-with-phillip
  • Thinking about Graduate School?  Sacramento State’s Department of Public Policy and Administration is now accepting applications for graduate studies in Public Policy & Administration and Urban Land Development. Highly affordable, we offer a rigorous education in a political context with more than 400 alumni working in California State and local government as well as private and non-profit organizations. Priority deadline is December 1; final deadline is March 1 for Fall 2017 admissions. www.csus.edu/ppa     ppa-01@csus.edu
  • Subscribe to the Capitol Morning Report and closely follow who’s doing what each day in California government and politics. We list news conferences, legislative hearings, state board meetings and other events. Plus we add in community news and announcements from political campaigns. More info at www.capitolmr.com

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
The Voters Speak, The Legislature Interprets--not Always Correctly :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
I expect the courts to see the law the same way. That could lead to a test on the newly passed Proposition 54.

Ca GOP Chairman Wins Support For Re-election Bid | The Sacramento Bee
Taryn Luna @
sacbee.com
The go-to source for news on California policy and politics

San Diego Unemployment Drops To 4.3% In November - The San Diego Union-tribune
Phillip Molnar @
sandiegouniontribune.com


Rep. Rohrabacher Not Considering Deputy Secretary Of State Post - The Orange County Register
MARTIN WISCKOL @
ocregister.com
In the wake of being passed over for secretary of state, Costa Mesa Rep. Dana Rohrabacher said Friday he will continue in his congressional post and “probably” seek reelection in 2018 rather than accept a deputy position in the State Department.

Legalization Is Opening Doors For New Marijuana Entrepreneurs. Are We About To See A Pot Gold Rush?
Robin Abcarian @
latimes.com
With recreational marijuana now legal in California, this year's Emerald Cup had a distinctly joyful vibe

Son's Birth Motivates Young Mom To Graduate From Csus | The Sacramento Bee
Diana Lambert @
sacbee.com
By Diana Lambert

Hearst Foundations award $1.2 million to 9 Bay Area recipients
sfgate.com
The biggest awards, $200,000 apiece, went to the San Francisco Ballet, for education outreach; to San Francisco State University, for scholarships; and to Santa Clara University, for its community initiatives for the visual arts program. Bridge Housing Corp. received $100,000 for its community development initiative, and the Museum of the African Diaspora was awarded $100,000 for an educational outreach program for underserved students. An additional $50,000 apiece went to We Teach Science in Burlingame, to support a tutoring and mentoring program, and the Commonwealth Club of California, to help staff its digital media efforts. Additionally, the William Randolph Hearst Foundation continues to administer and fund the United States Senate Youth Program for high school juniors and seniors and the Journalism Awards Program for undergraduates at accredited schools of journalism.

Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg Wins Tentative Funding For Interships For High School Kids | The Sacramento Bee
Anita Chabria @
sacbee.com
By Anita Chabria

California Adds 13,600 Jobs In November, Helping Inch Down The Unemployment Rate
Samantha Masunaga @
latimes.com
California employers added 13,600 jobs in November, nudging the state unemployment rate down to 5.3%, according to data released Friday morning.

Court: Removing 'faithless' Electors May Be Unconstitutional - Politico
politico.com
In their order, the judges said any attempt by Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams to remove electors "after voting has begun" would be "unlikely in light of the text of the Twelfth Amendment." | AP Photo

County Pay Proposal Would Boost Pensions, Too - The San Diego Union-tribune
Lauryn Schroeder @
sandiegouniontribune.com


McConnell Eyed Ryan Zinke for a Senate Seat. Donald Trump Had Other Ideas.
nytimes.com
To Mitch McConnell, Mr. Zinke was an ideal candidate to defeat Senator Jon Tester, a two-term Democrat, in 2018. Then the president-elect intervened.

Orange County Unemployment Rate Down To 3.7% In November Thanks To Retail Hiring - The Orange County Register
MARGOT ROOSEVELT @
ocregister.com
Orange County’s job market showed steady improvement in November, as the jobless rate dropped and payrolls grew, mainly in the retail sector which added sales staff for the holidays.

Slideshow: La Street Artist Sabo Mocks 'rogue One' Premiere With A Message From The Right | 89.3 Kpcc
Southern California Public Radio @
scpr.org
Fake movie posters popped up ahead of the Hollywood premiere of new Star Wars movie "Rogue One" this past weekend. They changed the title graphic to read "Rogue Won," and replaced the franchise's characters with President-elect Donald Trump and some of his most controversial supporters.

Young Doctors Could Work 28 Hours Straight Under New Plan, Despite Possible Dangers
Melody Petersen @
latimes.com
The group that oversees physician training in the U.S. has proposed rolling back rules so that young doctors just out of medical school can work shifts as long as 28 hours.

Sempra Wraps Up Deal To Buy Massive Wind Project In Mexico - The San Diego Union-tribune
Rob Nikolewski @
sandiegouniontribune.com
Sempra Energy, a Fortune 500 company based in San Diego, now owns the biggest wind farm in Mexico.

California: New Laws Target Housing Shortage
eastbaytimes.com
“It instantly creates an opportunity to expand the supply of housing at low rent levels,” said Richmond Mayor Tom Butt. “Everything else we try to do to impact lack of housing takes years. This is something you could do in a weekend.”