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THE Nooner for November 12, 2016

 

 

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California’s vote-counting to-do list: 4.3 million ballots [Jim Miller @ SacBee] - “Roughly 4.3 million late-arriving mail and provisional ballots from Tuesday’s election remain to be counted in California, according to the most recent estimates.”

LA County turned in update of results from 75,950 vote-by-mail ballots yesterday, and has 1,036,710 ballots left to validate and count. Of these, 40.6% are provisional ballots, which will have a lower validity than vote-by-mail ballots.

Most notably, in CA44, Isadore Hall III (D) closed the gap with Nanette Barragán (D), which now stands at 1.8%. Oddly, the exact same margin in SD29 (Ling Ling Chang (R-incumbent) leads over Josh Newman (D)) and AD65 (Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) leads over Young Kim (R-incumbent)). The same margin can be seen in the initiative to speed up the death penalty.

A couple of readers have asked if there is a breakdown by district. Unfortunately, we only get county counts. Note that yesterday's results update in Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Francisco, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Shasta and Tehama counties is no reflected in the unprocessed ballots report. Also, the unprocessed ballots report does not include Imperial, Madera and San Diego, as they hadn't reported as of Thursday night.

AD27 (San Diego): San Jose's Madison Nguyen concedes to Councilman Ash Kalra in tight Assembly race [Christine Mai-Duc @ LAT] - "Madison Nguyen has conceded to fellow Democrat Ash Kalra in their close race for California's 27th Assembly District. Nguyen, a former San Jose City councilwoman, sent a text message to Kalra this morning congratulating him and conceding the race, consultants for both candidates confirmed."

Kalra becomes the first Indo-American in the Legislature.

DOUBLE-X FACTOR: Advocates for women in the Legislature are disappointed, as the number of women is shrinking. Young Kim is trailing in AD65, and Ling Ling Chang's supporters ibn SD29 are anxious about uncounted "late" vote-by-mail ballots (those received on Election Day) and provisional ballots, whichh have leaned strongly Democratic in recent cycles. The positive is that there are more Latina members, with Cecilia Aguilar-Curry (D) picking up AD04, Eloise Gomez Reyes (D) picking up AD47, Blanca Rubio (D) picking up AD48, Sabrina Cervantes (D) picking up AD60, and Sharon Quirk-Silva likely retaking up AD65. The one Latina loss was Patty Lopez (D) in AD39. Abigail Medina trails Marc Steinort in AD40 by 3.4%, a hurdle that might not be able to be overcome, even with uncounted absentees.

Here is the makeup as results currently stand:

 2015-162017-18
Assembly Democrats 52   55
Assembly Republicans 28  25
Senate Democrats 26  26
Senate Republicans 14  13
Assembly Men 60 63
Assembly Women 20 17
Senate Men 30 30
Senate Women 10 10
Assembly Af-Am 10 9
Assembly Asian 9 12
Assembly Latino 20 22
Assembly LGBT 4 3
Senate Af-Am 2 2
Senate Asian 3 3
Senate Latino 5 5
Senate LGBT 3  4

CHANGES IN THE CA CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION  (as of 11/11 pm results):

  • 39 Democrats: no change
  • 14 Republicans: no change
  • 37 men: +2 (Salud Carbajal and Lpu Correa)
  • 16 women: -2 (Lois Capps and Loretta Sanchez)
  • 39 Democrats: no change
  • 14 Republicans: no change
  • 3 African-Americans: no change
  • 6 Asians/South Asians: no change
  • 12 Latinos: +1 (Salud Carbajal)


CONFLICT:
Unfunded or undone: A Trump presidency eyes California policies [CALmatters] - “As a state bluer than Lake Tahoe in sunlight, California has adopted a slew of progressive policies that drive Donald Trump nuts. They combat climate change, protect undocumented immigrants, evangelize for Obamacare and more.”

DEFENSE: Leading California Democrat says the state needs a 'legal wall' against a Trump administration [John Myers @ LAT] - “Eric Bauman, chairman of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, called on Gov. Jerry Brown and legislative leaders to lead an effort on statutes and constitutional amendments to "safeguard" the state from any effort by Trump to roll back existing federal policies on healthcare, immigration and climate change.”

PROP 64: Where are all those plastic bags? California voters decided to get rid of them. [Samantha Masunaga and Ronald D. White @ LAT] - “Customers will either have to bring their own bags or buy a recycled paper bag or sturdier reusable plastic bag at the store for at least 10 cents.”

An astute reader asked yesterday how the plastic bag ban could go into effect the day after the election, when it's only ahead by 4.4% (401,730) and final turnout is likely to be increased by 45.2%.

The answer lies in the state's Constitution. Article II, section 10(a) provides "(a) An initiative statute or referendum approved by a majority of votes thereon takes effect the day after the election unless the measure provides otherwise. If a referendum petition is filed against a part of a statute the remainder shall not be delayed from going into effect."

The 1911 proposition amending the Constitution to provide for citizen initiatives and referenda that such measures would go into effect five days after the certification of the vote by the Secretary of State, unless placed on the ballot by the Legislature for which the measure would go into effect the day following the election. This was amnded in 1970 by Prop 16 to provide the same "day after the election" for citizen initiatives and referenda.

Of course elections were very different in 1970. Permanent vote-by-mail ballots were not allowed. You had to request an "absentee" ballot with a justification (out-of town or disabled). And, there was no such thing as "provisional" ballots.

Counties have 30 days after the election to tabulate and report election results. Thus, with "late" vote-by mail ballots and provisionals that necessarily take time to tabulate, what happens if the results of an initiative or referenda changes inthe  30 days before Secretary of State certification?

Proposition 66, which would speed up the death penalty process, provides that it should take effect immediately and is now in effect pursuant to the state Conatitution. Th measure is aheadby 1.8% (163,933 votes). Urban coastal counties account for the lion's share of unprocessed ballots(about 1.5 million. We can see the problem here.

The Constitution needs to be amended to fix this. Hopefully the Legislature takes action to put an amended on the ballot.  It should be non-controversial.

THE AG: Kamala Harris plans to keep her day job until she begins U.S. Senate term [Phil Wilson @ LAT] - “California’s newly elected U.S. senator, Kamala Harris, said she plans to keep doing her day job as state attorney general until the day she is sworn into her new office. “I have every intention to continue as AG through the end of the year,” Harris told The Times in an interview Thursday.”

HELP WANTED: Duncan Hunter for secretary of defense? Californians floated for Trump administration [Sean Cockerham @ McClatchy] - “California Rep. Duncan Hunter’s name is being tossed out as a potential secretary of defense in the Trump administration. Other California names floated for possible cabinet posts are William Evers, a research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution who is reportedly in the running for education secretary, and venture capitalist Robert Grady, a partner at San Francisco-based Gryphon Investors.”

TRAUMA: For Covered California enrollees, the diagnosis is uncertainty [Courtney Perkes @ SCNG] - “Trump’s election ushers in a time of high anxiety for people with health insurance under President Barack Obama’s law, which expanded coverage to millions but has struggled to find widespread public acceptance.”

THE OC:

O.C. on pace to post highest turnout since 1976 [Martin Wisckol @ OCR] - “As of Friday morning, 836,597 ballots had been counted in Orange County, with 411,049 mail ballots and provisional ballots remaining to be tallied. Even if 18,872 of those remaining ballots are found to be invalid, the county will have had 80-percent turnout of registered voters for the first time since 1976.”

Hillary Clinton turned Orange County blue. Minorities and college-educated women helped her. [Seema Mehta, Christopher Goffard and Anh Do @ LAT] - “It may be small comfort for Democrats who are devastated that Hillary Clinton lost her bid for the White House, but the former secretary of State managed to do something no Democrat has done since the Great Depression — win Orange County.”

Orange County Republicans look to the future under Trump [Martin Wisckol @ OCR] - “[W]hile Donald Trump won the country this year, he lost Orange County – the first time a Democrat has won since 1936. Two high-profile Republican candidates for the state legislature declined to endorse their party’s nominee and two GOP Congress members condemned his lewd “open mic” comments.”

THE IE: What the Inland delegations to Washington and Sacramento look like [Jeff Horseman @ PE]

THE AG LIST: Here's the current list based on conversations with many insiders:

  • Joe Cotchett, attorney
  • Rocky Delgadillo, former LA City Attorney
  • Katherine Feinstein, retired judge and daughter of Dianne Feinstein
  • Mike Feuer, LA City Attorney
  • Dario Frommer, former assemblymember and my fellow UCD law grad, who I later followed in his footsteps as president of the LSA
  • Leticia Perez, Kern County Supervisor and member, California Board of State and Community Corrections
  • Mike Gatto, Assemblymember (termed out)
  • Clark Kelso, professor of law at McGeorge and a Republican nominee appointed to insurance commish in 2000 when the vacancy arose after Chuck Quackenbush was compelled to resign and moved to serve as the state's chief information officer under both Davis and Schwarenegger. Easy confirmation. 
  • Nancy McFadden, executive secretary to Jerry Brown, and a key part of his inner circle
  • Nancy O'Malley, Alameda County DA
  • Ann Ravel, FEC commissioner 
  • Jeff Rosen, Santa Clara County DA
  • Phillip A. Talbert, US attorney for the Eastern District of California

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Marcos Breton, Christoper Cabaldon, Sharon Cvetich, John de los Angeles, Deborah Howard, Wendy James, and Karen Keesler

 

CLASSIFIEDS 

  • LOBBYING SUCCESS BEGINS HERE. Capitol veteran Ray LeBov's Lobbying 101 and 201 seminars give you a comprehensive, real-world picture of lobbying in California -- the people, processes and best practices critical to your success. December 8-9, $275 each / $500 for both. Lobbying 101 covers the Legislative process and Legislative advocacy. Lobbying 201 explores the equally critical areas of Budget Advocacy, Regulatory Agency Advocacy, Lobbying the Administration and Media Relations. Essential for lobbying firm principals / staff, organizations / agencies that employ lobbyists, newcomers to the profession. Information / registration:  www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.
  • Come join Sacramento's Finest Election Gurus/Nerds in dissecting the 2016 Election, hosted by the Harry S Truman Democratic Club of Greater Sacramento.  Join the Truman Club on November 17 for our final luncheon of the year where we break bread and break down the 2016 election.  Carol Dahmen-Eckery, Scott Lay, and Roger Salazar will help us understand just what the hell happened in the United States, California, and the Sacramento region this Election Cycle.  Hug therapist will be on call (we jest). No host bar (we don't jest). Thursday, November 17 at 11:30-1:00 p.m. at the Sterling Hotel.  For tickets, visit: trumanclub.com
  • Thinking about Graduate School?  Sacramento State’s Department of Public Policy and Administration is now accepting applications for graduate studies in Public Policy & Administration and Urban Land Development. Highly affordable, we offer a rigorous education in a political context with more than 400 alumni working in California State and local government as well as private and non-profit organizations. Priority deadline is December 1; final deadline is March 1 for Fall 2017 admissions. www.csus.edu/ppa     ppa-01@csus.edu
  • SACRAMENTO-BASED THRILLER wins national honors for Best First Novel, Best Political Thriller & Best Female PI/Sleuth. "Entertaining whodunnit told with humor and intellect" ONE MURDER MORE by Kris Calvin features a woman lobbyist as the amateur sleuth, while the cast of suspects includes two CA Governors (one past, one present) & a Senate Fellow! Order now from Amazon or your favorite bookstore at www.kriscalvin.com  $13.99 trade paper $1.99 ebook!

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Hillary Clinton Ceded Working Class To Billionaire Donald Trump | The Sacramento Bee
Dan Morain @
sacbee.com
Editorial page editor, political affairs columnist and editorial writer

San Jose's Madison Nguyen Concedes To Councilman Ash Kalra In Tight Assembly Race
latimes.com
Update on 'Essential Politics: More than 4 million votes left to count in California, Kamala Harris won't leave her day job anytime soo...

Trump U Highlights A Slew Of Lawsuits Facing President-elect - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
Less than two months before he is sworn in as president, Donald Trump is due to testify to a jury in San Diego in a fraud suit by thousands of students who attended the real estate seminars once known as Trump University. It is one of dozens of legal cases that will accompany him to the White House.

Criminal Justice Reform Rolls On In California, Much To The Chagrin Of Police Leaders | 89.3 Kpcc
Southern California Public Radio @
scpr.org
Another defeat at the ballot box this week for California law enforcement leaders. For months, many police chiefs, sheriffs and prosecutors urged voters to reject Proposition 57, which will give thousands of state prisoners an early opportunity to be released.

Leading California Democrat Says The State Needs A 'legal Wall' Against A Trump Administration
latimes.com
Update on 'Essential Politics: More than 4 million votes left to count in California, Kamala Harris won't leave her day job anytime soo...

California Has At Least 4.3 Million Unprocessed Ballots | The Sacramento Bee
Jim Miller @
sacbee.com
The go-to source for news on California policy and politics

No, Jerry Brown Hasn't Declared California A 'separate Nation' | Politifact California
subject @
politifact.com
Following Donald Trump’s upset victory on Election Day, a group in deep blue California gained attention for its calls to create a sovereign Golden State.

LAPD Breaks Up Anti-trump Protest Downtown; About 150 Are Arrested
latimes.com
About 150 anti-Donald Trump protesters were arrested in downtown Los Angeles early Saturday morning after refusing the LAPD's order to disperse on what marked the fourth night of unrest following the presidential election. One by one, police led the protesters out of Grand Park, securing their...

Prop 64: Pot Tax To Pay For Scientific Research Of Marijuana Use | 89.3 Kpcc
Southern California Public Radio @
scpr.org
An employee holds one of several strains of medical marijuana sold at a dispensary in downtown Los Angeles on Monday afternoon, Feb. 29, 2016. Maya Sugarman/KPCC

What It's Like To Defend Trump
latimes.com
Ryan Sidebottom attends school assembly and tries to defend President-elect Donald Trump. 

BART video verbal lashing reflects uptick in hate since Trump win
sfgate.com
A viral video posted Friday showed a woman verbally accosting a BART passenger by calling her a “stalker from the Middle East” — the latest in a series of altercations following the election of Donald Trump. Ivet Lolham, posted the video on Facebook, shortly after midnight with a caption that read, I was on the BART going home after a long day and this lady right here heard me talk Assyrian on the phone. In the wake of Trump’s election, people have expressed heightened levels of fear on social media and reports of animosity throughout California are at a high. “As a result of the election and as a result of the rhetoric used throughout the entire election with the misogynistic comments and hateful comments targeting Muslims and all people of color and minorities, the people who supported him throughout this campaign became more and more empowered,” Maher said. Esra Altun, a 19-year-old Muslim student at San Jose State University, was attacked a day after the presidential election. A San Francisco resident, Divya Dhar, posted on Facebook Thursday that she was feeling scared after a man shoved her, pointed a knife at her and yelled a racial slur “very aggressively for several minutes.” In a separate incident, a student from Shasta High School in Redding handed out deportation letters to classmates of color a day following the election, the Record Searchlight newspaper of Redding reported. A female student from Woodside High School on the Peninsula was seen on video being physically attacked by classmates Wednesday for supporting Trump. During his campaign, he promised harsher immigration policies and the deportations of undocumented immigrants.

Meet The Three Latinos Southern California Voters Just Elected To Congress
latimes.com
Southern California voters elected three Latinos to fill open seats in Congress, increasing the diversity of the state’s delegation in Washington.

Gender Politics: Why Women Did Not Unite to Vote Against Donald Trump
nytimes.com
Party has long outweighed gender when people vote. This election turned out to be no different.

The Toughest Election In Recent Memory Is Over, But The Anger And Division Remain - The Orange County Register
PETER LARSEN @
ocregister.com
Devon McLaren, teacher

Local Trump protests wan on Friday, but will ramp up over weekend
sfgate.com
The protest is expected to focus on Trump’s election as president and the U.S. Electoral College system, according to event organizers, who say it will be nonviolent. A rally scheduled to take place at 3 p.m. Sunday at Oakland’s Lake Merritt called for peaceful demonstrators to join hands in a circle around the roughly 3.4 mile lake “to stand up against racism, sexism, homophobia, and Islamophobia.” Protesters told people to wear safety pins as they march to Ocean Beach to “show support for victims of hate.” [...] protests have occurred night and day. Thirty people were arrested Wednesday night in Oakland for alleged offenses that include vandalism, assault on an officer, failure to disperse, unlawful assembly and possession of a firearm, officials said. The 11 arrests, as well as seven citations, were for crimes such as assault on police officers, vandalism, failure to disperse and public intoxication.

Growing Anxiety Among Bay Area Immigrants About Future Deportations
mercurynews.com
Donald Trump, Immigration

President-elect Donald Trump Adds Congressman Devin Nunes To Transition Team | Fresno Bee
Rory Appleton @
fresnobee.com
By Rory Appleton

LAPD Officer's Gun, Handcuffs Stolen In Fight During Anti-trump Protest
latimes.com
A Los Angeles police officer’s pistol was stolen Thursday night during a fight with a woman who attacked him with his handcuffs while protesters flooded downtown Los Angeles

House Democrats Won't Delay Leadership Elections - Politico
politico.com
House Democrats will hold their leadership elections Nov. 17, a senior Democratic aide confirmed to POLITICO.

Michigan Voters Say Trump Could See Their Problems â
nytimes.com
In Macomb County, where the term “Reagan Democrats” was coined, voters found in Mr. Trump a candidate who understood the importance of trade and manufacturing.

CSU Board To Consider Tuition Hike For Next Year - The Orange County Register
ANDREW EDWARDS @
ocregister.com
Cal State students next year might see the first tuition increase systemwide in more than five years.

3rd night of anti-Trump protests begins in S.F., Oakland
sfgate.com
Small groups of anti-Trump protesters turned out in San Francisco and Oakland on Friday evening, marking a third - albeit less lively - night of demonstrations against the president-elect. About 100 people gathered on San Francisco’s Market Street near the Embarcadero carrying signs like “Not my president” and “Teach Peace” and chanting “Donald Trump has got to go.” At both events, police presence was heavy after rallies in the cities on previous nights drew thousands. Many in the Bay Area and across the nation are angry over Tuesday’s unexpected election of the billionaire Republican and reality TV star.