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THE Nooner for November 7, 2016
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ELECTION COVERAGE: I'll be providing updates on Twitter @scottlay hashtag #thenooner, and perhaps an email or two--depending on how late the evening goes. For paid subscribers, I will host a webinar on Wednesday, November 9 at 1:30pm. Access information to follow.
Well, folks, we are almost there. Half the country is going to be pissed tomorrow night, but we don't know which half. It appears that Hillary has roughly a 3% lead nationally, and the electoral map is a real challenge for Trump. In California, early voting locations appeared to have long lines, and around 25% of voters had returned vote-by-mail ballots through Friday.
The widely respected Larry Sabado and Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia puts the Electoral College as Hillary at 322 and Trump at 216. They put the Senate at 50-50, meaning that Tim Kaine may be a very busy vice-president. The House they (and I) believe the GOP will lose 13 seats, but will stay GOP (Dems need a 30 seat pickup for a majority). Paul Ryan, if he maintains his speakership, will have more thorns in his ass, as the caucus moves to the right.
I would bet on Paul Ryan keeping the gavel. While the conservative "Freedom Caucus" is powerful, they don't have any stars (sorry Chavffits) to put up as a speaker candidate in the GOP caucus.
A little birdie whispered in my ear from polling of Californians who have returned absentees has incumbents Darrell Issa (CA49), Jeff Denham (CA10) behind, while Ami Bera (CA07) is leading. Ro Khanna is leading in CA17 over incumbent Mike Honda. I expect more data later today on other races.
Unlike recent cycles, there's going to be "live" exit polling results all day tomorrow, starting at 8am Eastern in a project of Slate, CNN, and the New York Times with data provided by Votecastr. This is stirring up controversy, as the major networks have all agreed to not make projections until all polls are closed. Anyway, we'll be staring at our computer screens beginning at 5am PST tomorrow.
Today at 1:30, Bernie Sanders will be hosting an event on the West Steps of the Capitol to promote Prop. 61, the pharmaceutical prices initiative that has had many of us uncertain where to side.
I'll give you my guesses tomorrow--if I had an election contest this year--just to basically take all my clothes and roll in honey and oats and feel stupid. There are a lot of races I still don't have a favorite. But, I will bare all tomorrow.
US SENATE: Senate candidates crisscross Southern California making last-minute pleas for votes [Phil Wilson @ LAT] - "U.S. Senate candidates Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez spent their final Sunday before election day in their political comfort zones, issuing their final pleas for support and urging Southern Californians to vote."
CA07 (East Sacto County): Ami Bera, Scott Jones hit the streets in tight Sacramento-area House race [Christopher Cadelago @ SacBee] - "Nearly 116,000 ballots from the 7th District have been returned by voters, and the more voters the better things generally go for Democrats. Some 44 percent of the ballots have come from Democrats, vs. 36 percent from Republicans."
CA44 (Carson): Race takes center stage as heated L.A. County congressional campaign approaches finish line [Javier Panzar @ LAT] - "The race between Compton state Sen. Isadore Hall and former Hermosa Beach Councilwoman Nanette Barragán to replace Rep. Janice Hahn has taken a sharper, racial edge as election day approaches and the intraparty contest tightens."
Watch these California congressional races if Democrats have a good election night [Sarah D. Wire @ LAT]
DEM-ON-DEM: Dueling Dems: Four issues may hinge on which brand of Democrat wins [Laurel Rosenhall @ CALmatters] - "In a state with a deepening blue hue, the result is some fierce Dem-on-Dem contests. On one side are progressives backed by traditional party allies such as unions, environmentalists and teachers; on the other side is a more conservative mod squad that has the support of big business, oil companies and advocates for a more aggressive shakeup of public education."
PROP 60: Meet the man who started the porn world’s condom wars [April Dembosky] - "The man behind Proposition 60 — and all those billboards — is Michael Weinstein, president of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, and a long-time maverick in gay activist circles."
PROP 64: We read it so you don’t have to: 10 things you need to know about Proposition 64, which would legalize pot in California [Patrick McGreevy @ LAT] - "Although Californians will be able to possess and grow marijuana immediately if it passes, people will not have a place to legally buy nonmedical marijuana until stores are licensed — and the state has until Jan. 1, 2018, to begin issuing retail licenses. State officials estimate it will take up to a year to develop the regulations that will be applied to those who grow, transport, test and sell cannabis."
$$$: Brown says pension reform still on his agenda, but is it? [Dan Walters @ SacBee] - "Four years ago, Brown proposed a fairly modest reform of public employee pensions but, as is his wont, settled for less than a half-a-loaf when the Democrat-controlled Legislature, under pressure from unions, balked at a major overhaul."
THE AG LIST: Here's the current list based on conversations with many insiders:
SACTOWN: Downtown Sacramento: ‘Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded’ [Tony Bizjak @ SacBee]:
Last week the city began issuing tickets to drivers who fail to feed downtown meters after 6 p.m. That sparked some anger and even boycott threats on the internet.
“My friends are starting to debate going to DT now solely because of the parking. Bad move Sac,” one Reddit commenter said."
Downtown Sac has changed so much since when I first worked here 22 years ago. It was empty after 5pm, except for the candidate fundraising circuit. I'm on the quiet side next to Southside Park, but an easy walk to the Golden 1 Center and the Capitol. Restaurants are packed--South is constantly full, as is the new The Coconut on T, the sister to the J Street restaurant.
People complain about the parking situation, but there's plenty of parking if you are willing to walk a few blocks. And, Uber is perfect, as is public transportation, of course. Come downtown and enjoy it!
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to my former fiscal director Cary Jung and Gilbert Martinez!
Senate Candidates Crisscross Southern California Making Last-minute Pleas For Votes
U.S. Senate candidates Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez spend their final Sunday before election day in their political comfort zones, issuing their final pleas for votes.
How Kamala Harris Turned U.S. Senate Contest Into A Cakewalk - San Francisco Chronicle
With a 24-point lead in the final Field Poll, state Attorney General Kamala Harris has turned what was supposed to be a hotly contested race for U.S. Senate into a romp — with the only highlights being a string of bloopers by her opponent, Rep. Loretta Sanchez.
Ca Gov. Jerry Brown Says Pension Reform Still On Agenda | The Sacramento Bee
Dan Walters @ sacbee.com
Observations on California and its politics
California Ballot Propositions Rake In A Record $473 Million In Campaign Cash
Nearly $500 million has been donated to influence the outcome of measures on the California ballot in November
Here's How Voter Data Could Get Hacked, But Orange County Says Rigged Election Is Almost Impossible - The Orange County Register
JORDAN GRAHAM @ ocregister.com
With all the talk about election rigging in the lead-up to Tuesday, the bad news is that hackers might be able to find and compromise and maybe even change California voter registration databases.
Legal Marijuana Could Be Next Big Tobacco -- Prevention, Treatment Needed
Reefer madness cured by legalization, education, treatment? People dependent on marijuana say that Prop. 64 could fund prevention programs.
Need Guidance At The Ballot Box Tuesday? Here Are Four Final Takeaways To Help You Cast Your Vote
George Skelton on four key takeaways ahead of Tuesdays election.
California Secession Group To Hold Meet-up At State Capitol - Sfgate
An organization hoping to facilitate the secession of California from the Union is holding a meet and greet on the Capitol steps in Sacramento next Wednesday, November 9, 2016.
Hillary Clinton Endorses Democrat Emilio Huerta In Central Valley Congressional Race
Update on 'Essential Politics: Nancy Pelosi will vote to legalize pot in California, Rep. Duncan Hunter repays campaign cash'
Ami Bera, Scott Jones Hit The Streets In Tight Race For Congress | The Sacramento Bee
Christopher Cadelago @ sacbee.com
The go-to source for news on California policy and politics
Race Takes Center Stage As Heated L.A. County Congressional Campaign Approaches Finish Line
Poll: Democrats And The Elderly Loom Large In Early Voting - Politico
An elderly American casts a ballot on Nov.1, 2016, in Eau Claire, Wisconsin as a caregiver sits nearby during an early voting period one week before the presidential election. | Getty
This Is How You'll Know California Republicans Had A Good Election Night
These are the races to watch in California if Republicans stave off a Democratic wave
These Ladies Were Born Before Women Had Right To Vote - The Orange County Register
GRACE WYLER @ ocregister.com
Census data show about 400,000 living American women were born in or before 1920, the year women won the right to vote.
Thousands Of Early Voters Hit The Polls In L.A. County. 'i Have Never Seen Such Long Lines'
Thousands of people stood in long lines at six locations throughout the county.
Bay Area to see sunny skies, warm temperatures on Election Day
Bay Area to see sunny skies, warm temperatures on Election Day Bad weather wonâÂÂt be an excuse for any Bay Area voters thinking of not heading to the polls Election Day. San Franciscans lining up to cast their ballots are expected to see mostly sunny skies and balmy temperatures on Tuesday, forecasters said. While there might be some patches of fog along the coast, Benjamin said voters can expect to see sunny skies for the most part, especially in downtown San Francisco where temperatures are expected to reach 70 degrees.
Our Final Map Has Clinton Winning With 352 Electoral Votes. Compare Your Picks With Ours.
Update on 'Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push'
Lady Gaga: Melania Trump Anti-bullying Pledge Is 'hypocrisy' - Politico
After telling fellow lawmakers he wouldn't campaign with the GOP nominee, the speaker is emphatically urging voters to elect him.
Debate Over Risk of E-Cigarettes Plays Out on California Ballot
Proposition 56 would tax e-cigarettes in the state for the first time, despite evidence suggesting e-cigarettes are less harmful and may help people quit smoking.