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THE Nooner for November 7, 2016

 

 

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ELECTION COVERAGE: I'll be providing updates on Twitter @scottlay hashtag #thenooner, and perhaps an email or two--depending on how late the evening goes. For paid subscribers, I will host a webinar on Wednesday, November 9 at 1:30pm. Access information to follow.

E-1

Well, folks, we are almost there. Half the country is going to be pissed tomorrow night, but we don't know which half. It appears that Hillary has roughly a 3% lead nationally, and the electoral map is a real challenge for Trump. In California, early voting locations appeared to have long lines, and around 25% of voters had returned vote-by-mail ballots through Friday. 

The widely respected Larry Sabado and Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia puts the Electoral College as Hillary at 322 and Trump at 216. They put the Senate at 50-50, meaning that Tim Kaine may be a very busy vice-president. The House they (and I) believe the GOP will lose 13 seats, but will stay GOP (Dems need a 30 seat pickup for a majority). Paul Ryan, if he maintains his speakership, will have more thorns in his ass, as the caucus moves to the right.

I would bet on Paul Ryan keeping the gavel. While the conservative "Freedom Caucus" is powerful, they don't have any stars (sorry Chavffits) to put up as a speaker candidate in the GOP caucus.

A little birdie whispered in my ear from polling of Californians who have returned absentees has incumbents Darrell Issa (CA49), Jeff Denham (CA10) behind, while Ami Bera (CA07) is leading. Ro Khanna is leading in CA17 over incumbent Mike Honda. I expect more data later today on other races.

Unlike recent cycles, there's going to be "live" exit polling results all day tomorrow, starting at 8am Eastern in a project of Slate, CNN, and the New York Times with data provided by Votecastr. This is stirring up controversy, as the major networks have all agreed to not make projections until all polls are closed. Anyway, we'll be staring at our computer screens beginning at 5am PST tomorrow.

Today at 1:30, Bernie Sanders will be hosting an event on the West Steps of the Capitol to promote Prop. 61, the pharmaceutical prices initiative that has had many of us uncertain where to side.

I'll give you my guesses tomorrow--if I had an election contest this year--just to basically take all my clothes and roll in honey and oats and feel stupid. There are a lot of races I still don't have a favorite. But, I will bare all tomorrow.

US SENATE: Senate candidates crisscross Southern California making last-minute pleas for votes [Phil Wilson @ LAT] - "U.S. Senate candidates Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez spent their final Sunday before election day in their political comfort zones, issuing their final pleas for support and urging Southern Californians to vote."

CA07 (East Sacto County): Ami Bera, Scott Jones hit the streets in tight Sacramento-area House race [Christopher Cadelago @ SacBee] - "Nearly 116,000 ballots from the 7th District have been returned by voters, and the more voters the better things generally go for Democrats. Some 44 percent of the ballots have come from Democrats, vs. 36 percent from Republicans."

CA44 (Carson): Race takes center stage as heated L.A. County congressional campaign approaches finish line [Javier Panzar @ LAT] - "The race between Compton state Sen. Isadore Hall and former Hermosa Beach Councilwoman Nanette Barragán to replace Rep. Janice Hahn has taken a sharper, racial edge as election day approaches and the intraparty contest tightens."

Watch these California congressional races if Democrats have a good election night [Sarah D. Wire @ LAT]

DEM-ON-DEM: Dueling Dems: Four issues may hinge on which brand of Democrat wins [Laurel Rosenhall @ CALmatters] - "In a state with a deepening blue hue, the result is some fierce Dem-on-Dem contests. On one side are progressives backed by traditional party allies such as unions, environmentalists and teachers; on the other side is a more conservative mod squad that has the support of big business, oil companies and advocates for a more aggressive shakeup of public education."

PROP 60: Meet the man who started the porn world’s condom wars [April Dembosky] - "The man behind Proposition 60 — and all those billboards — is Michael Weinstein, president of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, and a long-time maverick in gay activist circles."

PROP 64: We read it so you don’t have to: 10 things you need to know about Proposition 64, which would legalize pot in California [Patrick McGreevy @ LAT] - "Although Californians will be able to possess and grow marijuana immediately if it passes, people will not have a place to legally buy nonmedical marijuana until stores are licensed — and the state has until Jan. 1, 2018, to begin issuing retail licenses. State officials estimate it will take up to a year to develop the regulations that will be applied to those who grow, transport, test and sell cannabis."

$$$: Brown says pension reform still on his agenda, but is it? [Dan Walters @ SacBee] - "Four years ago, Brown proposed a fairly modest reform of public employee pensions but, as is his wont, settled for less than a half-a-loaf when the Democrat-controlled Legislature, under pressure from unions, balked at a major overhaul."

VOTE-BY-MAIL REPORT (through 11/4/2016) from Political Data Inc.

  • Total VBMs: 11,721,880
  • Total VBMs returned: 4,579,453
  • Percent returned: 40.6%
  • Dems share of VR/VBM share of requested/VBM share of returned: 45%/45%/46%
  • Reps: 26%/27%/32%
  • Other: 29%/28%/22%
  • Latino: 24%/22%/15%
  • Asian: 9%/10%/10%
  • 18-35: 28%/27%/13%
  • 35-54: 34%/31%/26%
  • 55+: 39%/42%/61%

THE AG LIST: Here's the current list based on conversations with many insiders:

  • Joe Cotchett, attorney
  • Rocky Delgadillo, former LA City Attorney
  • Katherine Feinstein, retired judge and daughter of Dianne Feinstein
  • Mike Feuer, LA City Attorney
  • Dario Frommer, former assemblymember and my fellow UCD law grad, who I later followed in his footsteps as president of the LSA
  • Leticia Perez, Kern County Supervisor and member, California Board of State and Community Corrections
  • Mike Gatto, Assemblymember (termed out)
  • Clark Kelso, professor of law at McGeorge and a Republican nominee appointed to insurance commish in 2000 when the vacancy arose after Chuck Quackenbush was compelled to resign and moved to serve as the state's chief information officer under both Davis and Schwarenegger. Easy confirmation. 
  • Nancy McFadden, executive secretary to Jerry Brown, and a key part of his inner circle
  • Nancy O'Malley, Alameda County DA
  • Ann Ravel, FEC commissioner 
  • Jeff Rosen, Santa Clara County DA
  • Phillip A. Talbert, US attorney for the Eastern District of California

 

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Woman In Energy

 

Here are the newspaper endorsements in competitive races:

  • CA07 (East Sacto County): Sacramento Bee: Ami Bera (incumbent D over R)
  • CA10 (Modesto): Modesto Bee: Michael Eggman (D over incumbent R)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Joss): East Bay Times: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Joss): San Francisco: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Jose): San Jose Mercury News: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): San Luis Obispo Tribune: Salud Carbajal (D over R)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): Santa Barbara News Press: Justin Fareed (R over D)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): Ventura County Star: Salud Carbajal (D over R)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): LA Daily News: Steve Knight  (R incumbent over D)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): San Bernardino Sun: Steve Knight (R incumbent over D)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): Santa Clarita Signal: Steve Knight (R incumbent over D)
  • CA31 (San Bernardino): LA Daily News: Pete Aguilar (D incumbent over R)
  • CA31 (San Bernardino): San Bernardino Sun: Pete Aguilar (D incumbent over R)
  • CA36 (Coachella): Desert Sun: Raul Ruiz (incumbent D over R)
  • CA36 (Coachella): Riverside Press-Enterprise: Raul Ruiz (incumbent D over R)
  • CA44 (Carson): Los Angeles Times: Nanette Barragan (D over D)
  • CA44 (Carson): Daily Breeze: Nanette Barragan (D over D)
  • CA46 (Santa Ana): Orange County Register: Lou Correa (D over D)
  • CA49 (Carlsbad): Orange County Register: Darrell Issa (R incumbent over D)
  • CA49 (Carlsbad): San Diego U-T: Darrel Issa (R incumbent over D)
  • CA52 (San Diego): San Diego U-T: Scott Peters (D incumbent over R)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Daily Democrat: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): East Bay Times: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Sacramento Bee: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Santa Rosa Press Democrat: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD09 (East Bay): East Bay Times: Nancy Skinner (D over D)
  • SD09 (East Bay): San Francisco Chronicle: Nancy Skinner (D) (pver D)
  • SD11 (San Francisco): San Francisco Chronicle: Scott Wiener (D over D)
  • SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Vly): Antelope Valley Press: Scott Wilk (R over D)
  • SD25 (Pasadena): LA Daily News: Michael Antonovich (R over D)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Malibu Times: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Santa Clarita Valley Signal: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Ventura County Star: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Ventura County Reporter: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): LA Daily News: Steve Fazio (R over D)
  • SD27 (Ventura): San Bernardino Sun: Steve Fazio (R over D)
  • SD29 (Fullerton-Diamond Bar): San Gabriel Valley Tribune: Ling Ling Chang (R over D)
  • SD35 (South Bay): Daily Breeze: Steven Bradford (D over D)
  • AD14 (Concord): East Bay Times: Mae Torlakson (D over (D)
  • AD14 (Concord): San Francisco Chronicle: Tim Grayson (D over D)
  • AD24 (Palo Alto/Mountain View): San Jose Mercury News: Marc Berman (D over D)
  • AD24 (Palo Alto/Mountain View): San Jose Mercury News: Marc Berman (D over D)
  • AD27 (San Jose): San Jose Mercury News: Madison Nguyen (D over D)
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): East Bay Times: Catharine Baker (R incumbent over D)
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): San Francisco Chronicle: Catharine Baker (R incumbent over D)
  • AD31 (Fresno): Fresno Bee: Joaquin Arambula (D over D)
  • AD39 (East San Fernando): San Bernardino Sun: Patty Lopez (incumbent D over D)
  • AD35 (San Luis Obispo): San Luis Obispo Tribune: Dawn Ortiz-Legg (D over R)
  • AD38 (Santa Clarita): Ventura County Star: Christy Smith (D over R)
  • AD40 (Redlands): Riverside Press-Enterprise: Marc Steinorth (incumbent R over D)
  • AD43 (Glendale): LA Daily News: Laura Friedman (D over D)
  • AD46 (Sherman Oaks): LA Daily News: Angela Rupert (D over incumbent D)
  • AD47 (Rialto): Riverside Press Enterprise: Cheryl Brown (incumbent D over D)
  • AD47 (Rialto): San Bernardino Sun: Cheryl Brown (incumbent D over D)
  • AD60 (Corona): Riverside Press Enterprise: Eric Linder (incumbent R over D)
  • AD65 (Fullerton): Orange County Register: Young Kim (incumbent R over D)
  • AD66 (Torrance): Daily Breeze: David Hadley (incumbent R over D)

SACTOWN: Downtown Sacramento: ‘Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded’ [Tony Bizjak @ SacBee]:

Last week the city began issuing tickets to drivers who fail to feed downtown meters after 6 p.m. That sparked some anger and even boycott threats on the internet.

“My friends are starting to debate going to DT now solely because of the parking. Bad move Sac,” one Reddit commenter said."

Downtown Sac has changed so much since when I first worked here 22 years ago. It was empty after 5pm, except for the candidate fundraising circuit. I'm on the quiet side next to Southside Park, but an easy walk to the Golden 1 Center and the Capitol. Restaurants are packed--South is constantly full, as is the new The Coconut on T, the sister to the J Street restaurant.

People complain about the parking situation, but there's plenty of parking if you are willing to walk a few blocks. And, Uber is perfect, as is public transportation, of course. Come downtown and enjoy it! 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to my former fiscal director Cary Jung and Gilbert Martinez

CLASSIFIEDS 

  • On Saturday, November 12th, join the National Women's Political Caucus of California (NWPC CA) at our convention “Celebration + Conversation” at the Hyatt Place in downtown San Jose. Hosted by our Silicon Valley chapter, we modified the convention to a day long event which includes a luncheon keynote by U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer, conversations with former Superintendent of Public Instruction, Delaine Eastin and Emerge CA Executive Director, Kimberly Ellis, and a panel on appointments at the federal, state, and local boards. $100 for members/ $125 for nonmembers. Learn more: www.bit.ly/SanJoseConvention or contact convention chair Angelica Ramos at angelica@nwpcsiliconvalley.org
  • LOBBYING SUCCESS BEGINS HERE. Capitol veteran Ray LeBov's Lobbying 101 and 201 seminars give you a comprehensive, real-world picture of lobbying in California -- the people, processes and best practices critical to your success. December 8-9, $275 each / $500 for both. Lobbying 101 covers the Legislative process and Legislative advocacy. Lobbying 201 explores the equally critical areas of Budget Advocacy, Regulatory Agency Advocacy, Lobbying the Administration and Media Relations. Essential for lobbying firm principals / staff, organizations / agencies that employ lobbyists, newcomers to the profession. Information / registration:  www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.
  • Coming, November 10 in Sacramento: A Post-Mortem of the Election. Join former Governor Gray Davis, LAT columnist George Skelton, Asm. Matthew Harper and nearly two dozen other speakers for a day-long conference examining the results of the November 8 election. Hosted by Capitol Weekly, UC Center, Leadership California Institute and the McGeorge Capital Center for Law and Policy.  Click here, or call 916 444 7665 for details
  • Come join Sacramento's Finest Election Gurus/Nerds in dissecting the 2016 Election, hosted by the Harry S Truman Democratic Club of Greater Sacramento.  Join the Truman Club on November 17 for our final luncheon of the year where we break bread and break down the 2016 election.  Carol Dahmen-Eckery, Scott Lay, and Roger Salazar will help us understand just what the hell happened in the United States, California, and the Sacramento region this Election Cycle.  Hug therapist will be on call (we jest). No host bar (we don't jest). Thursday, November 17 at 11:30-1:00 p.m. at the Sterling Hotel.  For tickets, visit: trumanclub.com
  • Thinking about Graduate School?  Sacramento State’s Department of Public Policy and Administration is now accepting applications for graduate studies in Public Policy & Administration and Urban Land Development. Highly affordable, we offer a rigorous education in a political context with more than 400 alumni working in California State and local government as well as private and non-profit organizations. Priority deadline is December 1; final deadline is March 1 for Fall 2017 admissions. www.csus.edu/ppa     ppa-01@csus.edu
  • SACRAMENTO-BASED THRILLER wins national honors for Best First Novel, Best Political Thriller & Best Female PI/Sleuth. "Entertaining whodunnit told with humor and intellect" ONE MURDER MORE by Kris Calvin features a woman lobbyist as the amateur sleuth, while the cast of suspects includes two CA Governors (one past, one present) & a Senate Fellow! Order now from Amazon or your favorite bookstore at www.kriscalvin.com  $13.99 trade paper $1.99 ebook!
  • Oakland based public relations, public affairs and Democratic political consulting firm, with a portfolio of high-profile clients seeks an experienced and talented communicator to join our team. Should have at least two years of experience. This is not a campaign job but campaign experience is valued. Resumes, .pdf preferred, to oaklandprsearch@gmail.com

 

Independent Expenditure Reports

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Cal Fire Local 2881 Small Contributor Pac Rick Augustine (Support) $1,226 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
Cal Fire Local 2881 Small Contributor Pac William Kiel (Support) $1,226 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
Cal Fire Local 2881 Small Contributor Pac Jeff Nelson (Support) $1,226 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
Cal Fire Local 2881 Small Contributor Pac Dave Rickards (Support) $1,226 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
Community Support Pac Warren Furutani (Support) $19,400 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
Equality California Political Action Committee Scott Wiener (Support) $11,124 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members, School Employees, And Public And Private Employee Associations Ash Kalra (Support) $2,310 11/03/2016 11/06/2016
Robert F. Kennedy Democratic Club Scott Wiener (Support) $88,003 11/02/2016 11/06/2016
San Francisco Parent Political Action Committee Scott Wiener (Support) $5,000 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Committee On Political Education (cope) Sponsored By: South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Ash Kalra (Support) $748 11/04/2016 11/06/2016
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Committee On Political Education (cope) Sponsored By: South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Ash Kalra (Support) $1,064 11/05/2016 11/06/2016
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Senate Candidates Crisscross Southern California Making Last-minute Pleas For Votes
latimes.com
U.S. Senate candidates Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez spend their final Sunday before election day in their political comfort zones, issuing their final pleas for votes.

How Kamala Harris Turned U.S. Senate Contest Into A Cakewalk - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
With a 24-point lead in the final Field Poll, state Attorney General Kamala Harris has turned what was supposed to be a hotly contested race for U.S. Senate into a romp — with the only highlights being a string of bloopers by her opponent, Rep. Loretta Sanchez.

Ca Gov. Jerry Brown Says Pension Reform Still On Agenda | The Sacramento Bee
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Observations on California and its politics

California Ballot Propositions Rake In A Record $473 Million In Campaign Cash
latimes.com
Nearly $500 million has been donated to influence the outcome of measures on the California ballot in November

Here's How Voter Data Could Get Hacked, But Orange County Says Rigged Election Is Almost Impossible - The Orange County Register
JORDAN GRAHAM @
ocregister.com
With all the talk about election rigging in the lead-up to Tuesday, the bad news is that hackers might be able to find and compromise and maybe even change California voter registration databases.

Legal Marijuana Could Be Next Big Tobacco -- Prevention, Treatment Needed
mercurynews.com
Reefer madness cured by legalization, education, treatment? People dependent on marijuana say that Prop. 64 could fund prevention programs.

Need Guidance At The Ballot Box Tuesday? Here Are Four Final Takeaways To Help You Cast Your Vote
latimes.com
George Skelton on four key takeaways ahead of Tuesdays election.

California Secession Group To Hold Meet-up At State Capitol - Sfgate
sfgate.com
An organization hoping to facilitate the secession of California from the Union is holding a meet and greet on the Capitol steps in Sacramento next Wednesday, November 9, 2016.

Hillary Clinton Endorses Democrat Emilio Huerta In Central Valley Congressional Race
latimes.com
Update on 'Essential Politics: Nancy Pelosi will vote to legalize pot in California, Rep. Duncan Hunter repays campaign cash'

Ami Bera, Scott Jones Hit The Streets In Tight Race For Congress | The Sacramento Bee
Christopher Cadelago @
sacbee.com
The go-to source for news on California policy and politics

Race Takes Center Stage As Heated L.A. County Congressional Campaign Approaches Finish Line
latimes.com
Essential Politics

Poll: Democrats And The Elderly Loom Large In Early Voting - Politico
politico.com
An elderly American casts a ballot on Nov.1, 2016, in Eau Claire, Wisconsin as a caregiver sits nearby during an early voting period one week before the presidential election. | Getty

This Is How You'll Know California Republicans Had A Good Election Night
latimes.com
These are the races to watch in California if Republicans stave off a Democratic wave

These Ladies Were Born Before Women Had Right To Vote - The Orange County Register
GRACE WYLER @
ocregister.com
Census data show about 400,000 living American women were born in or before 1920, the year women won the right to vote.

Thousands Of Early Voters Hit The Polls In L.A. County. 'i Have Never Seen Such Long Lines'
latimes.com
Thousands of people stood in long lines at six locations throughout the county.

Bay Area to see sunny skies, warm temperatures on Election Day
sfgate.com
Bay Area to see sunny skies, warm temperatures on Election Day Bad weather won’t be an excuse for any Bay Area voters thinking of not heading to the polls Election Day. San Franciscans lining up to cast their ballots are expected to see mostly sunny skies and balmy temperatures on Tuesday, forecasters said. While there might be some patches of fog along the coast, Benjamin said voters can expect to see sunny skies for the most part, especially in downtown San Francisco where temperatures are expected to reach 70 degrees.

Our Final Map Has Clinton Winning With 352 Electoral Votes. Compare Your Picks With Ours.
latimes.com
Update on 'Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push'

Lady Gaga: Melania Trump Anti-bullying Pledge Is 'hypocrisy' - Politico
politico.com
After telling fellow lawmakers he wouldn't campaign with the GOP nominee, the speaker is emphatically urging voters to elect him.

Debate Over Risk of E-Cigarettes Plays Out on California Ballot
nytimes.com
Proposition 56 would tax e-cigarettes in the state for the first time, despite evidence suggesting e-cigarettes are less harmful and may help people quit smoking.