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THE Nooner for November 6, 2016

 

 

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ELECTION COVERAGE: I'll be providing updates on Twitter @scottlay hashtag #thenooner, and perhaps an email or two--depending on how late the evening goes. For paid subscribers, I will host a webinar on Wednesday, November 9 at 1:30pm. Access information to follow.

E-2

CA25 (Simi Valley-Antelope Valley): Could Democrats win an Antelope Valley congressional seat they haven't held since 1964? - "Republicans have had a tight grip on the area ever since, as cities such as Palmdale and Lancaster blossomed with the region’s aerospace boom. But now, thanks to the rise of Democrats and Latino voters in the high desert district, there is a chance that Republican winning streak could come to an end on Tuesday."

BLURRED LINES: California's election maps, drawn without party favoritism, hit the halfway mark [John Myers @ LAT] - "This year marks the third of five elections under those districts. Since then, Republicans have lost five of their congressional seats and experienced a shifting but net loss of seats in the Legislature. The party, struggling with a political brand that’s unpopular even among its own ranks, faces tough races in several parts of California this week. But unlike other states, it’s not political gerrymandering that’s being blamed for election results."

MOTIVATION: California voters may be too scared to stay home [Matthew Artz @ MercNews] - "When it comes to turning out California voters, hate might actually trump love this year — and disdain for Donald Trump among young voters and Latinos could sink Republicans in corners of the state they don’t usually lose."

POT PROP: Who is funding the effort to legalize marijuana in California? [Jim Miller @ SacBee]

Eight campaign committees and roughly 800 itemized contributions later, one thing is clear about the effort to pass Proposition 64, the measure on Tuesday’s ballot that would legalize recreational marijuana: Its flow of money has been really complicated.

Money has gone to, and through, eight different accounts. The most generous donor is billionaire businessman Sean Parker, who has given about $6 million directly to the main Yes on 64 campaign, $1.5 million more through other committees, and another $1.5 million to different accounts."

DOING THE LAUNDRY: California Legislature’s ‘reform’ of campaign spending was phony [Dan Walters @ SacBee] - "While it ostensibly limits direct contributions to legislative candidates, it exempts spending by parties and outside interests – gigantic loopholes that have made direct spending by candidates almost inconsequential and outside spending on their behalf dominant. The net result is immense spending on about a dozen key legislative contests this year, particularly Democrat vs. Democrat duels that affect the Capitol’s ideological tone, with only tiny fractions coming from donors inside the districts."

PROP 54: Good government or gumming up the works? With Prop. 54, California voters will decide [Jim Miller @ SacBee] - "Proposition 54 on next week’s ballot would require legislation to be in print for 72 hours before final votes in both houses, as well as mandate videos of all legislative hearings to be posted on the Internet within 24 hours."

AG: If Kamala Harris wins the U.S. Senate race, the governor has a rare chance to pick a new attorney general [Liam Dillon @ LAT] - "For Californians who have had enough political intrigue this year, there might not be much of a respite even after Nov. 8 if Kamala Harris wins the race for the U.S. Senate, as most polling suggests. Harris’ current post as California attorney general would become vacant, leaving open one of the state’s most powerful and influential positions for Gov. Jerry Brown to fill through the end of her term in 2018."

Could One, Or Both Of California’s U.S. Senators Be Tapped For Clinton Administration? [Dave Jacobson and Maclan Zilmer @ HuffPo] - "Atop the list of blue-chip California candidates for possible cabinet posts could be one or both of our state’s distinguished Senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. Both are longtime Clinton allies, and both have a pragmatic, get-things-done approach that is very similar to Secretary Clinton’s."

VOTE-BY-MAIL REPORT (through 11/4/2016) from Political Data Inc.

  • Total VBMs: 11,721,880
  • Total VBMs returned: 4,579,453
  • Percent returned: 40.6%
  • Dems share of VR/VBM share of requested/VBM share of returned: 45%/45%/46%
  • Reps: 26%/27%/32%
  • Other: 29%/28%/22%
  • Latino: 24%/22%/15%
  • Asian: 9%/10%/10%
  • 18-35: 28%/27%/13%
  • 35-54: 34%/31%/26%
  • 55+: 39%/42%/61%

THE AG LIST: Here's the current list based on conversations with many insiders:

  • Joe Cotchett, attorney
  • Rocky Delgadillo, former LA City Attorney
  • Katherine Feinstein, retired judge and daughter of Dianne Feinstein
  • Mike Feuer, LA City Attorney
  • Dario Frommer, former assemblymember and my fellow UCD law grad, who I later followed in his footsteps as president of the LSA
  • Leticia Perez, Kern County Supervisor and member, California Board of State and Community Corrections
  • Mike Gatto, Assemblymember (termed out)
  • Clark Kelso, professor of law at McGeorge and a Republican nominee appointed to insurance commish in 2000 when the vacancy arose after Chuck Quackenbush was compelled to resign and moved to serve as the state's chief information officer under both Davis and Schwarenegger. Easy confirmation. 
  • Nancy McFadden, executive secretary to Jerry Brown, and a key part of his inner circle
  • Nancy O'Malley, Alameda County DA
  • Ann Ravel, FEC commissioner 
  • Jeff Rosen, Santa Clara County DA
  • Phillip A. Talbert, US attorney for the Eastern District of California

 

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Woman In Energy

 

Here are the newspaper endorsements in competitive races:

  • CA07 (East Sacto County): Sacramento Bee: Ami Bera (incumbent D over R)
  • CA10 (Modesto): Modesto Bee: Michael Eggman (D over incumbent R)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Joss): East Bay Times: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Joss): San Francisco: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Jose): San Jose Mercury News: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): San Luis Obispo Tribune: Salud Carbajal (D over R)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): Santa Barbara News Press: Justin Fareed (R over D)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): Ventura County Star: Salud Carbajal (D over R)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): LA Daily News: Steve Knight  (R incumbent over D)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): San Bernardino Sun: Steve Knight (R incumbent over D)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): Santa Clarita Signal: Steve Knight (R incumbent over D)
  • CA31 (San Bernardino): LA Daily News: Pete Aguilar (D incumbent over R)
  • CA31 (San Bernardino): San Bernardino Sun: Pete Aguilar (D incumbent over R)
  • CA36 (Coachella): Desert Sun: Raul Ruiz (incumbent D over R)
  • CA36 (Coachella): Riverside Press-Enterprise: Raul Ruiz (incumbent D over R)
  • CA44 (Carson): Los Angeles Times: Nanette Barragan (D over D)
  • CA44 (Carson): Daily Breeze: Nanette Barragan (D over D)
  • CA46 (Santa Ana): Orange County Register: Lou Correa (D over D)
  • CA49 (Carlsbad): Orange County Register: Darrell Issa (R incumbent over D)
  • CA49 (Carlsbad): San Diego U-T: Darrel Issa (R incumbent over D)
  • CA52 (San Diego): San Diego U-T: Scott Peters (D incumbent over R)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Daily Democrat: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): East Bay Times: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Sacramento Bee: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Santa Rosa Press Democrat: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD09 (East Bay): East Bay Times: Nancy Skinner (D over D)
  • SD09 (East Bay): San Francisco Chronicle: Nancy Skinner (D) (pver D)
  • SD11 (San Francisco): San Francisco Chronicle: Scott Wiener (D over D)
  • SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Vly): Antelope Valley Press: Scott Wilk (R over D)
  • SD25 (Pasadena): LA Daily News: Michael Antonovich (R over D)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Malibu Times: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Santa Clarita Valley Signal: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Ventura County Star: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Ventura County Reporter: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): LA Daily News: Steve Fazio (R over D)
  • SD27 (Ventura): San Bernardino Sun: Steve Fazio (R over D)
  • SD29 (Fullerton-Diamond Bar): San Gabriel Valley Tribune: Ling Ling Chang (R over D)
  • SD35 (South Bay): Daily Breeze: Steven Bradford (D over D)
  • AD14 (Concord): East Bay Times: Mae Torlakson (D over (D)
  • AD14 (Concord): San Francisco Chronicle: Tim Grayson (D over D)
  • AD24 (Palo Alto/Mountain View): San Jose Mercury News: Marc Berman (D over D)
  • AD24 (Palo Alto/Mountain View): San Jose Mercury News: Marc Berman (D over D)
  • AD27 (San Jose): San Jose Mercury News: Madison Nguyen (D over D)
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): East Bay Times: Catharine Baker (R incumbent over D)
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): San Francisco Chronicle: Catharine Baker (R incumbent over D)
  • AD31 (Fresno): Fresno Bee: Joaquin Arambula (D over D)
  • AD39 (East San Fernando): San Bernardino Sun: Patty Lopez (incumbent D over D)
  • AD35 (San Luis Obispo): San Luis Obispo Tribune: Dawn Ortiz-Legg (D over R)
  • AD38 (Santa Clarita): Ventura County Star: Christy Smith (D over R)
  • AD40 (Redlands): Riverside Press-Enterprise: Marc Steinorth (incumbent R over D)
  • AD43 (Glendale): LA Daily News: Laura Friedman (D over D)
  • AD46 (Sherman Oaks): LA Daily News: Angela Rupert (D over incumbent D)
  • AD47 (Rialto): Riverside Press Enterprise: Cheryl Brown (incumbent D over D)
  • AD47 (Rialto): San Bernardino Sun: Cheryl Brown (incumbent D over D)
  • AD60 (Corona): Riverside Press Enterprise: Eric Linder (incumbent R over D)
  • AD65 (Fullerton): Orange County Register: Young Kim (incumbent R over D)
  • AD66 (Torrance): Daily Breeze: David Hadley (incumbent R over D)

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Noah Finneburgh and Jason Kinney!

 

CLASSIFIEDS 

  • On Saturday, November 12th, join the National Women's Political Caucus of California (NWPC CA) at our convention “Celebration + Conversation” at the Hyatt Place in downtown San Jose. Hosted by our Silicon Valley chapter, we modified the convention to a day long event which includes a luncheon keynote by U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer, conversations with former Superintendent of Public Instruction, Delaine Eastin and Emerge CA Executive Director, Kimberly Ellis, and a panel on appointments at the federal, state, and local boards. $100 for members/ $125 for nonmembers. Learn more: www.bit.ly/SanJoseConvention or contact convention chair Angelica Ramos at angelica@nwpcsiliconvalley.org
  • LOBBYING SUCCESS BEGINS HERE. Capitol veteran Ray LeBov's Lobbying 101 and 201 seminars give you a comprehensive, real-world picture of lobbying in California -- the people, processes and best practices critical to your success. December 8-9, $275 each / $500 for both. Lobbying 101 covers the Legislative process and Legislative advocacy. Lobbying 201 explores the equally critical areas of Budget Advocacy, Regulatory Agency Advocacy, Lobbying the Administration and Media Relations. Essential for lobbying firm principals / staff, organizations / agencies that employ lobbyists, newcomers to the profession. Information / registration:  www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.
  • Coming, November 10 in Sacramento: A Post-Mortem of the Election. Join former Governor Gray Davis, LAT columnist George Skelton, Asm. Matthew Harper and nearly two dozen other speakers for a day-long conference examining the results of the November 8 election. Hosted by Capitol Weekly, UC Center, Leadership California Institute and the McGeorge Capital Center for Law and Policy.  Click here, or call 916 444 7665 for details
  • Come join Sacramento's Finest Election Gurus/Nerds in dissecting the 2016 Election, hosted by the Harry S Truman Democratic Club of Greater Sacramento.  Join the Truman Club on November 17 for our final luncheon of the year where we break bread and break down the 2016 election.  Carol Dahmen-Eckery, Scott Lay, and Roger Salazar will help us understand just what the hell happened in the United States, California, and the Sacramento region this Election Cycle.  Hug therapist will be on call (we jest). No host bar (we don't jest). Thursday, November 17 at 11:30-1:00 p.m. at the Sterling Hotel.  For tickets, visit: trumanclub.com
  • Thinking about Graduate School?  Sacramento State’s Department of Public Policy and Administration is now accepting applications for graduate studies in Public Policy & Administration and Urban Land Development. Highly affordable, we offer a rigorous education in a political context with more than 400 alumni working in California State and local government as well as private and non-profit organizations. Priority deadline is December 1; final deadline is March 1 for Fall 2017 admissions. www.csus.edu/ppa     ppa-01@csus.edu
  • SACRAMENTO-BASED THRILLER wins national honors for Best First Novel, Best Political Thriller & Best Female PI/Sleuth. "Entertaining whodunnit told with humor and intellect" ONE MURDER MORE by Kris Calvin features a woman lobbyist as the amateur sleuth, while the cast of suspects includes two CA Governors (one past, one present) & a Senate Fellow! Order now from Amazon or your favorite bookstore at www.kriscalvin.com  $13.99 trade paper $1.99 ebook!
  • Oakland based public relations, public affairs and Democratic political consulting firm, with a portfolio of high-profile clients seeks an experienced and talented communicator to join our team. Should have at least two years of experience. This is not a campaign job but campaign experience is valued. Resumes, .pdf preferred, to oaklandprsearch@gmail.com

 

Independent Expenditure Reports<

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
California Future Fund Pac (state) Roman Reyna (Support) $17,500 11/04/2016 11/05/2016
California Future Fund Pac (state) Peter Kim (Support) $10,000 11/04/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Juan Villegas (Support) $8,990 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Don Wagner (Support) $2,443 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Lauren Brooks (Support) $489 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Anthony Kuo (Support) $2,443 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Paul Bokota (Support) $489 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Mary Ann Gaido (Oppose) $1,085 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Betty Carroll (Support) $489 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Mary Aileen Matheis (Support) $489 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Roman Reyna (Oppose) $2,997 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association Christina Shea (Support) $2,443 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
California Homeowners Association John Withers (Support) $489 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
Dart Container Corporation Raul Bocanegra (Support) $20,000 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
Dart Container Corporation Tim Grayson (Support) $4,137 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
Democratic Party Of Orange County Hillary Clinton (Support) $453 11/03/2016 11/05/2016
Equality California Political Action Committee Scott Wiener (Support) $10,000 11/04/2016 11/05/2016
Keep California Golden Raul Bocanegra (Support) $130,299 10/28/2016 11/05/2016
Keeping Californians Working, Dentists, Housing Providers, Energy, And Insurance Agents Cheryl Brown (Support) $3,500 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
Kim For Senate 2016, Sponsored By A Coalition Of Families, Nurses, Health Care, Service, Hotel And Electrical Workers; Working Families For Jane Jane Kim (Support) $60,000 11/02/2016 11/05/2016
Kim For Senate 2016, Sponsored By A Coalition Of Families, Nurses, Health Care, Service, Hotel And Electrical Workers; Working Families For Jane Jane Kim (Support) $5,512 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
Masiel For Assembly 2016; Friends Supporting Andrew Andrew Masiel (Support) $470 11/04/2016 11/05/2016
Morongo Band Of Mission Indians Native American Rights Fund Abigail Medina (Support) $13,418 11/04/2016 11/05/2016
Morongo Band Of Mission Indians Native American Rights Fund Marc Steinorth (Oppose) $13,418 11/04/2016 11/05/2016
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members, School Employees, And Public And Private Employee Associations Mae Torlakson (Support) $1,000 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
Robert F. Kennedy Democratic Club Scott Wiener (Support) $73,002 11/02/2016 11/05/2016
San Francisco Tenants And Families For Affordable Housing, Sponsored By Community And Labor Organizations Jane Kim (Support) $14,345 11/04/2016 11/05/2016
San Francisco Tenants And Families For Affordable Housing, Sponsored By Community And Labor Organizations Jane Kim (Support) $8,390 11/05/2016 11/05/2016
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
If Kamala Harris Wins The U.S. Senate Race, The Governor Has A Rare Chance To Pick A New Attorney General
latimes.com
Political intrigue in California could continue past Nov. 8 if Kamala Harris wins the U.S. Senate race, leaving her post as state attorney general vacant.

Politics Will Only Get Worse After Nasty Campaign Ends - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
American politics won’t get any sunnier after the polls close Tuesday, as the new president will face an even bigger challenge than getting elected — governing a polarized country and dealing with a gridlocked Congress.

Political Road Map: California's Election Maps, Drawn Without Party Favoritism, Hit The Halfway Mark
latimes.com
Few decisions made by California's citizens redistricting commission were as big as the one to swear off political party information. It changed the trajectory of California politics

Volunteers Hit Streets, Phones In Final Push To Get Out The Vote - The San Diego Union-tribune
sandiegouniontribune.com
The road to victory winds through blocks of single-family homes and apartments, where volunteers from each political divide fanned out Saturday knocking on door after door and ratcheting up support wherever it could be found.

State Pot Measure May Cost Millions Before It Raises Billions - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
The cannabis cognoscenti are giddy about an apparent legislative blunder that could give pot users an extended tax holiday — while extracting millions from government coffers — if California voters approve a ballot measure legalizing recreational use of the drug.

Fiorina Tops GOP List For Potential Virginia Senate Contest - Politico
politico.com
The 2016 presidential candidate and one-time Senate hopeful is considering a run, according to sources.

Burbank Airport Could Be Damaged In A Quake. Will Voters Approve A New Terminal?
latimes.com
A new airport terminal for Hollywood Burbank airport could be built in seven years if Burbank voters give their blessing.

Is Hillary Clinton The Ticket Out Of Town For Ed Lee? - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
The idea that San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee could find a home in a President Hillary Clinton Cabinet — a report floated last week by the Hill political website — is not far-fetched. Lee has been stumping hard for Clinton over the past several months, even serving as her surrogate in his home state of Washington.

Courage House, Shuttered Sacramento Home For Sex-trafficking Victims, Raised Millions While Pitching Expansion | The Sacramento Bee
Marjie Lundstrom and Sam Stanton @
sacbee.com
By Marjie Lundstrom and Sam Stanton

Final Flurry Of National And Battleground State Polls Offers Mostly Good News To Clinton
latimes.com
Update on 'Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push'

Fear Of Trump, Hatred Of Clinton Could Spur Healthy Turnout
mercurynews.com
Early returns of absentee ballots indicate that turnout will strong this year as negative feelings about both major party presidential candidates prevent voters from sitting out the election

Presidential Election: Clinton Tries to Run Up a Lead as Trump Seeks a Breakthrough
nytimes.com
Donald J. Trump heads to the blue state of Minnesota in hopes of assembling an Electoral College win. Hillary Clinton’s top surrogate, President Obama, heads to Florida in a final push for early votes.

La County Just Ran An Election Night Simulation. How'd It Go? | 89.3 Kpcc
Southern California Public Radio @
scpr.org
Voters cast their ballots in early voting at the Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters office on October 22, 2008 in Norwalk, California. David McNew/Getty Images

Grace Notes: How a Shop Owner in the Hamptons Knows Who Will Be President
nytimes.com
In every presidential race since 2004, Valerie Smith has tracked the number of candidate cups sold at her store, the Monogram Shop. So far, she has predicted every election.

Final poll: Clinton leads Trump by 3 as voters lock in
politico.com
The last POLITICO/Morning Consult horse-race poll before Election Day finds undecided voters making up their minds as Nov. 8 approaches.

Could Democrats Win An Antelope Valley Congressional Seat They Haven't Held Since 1964?
latimes.com
A Democrat hasn't represented the Antelope Valley since 1964. Could changing demographics and Donald Trump's candidacy change that in 2016? Political handicappers are calling the race a toss-up

2016 Election: 16 Statements That Would Have Destroyed Another Candidate - Politico
politico.com
America's allies have been rattled by Donald Trump's isolationism, especially on trade, and many felt compelled to break diplomatic custom and criticize...