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THE Nooner for November 6, 2016
If the subscription price is a bit steep for you and you don't need the election analysis, help support independent coverage of California politics and policy by chipping in whatever you can afford. Thank you to have contributed!
ELECTION COVERAGE: I'll be providing updates on Twitter @scottlay hashtag #thenooner, and perhaps an email or two--depending on how late the evening goes. For paid subscribers, I will host a webinar on Wednesday, November 9 at 1:30pm. Access information to follow.
CA25 (Simi Valley-Antelope Valley): Could Democrats win an Antelope Valley congressional seat they haven't held since 1964? - "Republicans have had a tight grip on the area ever since, as cities such as Palmdale and Lancaster blossomed with the region’s aerospace boom. But now, thanks to the rise of Democrats and Latino voters in the high desert district, there is a chance that Republican winning streak could come to an end on Tuesday."
BLURRED LINES: California's election maps, drawn without party favoritism, hit the halfway mark [John Myers @ LAT] - "This year marks the third of five elections under those districts. Since then, Republicans have lost five of their congressional seats and experienced a shifting but net loss of seats in the Legislature. The party, struggling with a political brand that’s unpopular even among its own ranks, faces tough races in several parts of California this week. But unlike other states, it’s not political gerrymandering that’s being blamed for election results."
MOTIVATION: California voters may be too scared to stay home [Matthew Artz @ MercNews] - "When it comes to turning out California voters, hate might actually trump love this year — and disdain for Donald Trump among young voters and Latinos could sink Republicans in corners of the state they don’t usually lose."
POT PROP: Who is funding the effort to legalize marijuana in California? [Jim Miller @ SacBee]
Eight campaign committees and roughly 800 itemized contributions later, one thing is clear about the effort to pass Proposition 64, the measure on Tuesday’s ballot that would legalize recreational marijuana: Its flow of money has been really complicated.
Money has gone to, and through, eight different accounts. The most generous donor is billionaire businessman Sean Parker, who has given about $6 million directly to the main Yes on 64 campaign, $1.5 million more through other committees, and another $1.5 million to different accounts."
DOING THE LAUNDRY: California Legislature’s ‘reform’ of campaign spending was phony [Dan Walters @ SacBee] - "While it ostensibly limits direct contributions to legislative candidates, it exempts spending by parties and outside interests – gigantic loopholes that have made direct spending by candidates almost inconsequential and outside spending on their behalf dominant. The net result is immense spending on about a dozen key legislative contests this year, particularly Democrat vs. Democrat duels that affect the Capitol’s ideological tone, with only tiny fractions coming from donors inside the districts."
PROP 54: Good government or gumming up the works? With Prop. 54, California voters will decide [Jim Miller @ SacBee] - "Proposition 54 on next week’s ballot would require legislation to be in print for 72 hours before final votes in both houses, as well as mandate videos of all legislative hearings to be posted on the Internet within 24 hours."
AG: If Kamala Harris wins the U.S. Senate race, the governor has a rare chance to pick a new attorney general [Liam Dillon @ LAT] - "For Californians who have had enough political intrigue this year, there might not be much of a respite even after Nov. 8 if Kamala Harris wins the race for the U.S. Senate, as most polling suggests. Harris’ current post as California attorney general would become vacant, leaving open one of the state’s most powerful and influential positions for Gov. Jerry Brown to fill through the end of her term in 2018."
Could One, Or Both Of California’s U.S. Senators Be Tapped For Clinton Administration? [Dave Jacobson and Maclan Zilmer @ HuffPo] - "Atop the list of blue-chip California candidates for possible cabinet posts could be one or both of our state’s distinguished Senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. Both are longtime Clinton allies, and both have a pragmatic, get-things-done approach that is very similar to Secretary Clinton’s."
THE AG LIST: Here's the current list based on conversations with many insiders:
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Noah Finneburgh and Jason Kinney!
If Kamala Harris Wins The U.S. Senate Race, The Governor Has A Rare Chance To Pick A New Attorney General
Political intrigue in California could continue past Nov. 8 if Kamala Harris wins the U.S. Senate race, leaving her post as state attorney general vacant.
Politics Will Only Get Worse After Nasty Campaign Ends - San Francisco Chronicle
American politics won’t get any sunnier after the polls close Tuesday, as the new president will face an even bigger challenge than getting elected — governing a polarized country and dealing with a gridlocked Congress.
Political Road Map: California's Election Maps, Drawn Without Party Favoritism, Hit The Halfway Mark
Few decisions made by California's citizens redistricting commission were as big as the one to swear off political party information. It changed the trajectory of California politics
Volunteers Hit Streets, Phones In Final Push To Get Out The Vote - The San Diego Union-tribune
The road to victory winds through blocks of single-family homes and apartments, where volunteers from each political divide fanned out Saturday knocking on door after door and ratcheting up support wherever it could be found.
State Pot Measure May Cost Millions Before It Raises Billions - San Francisco Chronicle
The cannabis cognoscenti are giddy about an apparent legislative blunder that could give pot users an extended tax holiday — while extracting millions from government coffers — if California voters approve a ballot measure legalizing recreational use of the drug.
Fiorina Tops GOP List For Potential Virginia Senate Contest - Politico
The 2016 presidential candidate and one-time Senate hopeful is considering a run, according to sources.
Burbank Airport Could Be Damaged In A Quake. Will Voters Approve A New Terminal?
A new airport terminal for Hollywood Burbank airport could be built in seven years if Burbank voters give their blessing.
Is Hillary Clinton The Ticket Out Of Town For Ed Lee? - San Francisco Chronicle
The idea that San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee could find a home in a President Hillary Clinton Cabinet — a report floated last week by the Hill political website — is not far-fetched. Lee has been stumping hard for Clinton over the past several months, even serving as her surrogate in his home state of Washington.
Courage House, Shuttered Sacramento Home For Sex-trafficking Victims, Raised Millions While Pitching Expansion | The Sacramento Bee
Marjie Lundstrom and Sam Stanton @ sacbee.com
By Marjie Lundstrom and Sam Stanton
Final Flurry Of National And Battleground State Polls Offers Mostly Good News To Clinton
Update on 'Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push'
Fear Of Trump, Hatred Of Clinton Could Spur Healthy Turnout
Early returns of absentee ballots indicate that turnout will strong this year as negative feelings about both major party presidential candidates prevent voters from sitting out the election
Presidential Election: Clinton Tries to Run Up a Lead as Trump Seeks a Breakthrough
Donald J. Trump heads to the blue state of Minnesota in hopes of assembling an Electoral College win. Hillary ClintonâÂÂs top surrogate, President Obama, heads to Florida in a final push for early votes.
La County Just Ran An Election Night Simulation. How'd It Go? | 89.3 Kpcc
Southern California Public Radio @ scpr.org
Voters cast their ballots in early voting at the Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters office on October 22, 2008 in Norwalk, California. David McNew/Getty Images
Grace Notes: How a Shop Owner in the Hamptons Knows Who Will Be President
In every presidential race since 2004, Valerie Smith has tracked the number of candidate cups sold at her store, the Monogram Shop. So far, she has predicted every election.
Final poll: Clinton leads Trump by 3 as voters lock in
The last POLITICO/Morning Consult horse-race poll before Election Day finds undecided voters making up their minds as Nov. 8 approaches.
Could Democrats Win An Antelope Valley Congressional Seat They Haven't Held Since 1964?
A Democrat hasn't represented the Antelope Valley since 1964. Could changing demographics and Donald Trump's candidacy change that in 2016? Political handicappers are calling the race a toss-up
2016 Election: 16 Statements That Would Have Destroyed Another Candidate - Politico
America's allies have been rattled by Donald Trump's isolationism, especially on trade, and many felt compelled to break diplomatic custom and criticize...