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THE Nooner for October 31, 2016

 

 

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E-8

VOTE-BY-MAIL REPORT (through 10/28/2016) from Political Data Inc.

  • Total VBMs: 11,039,088
  • Total VBMs returned: 2,510,472
  • Percent returned: 22.7%
  • Dems share of VR/VBM share of requested/VBM share of returned: 45%/45%/47%
  • Reps: 26%/28%/32%
  • Other: 29%/27%/21%
  • Latino: 24%/21%/14%
  • Asian: 9%/10%/10%
  • 18-35: 27%/26%/11%
  • 35-54: 34%/31%/24%
  • 55+: 39%/43%/64%

Boo! Happy Halloween. This nightmare of an election will be over in eight days. In SacTown, it's likely to be a wet evening of trick-or-treating. In LA-LA land, it should be dry.

The weekend was largely spent digesting the news of Comey reopening the FBI investigation of the Clinton-related emails, and any associated down-ballot impact. There doesn't appear to be and, if anything, it has gotten the Trump campaign off issues and into an email discussion. William Weld, the Libertarian vice-presidential candidate, largely came to Hillary Clinton's defense.

You may have been confused (as am I) as to why the electors for the write-in ticket submitted the name of Nathan Johnson as the running mate for conservative Evan McMullin, rather than Mindy Finn, who he has been campaigning with and is on the ballot with in several states. No clue.

The Asian Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus (an all Democratic voluntarycaucus) will likely increase with next Tuesday's election. While Carol Liu will be departing the remaining 8 members may increase. Seven Asian-Pacific Islander candidates are running on the Democratic side--Jane Kim (SD11), Ash Kalra and Madison Nguyen (AD27), Al Muratsuchi (AD66), and Mae Torlakson (AD14). Former Assemblywoman Mariko Yamada is in a tough race for SD03, as is former Assemblyman Warren Furutani in SD35.

On the Republican side, Vince Fong is expected to win AD34, as is Phillip Chen in AD55. Young Kim (AD65) and Ling Ling Chang (SD29) are both in competitive races. Alan Nakanishi is the underdog in SD05.

It's very likely that the Asian-Pacific Islander influence in the Legislature will increase on both sides in the next legislative session. To my knowledge, Ash Kalra would be the first Indo-American in the Legislature, while voters have elected Kamala Harris as attorney general and Ami Bera to Congress. The first Indo-American (and Asian-American) elected to Congress was Dalip Singh Saund in 1956. Madison Nguyen would be the third Vietnamese-American member of the Legislature, joining Senator Janet Nguyen if elected. The first was Republican Van Tran from Orange County, who served in the Assembly.

THE AG LIST: There are three major factors: 1) the governor wants to appoint someone who will run and win in 2018; 2) the governor likely won't appoint a sitting legislator, which would reduce the majorities (and possible Senate supermajority) and trigger a costly special election; and, 3) the fact that both he and his father moved from AG to governor and that an appointee, if elected twice, would line up perfectly for the 2026 gubernatorial election. Thus, he wants someone who would he likes personally, and would govern in a manner he would like. I receive a lot of inside information, some of which I don't feel broadcasting. 

I wish I could list my King Hall classmate and deputy AG Amy Alley, who you're seeing on the newstands gracing the cover of Sacramento Magazine as a "Powered Woman." Awesome sauce!

Here's the current list based on conversations with many insiders:

  • Rocky Delgadillo, former LA City Attorney
  • Katherine Feinstein, retired judge and daughter of Dianne Feinstein
  • Mike Feuer, LA City Attorney
  • Dario Frommer, former assemblymember and my fellow UCD law grad, who I later followed in his footsteps as president of the LSA
  • Leticia Perez, Kern County Supervisor and member, California Board of State and Community Corrections
  • Mike Gatto, Assemblymember (termed out)
  • Clark Kelso, professor of law at McGeorge and a Republican nominee appointed to insurance commish in 2000 when the vacancy arose after Chuck Quackenbush was compelled to resign and moved to serve as the state's chief information officer under both Davis and Schwarenegger. Easy confirmation. 
  • Nancy McFadden, executive secretary to Jerry Brown, and a key part of his inner circle
  • Nancy O'Malley, Alameda County DA
  • Jeff Rosen, Santa Clara County DA
  • Phillip A. Talbert, US attorney for the Eastern District of California

Some folks have been removed for various reasons. For example, Adam Schiff would be an ideal candidate, but he's a fixture on Sunday shows. Why would he give that up. More likely is a cabinet-level post...

 

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Woman In Energy

 

Here are the newspaper endorsements in competitive races:

  • CA07 (East Sacto County): Sacramento Bee: Ami Bera (incumbent D over R)
  • CA10 (Modesto): Modesto Bee: Michael Eggman (D over incumbent R)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Joss): East Bay Times: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Joss): San Francisco: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA17 (Milpitas-San Jose): San Jose Mercury News: Ro Khanna (D over incumbent D)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): San Luis Obispo Tribune: Salud Carbajal (D over R)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): Santa Barbara News Press: Justin Fareed (R over D)
  • CA24 (Santa Barbara): Ventura County Star: Salud Carbajal (D over R)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): LA Daily News: Steve Knight  (R incumbent over D)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): San Bernardino Sun: Steve Knight (R incumbent over D)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): Santa Clarita Signal: Steve Knight (R incumbent over D)
  • CA31 (San Bernardino): LA Daily News: Pete Aguilar (D incumbent over R)
  • CA31 (San Bernardino): San Bernardino Sun: Pete Aguilar (D incumbent over R)
  • CA36 (Coachella): Deserytt Sun: Raul Ruiz (incumbent D over R)
  • CA44 (Carson): Los Angeles Times: Nanette Barragan (D over D)
  • CA44 (Carson): Daily Breeze: Nanette Barragan (D over D)
  • CA46 (Santa Ana): Orange County Register: Lou Correa (D over D)
  • CA49 (Carlsbad): Orange County Register: Darrell Issa (R incumbent over D)
  • CA49 (Carlsbad): San Diego U-T: Darrel Issa (R incumbent over D)
  • CA52 (San Diego): San Diego U-T: Scott Peters (D incumbent over R)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Daily Democrat: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): East Bay Times: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Sacramento Bee: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD03 (Yolo-Solano-Napa): Santa Rosa Press Democrat: Bill Dodd (D over D)
  • SD09 (East Bay): East Bay Times: Nancy Skinner (D over D)
  • SD09 (East Bay): San Francisco Chronicle: Nancy Skinner (D) (pver D)
  • SD11 (San Francisco): San Francisco Chronicle: Scott Wiener (D over D)
  • SD21 (Santa Clarita-Antelope Vly): Antelope Valley Press: Scott Wilk (R over D)
  • SD25 (Pasadena): LA Daily News: Michael Antonovich (R over D)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Malibu Times: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Santa Clarita Valley Signal: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Ventura County Star: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Ventura County Reporter: Henry Stern (D over R)
  • SD27 (Ventura): LA Daily News: Steve Fazio (R over D)
  • SD27 (Ventura): San Bernardino Sun: Steve Fazio (R over D)
  • SD29 (Fullerton-Diamond Bar): San Gabriel Valley Tribune: Ling Ling Chang (R over D)
  • SD35 (South Bay): Daily Breeze: Steven Bradford (D over D)
  • AD14 (Concord): East Bay Times: Mae Torlakson (D over (D)
  • AD14 (Concord): San Francisco Chronicle: Tim Grayson (D over D)
  • AD24 (Palo Alto/Mountain View): San Jose Mercury News: Marc Berman (D over D)
  • AD24 (Palo Alto/Mountain View): San Jose Mercury News: Marc Berman (D over D)
  • AD27 (San Jose): San Jose Mercury News: Madison Nguyen (D over D)
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): East Bay Times: Catharine Baker (R incumbent over D)
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): San Francisco Chronicle: Catharine Baker (R incumbent over D)
  • AD31 (Fresno): Fresno Bee: Joaquin Arambula (D over D)
  • AD39 (East San Fernando): San Bernardino Sun: Patty Lopez (incumbent D over D)
  • AD35 (San Luis Obispo): San Luis Obispo Tribune: Dawn Ortiz-Legg (D over R)
  • AD38 (Santa Clarita): Ventura County Star: Christy Smith (D over R)
  • AD40 (Redlands): Riverside Press-Enterprise: Marc Steinorth (incumbent R over D)
  • AD43 (Glendale): LA Daily News: Laura Friedman (D over D)
  • AD46 (Sherman Oaks): LA Daily News: Angela Rupert (D over incumbent D)
  • AD47 (Rialto): Riverside Press Enterprise: Cheryl Brown (incumbent D over D)
  • AD47 (Rialto): San Bernardino Sun: Cheryl Brown (incumbent D over D)
  • AD60 (Corona): Riverside Press Enterprise: Eric Linder (incumbent R over D)
  • AD65 (Fullerton): Orange County Register: Young Kim (incumbent R over D)
  • AD66 (Torrance): Daily Breeze: David Hadley (incumbent R over D)

PROP 64: Curious about legal pot? Here’s how the industry is preparing for new users [Peter Hecht @ SacBee] - “As Nov. 8 approaches and California voters consider legalizing marijuana for recreational use, the scene at the BAS Research Center underscores another factor worth pondering: Pot has evolved well beyond the hand-rolled joints of the ’70 and ’80s.”

CA10 (Stanislaus): This California congressional race may turn out to be a prime example of the GOP's worst fears [Sarah D. Wire @ LAT] - “. . . [Jeff] Denham’s 10th Congressional District may end up being an example of what Republicans fear could happen across the country: Voters turned off by Trump’s rhetoric may not vote at all, and the party could lose seats it has usually held. Early voting is underway in California and 26 other states, and there is little time left for Republicans to change the momentum.”

THE HARRIS EFFECT: Riding high in the U.S. Senate race, Kamala Harris pushes to help down-ballot Democrats [Phil Willon @ LAT] - “For [Kamala] Harris, holding a rally so close the the election and so far away from California’s voter power centers in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area could indicate that she has enough confidence going into the November election against her rival, Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange), that she can spend the final days of the race helping down-ballot Democrats increase their numbers in the House of Representatives.”

THE TRUMP EFFECT: Clinton expected to cruise in California, so who will vote? [Michael R. Blood @ AP] - “Donald Trump was a longshot from the start in the strongly Democratic state, which hasn’t backed a GOP candidate for the White House since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Despite boasting he could win California, nonpartisan polling suggests Trump could be headed for a historically poor showing that could drag down other endangered Republicans.”

The California Republican brand has become radioactive [John Myers @ LAT] - “What a difference two years can make in the life of a political party. And for California Republicans, not for the better.”

California Republicans in trouble, but it's not all Trump's fault [David Siders @ Politico] - “If [the current vote-by-mail] trend carries through the election, according to a district-by-district analysis compiled exclusively for POLITICO California by PDI on Sunday, Democrats will over-perform projections in every congressional and legislative district in the state.”

THE SHIFT: As California turns left, conservatives’ culture war victories are being erased [Dan Walters @ SacBee] - “Culture wars dominated California politics during the 1980s and 1990s, and for the most part those on the conservative side of the ideological scale prevailed. But then is then and now is now, and the tide appears to have turned.”

THE 909: Ontario airport finally under local control in November [Neil Nisperos @ IVDB] - “The city of Los Angeles is set to hand over the reins of power at L.A./Ontario International Airport to its home city at 7 a.m. Tuesday, a year after the transfer was agreed upon by both cities.”

OBAMACARE, CALI STYLE: Key moves by Covered California helped keep premiums down [Tracy Seipel @ MercNews] - “The nation’s ever-controversial health care law suffered a black eye last week after the federal government announced that next year’s premiums for those who depend on the Affordable Care Act would increase by an average of 22 percent. But the blow won’t be as painful for most of the 1.4 million Californians who get their health coverage through Covered California, the state’s health insurance exchange: The average 2017 premium increase will be 13.2 percent after two years of modest increases.”

CHINATOWN: A $72-million apartment project. Top politicians. Unlikely donors. [David Zahniser and Emily Alpert Reyes @ LAT] - “o one is registered to vote at the run-down house on 223rd Street. The living room window has been broken for months. A grit-covered pickup sits in the dirt front yard with a flat tire. Yet dozens of donations to local politicians — totaling more than $40,000 — have come from four of the people who have lived there over the last eight years.”

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Mufaddal Ezzy and Gabriel Sanchez!

 

CLASSIFIEDS 

  • Come join Sacramento's Finest Election Gurus/Nerds in dissecting the 2016 Election, hosted by the Harry S Truman Democratic Club of Greater Sacramento.  Join the Truman Club on November 17 for our final luncheon of the year where we break bread and break down the 2016 election.  Carol Dahmen-Eckery, Scott Lay, and Roger Salazar will help us understand just what the hell happened in the United States, California, and the Sacramento region this Election Cycle.  Hug therapist will be on call (we jest). No host bar (we don't jest). Thursday, November 17 at 11:30-1:00 p.m. at the Sterling Hotel.  For tickets, visit: trumanclub.com
  • Thinking about Graduate School?  Sacramento State’s Department of Public Policy and Administration is now accepting applications for graduate studies in Public Policy & Administration and Urban Land Development. Highly affordable, we offer a rigorous education in a political context with more than 400 alumni working in California State and local government as well as private and non-profit organizations. Priority deadline is December 1; final deadline is March 1 for Fall 2017 admissions. www.csus.edu/ppa     ppa-01@csus.edu
  • SACRAMENTO-BASED THRILLER wins national honors for Best First Novel, Best Political Thriller & Best Female PI/Sleuth. "Entertaining whodunnit told with humor and intellect" ONE MURDER MORE by Kris Calvin features a woman lobbyist as the amateur sleuth, while the cast of suspects includes two CA Governors (one past, one present) & a Senate Fellow! Order now from Amazon or your favorite bookstore at www.kriscalvin.com  $13.99 trade paper $1.99 ebook!
  • Oakland based public relations, public affairs and Democratic political consulting firm, with a portfolio of high-profile clients seeks an experienced and talented communicator to join our team. Should have at least two years of experience. This is not a campaign job but campaign experience is valued. Resumes, .pdf preferred, to oaklandprsearch@gmail.com
  • Oakland based public relations, public affairs and Democratic political consulting firm, with a portfolio of high-profile clients seeks an experienced and talented communicator to join our team. Should have at least two years of experience. This is not a campaign job but campaign experience is valued. Resumes, .pdf preferred, to oaklandprsearch@gmail.com
  • Office Space for Rent: Quiet location two blocks away from Capitol.  Share space with a professional services firm.  Up to three offices in six-office suite (2,300 sqft).  Conference room, copy/printer room, reception, kitchenette, janitorial, parking.  Terms are negotiable. 1510 14th Street, Sacramento. (916) 444-7158.

 

Independent Expenditure Reports

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee - California Association Of Realtors Marc Berman (Support) $15,647 10/27/2016 10/30/2016
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members, School Employees, And Public And Private Employee Associations Ash Kalra (Support) $16,705 10/29/2016 10/30/2016
Parents And Teachers For Student Success Cheryl Cook-kallio (Oppose) $4,926 10/29/2016 10/30/2016
Parents And Teachers For Student Success Catharine Baker (Support) $14,777 10/29/2016 10/30/2016
Parents And Teachers For Student Success Christy Smith (Oppose) $7,398 10/29/2016 10/30/2016
Parents And Teachers For Student Success Dante Acosta (Support) $4,966 10/29/2016 10/30/2016
People For Better Government Committee Of The San Manuel Band Of Mission Indians Al Muratsuchi (Support) $24,600 10/29/2016 10/30/2016
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Napolitano, University Leaders To Visit High Schools Next Month To Increase UC Applicant Pool | The Daily Californian
dailycal.org
Achieve UC seeks to deconstruct myths that a UC education is unattainable and unaffordable for students from underprivileged backgrounds. While UCOP aims to inspire potential students when delivering its message, spokesperson Claire Doan said the events are also practical. The events address topics such as SAT test-taking, budgeting, applying for financial aid and attending college.

Slideshow: Anaheim, Other Oc Cities Could See Major Political Changes With District Elections | 89.3 Kpcc
Southern California Public Radio @
scpr.org
Several historically conservative Orange County cities could see significant political shifts this year as they move away from at-large voting to single-member district elections for city council races.

Motivating Bad Guys To Become Good Guys? That's Worth A 'yes' Vote
latimes.com
Gov. Jerry Brown is still haunted by one thing he did as a young governor 40 years ago. And he hopes to finally undo it on Election Day.

Silicon Valley Sidelined In This Presidential Campaign
mercurynews.com
Columnists, Donald Trump, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Meg Whitman, Technology

Housing Turmoil Reflected In Ballot Measures Around The Bay - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
SACRAMENTO — Voters in cities and counties outside San Francisco are facing 17 ballot measures dealing with affordable housing, homelessness, rent control and evictions — all issues prompted by the rising cost of housing in the Bay Area.

Phil Willon - La Times
latimes.com
Phil Willon covers California politics from the Los Angeles Times’ state capital bureau in Sacramento. Before heading north, Willon roamed Southern California’s mountains and deserts as the paper’s state correspondent in the Inland Empire. He previously covered Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

2016 November General Election Early Voting - United States Elections Project
electproject.org


California Carbon Reduction Goal Uncertain Without Cap-and-trade | The Sacramento Bee
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Observations on California and its politics

Politicians And Activists Demand Answers On Mystery Donations Tied To 'sea Breeze' Developer
latimes.com
Neighborhood activists and politicians call for investigations into a web of donations connected to a $72 million development.

Reid: FBI Director 'may Have Broken The Law' - Politico
politico.com
The Senate Democratic leader refers to the Hatch Act, which bars certain government officials from trying to influence elections.

San Francisco Supervisor Plans Support For George Lucas' Museum, Which Has A Competing Proposal In L.A.
latimes.com
San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim plans to introduce a resolution supporting George Lucas’ proposal for a museum on Treasure Island, a campaign consultant confirmed Sunday.

California State Considers New Rules For Waste Water Recycling - Capradio.org
Daniel Potter @
capradio.org
Capital Public Radio, Inc.7055 Folsom BoulevardSacramento, CA 95826

New York Senate Debate Becomes Proxy War for Presidential Hopefuls
nytimes.com
Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, and Wendy E. Long, his Republican challenger, often appeared to be fighting for the candidates at the top of the ticket as often as discussing their own differences.

After $38-million Deal Collapsed, L.A. County Secretly Launched Public Corruption Probe Of Retired Ceo
latimes.com
The L.A. County Board of Supervisors secretly launched an investigation of its former CEO William T Fujioka after his retirement two years ago, a document obtained by The Times and sources show.

Luck Running Out On San Diego's Once-thriving Card Room Industry - The San Diego Union-tribune
sandiegouniontribune.com
The front door of the Palomar Casino on El Cajon Boulevard in eastern San Diego is milky with dust and grime from the busy street it fronts. Fliers are taped to the windows, one of them instructing former patrons how to cash in gambling chips they still may have.

Former Bush Attorney General: Comey Made 'error In Judgment' - Politico
politico.com
Bayh and Young each had 45 percent of the vote in the new poll.

The Drought Eased Up, And These Californians Turned On The Spigot
latimes.com
A Times analysis of California water conservation data identifies the state's biggest backsliders — water districts regulators say they may soon reprimand.

Mycapture | The Union Democrat
customwire.ap.org


Ap News: The Orange County Register
MICHAEL R. BLOOD @
hosted2.ap.org
      Google

LAPD Chief Charlie Beck Fractures Pelvis Falling Off Motorcycle On Mountain Trail
latimes.com
Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck fractured his pelvis Saturday after he fell off his motorcycle on a rocky trail in the Techachapi Mountains north of Los