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THE Nooner for June 10, 2016

Subscribe to The Nooner to access exclusive election analysis | Follow @scottlay

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Grow what you know about almonds.

 

Happy Friday! You made it! Game 4 of the NBA Finals is tonight at 6pm PDT on ABC, and the Sharks won last night in Game 5 and now trailing the Penguins 3-2 in the Best of 7 series. Game 6 is Sunday at 5pm on NBC. The Giants and Dodgers face off in SF tonight, with opening pitch at 7:15pm. There will be lots of split screens in Northern California.

Well, we now know magnitude of yet-to-be counted ballots--2,586,331 (Amador and Kern have yet to report). The breakdown is:

  • Vote by mail ballots: 1,801,816
  • Provisional ballots: 705,489
  • Other: 79,026 (includes damaged ballots)

Only a few counties have updated their election night vote counts. Many will likely do the first update today and it's going to take some time. Unlike the ballots already tabulated, these ballots require manual interaction, validating signatures and confirming registration and non-dupes on provisionals. 

The late ballots are likely to skew younger and more Democratic. It's likely that Bernie will climb to the high 40% range (currently at 43.2%), and the second place in Top Two may change in a few races. For example, I would expect Assemblymember Roger Hernández will move into second place. He's currently third, triaiing Republican Gordon Fisher. We don't know how Los Angeles County's 616,056 unprocessed ballots are allocated among districts until they are counted.

The 616,056 unprocessed ballots adds 42.8% to the overall ballots cast in LA County. If we assume a 75% validity rate, that's 462,042 ballots.

It'll be a wait before The Nooner Primary Election Contest will be available . . .  

HOLY COW: "We will respect and defend American Christians." -- Donald Trump and the Faith and Freedom conference today. 

As those who follow me, you know I am spiritually Buddhist. Millions of Americans are of faiths that are not Christian, and if you're an American, You let them be. My paternal ancestors arrived around 1650. They fled the Episcopal church and economic disempowerment. Ironically, today was the funeral for Cassius Clay, Muhammed Ali. A peaceful activist whose religion has become a theme for the presidential campaign.

As David Bowie would say, "This is not America." 

I met a great Uber driver the other day who is Muslim and a devout Republican. 

More Accessible Voting Leads To Longer Counting Times In California [Katie Orr @ KQED] - "It’s getting easier to cast a ballot in California. You can mail your ballot in, drop it off at a polling location or visit a voting booth. But all that flexibility comes with a price — it takes longer to get final voting results."

GOP STRUGGLES: What you need to know about California's legislative races after the primary [Christine Mai-Duc @ LAT] - "Overall, one thing became strikingly clear: Early indications of depressed GOP votes in the presidential primary did not bode well for the fortunes of some Republicans in these races."

Scoring the Primary Results [Darry Sragow @ Fox and Hounds] - "Whether turnout did or did not surge depends on your definition of “surge.” When all is said and done, the total number of votes cast Tuesday may reach or approach about 8 million, short of about 9 million in the 2008 primary but substantially exceeding roughly 5.3 million in the 2012 primary. That will not break new ground."

BUDGET: Gov. Jerry Brown and lawmakers strike California budget deal that adds money for housing and child care [Liam Dillon, Chris Megerian and John Myers
@ LAT] - The agreement comes almost one week before the constitutional deadline for a new budget, an early compromise that’s likely a sign of just how few contentious issues there were between Brown and his fellow Democrats."

The budget process has changed so much from my days as a budget lobbyist. Democrats and Republicans 

THE DOWNSIDE: Donald Trump's threatened trade war would hurt California, report says [Natalie Kitroeff @ LAT] - "Instigating a trade war with China – something Trump has said he would “love” to do – would cripple the surge in jobs in the state, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a study released Wednesday." 

THE 916: Ex-Senate leader Steinberg shifts to new role as Sacramento mayor [Dan Walters @ SacBee] - Outgoing Mayor "Kevin Johnson failed to persuade voters to give the office true managerial authority, which remains vested in a city manager."

GO AGS! Dispute Between Chancellor and System President Clouds UC-Davis in Controversy [Fernanda Zamudio-Suaréz @ Chron. of Higher Ed.] - "When Linda P.B. Katehi, chancellor of the University of California at Davis, was placed on administrative leave six weeks ago, many officials hoped her departure would lift a cloud of scandal from the campus and the UC system. Instead, that cloud has only grown darker."

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Tim Wendler!

 

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CLASSIFIEDS

  • California Housing Consortium is hiring a Communications & Policy Associate. Duties include external communications, social media, event-planning and policy work. Communications background needed, affordable housing knowledge a plus. Full time, salary around 50k DOE, generous benefits. More info here.

  • University of California, Riverside Assistant Vice Chancellor for Governmental & Community Relations - The Assistant Vice Chancellor for Governmental and Community Relations serves as the chief government and community relations officer as well as the lead campus advocate for the University of California, Riverside, its mission and purpose. Primary emphasis is placed on building and maintaining strong support for the campus at all levels of the federal, state and local government and community through relationships with the supporters and public stakeholders of the University of California, Riverside. While it is expected that the incumbent will keep strong and open communication with other members of the campus' senior leadership team, this position reports directly to the Chancellor. To apply for this position please go to the following: Assistant Vice Chancellor for Governmental and Community Relations or www.jobs.ucr.edu

  • California Partnership to End Domestic Vioelence: Full-time Policy Coordinator on Public Policy Team: This Sacramento-based position coordinates public policy & systems change efforts with our statewide membership. Range: starting at $23/hour, DOE. Minimum qualifications: (A) Bachelor’s degree in Public Policy, Public Administration or related field (or equivalent experience); (B) Two years’ experience advocating for public policy and systems change; (C) Experience advancing policy with membership coalition or professional association desired. Click here for more information about the position and qualifications. Submit cover letter and resume to: jobs@cpedv.org. Position closes June 20, 2016.
  • Southern California Democratic Member of Congress seeking full-time finance director. Applicant should be self-starter, able to work independently as well as in consultation with senior staff. Responsibilities include planning fundraising events, organizing call time, pledge collection and compliance with campaign finance regulations. Must also be available to attend political events and assist local Party efforts. Finance director works out of Los Angeles-area political office. Candidate should have at least one year of campaign/government/fundraising experience. Salary commensurate with experience. Email resume to sapoliticsla@gmail.com
  • SEIU CA Job Announcement: Gov’t Relations Advocate (Lobbyist)
    The Gov’t Relations Advocate of SEIU CA is responsible for lobbying on legislative, budget and regulatory matters affecting SEIU Public Sector Locals and members. The position will work closely with the SEIU Local Union leaders and staff on legislative, budget and regulatory advocacy. BA and 2 years political or lobbying experience required.Competitive salary and excellent benefits are provided including comprehensive health insurance, defined benefit pension plan, and car allowance. How to Apply: Email a cover letter, resume and 3 references to Chris Hansen (chansen@seiucal.org) by Friday, May 27, 2016.
  • CA Charter Schools Association - Manager, Political Infrastructure Development (Los Angeles or Sacramento).Provides operational, management, and strategic support toward our effort to build out political infrastructure in communities throughout California. Works closely with charter leaders and directly manages local Political Action Committees (PACs) in regions all over the state. www.ccsa.org/about/careers/manager-political-infrastructure-development.html
  • NARAL is hiring in CA, NV and DC. The country's most innovative pro-choice advocacy organization is seeking creative, passionate, detail-oriented pro-choice folks to join our committed and talented team. Here are numerous opportunities to help bring true reproductive equality to America. Positions open until we find the right fit.  
  • Immediate Opening for Stellar Support Staff to act as "Assistant to CEO" & Leg Aide for small nonprofit. Reliable, smart, great communication/writing/computer & people skills! 35 hrs/week (Fridays off) $18/hr to start. Great benefits. Near the Capitol, parking paid. Send resume & letter of interest to office@aap-ca.org.

  • Finance Assistant for Frontline Congressional Democrat: The Finance Assistant will be responsible for managing low dollar events, staffing Sacramento call time and assisting with the implementation of the fundraising plan, both in district and nationwide, for a top-targeted Frontline Democrat. Send resume and cover letter to DemFrontlineJobs@gmail.com.
  • Consumer Watchdog is seeking an excellent writer and persuasive communicator to join our Santa Monica office as a Consumer Advocate. Comfort speaking to the public, opinion leaders, policymakers and the media required. Video and graphic skills a plus. Respond if you are passionate about working for justice. www.consumerwatchdog.org/job-opportunities.

  • Office Space for Rent
    Quiet location two blocks away from Capitol.  Share space with a professional services firm.  Up to three offices in six-office suite
    (2,300 sqft).  Conference room, copy/printer room, reception, kitchenette, janitorial, parking.  Terms are negotiable. 1510 14th Street, Sacramento. (916) 444-7158.

  • SEIU United Healthcare Workers-West Regional Political Organizers (Los Angeles and Bay Area). 85,000 member California healthcare union seeks strategic, progressive, motivated political organizers, 3-5 yrs political/union experience. Competitive salary and benefits package. Resume, letter, 3 references: recruiter@seiu-uhw.org

  • Resource Media is seeking a California Program Director*​ with background in communications plus political campaigns or grassroots organizing for our San Francisco office. Advance social justice and harness the power of communications to create change. Competitive salary/benefits. Get details and apply.
  • Subscribe to the Capitol Morning Report and closely follow who’s doing what each day in California government and politics. We list news conferences, legislative hearings, state board meetings and other events. Plus we add in community news and announcements from political campaigns. More info at www.capitolmr.com
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Ex-senate Leader Steinberg Shifts To New Role As Sacramento Mayor | The Sacramento Bee
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Former Senate leader elected mayor of Sacramento

BART to go to voters in November with $3.5 billion request
sfgate.com
With its middle-aged transit system in need of a major overhaul, the BART Board of Directors decided Tuesday to ask voters in Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties to approve a $3.5 billion bond measure. The measure, which would boost property tax bills an average of $35 to $55 a year for 30 years, will appear on the November general election ballot in only the three counties in the BART District, though all BART riders would benefit. Tracks and the system’s control system would be replaced, repairs would be made to the power supply infrastructure and various mechanical systems, stations would be modernized. The remaining10 percent of the bond money would be steered toward improving access to stations for riders who bike, drive, walk or take transit to and from BART, and to projects such as platform-edge doors, storage tracks and additional crossover tracks to increase capacity. A parade of political, business and community leaders urged BART directors to place the measure, which has been planned and studied for the past two years, up for a vote.

Gov. Jerry Brown And Lawmakers Strike California Budget Deal That Adds Money For Housing And Child Care
latimes.com
Gov. Jerry Brown and legislative leaders reached an agreement Thursday on a new budget to fund state government, a proposal highlighted by $400 million in low-income housing subsidies.

Donald Trump Leaves California GOP In A Mess
Dan Morain @
sacbee.com
Conservative radio talker Hugh Hewitt urged Republicans to dump Donald Trump as their nominee, and Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell took the honorable if undignified step of making good on a bet by running naked around the Capitol early Wednesday.

California Democrats Trying To Keep Senate Race From Becoming Awkward
latimes.com
California's House members on choosing among Senate candidates

Camera Turns Off On Porn Stars At California Capitol | The Sacramento Bee
Taryn Luna and Rachel Cohrs @
sacbee.com
The go-to source for news on California policy and politics

More Accessible Voting Leads To Longer Counting Times In California
Katie Orr @
ww2.kqed.org
It’s getting easier to cast a ballot in California. You can mail your ballot in, drop it off at a polling location or visit a voting booth. But all that flexibility comes with a price — it takes longer to get final voting results.

Opponents Sue To Overturn California's New Aid-in-Dying Law
Soumya Karlamanga @
latimes.com
The Life Legal Defense Foundation, American Academy of Medical Ethics and several physicians have filed a lawsuit in Riverside County Superior Court claiming that the state’s new aid-in-dying law is unconstitutional.

Bart To Go To Voters In November With $3.5 Billion Request - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
Click here to confirm your subscription & sign in information.

Will California Stop Police From Taking People's Property Without A Criminal Conviction?
Liam Dillan @
latimes.com
Last year, Sen. Holly Mitchell’s bill to rein in civil asset forfeiture in California fell a dozen votes short on the Assembly floor. Now, it may have a shot.

California Budget: Gov. Jerry Brown, Top Democrats Strike Deal On Spending Plan
mercurynews.com
Despite a Wall Street slowdown that led Brown last month to release a revised $122.2 billion general fund budget that had shrunk slightly compared to January, legislative leaders convinced him to increase spending not just for housing, but also for child care and welfare programs.

Senate Candidate Directs Voters To Porn Website With Same Name As Opponent - Politico
politico.com
David Letterman might be off the air, but the legendary late night host couldn't help himself from cracking a few jokes about the presumptive Republican...

California Continues To Count More Than 2.5 Million Unprocessed Ballots
Southern California Public Radio @
scpr.org
The 2.5 million California ballots still to be counted could increase turnout for both the state and counties to levels officials hoped to see. Scott Olson/Getty Images

California Prison Dog Finds 1,000th Cell Phone
Hamed Aleaziz @
blog.sfgate.com
A dog based in a Vacaville prison has proven to have a great nose for a common piece of contraband: the smuggled cell phone.

Brock Turner Case Fallout: Prospective Jurors Refuse To Serve Under Judge
mercurynews.com
"I can't be here, I'm so upset," one juror told the judge while the lawyers were picking the jury in the misdemeanor receiving stolen property case, according to multiple sources.

California Budget Deal Builds Reserve, Changes Welfare Rule | The Sacramento Bee
Jim Miller @
sacbee.com
The Legislature’s budget-writing committee expected to meet later today

No Constitutional Right To Carry Guns In Public, Court Rules - Sfgate
sfgate.com
A federal appeals court upheld California’s handgun permit law Thursday, requiring gun owners to seek approval from local law enforcement agencies to carry their weapons in public.

How California's Aid-in-dying Law Will Work
latimes.com
Starting June 9, terminally ill Californians can request prescriptions from physicians for medications that would end their lives. We tried to address some

Court: No Right To Carry Concealed Weapons In Public | The California Report | Kqed News
ww2.kqed.org
SAN FRANCISCO — Dealing a blow to gun supporters, a federal appeals court ruled Thursday that Americans do not have a constitutional right to carry concealed weapons in public.