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THE NOONER for January 9, 2016

Subscribe to The Nooner to access exclusive election analysis | Follow @scottlay

Happy Saturday! I hope you're having a great weekend, and the skiers in you are hitting the mountains. For the football fans, may all your dreams come true. I'm still on bedrest from the re-inflammation of by #PainInTheNeck. Too bad the Broncos are next weekend (although first round bye is nice), so I'll likely have to root for their arch-rival Kansas City Chiefs today.

DISTRICT UPDATES

 

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POLL POSITION: With the craziness of Thursday morning's budget release, I missed the Field Poll on the U.S. Senate race. Here are the results:

  • Kamala Harris (D): 27%
  • Loretta Sanchez (D): 15%
  • Rocky Chavez (R): 7%
  • Tom del Beccaro (R): 3%
  • Duf Sundheim (R): 3%
  • Other: 1%
  • Undecided: 44%

Both Harris and Sanchez have had modest drops from the last Field Poll in October 2015, which found Harris 3% lower and Sanchez 2% lower. Chavez is down 2% and Del Beccaro is down 3%. Undecideds are 10% higher, but I would suggest that it just signifies the polling period which was December 15, 2015-January 3, 2016 (n=730, +/-3.6%, English/Spanish), a time when fewer people are paying attention to politics.

There's plenty of time for numbers to shift, although a Harris/Sanchez general election is most likely.

DEAR PRUDENCE, WON'T YOU COME OUT AND PLAY? Brown's budget dominance starts with firm grip on revenue forecasts [John Myers @ LAT] — ". . . [Jerry] Brown deftly uses the single most powerful budget-writing tool at his disposal: the official forecast of tax revenues, the foundation on which all spending plans are built. Lower the forecasts, say budget watchers, and you neutralize most every request to expand government services. . . A review of the last five spending plans shows no year has seen more than a tiny two-tenths of a percent gap between Brown's revenue estimates and the numbers ultimately written into law. Last year, the gap was zero: legislators gave Brown a budget that completely abandoned their own revenue estimates."

The 2015-16 budget year is currently estimate ending the year $3.5 above those assumed in the 2015 Budget Act.

NOT SO FAST: Brown’s opinion looms over proposals for November ballot [David Siders and Jim Miller] - "Brown’s remarks, at a news conference at the Capitol, followed the release of his spending plan for the coming fiscal year. Besides criticizing the tax-extension proposals, Brown offered a dim assessment of a $9 billion school bond, calling it the handiwork of home developers that would preserve a flawed school construction program. And he warned of the potential cost to the state of a proposal that would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour."

GOING BACK TO POKEY, POKEY, POKEY: Raymond ‘Shrimp Boy’ Chow found guilty [Bob Egelko and Steve Rubinstein @ SFChron] - "On Friday, after 2½ days of deliberations, the federal court jury in San Francisco found [Raymond 'Shrimp Boy'] Chow guilty on all charges: conspiracy to operate a century-old community organization as a racketeering enterprise, murdering its previous leader, conspiring to try to murder another rival, five counts of dealing in stolen liquor and cigarettes, and 154 counts of money-laundering. . . It was vindication for a five-year undercover federal operation that had already netted another big fish, former state Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, one of 28 defendants indicted along with Chow in 2014."

Coincidentally, the verdict was handed down during Mayor Ed Lee's inauguration ceremony for his second term.

ONE-YEAR PASS IS HANDED OUT: Former Assemblyman Roger Dickinson registers as lobbyist [Alexei Kosoff] - "After terming out of the Assembly in 2014, [Roger] Dickinson joined Greenberg Traurig – which counts Disney, MillerCoors, the California Police Chiefs Association and the California Solar Energy Industries Association among its clients – as a partner in its government law and policy practice. Dickinson said he’s been advising clients who have issues with California regulatory or administrative agencies and he doesn’t expect that to change, but registering as a lobbyist will allow him to have more direct contact with former colleagues under the dome without crossing any legal boundaries."

HANGING IT UP: L.A. Councilman Felipe Fuentes says he won't run for reelection [David Zahniser @ LAT] - "Councilman Felipe Fuentes, 44, decided to walk away anyway, announcing Friday that he will not run for reelection next year — or any other office. That means he will conclude his career as a city elected official after a single four-year term, a move that’s astonishingly rare for City Hall."

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Future of Caifornia Elections


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In this picture,  look at the papers on which Governor Brown's notes are hand-written on. It's the lined paper we used as school kids.

Brown budget papers

The 34-2 Golden State Warriors face off at 7:00 p.m. against the 15-21 Kings at Arco Arena.

#CAKEDAY: Light those candles for IFPTE LOCAL 21's Rachel Richman! and Senate Republican Caucus consultant Doug Yoakam!

 


 

  • Subscribe to the Capitol Morning Report and closely follow who’s doing what each day in California government and politics. We list news conferences, legislative hearings, state board meetings and other events. Plus we add in community news and announcements from political campaigns. More info at www.capitolmr.com

  • Planned Parenthood Affiliates of CA seeks two experienced Senior Campaign Organizers to work with the seven California Planned Parenthood affiliates through November 2016. Salary (DOE) and reimbursement of healthcare up to a cap. Details here.
  • THERE'S MUCH MORE TO EFFECTIVE LOBBYING THAN LEGISLATIVE ADVOCACY. Get the total picture of lobbying in California with Capitol veteran Ray LeBov's introductory Lobbying 101 and advanced Lobbying 201 seminars January 28-29. $250 each. Lobbying 101 covers the Legislative process and Legislative advocacy; Lobbying 201 explores time-tested principles / best practices in the equally critical areas of Budget, Regulatory Agency and Executive Branch advocacy plus Media Relations. Essential for lobbying firm principals / staff, organizations / agencies that employ lobbyists, newcomers to the profession. Information / registration:  www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.
  • SEIU United Healthcare Workers-West Regional Political Organizers (Los Angeles and Bay Area). 85,000 member California healthcare union seeks strategic, progressive, motivated political organizers, 3-5 yrs political/union experience. Competitive salary and benefits package. Resume, letter, 3 references: recruiter@seiu-uhw.org

  • Planned Parenthood Affiliates of CA seeks two experienced Senior Campaign Organizers to work with the seven California Planned Parenthood affiliates  on campus  and electoral organizing through the November 2016. Three to five years and two election cycles experience as full time campaign staff required. Prior management experience preferred. Excellent salary (DOE) and cellphone/laptop stipend and reimbursement of healthcare up to a cap. Positions located in the south and north. Details here.


 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown Proposes Special Unit To Clean Up Cal Fire | The Sacramento Bee
Jon Ortiz @
sacbee.com
Special unit would have 14 employees

California Teacher’s Supreme Court Case Challenges Union Power | The California Report | Kqed News
ww2.kqed.org
The case could have far-reaching political implications because the CTA and other public sector unions are significant political players in Democratic politics in both California and nationally — and losing the case could hollow out their membership and financial standing.

Sacramento Sheriff, Feinstein Split Over Guns Sales To Those On Terror Watch List | The Sacramento Bee
Sean Cockerham @
sacbee.com
Sen. Dianne Feinstein wants to forbid people on watch list from buying firearms

Sacramento terror suspect held as attorney criticizes case
sfgate.com
SACRAMENTO — Shackled and silent, a Sacramento man and Iraqi refugee accused of terrorism charges after allegedly fighting alongside insurgents in Syria made his first appearance in federal court Friday, with his lawyer maintaining the case against him had been “grossly mischaracterized.” Aws Mohammed Younis Al-Jayab, 23, is charged with making false statements to immigration officials when he returned to the U.S. in 2014 after traveling to Syria. Prosecutors say he fought with militant groups including Ansar al-Islam, which the U.S. has designated a terrorist organization. The stolen property suspects all live in Milwaukee — where Aws Al-Jayab lived once — and the charges have nothing to do with terrorism, officials said. The federal complaint unsealed Thursday against Al-Jayab said he “traveled overseas to fight alongside terrorist organizations and lied to U.S. authorities about his activities.” Omar Faraj Saeed Al Hardan, 24, also an Iraqi-born refugee, made a brief appearance and did not enter a plea to a charge of attempting to support terrorism. The arrests of Al-Jayab and Al Hardan fueled a growing call by conservatives to block refugees from Syria — or to go even further, as in Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s proposal to block any Muslims from immigrating to America. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, another GOP presidential candidate, called for a new review of every refugee who has come to the U.S., to screen them for potential terrorist ties.

Historian Brown Presents A Budget :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
Brown offered a chart that showed the rollercoaster budgets over the last decade-and-a-half with big budget hits from the dot-com bust and the mortgage crisis. Brown said using the budget history as a template, his team predicted the effects of another budget shortfall, which could happen soon. The average economic recovery period is five years, the governor said, and California is well beyond that point now.

Public Service Unions Face Big Challenge At Supreme Court | The Sacramento Bee
Michael Doyle @
sacbee.com
Some educators oppose paying fees to California Teachers Association

L.A. Councilman Felipe Fuentes Says He Won't Run For Reelection
latimes.com
L.A. Councilman Felipe Fuentes said he won't run for reelection next year, ending his time as a city elected official after a single four-year term.

Obama Vetoes Bill to Repeal Health Law and End Planned Parenthood Funding
rss.nytimes.com
Mr. Obama said the legislation would “reverse the significant progress we have made in improving health care in America.”

Bill Would Ban Campus Smoking, Vaping In California | The Sacramento Bee
Jeremy B. White @
sacbee.com
Bill seeks to expand college tobacco ban

Obama Vetoes Obamacare Bill
blogs.rollcall.com
Mere minutes after the chamber approved the bill, Republican lawmakers began blasting out statements hailing the vote as a major victory.

Governor's Budget: Early Battle Lines on Taxes
Senator John Moorlach @
moorlach.cssrc.us
The fact that we have increased revenues to the state should be good news for California taxpayers, as the additional funds should take away any pressure to raise taxes.

Despite Fear Of Terrorism, Californians Wary Of Government Action - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
Click here to confirm your subscription & sign in information.

Brown's Budget Dominance Starts With Firm Grip On Revenue Forecasts
latimes.com
The governor deftly uses the most powerful budget-writing tool at his disposal: the official forecast of tax revenues.

2016 State Of The Union: White House To Annotate President Obama's Final Address With Context, Commentary - Politico
politico.com
The White House will also release annotated versions of past addresses.

Washington Raises Pressure On Silicon Valley In Fight Against Terrorism
latimes.com
The White House raised the pressure on the tech industry Friday to help rein in terrorism, dispatching top national security officials to Silicon Valley and announcing the creation of a task force to help prevent extremist groups from using social media to radicalize and mobilize recruits.

False Police Promise Overturns Murder Conviction - Crime Scene
blog.sfgate.com
When police promise a suspect that he won't be prosecuted if he tells them the truth, and he does, can he still be prosecuted? Yes, a state appeals court said Friday, as long as the promise didn't ...

S.F. Mayor Ed Lee Faces Loud Protests At His Inauguration - Sfgate
sfgate.com
It was supposed to be a celebration, the inauguration of Mayor

Obama to Leave Empty Seat for Gun Victims in State of the Union Audience
rss.nytimes.com
The president plans to leave an empty seat in the House gallery when he delivers his final State of the Union address to symbolize the victims of gun violence.

Afrezza Patients Worry They'll Lose Access To Their Insulin
latimes.com
Cynthia Goldstein of West Los Angeles says she likes using the inhaled insulin drug Afrezza because it acts more quickly than her insulin pump.

2016 State Of The Union Guests: Ted Cruz Slams White House's Plan To Leave Sotu Seat Empty For Gun Victims - Politico
politico.com
"If I'm elected POTUS, there'll be an empty seat for the over 50 million unborn children killed since Roe #Stand4Life," he tweets.