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THE NOONER for July 27, 2015

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DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CA31 (Redlands): updated analysis (subscribers only)
  • SD27 (Ventura): Changed from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic 

SCORE! I have updated the ATC Partisan Indices on the district pages. As with last cycle, there are two different district ratings I provide. One is the Partisan Index. This is the underlying partisanship of a district, which accounts for performance in previous statewide/presidential elections and changes in voter registration. This doesn't necessarily forecast a particular outcome. For example, Congressman David Valadao is in CD21, which has a Partisan Index of 55.0 D. It's a good indicator, however, and is accurate in 99% of races. 

The other rating is the District Projection, which generally includes Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic, Leans Democratic, Toss-Up, Leans Republican, Likely Republican, and Safe Republican. Unlike the Partisan Index, this is my subjective projection based on several factors:

  • Partisan index
  • National trends (including presidential nominees)
  • Candidates (including incumbency bonus)
  • Fundraising performance of candidates
  • Endorsements
  • On-the-ground observations

Obviously, these can and will change through the cycle. For example, if two members of the same party win a top-two primary, a district will move to "Safe" for that respective party.

The Partisan Indices should only change with the voter registration updates (December, April, May, September).

Anyway, you can view them all here.

FEDERAL FUN: ElectionTrack.com now includes contributions and summaries for federal candidates.

I'M ON A MEXICAN RADIO: Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de León and six other senators are heading to Mexico today.

...ah, fond memories growing up with The Mighty 690 broadcasting from Tijuana.

By the way, if you live in Sacramento and haven't had the street tacos on Sunday in front of the Catholic Church (T between 7th and 8th), tamales on the corner of T/8th, or a mangolada (fresh mango icee) on 7th/T, you are missing out. If you long to relive those teenage trips to Tijuana, there are also bacon-wrapped hot dogs. They vendors are there by 10am until 6pm or later. Cheap and delicious. Grab the grub and eat across the street in Southside Park.

CAFWD: From Revenue to Results: Considering Today's Tax Proposals [California Forward] - "The debate over taxes is one of the most pivotal political conversations California will have in this decade. With at least a dozen major proposals under consideration, it is clear that a longstanding desire to restructure the state’s volatile revenue system may soon be contending with an equally longstanding desire among some stakeholders to put more money into the system."

WAR OF THE ROSES: San Jose councilman faces ex in Assembly race - "San Jose Councilman Ash Kalra is competing with his ex-girlfriend, Darcie Green, in his quest for the District 27 State Assembly seat."

CAN BUY ME LOVE: Will money doom minor leagues of politics? [John Phillips @ OCR] - "There are reports that billionaire Tom Steyer and actor Rob Lowe have their eyes on Sacramento and Washington, D.C., respectively. I guess we will soon find out what background produces the winning hand."

IT CAN'T GET MUCH WORSE: Trump Impact—Overblown? [Sherry Bebitch Jeffe and Doug Jeffe @ Fox and Hounds] - "The bottom-line problem for the GOP, in their wobbly attempts to reach out to Latinos, is not Trump or any of their other presidential contenders; it is their party’s harsh rhetoric, their hardline approach to immigration reform and their opposition to social programs that benefit Latinos."

JUST DEAL WITH IT: In Alhambra, demographic shift reaches the grocery store [Frank Shyong @ LAT] - "But the change she couldn't accept came in June, when the Ralphs on Alhambra's Main Street closed and was replaced by 99 Ranch, an Asian supermarket. 'I know the city's changing," Myers said. "That's just inevitable. But does it have to change our supermarket?'"

As my property law professor was fond of saying, "land will rise to its highest and best use." If Ralphs closed, would you prefer an empty building? And, if you haven't actually spent time in a 99 Ranch (dim sum, duck, pork...yum), you are missing out. For the Sacratomatoens, check out the one on Florin.

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Long Beach councilmember Dee Andrews, Assemblymember Tom DalyJesse Petrilla, Jim Gallagher Fellow Mark Reed, and Garcetti Valley Rep Maximillian Reyes.

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: Janice Hahn is running to succeed Don Knabe on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors. Sheila Kuehl was elected in 2014 to fill the seat of Zev Yaroslavsky.

 


**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • Harbage Consulting, a health policy consulting firm with expertise in public programs and delivery system reform, is seeking a Communiations Coordinator for its Sacramento office. [more info]
  • Job Announcement: RALLY, an issue advocacy firm, is looking for Account Executives both in our Los Angeles and San Francisco offices. We are an issue advocacy firm that works at the intersection of strategic communications and public policy. We collaborate with inspiring partners to create powerful movements that galvanize the public and leave a positive legacy of change.

    Our Account Executives are responsible for client management. That means they are client-facing, are expected to show strong strategic thinking, and are tasked with the development of campaign plans, messaging frameworks, press plans, etc. Too see the full job description and qualifications, as well as to apply, visit linkd.in/1GmD5jH.
  • Job Announcement: Senior Progressive Member of Congress is seeking an experienced Congressional Aide responsible for proactive community outreach and engagement with key stakeholders and diverse constituencies in assigned policy and geographic areas within the East Bay. This position acts as a liaison to elected officials, various government agencies and performs constituent casework.  

    Outstanding organizational and communication skills required with knowledge of federal government and legislative processes, understanding of East Bay communities, and a proven track record of cultivating and maintaining relationships with key stakeholders is required.  Submit resume, cover letter, and one writing sample to  lee.resumes@mail.house.gov.  Minority candidates encouraged to apply. 

  • Planned Parenthood of Northern California (PPNorCal) is currently seeking a full-time Development/Grant Writer at the Concord Administrative Office.  Responsibilities include developing language for multiple fundraising purposes including grant proposals, stewardship reports, appeal letters, newsletter articles and sponsorship packages. Additional duties include managing proposal submissions and maintaining accurate institutional funder records in Raisers' Edge.   We are also seeking a full-time Development Coordinator who will contribute to the efficiency of the organization’s fundraising activities by providing high level administrative support with an emphasis on coordination of Special Events logistics. Visit us at www.ppnorcal.org for job details or submit resumes directly to careers@ppnorcal.org.

  • The California Craft Brewers Association is seeking candidates for the open position of Association Assistant. This positions is a great opportunity to engage with and support the craft beer community. If you’re interested, please contact Scott Marks at scott@californiacraftbeer.com.

  • Office Space for Rent
    Quiet location two blocks away from Capitol.  Share space with a professional services firm.  Up to three offices in six-office suite (2,300 sqft).  Conference room, copy/printer room, reception, kitchenette, janitorial, parking.  Terms are negotiable. 1510 14th Street, Sacramento. (916) 444-7158.

  • LEARN THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS and BEST PRACTICES FOR EFFECTIVE LOBBYING. Capitol veteran Ray LeBov's "Lobbying 101" / "Lobbying 201" seminars cover Legislative, Budget, Executive Branch and Regulatory Agency advocacy plus Media Relations. July 30-31, $250 each. Essential for lobbying firm principals / staff, organizations / agencies that employ lobbyists, newcomers to the profession. Information / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.
  • Energy Efficiency Program Manager (Electricity Markets and Policy Group)
    This position interacts with research scientists, project team members, and external customers to achieve program success. The position requires general knowledge of program management principles and skills, such as program planning, budgeting, and scheduling and computer-based spreadsheet and report generation tools to perform the work.

    To Apply: 50.73.55.13/counter.php?id=39689

    Equal Employment Opportunity: Berkeley Lab is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, disability, age, or protected veteran status. Click here to view the poster:Equal Employment Opportunity is the Law.

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
UCSF comes out in favor of Warriorsâ
sfgate.com
UCSF Monday officially threw its weight behind the Golden State Warriors plan to build an arena in Mission Bay, but that support is contingent on the abilty to reach a binding agreement with the city on how to handle traffic on days when there are major events at both nearby AT&T Park and the new basketball facility. UC San Francisco Chancellor Sam Hawgood said six months of talks with the Warriors and city officials have led to a workable plan to handle traffic and parking on most days. The hospital complex includes the only children’s hospital with emergency services in San Francisco, and has a rooftop helipad for the transport of critically ill children and at-risk mothers. With an added 18,000-seat arena intended to host basketball games, plus more than dozens of concerts and other events per year — many potentially occurring on the same day or night as Giants baseball games — the potential traffic and access impacts for the Mission Bay hospitals, and the ability of its patients and their families to access the hospitals, presents traffic concerns. UCSF does believe the city’s transportation planning has identified a way to allow access for ambulances and other emergency vehicles that need to access the hospitals. Large dual or overlapping events, even up to the average of nine such events analyzed in the draft SEIR, could hamper access to the Mission Bay hospitals for the 130,000 patients who visit each year and the 1,500 nurses and other health care workers who change shifts at 7 p.m. While the Giants and Warriors regular season overlap by about two weeks, this year the Warriors playoff run included 11 home games, six of which took place the same day that the Giants were at home. [...] oppponents of the proposed arena and entertainment complex Monday called the project “fatally flawed,” citing more than 50 violations of the California Environmental Quality Act, including “severe traffic congestion, blocked emergency access and seismic safety threats as part of the its filing today to the city of San Francisco’s Planning Department.” Lawyers for the Mission Bay Alliance, a coalition of UCSF board members and biotech eceutives who oppose the arena, said 1,000-plus page draft Environmental Impact Report fails in its attempt to accurately analyze the true environmental impacts of the arena and entertainment center. “Our engineers and experts have scrutinized the city’s draft EIR and determined with certainty that this is a fatally flawed project that will gridlock traffic, threaten patient access to lifesaving care and be a disaster for the Mission Bay neighborhood, the hospitals and city as a whole,” said Bruce Spaulding of the Mission Bay Alliance, a coalition of residents, UCSF employees, UCSF patients, and stakeholders who oppose the proposed Warriors’ arena. “Yet incredibly, (the draft EIR) concludes that the subject project would not result in inadequate emergency access when capacity events are taking place,” writes Dan Smith, of Smith Engineering & Management, who was hired by Mission Bay Alliance to analyze the traffic and access study of the City’s draft EIR.

Minimum Wage Waiver For Organized Workers A Point Of Debate Among Unions
latimes.com
One of the most divisive issues that Los Angeles City Council members expect to confront when they return this week from a summer recess will be a proposal by labor leaders to exempt unionized workers from the city's new minimum wage.

San Bernardino Struggles To Contract Fire Services | Calpensions
calpensions.com
U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Meredith Jury on July 15 rejected a firefighter union request to block contracting for services, ruling the city charter does not prohibit it. The union said it would appeal.

Daniel Borenstein: On Pensions, Labor Is Driven By Political Considerations Rather Than Actuarial Calculations
contracostatimes.com
If anything, many dismiss worries about pension fund shortfalls and advocate accounting practices that could make the problems worse. In other words, they seemingly act contrary to the long-term interests of their members.

Anti-carbon Crusade Clouded With Uncertainities | The Sacramento Bee
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown wants California to set decarbonization example

Mexico Is Cracking Down On U.S. Boaters Who Venture Into Its Waters
latimes.com
Without a fence to mark the international boundary, crossing by boat from San Diego into Mexico might seem deceptively easy. But San Diego sport fishermen and others drawn to the waters off Baja California should take heed: Mexico's federal government has been stepping up inspections, checking...

The State Of California Is Hiring, And It May Want People Like You | The Sacramento Bee
Andrew Holzman @
sacbee.com
The go-to source for news on California policy and politics

NFL In San Diego Tuesday For Stadium Meeting | Sandiegouniontribune.com
sandiegouniontribune.com
NFL Executive Vice President Eric Grubman spoke to the media in April following a meeting with the Citizen's Stadium Advisory Board in downtown San Diego. — David Brooks

Sacramento Doubles Penalty For Neglected Weeds In Fire Season | The Sacramento Bee
Jeanne Kuang @
sacbee.com
Property owner whose land caught fire had received prior notices

San Diego's Illegal Pot Shop Crackdown Accelerating | Sandiegouniontribune.com
sandiegouniontribune.com
Medical marijuana

Water, And Hope, Run Dry For East Porterville Woman Caught In Drought | Fresno Bee
Andrea Castillo @
fresnobee.com
Juana Garcia has a waterless home

First Draft: Today in Politics: Drowned Out by Donald Trump, Other Candidates Clamor for Space Onstage
rss.nytimes.com
Less than two weeks before the first Republican presidential debate, candidates are turning up the volume in hopes of getting onstage and keeping up with Donald J. Trump.

Obamacare repeal vote fails in Senate
JAMES KITFIELD @
politico.com
The party line vote played out predictably.

25 Years Later, There's Still Work To Be Done On Americans With Disabilities Act - The Orange County Register
COURTNEY PERKES @
ocregister.com
The Americans with Disabilities Act became law 25 years ago today, helping to move people with disabilities out of the confines of their homes and into everyday public life.

Obama: Huckabee's 'oven' Comment Shows Pattern Of Gop's 'outrageous Attacks'
latimes.com
President Obama inserted himself deeply into the election season from this remote locale on Monday, blasting the political rhetoric of Republican presidential candidates and what he called a culture of “outrageous attacks” tolerated by the GOP.

Navigating L.A. Proved Challenging Before Americans With Disabilities Act
latimes.com
As the nation marks the 25th anniversary of the Americans With Disabilities Act, it's hard to imagine the challenges of creating an independent life in a wheelchair before the government required accommodations.

Senate moves toward Monday Ex-Im vote
JAMES KITFIELD @
politico.com
There's 30 hours of post-cloture debate time before proceeding to a vote on the amendment.

Highway Funds In Jeopardy As House And Senate Differ On Way Forward
latimes.com
A congressional standoff over how to renew an expiring highway-funding bill pushed the Senate into a rare and heated Sunday session, but the legislative path forward remains unclear, leaving federal transportation projects hanging in the balance.

Gov. Brown Wants To Keep Oil In The Ground. But Whose Oil? - San Francisco Chronicle
sfchronicle.com
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Planned Parenthood Head Declares Undercover Videos A 'smear Campaign'
latimes.com
Planned Parenthood's leader vehemently denied any violation of laws involving fetal tissue, calling undercover videos recorded by a California-based group a "smear campaign" by "militant antiabortion activists."