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THE NOONER for June 8, 2015
We're now one year our from the 2016 primary, and one week out from the deadline for the Legislature to approve the state budget and keep getting paid.
I spent a good chunk of time this weekend on the AroundTheCapitol.com district pages. Take a look and let me know if you catch any errors or omissions.
For those that would like to buy the 728x90 banner ad on a specific district page, I'm now selling them for $250 for exclusive placement through the June 7, 2016 primary. The pages are regularly on the first page of Google results for candidate names. Email me if you're interested.
Here's the landscape in 2016:
I have made two changes to State Senate race outlooks:
In the Assembly, we have 15 open seats, with 9 Safe Democrat, 5 Safe Republican, and 1 Likely Republican (AD35): AD06 (B. Gaines), AD12 (Olsen), AD14 (Bonilla), AD24 (Gordon), AD27 (Campos), AD30 (Alejo), AD31 (Perea), AD34 (Grove), AD35 (Achadjian), AD37 (Williams), AD43 (Gatto), AD48 (Hernandez), AD55 (Chang), AD68 (Wagner), AD71 (Jones), and AD78 (Atkins).
In the Assembly, I have made the following change:
As of now, there are two spouses running to succeed there husbands--Watsonville councilmember--wife of Louis Alejo--Karina Cervantes Alejo in AD30 and Baldwin Park councilmember--wife of Roger Hernandez--Susan Rubio in AD48.
There are three rematches from 2012: AD36 (Assemblymember Tom Lackey-R v. Steve Fox-D), AD65 (Assemblymember Young Kim-R v. Sharon Quirk-Silva-D), and AD66 (Assemblymember David Hadley-R v. Al Muratsuchi-D). Of these, I have AD36 as Leans Republican and the other two as Toss-ups.
In the House of Representatives, we have two open seats, that is, if Loretta Sanchez stays in the U.S Senate race (I have my doubts)--CD44 (Janice Hahn-D) and CD46 (Loretta Sanchez-D). Both are safe Democratic seats. The odds-on favorite for CD44 is Isadore Hall III, and if CD46 is open, look for Lou Correa to make a bid. And of course we have the rematch of Congressman Mike Honda (D) and attorney Ro Khanna (D).
LESSONS LEARNED: Photo Oops: History's Worst Political Photo Ops [Elizabeth F. Ralph @ Politico]
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Jeff Durfee, CDE's LeAnn Fong-Batkin, and PPIC's Dave Lesher.
#GHOSTSOFCAKEDAYSPAST: Light those belated candles for CDP Region 2 Director Craig Cheslog (Sunday), Mimi Walters's former COS Garth Eisenbeis (Saturday), and Acumen's Taylor White!
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Marijuana fact-finding tour the new political field trip
Joe Garofoli @ sfgate.com
Standing next to Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom on a hill overlooking southern Humboldt County, a second-generation cannabis farmer pointed to the valley below. "Thereâs one," he said, gesturing at a clearing in the trees. "And there. And over there. They''re all over."
Initiative Alters CalPERS "Poison Pill" Big Exit Fees
Ed Mendel @ calpensions.com
A pension reform initiative filed last week requires voter approval of termination fees, the big upfront payment demanded by CalPERS when a plan is closed to new members.
Election Shocker Roils Turkey; Political Uncertainty Looms
Turkey’s ruling party, which lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday’s general elections, embarked Monday on a search for coalition partners to form a new government, but other political blocs shunned the idea of an alliance, appearing to usher in a period of political uncertainty in the wake of the dramatic outcome of the voting.
In Drought And Desperate Times, An Unlikely Water Source: The Desert?
AARON ORLOWSKI @ ocregister.com
As California's four-year drought drags on, government officials and enterprising citizens are looking for new water sources. Some plans are audacious and utterly unrealistic. Others might actually happen. Starting with the most outlandish:
Lawmakers Do Warm-Ups, But The Game Is Far Off
George Skelton @ latimes.com
Hundreds of bills flew from one legislative house to the other last week in an exercise much like batting practice.
Mexico Elects 1st Independent Governor; Pri And Allies Control Lower House
The ruling coalition of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto gained an absolute majority in the lower house of Congress, results from Sunday’s election show. However, the politics-as-usual was shattered by the apparent landslide victory of an independent candidate for governor of one of the country’s most important states.
Family To Accept Navy Cross After Fight For Medal Of Honor | The Sacramento Bee
JULIE WATSON @ sacbee.com
The family of Sgt. Rafael Peralta will accept the nation's second-highest award at a ceremony Monday at Camp Pendleton, north of San Diego.
Despite Pri Gains, Mexico Elects 1st Independent Governor
The ruling coalition of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto gained an absolute majority in the lower house of Congress , results from Sunday’s election show. However, the politics-as-usual was shattered by the apparent landslide victory of an independent candidate for governor of one of the country’s most important states.
California Water Losses 'Huge,' New Thinking Required On Drought, Panel Says
Ron-Gong Lin II @ latimes.com
A panel of water experts on Sunday mapped out the challenges California faces in meeting future demands for water at a time when water sources are under stress and future supplies appear uncertain.
BART to halt S.F.-East Bay service for 5 days of track upgrades
BART is preparing to halt all train service between San Francisco and the East Bay over the upcoming three-day Labor Day weekend âÂÂ and the first weekend of August as well âÂÂ for what is being billed as âÂÂcritical track maintenanceâÂÂ near the entrance to the systemâÂÂs Transbay Tube. âÂÂWe plan to have a substantial âÂÂbus bridgeâÂÂ available for BART passengers traveling between Oakland and San FranciscoâÂÂ during the anticipated five days of service disruptions, BART Assistant General Manager Kerry Hamill said in a memo sent to Bay Area transportation agencies. [...] BART spokeswoman Alicia Trost said the agency has no choice but to go ahead with the unprecedented scheduled Transbay shutdown, based on safety considerations and âÂÂthe amount of work that needs to take place and all the crews needed to do the work.âÂÂ Trost said that while the dates for the closure arenâÂÂt âÂÂset in stone,âÂÂ BART has begun notifying transit agencies throughout the Bay Area in an effort to avoid a repeat of last monthâÂÂs traffic gridlock when Highway 92 near the San Mateo Bridge was shut down while BART simultaneously halted service near the Oakland Coliseum for track work. The planned West Oakland BART closure is the latest in a string of planned shutdowns to repair and upgrade tracks and switches across the 108-mile BART system. The line between the Coliseum and Fruitvale stations is being closed for an unprecedented 11 weekends to replace 1,000 degraded wooden ties and 3,000 feet of worn rail. âÂÂWe were mystified to learn of her last-minute about-face, particularly given that she endorsed and voted for the project not long ago,âÂÂ said Jack Bair, the GiantsâÂÂ senior vice president. Affordable housing activists, who could help Kim run for state Senate down the line, want the Giants to pay into a fund so that the nonprofits could build the housing on their own sites. [...] Local 2 of the restaurant workers union, which could also be helpful in a Senate race, wants a guarantee from the Giants that the union contract for concessionaires at AT&T Park will be extended. In other words, Kim, who did not return requests for comment, may be playing a bit of a leverage game here âÂÂ one that mixes housing and hot dogs, with a dash of political relish.
Can Californians Create Enduring Drought Relief?
On the perennially vexing subjects of water and the drought , Gov. Jerry Brown has been on something of a roll.
Contesting A Traffic Ticket? California Poised To Ban Pay-first Policy | The Sacramento Bee
Christopher Cadelago @ sacbee.com
Court officials say planned change will improve access
Revamping California's tax code
The California tax code is like a handyman's rickety stepladder, as untrustworthy as it is essential. It's also proving to be hard to fix. Two blue-ribbon commissions have proposed sweeping reforms to shore up the tax code's weaknesses in recent years, only to get lost amid the Legislature's struggle...
Poll: Many Americans don't trust SCOTUS on Obamacare, same-sex marriage
MATT LATIMER @ politico.com
63 percent said they favor the constitutional right of gay and lesbian couples to marry.
Chargers Unhappy With Negative Campaign In San Diego
President Obama says FIFA must operate with 'integrity, transparency'
Austin Knoblach @ latimes.com
Add President Obama to the list of folks who are calling on FIFA to change its ways.
California Drought: No Rain, But 'the Sky Is Not Falling'
The Santa Ana River is a robust and beautiful sight these days. Five miles west of the Prado Dam in Yorba Linda, the water has cut a narrow channel in a sandy bed and courses briskly over submerged rocks and tree limbs.
Bay Area Hospitals Seeing Birthrates Inching Back Up After Recession
Joyce Tsai @ mercurynews.com
Drought Spurs Sports To Look At Water Use On Fairways And Fields
That spot down the fairway, just past the dogleg, might be perfect for a new bunker. Jack Nicklaus imagines a hazard that would force golfers to choose.
Drought, Heat Suggest West Nile Virus Danger In Sacramento Region | The Sacramento Bee
Edward Ortiz @ sacbee.com
Higher temperatures, drought are strong predictors for above-average virus years