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THE NOONER for June 8, 2015




We're now one year our from the 2016 primary, and one week out from the deadline for the Legislature to approve the state budget and keep getting paid.

I spent a good chunk of time this weekend on the district pages. Take a look and let me know if you catch any errors or omissions. 

For those that would like to buy the 728x90 banner ad on a specific district page, I'm now selling them for $250 for exclusive placement through the June 7, 2016 primary. The pages are regularly on the first page of Google results for candidate names. Email me if you're interested.

Here's the landscape in 2016:

Senate vacancies 6 Safe Democrat, 1 Likely Republican (SD29): SD03 (Wolk), SD09 (Hancock), SD11 (Leno), SD25 (Liu), SD27 (Pavley), SD29 (Huff), SD35 (Hall).

I have made two changes to State Senate race outlooks:

  • SD25 (Pasadena): Changed from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat with the likely entrance of longtime LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich (R).
  • SD29 (Diamond Bar): Changed from Safe Republican to Likely Republican with the Ling-Ling Chang (R) vs. Sukhee Kang (D) race.

In the Assembly, we have 15 open seats, with 9 Safe Democrat, 5 Safe Republican, and 1 Likely Republican (AD35): AD06 (B. Gaines), AD12 (Olsen), AD14 (Bonilla), AD24 (Gordon), AD27 (Campos), AD30 (Alejo), AD31 (Perea), AD34 (Grove), AD35 (Achadjian), AD37 (Williams), AD43 (Gatto), AD48 (Hernandez), AD55 (Chang), AD68 (Wagner), AD71 (Jones), and AD78 (Atkins).

One that I'm watching as a possible open seat is AD04, and whether first-term Assemblymember Bill Dodd decides to jump in the race for Wolk's SD03.

In the Assembly, I have made the following change:

  • AD36 (Palmdale): Changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.

As of now, there are two spouses running to succeed there husbands--Watsonville councilmember--wife of Louis Alejo--Karina Cervantes Alejo in AD30 and Baldwin Park councilmember--wife of Roger Hernandez--Susan Rubio in AD48.

There are three rematches from 2012: AD36 (Assemblymember Tom Lackey-R v. Steve Fox-D), AD65 (Assemblymember Young Kim-R v. Sharon Quirk-Silva-D), and AD66 (Assemblymember David Hadley-R v. Al Muratsuchi-D). Of these, I have AD36 as Leans Republican and the other two as Toss-ups.

In the House of Representatives, we have two open seats, that is, if Loretta Sanchez stays in the U.S Senate race (I have my doubts)--CD44 (Janice Hahn-D) and CD46 (Loretta Sanchez-D). Both are safe Democratic seats. The odds-on favorite for CD44 is Isadore Hall III, and if CD46 is open, look for Lou Correa to make a bid. And of course we have the rematch of Congressman Mike Honda (D) and attorney Ro Khanna (D). 

LESSONS LEARNED: Photo Oops: History's Worst Political Photo Ops [Elizabeth F. Ralph @ Politico]

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Jeff Durfee, CDE's LeAnn Fong-Batkin, and PPIC's Dave Lesher.

#GHOSTSOFCAKEDAYSPAST: Light those belated candles for CDP Region 2 Director Craig Cheslog (Sunday), Mimi Walters's former COS Garth Eisenbeis (Saturday), and Acumen's Taylor White!





  • NARAL Pro-Choice America is looking for a Special Events Lead Coordinator to work out of the San Francisco office.  This position is responsible for the logistics and fundraising support for a suite of high-profile special events in California and possibly in other states. Someone with an eye for details, highly organized and super fun would be a great match.Please click Special Events Coordinator for the full job description and applications can be sent to
  • LEARN THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS AND BEST PRACTICES FOR EFFECTIVE LOBBYING. Capitol veteran Ray LeBov's "Lobbying 101" / "Lobbying 201" seminars cover Legislative, Budget, Executive Branch and Regulatory Agency advocacy plus Media Relations. June 18-19, $250 each. Essential for lobbying firm principals / support staff, organizations / public agencies that employ lobbyists. Complete information / registration: or 916 442 5009.
  • Please join Capitol Network for our 2nd Annual Chiefs of Staff luncheon. June 26, from 11:30 AM - 1:00 PM at CalChamber, 1215 K Street, Suite 1400. This event is open only to Capitol Network members. Register here. Become a member here.
  • The Center for Responsible Lending has an opening for a Policy and Government Affairs Associate/Counsel in Oakland, CA.  The associate will work with stakeholders in California and other Western states to develop and advance strategies for legislative and regulatory reform at the state level to prevent predatory lending practices.   If you would like to know more about this opportunity, please visit  If you are interested in applying for this position, please submit your resume and cover letter describing why you are a fit for this position to

  • Place your classified here for $30/week for up to 100 words. Email



Marijuana fact-finding tour the new political field trip
Joe Garofoli @
Standing next to Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom on a hill overlooking southern Humboldt County, a second-generation cannabis farmer pointed to the valley below. "There’s one," he said, gesturing at a clearing in the trees. "And there. And over there. They''re all over."

Initiative Alters CalPERS "Poison Pill" Big Exit Fees
Ed Mendel @
A pension reform initiative filed last week requires voter approval of termination fees, the big upfront payment demanded by CalPERS when a plan is closed to new members.

Election Shocker Roils Turkey; Political Uncertainty Looms
Turkey’s ruling party, which lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday’s general elections, embarked Monday on a search for coalition partners to form a new government, but other political blocs shunned the idea of an alliance, appearing to usher in a period of political uncertainty in the wake of the dramatic outcome of the voting.

In Drought And Desperate Times, An Unlikely Water Source: The Desert?
As California's four-year drought drags on, government officials and enterprising citizens are looking for new water sources. Some plans are audacious and utterly unrealistic. Others might actually happen. Starting with the most outlandish:

Lawmakers Do Warm-Ups, But The Game Is Far Off
George Skelton @
Hundreds of bills flew from one legislative house to the other last week in an exercise much like batting practice.

Mexico Elects 1st Independent Governor; Pri And Allies Control Lower House
The ruling coalition of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto gained an absolute majority in the lower house of Congress, results from Sunday’s election show. However, the politics-as-usual was shattered by the apparent landslide victory of an independent candidate for governor of one of the country’s most important states.

Family To Accept Navy Cross After Fight For Medal Of Honor | The Sacramento Bee
The family of Sgt. Rafael Peralta will accept the nation's second-highest award at a ceremony Monday at Camp Pendleton, north of San Diego.

Despite Pri Gains, Mexico Elects 1st Independent Governor
The ruling coalition of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto gained an absolute majority in the lower house of Congress , results from Sunday’s election show. However, the politics-as-usual was shattered by the apparent landslide victory of an independent candidate for governor of one of the country’s most important states.

California Water Losses 'Huge,' New Thinking Required On Drought, Panel Says
Ron-Gong Lin II @
A panel of water experts on Sunday mapped out the challenges California faces in meeting future demands for water at a time when water sources are under stress and future supplies appear uncertain.

BART to halt S.F.-East Bay service for 5 days of track upgrades
BART is preparing to halt all train service between San Francisco and the East Bay over the upcoming three-day Labor Day weekend — and the first weekend of August as well — for what is being billed as “critical track maintenance” near the entrance to the system’s Transbay Tube. “We plan to have a substantial ‘bus bridge’ available for BART passengers traveling between Oakland and San Francisco” during the anticipated five days of service disruptions, BART Assistant General Manager Kerry Hamill said in a memo sent to Bay Area transportation agencies. [...] BART spokeswoman Alicia Trost said the agency has no choice but to go ahead with the unprecedented scheduled Transbay shutdown, based on safety considerations and “the amount of work that needs to take place and all the crews needed to do the work.” Trost said that while the dates for the closure aren’t “set in stone,” BART has begun notifying transit agencies throughout the Bay Area in an effort to avoid a repeat of last month’s traffic gridlock when Highway 92 near the San Mateo Bridge was shut down while BART simultaneously halted service near the Oakland Coliseum for track work. The planned West Oakland BART closure is the latest in a string of planned shutdowns to repair and upgrade tracks and switches across the 108-mile BART system. The line between the Coliseum and Fruitvale stations is being closed for an unprecedented 11 weekends to replace 1,000 degraded wooden ties and 3,000 feet of worn rail. “We were mystified to learn of her last-minute about-face, particularly given that she endorsed and voted for the project not long ago,” said Jack Bair, the Giants’ senior vice president. Affordable housing activists, who could help Kim run for state Senate down the line, want the Giants to pay into a fund so that the nonprofits could build the housing on their own sites. [...] Local 2 of the restaurant workers union, which could also be helpful in a Senate race, wants a guarantee from the Giants that the union contract for concessionaires at AT&T Park will be extended. In other words, Kim, who did not return requests for comment, may be playing a bit of a leverage game here — one that mixes housing and hot dogs, with a dash of political relish.

Can Californians Create Enduring Drought Relief?
On the perennially vexing subjects of water and the drought , Gov. Jerry Brown has been on something of a roll.

Contesting A Traffic Ticket? California Poised To Ban Pay-first Policy | The Sacramento Bee
Christopher Cadelago @
Court officials say planned change will improve access

Revamping California's tax code
The California tax code is like a handyman's rickety stepladder, as untrustworthy as it is essential. It's also proving to be hard to fix. Two blue-ribbon commissions have proposed sweeping reforms to shore up the tax code's weaknesses in recent years, only to get lost amid the Legislature's struggle...

Poll: Many Americans don't trust SCOTUS on Obamacare, same-sex marriage
63 percent said they favor the constitutional right of gay and lesbian couples to marry.

Chargers Unhappy With Negative Campaign In San Diego
Today's high

President Obama says FIFA must operate with 'integrity, transparency'
Austin Knoblach @
Add President Obama to the list of folks who are calling on FIFA to change its ways.

California Drought: No Rain, But 'the Sky Is Not Falling'
The Santa Ana River is a robust and beautiful sight these days. Five miles west of the Prado Dam in Yorba Linda, the water has cut a narrow channel in a sandy bed and courses briskly over submerged rocks and tree limbs.

Bay Area Hospitals Seeing Birthrates Inching Back Up After Recession
Joyce Tsai @

Drought Spurs Sports To Look At Water Use On Fairways And Fields
That spot down the fairway, just past the dogleg, might be perfect for a new bunker. Jack Nicklaus imagines a hazard that would force golfers to choose.

Drought, Heat Suggest West Nile Virus Danger In Sacramento Region | The Sacramento Bee
Edward Ortiz @
Higher temperatures, drought are strong predictors for above-average virus years