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THE NOONER for October 8, 2014
Well, Giants, that was ugly. Can we actually win instead of losing less next series?
CA07 (East Sacramento): In what has emerged as one of the hottest races in the country, tonight is the faceoff between Ami Bera (D) and challenger Doug Ose (R). The debate is from 7-8pm and will be aired on KVIE in Sacramento and on Capital Public Radio (including website streaming). Following the debate, Capital Public Radio will host an hour-long analysis.
When I refer to national trends, I'm looking at generic congressional polls, which had Democrats pretty consistently +1 from July through early September. It is now Republicans +2. Yes, elections are won locally, but you can't not include the national picture as one of several factors used in scoring races.
CA09 (San Joaquin): Jerry McNerney will easily win re-election to his fifth term. Moving from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat. Dems now have a 12.6% voter registration margin here.
CA21 (Kings): With national trends, the DCCC pulling ads off the air, and some internal polling, I'm moving this one from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.
CA36 (Coachella): With national trends and with Dems moving from a tied voter registration to a 37.9-39% disadvantage to Republicans, I'm moving this race from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up.
The voter composition SurveyUSA uses is 40% Republican, 35% Democrat, and 25% NPP/other. (Before I get the usual hate mail about using "Democrat" instead of "Democratic," it is grammatically correct. You register as a Republican or Democrat. You don't register Democratic.)
Baseline registration in CD52 is 32.1% D, 33.6% R, and 29.2% NPP. Latinos are 5% of the sample, compared to 9.2% of the citizen voting age population.
As one who has criticized SurveyUSA on sampling before, I have to say that I think they use a pretty good projection of the electorate.
Of course, margin of error is +/- 4.3%. This is razor close and, barring a gaffe by either side, will be determined by turnout.
ASS-U-ME: Perhaps my favorite question asked in the poll is "Who better reflects your views on same-sex marriage?"
Republicans break 53%-22% in favor of DeMaio. Democrats break 74%-15% for Peters.
Let's look at their positions:
Carl DeMaio supports marriage equality. The US Supreme Court has now settled this issue as one of equal protection under the law as it pertains to government, while also protecting the right of religions to define marriage within their own faith.
Scott supports full marriage equality, and is a cosponsor of the Respect for Marriage Act, which would repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in its entirety.
SD14 (Kings): It's getting hot down in the Valley, and this one is going to be razor close. Democrats have had a net move of 2.4% from Republicans on registration since 2012, and now hold an eye-popping 20 point registration margin.
AD66 (Torrance): I considered seriously moving the race between incumbent Al Muratsuchi (D) and challenger David Hadley (R) to a Toss-Up, but given the June results and Democrats increased their voter registration margin by 2.3%, it stays Leans Democrat.
$$$: All the pre-election fundraising reports should now be live here.
GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY: While we're helping the Secretary of State's office focus on priorities like CAL-ACCESS and business filings, let's get rid of the absurd requirement that a randomized alphabet be drawn for every special election, in addition to the three drawings already required to be held per year. I'm sure Assemblymembers Bradford and Hall would be okay using the November 4 alphabet order for their December 9 election.
#CAKEDAY: Light those candles for Michael Kapp! A belated #CAKEDAY to Jeremy Roseman (yesterday).
Steinberg To Launch Mental Health Foundation
Laurel Rosenhall @ sacbee.com
Outgoing Senate leader Darrell Steinberg said Tuesday that after he leaves the Legislature at the end of next month he will form a foundation to work on mental-health policy issues, an area that has long been a priority for the Sacramento Democrat.
Jerry Brown Hits Airwaves With Ads -- For Props. 1 And 2
Carla Marinucci @ blog.sfgate.com
With voters already casting ballots by mail for the Nov. 4 election, Gov. Jerry Brown is starring in new statewide ads -- not for his own re-election campaign, but on behalf of two ballot measures ...
California Redistricting Commission In Jeopardy At Us Supreme Court :: Fox&hounds
The key question the United States Supreme Court must address in deciding if state voters can create redistricting commissions for congressional districts is whether the people can be considered legislators when they create laws through the initiative process. It goes to the heart of the initiative power, which voters in both California and Arizona used to create citizens redistricting commissions.
Jerry Brown airing TV ads for water bond, budget reserve
David Siders @ sacbee.com
With a massive campaign war chest and less than a month before Election Day, Gov. Jerry Brown will start airing television ads Wednesday for a pair of ballot initiatives on the November ballot, his campaign said.
Carefree Gov. Brown Vetoes Freely, Ruffling Some Fellow Democrats
Melody Gutierrez @ sfgate.com
And that, political experts say, is notable because any other Democratic governor seeking re-election would have been constrained in his approach, careful not to burn bridges or offend a supporter.
Prop. 1 Bonds A First Step In Addressing State's Water Needs
Even in wet years, there will never be enough Sierra snowpack to give every interest group and every region in California enough inexpensive water to quench every thirst and satisfy every ambition. The state has a long way to go before it properly takes account of its water limits and updates the way it divvies up this crucial natural resource. Proposition 1, the $7.5-billion water bond on the Nov. 4 ballot, is really just a drop in the bucket. But it's a start.
Wal-mart To End Healthcare Coverage For 30,000 Part-timers
Retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is cutting healthcare benefits for roughly 30,000 part-time employees, citing rising costs.
E-mails show CPUC president cutting deals, critics say
Jaxon Van Derbeken @ sfgate.com
Newly released Pacific Gas and Electric Co. e-mails show that the head of the California Public Utilities Commission was willing to trade utility customersâÂÂ dollars for the companyâÂÂs backing for his favored causes, a ratepayer advocacy group said Tuesday. Long cited a May 2010 e-mail from PG&E vice president Brian Cherry to his boss, Tom Bottorff, both of whom were fired last month when the company released e-mails showing Cherry had lobbied the commission to appoint a preferred judge to hear a rate-setting case. In the 2010 e-mail, which PG&E released Monday, Cherry said utilities commission President Michael Peevey appeared willing to trade favorable consideration in a rate-setting case for PG&EâÂÂs providing $100,000 toward a dinner in honor of the commissionâÂÂs 100th anniversary. Peevey proposed paying PG&E $6 million for the decommissioned meters, which consumer advocates said amounted to a gift to the company. Long also pointed to another part of the 2010 e-mail from Cherry to his boss, in which the utility executive said Peevey appeared to be leaning on PG&E to contribute at least $1 million to fight a ballot measure that would have put a hold on a California law limiting greenhouse gas emissions. âÂÂMike stated very clearly that he expects PG&E to step up big and early in oppositionâÂÂ to the ballot measure, Cherry said in the e-mail, adding that Peevey expected the company to spend âÂÂa lot moreâÂÂ than $1 million.
Gov. Jerry Brown's First Campaign Ads To Hit Airwaves
Gov. Jerry Brown will hit the airwaves Wednesday morning with three TV ads, but instead of promoting his reelection bid for a historic fourth term, he will plug the $7.5-billion water bond measure and the state rainy-day fund on the November ballot.
Money Race Heats Up In Key Assembly Campaigns
Two Men Acquitted On Charges Of Robbing Home Of Former Capitol Peace Officer
Laurel Rosenhall @ sacbee.com
Gerardo Lopez, a Senate sergeant-at-arms at the time of a fatal shooting, was found to have cocaine in his system and later dismissed.
Democrats Keep Cash Lead In Races For Financial Posts
Betty Yee, the Democratic candidate for controller, has more than double the amount of campaign funds available compared to her Republican rival, according to new documents filed with the state.
Newsom Has No Excuse For Avoiding Debates
Dan Morain @ sacbee.com
Debates arenât taking place in top-of-the-ticket races in Ohio, Alabama and Michigan. In New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo is avoiding his opponent, saying he has participated in debates that were a âdisservice to democracy.â
Koret Foundation sued by founderâ
Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross @ sfgate.com
The prestigious Koret Foundation is at the center of a scathing lawsuit in which the founderâÂÂs widow claims longtime board president and Peninsula real estate magnate Tad Taube used the $500 million charity as a personal piggy bank. No sooner was the suit filed, however, than the Koret Foundation shot back with a countersuit seeking to remove Susan Koret âÂÂ the founderâÂÂs second wife, who has a lifetime appointment to the eight-member board âÂÂ for âÂÂincompetenceâÂÂ and breach of duty. The grants include more than $4 million to Stanford University and the conservative Hoover Institution, plus $3.2 million to right-wing political causes âÂÂ including $1 million for the Taube-conceived American Values Initiative at Hoover, where both Taube and Koret Executive Director Jeffrey Farber are on the board. The tech titan keeps an amphibious vehicle for recreational purposes at his home in Hawaii, and he thought San Francisco and the Park Service might be able to use one to help out with water rescues. Once in the water, each was able to fold the deviceâÂÂs wheels and take off on jet-powered water skis, with Hayes-White getting as far as the Golden Gate Bridge. On the way back, Hayes-WhiteâÂÂs ATV flipped when it hit choppy water, pitching the chief into the drink. The moderately banged-up ATV is now at the Fire DepartmentâÂÂs central maintenance shop, awaiting repairs by one of BenioffâÂÂs mechanics.
In Rare O.C. Visit, Gov. Brown Pushes For Irvine Veterans Cemetery
Gov. Jerry Brown made a rare Orange County appearance Tuesday to champion what he said was a bipartisan effort to build a veterans cemetery in Irvine and to stump for a fellow Democrat who is locked in a tight race to hang onto her Assembly seat.
How A Soda Tax Fight In San Francisco Explains California Politics
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Charleston, S.c., Court Issues Same-sex Marriage License Despite Ban
A South Carolina court on Wednesday issued a same-sex marriage license, becoming the latest state to do so since the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this week cleared the way for gay and lesbian people to marry in a number of states.
Another appellate court strikes down same-sex marriage bans, in Idaho and Nevada
Michael Doyle @ sacbee.com
Another appellate court struck down same-sex marriage bans on Tuesday, one day after the Supreme Court declined to take up the issue.
Tapping Into The Ocean With San Diego's Billion Dollar Desalination Plant | Kpbs
Erik Anderson @ kpbs.org
San Diego is about a year away from turning seawater into fresh drinking water. The billion-dollar Carlsbad desalination plant is scheduled to open sometime next fall.
Second Obamacare Enrollment Likely To Be Even Tougher Than First | State Of Health Blog From Kqed News
Anna Gorman and Julie Appleby, @ blogs.kqed.org
By Anna Gorman and Julie Appleby, Kaiser Health News
Endorsements: Three California Supreme Court justices deserve a thumbs up from voters
the Editorial Board @ sacbee.com
Two Supreme Court justices on the Nov. 4 ballot are relatively new Jerry Brown appointees who, by law, must undergo a retention election. The third is a veteran appointed by Gov. Pete Wilson.
Supreme Court puts gay marriages on hold in Idaho and Nevada
Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy issued an order Wednesday to temporarily halt gay marriages in Idaho and Nevada, a day after a federal appeals court declared same-sex weddings legal in those states.