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THE NOONER for July 1, 2014

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Good morning. Read quickly, as the red, white and blue will be facing the waffles at 1pm. 

Yes, we have a result (perhaps) in the controller's race, but let's give some love to the people who bring you The Nooner first.

 

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Loved talking to so many of my friends yesterday. And, if you think elected office is glamorous, remember the life of Carcetti.

If you work for minimum wage, your hourly increases to $9.00 today, unless you work on a campaign (#AlwaysWorking) or as a Senate or Assembly fellow (#StillAGreatGig). Hat tip to my law school classmate Luis Alejo for delivering the phased-in increase, and then standing by last year's deal by resisting a further increase in committee last week, something I am guessing was morally challenging for him but politically and ethically the right thing to do.

I'm focusing mostly on the Controller's race today, but there are some great stories covered by our reporter friends, including on the water bond, gay marriage, and LA supervisor following my ramblings. It may be July, but we're still content-rich! 

CONTROLLER: We have a final (subject to certification, etc.) result in the state controller's race, and Betty Yee emerges as the winner of the second spot in top-two by 484 votes. I have left the projection charts below the second jump, and you'll see just how consistent they were. Under the current vote projection, we had a raw vote margin of 451. 

Here are the final results, and a hat tip to John Hrabe because I admittedly stole the table of results off his site.

CandidateVotesPercent
Tammy D. Blair 200,531 4.964%
John A. Pérez 877,707 21.729%
Betty T. Yee 878,191 21.741%
David Evans 850,104 21.046%
Ashley Swearengin 1,001,469 24.793%
Laura Wells 231,351 5.727%

 

Now the question becomes whether Perez, or an ally, will seek a recount. Any voter can request a recount within five days from today, although that voter has to pay for it unless the result changes. This can be costly, as we saw in CA31. Lesli Gooch called off the recount after incurring $6,330 in one day and only picking up one vote. John Hrabe has drawn this out to a recount cost of over $3 million for Perez.

Of course, a statewide recount is a whole other animal. There is no such thing as a "statewide recount." A voter seeking a recount chooses not only what county to start in, but also which precinct(s), or even which ballots (i.e. disqualified). Thus, Perez or his supporters would first look to counties that had the largest margin for him.

So, here are the data the campaign is likely looking at. If you're going to do a recount in this top-two situation, you want not only counties in which you received a large overall margin, but also those with the greatest difference from your competititor (Yee). So, here are Perez's shares of vote and difference from Yee, sorted by difference from Yee.

As you can see, a recount effort would clearly focus on Imperial County. How many disqualified votes are there? The chances are that most disqualified votes would be for Perez. The county reported 17,476 ballots, so a 1% disqualification rate could yield 75 votes for Perez, assuming disqualifications were equally distributed among voter preference.

Los Angeles is obviously attractive because of the volume of votes, although precincts would have to be selective, as Perez only beat Yee in the state's largest county by 4.8%. While the City of Angels is Perez's home base, it wouldn't make sense that a recount starts there, unless there is evidence of a significant irregularity.

 

CandidateCountyShare of VoteDifference from Yee
Perez Imperial 41.4 31.2
Perez Kern 18.1 9.7
Perez Kings 14.9 9
Perez Merced 18.8 8.9
Perez Napa 28.2 8.3
Perez San Bernardino 20.9 8
Perez Lake 26 7.4
Perez Tulare 14.5 7.3
Perez Riverside 20.5 6.1
Perez Stanislaus 20.5 5.4
Perez Los Angeles 27.8 4.8
Perez Ventura 20 4.7
Perez Sutter 14 4
Perez Colusa 15 3.8
Perez Fresno 16.3 2.9
Perez Glenn 10.3 2.5
Perez San Mateo 30.8 2.5
Perez Yuba 13.4 2.2
Perez Madera 12.2 1.9
Perez Orange 15.6 1.4
Perez Inyo 14.4 0.7
Perez Solano 23.3 0.5
Perez Calaveras 15.2 0.2
Perez Contra Costa 25.9 -0.3
Perez San Joaquin 19.8 -0.3
Perez Butte 13.1 -0.6
Perez Santa Clara 27.2 -0.9
Perez Amador 14.8 -1.2
Perez Tehama 9.7 -1.2
Perez Santa Barbara 19.4 -1.5
Perez Lassen 10.1 -1.6
Perez San Diego 16.9 -2.4
Perez Mariposa 10.9 -2.6
Perez Tuolumne 14.6 -2.7
Perez El Dorado 13.5 -2.9
Perez Placer 14.1 -3.2
Perez Yolo 26.5 -3.3
Perez San Benito 19.7 -3.8
Perez Plumas 13.2 -3.9
Perez Alameda 29.6 -4.3
Perez Sonoma 25.3 -4.5
Perez Sierra 11.3 -4.7
Perez Del Norte 12.6 -4.9
Perez Trinity 13.1 -5
Perez Sacramento 20.7 -5.1
Perez Modoc 7 -5.4
Perez Shasta 9.9 -5.7
Perez Mono 14.1 -6.6
Perez Alpine 15.7 -7.6
Perez Siskiyou 11 -8.5
Perez Humboldt 16.3 -9.3
Perez Mendocino 19.6 -9.7
Perez Nevada 12.3 -12.2
Perez San Luis Obispo 12.7 -12.2
Perez Monterey 18.4 -12.9
Perez Marin 24.4 -13.6
Perez Santa Cruz 19.3 -16.9
Perez San Francisco 26.1 -18

CONTROLLER CONTEST: Believe it or not, I won the Lake County Cliffhanger contest, making up for my awful showing in the overall election contest. I will forgo the Starbucks card and buy me some awesome Pepper Peddler coffee.

My guesses were 1,260 votes for Perez and 920 for Yee, which were -45 for Perez and -8 for Yee. The funny thing is that I entered those guesses when I was testing the script and never went back and thought about them. However, the simple math of assuming 80% validity of ballots and applying that to the current vote percentages yielded the best result.

The next closest participant was Paul Mitchell -95 for Perez and +28 for Yee. And, yes, there were 51 contestants, so it wasn't just Paul and me.

THOROUGHLY DISAGREE: It's time for legislative employees to join civil service [Dan Walters @ SacBee]

I agree that legislative hearings should have to follow the Brown Act. However, to say that legislative staff should be bumped from other agencies into the Capitol is just bunk. If the people of Yolo County (and others) turned into zombies and elected me to the Legislature, they would want me to hire people working for them, rather than focused on their personal passions or years of service.

NUMBERED:

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Denise Ng and John Stratman, and Austin Webster!

 

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September 25, 2014 - 9AM-4PM - Registration: 8AM; CalPERS Auditorium (400 Q Street, Sacramento)
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CONTROLLER'S RACE: 

 

Projection Spreadsheets: Election Day | Total Vote 

 


 

**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • Kidsdata.org Webinar: How To Put Legislative District Data To Work For California Children
    Learn how to use legislative district data and maps on kidsdata.org, a free, nonpartisan website tracking more than 500 measures of child health and well-being.
    Tue., July 15, 10:00 AM - 11:00 a.m. More information and registration>>

  • Jay Hansen for School Board Fundraiser
    Monday, June 30th - 5:30-7:30pm
    Chicory, 1121 11th Street, Sacramento
    www.rally.org/hansen4boe
  • Capitol Weekly Top 100 Party
    Tuesday, August 19, 5:30 PM  – 8:30 PM
    The Senator Hotel, 1121 L Street, Sacramento
    Get your tickets here!


 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Legislature Seeks Voter Sentiment On Campaign Cash - Sfgate
FENIT NIRAPPIL, Associated Press @
sfgate.com
The legislation calls for an advisory ballot measure asking if voters want an amendment to the U.S. Constitutional clamping down on corporate campaign giving. If signed by Brown, SB1272 by Sen. Ted Lieu, D-Torrance, would place the advisory measure on the November ballot asking voters if they want a federal constitutional amendment overturning the Citizens United ruling. California became the second state, after Vermont, to take that step last week when Senate lawmakers voted for AJR1, which petitions for an amendment overturning the Citizens United ruling. Former Assembly Speaker John Perez, a Los Angeles Democrat who stepped down from the leadership post in May, voted for SB1272 on Monday but questioned whether having a public vote is necessary given that lawmakers already took a substantive step toward proposing an amendment.

Assembly To Unveil $8.25-billion Water Bond Proposal Tuesday
Melanie Mason @
latimes.com
A group of lawmakers leading the water bond negotiations in the Assembly are set to unveil their own plan Tuesday morning, in hopes of pushing through a new measure before the Legislature goes on summer recess later this week.

Berkeley considers putting tax on sugary drinks on ballot
sfgate.com
The measure, which has little opposition from Berkeley officials, would be a 1-cent-per-ounce excise tax on companies that distribute soda, sweetened teas and other beverages with added sugar. San Francisco's proposal, also set for the Nov. 4 ballot, is a 2-cents-per-ounce tax on distributors and requires a two-thirds majority to pass. Because Berkeley's tax goes into the general fund, not a fund dedicated to a specific purpose, it requires only 50 percent to pass. Combatting marketingXavier Morales, director of Latino Coalition for a Healthy California, said soda taxes - coupled with health education programs - are an effective way to fight obesity and diabetes, especially among Latinos and African Americans.

Home Healthcare Ruling May Inhibit Growth Of Powerful Union
Alana Semuels @
latimes.com
Fast-expanding SEIU may see growth slow after Supreme Court decides to let home healthcare workers opt out of paying union fees.

Former Calpers Ceo Buenrostro Plans To Plead Guilty In Pension Corruption Case, Lawyer Says
sacbee.com
Fred Buenrostro

State Controller's Race: Final Batch Of Ballots Maintain Yee's Slim Hold On Second Place
Katie Nelson @
mercurynews.com
In final numbers released late Monday after the county's mail-in ballots were counted in their entirety, Yee held a grand total of 878,191 votes statewide. Perez's updated statewide tally was 877,707 votes.

Looming California Laws Abortion, Campaigns, State Workers
Jeremy B. White @
blogs.sacbee.com
Abortion providers, gun owners, state job applicants and school budget chiefs will be among those affected by a wave of California laws kicking in on Tuesday.

L.A. Supervisor Candidate Shriver Won't Self-Finance Runoff Campaign
Catherine Saillant @
latimes.com
As he heads to a November runoff with former state lawmaker Sheila Kuehl, Los Angeles supervisor candidate Bobby Shriver won't be funding his campaign using personal wealth, a campaign official said Monday.

Barack Obama Silicon Valley's Last Immigration Reform Hope After John Boehner Says No Vote - Silicon Valley Business Journal
bizjournals.com
President Barack Obama may be Silicon Valley's last hope for swift action on stalled immigration reform efforts.

Final* Results: Betty Yee takes second place in nail-biter race for state controller
calnewsroom.com
All the votes have been counted, but the race for state controller isn't final - yet. With the final votes from Lake County tallied, Board of Equalization member Betty Yee has taken second place in the race for state controller, besting fellow Democrat Asm. John A. Perez by just 484 votes. Based on the 31st Congressional District recount, it would cost Perez $3.06 million to gain the 484 votes he's currently down.

Perez beats Yee by 180 votes in state controller's race
blogs.sacbee.com
A month after the primary election, Democrat John A. Pérez finished just 180 votes ahead of Betty Yee for second-place in the state controller's race, officials announced Monday.

Legislation updates California marriage laws
Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
California's family laws would reflect the legality of same-sex marriage under a bill headed to the governor's desk.

Bill to update California marriage laws headed to governor's desk
Associated Press @
mercurynews.com
The bill removes language from the family code that says marriage must be 'between a man and a woman' and substitutes gender-neutral language throughout. The bill also would remove limits on recognizing out-of-state same-sex marriages.

California Unions Have Big Stake In Supreme Court Dues Ruling
Jon Ortiz @
sacbee.com
The U.S. Supreme Court chipped away at government-employee union power on Monday by ruling that Illinois home-support workers paid with public money can reject union membership.

Berkeley City Council set to vote on soda tax
Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
Officials in the San Francisco Bay Area city of Berkeley are set to decide whether to put a soda tax on the November ballot.

Experts: Health care waste an issue
politico.com
They say over-treatment and preventable medical errors are huge drivers of health care costs.

Legislature seeks voter sentiment on campaign cash
FENIT NIRAPPIL Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
California voters could weigh in this fall on a measure that asks whether they favor an amendment to the U.S. Constitution limiting the power of money in politics.

California Low-carbon Rule Survives Big Legal Challenge
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger speaks at the second Governors' Global Climate Summit in Los Angeles Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009.

Prison Officials Seek Delay Of Inmate Deadline - Times Union
DON THOMPSON, Associated Press @
timesunion.com
Greenbush Area Branch of the Capital District YMCA is looking to f... more »

Former CalPERS CEO Buenrostro plans to plead guilty in pension corruption case, laywer says
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
SAN FRANCISCO –Fred Buenrostro, the former chief executive of CalPERS, plans to plead guilty in connection with one of the biggest corruption cases in the pension fund’s history.

The Splintering Of One-party Rule :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
When Democrats took two-thirds majority of both legislative houses and won all the constitutional offices in the last election some commentators suggested that one-party control would result in opposing factions forming in the ruling party. There are signs that it is starting to happen.

Gallup Poll: Confidence In Supreme Court Falls To 30%
latimes.com
There was time when a majority of Americans were confident in their Supreme Court, but those positive feelings have been eroding in the last quarter of a century so that just 30% now say they have confidence in the institution, according to a Gallup poll.

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy Held For Questioning
latimes.com
Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was being held for questioning by authorities Tuesday over allegations that he had a network of informers feeding him information about police investigations into the funding of his 2007 election campaign.

Bill limiting time for football practice concerns coaches
sfgate.com
AB2127, which has passed legislative muster and awaits Gov. Jerry Brown's signature, would limit full-contact football practice sessions for high school players to 90 minutes twice a week, prohibit two-a-day practices on consecutive days and automatically sideline a player who has suffered a concussion for a week until he or she is medically cleared to return to action. The legislation would prohibit full-contact drills in the off-season and calls on the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Academy of Sports Medicine to develop standard protocols for a player's return to the field after a head injury. Justin Alumbaugh, head coach of the powerhouse De La Salle High School football team, said in an e-mail that he's forwarded the bill to the team's medical staff and raised questions with the interscholastic federation. If the bill is approved without changes, it's going to put players at greater risk because its restrictions would reduce their readiness to play, said Chad Nightingale, the veteran head coach of Salesian High School's football team in Richmond. Whether Cooley's bill becomes law or not, what parents need to be clear about is that football is a full-body contact sport. [...] despite the development of better equipment, stricter rules and greater regulation designed to make the game safer, it will remain violent.