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THE NOONER for May 22, 2014
Good morning. Another morning of bad hotel coffee. Oh, how I miss my Pepper Peddler. Thank you to the generous reader who sent a couple of jars!
DEADLINE: Today is the pre-election filing deadline for both state and federal candidates on the ballot in California's June 3 primary. For state, the filing period ran through May 17, and through May 14 for federal.
POLL POSITION: SurveyUSA released a poll yesterday conducted on behalf of several media outlets. We had an interesting conversation about the methodology on Twitter yesterday, particularly citing that they found found 610 of their 871 respondents who were registered were had voted or were "certain to vote" by June 3. That's 70%, which is at least more than double the turnout of recent primaries, and this one is shaping up to be below 30%.
SurveyUSA, which uses automated polling software ("press 1") targeting landline and cells, responded that people who answer the phone and actually participate in a poll are thus more likely to vote. So, their software could have reached 2,500 people, two-thirds of whom hungup because they don't care and won't vote. That would make the likely voter projections in their poll more reasonable. Still, it's not what they'd teach you in Survey Methods 101.
Paul Mitchell takes on SurveyUSA.
That said, SurveyUSA fared okay in 2012 and generally has had a track record on par with other pollsters.
Now, more unjustifiable flaw was in not listing two major candidates for Secretary of State--Derek Cressman and Dan Schnur. That's just irresponsible. And, this is one of the flaws with Robodial polls, where to increase response rates and limit confusion, you have to limit choices. It works okay for general elections when you only have two major candidates, but in a race like Secretary of State, picking three of the seven candidates in a top-two primary is malpractice.
Okay, now we can look at the SurveyUSA results:
Tim Donnelly cheers on the numbers by reminding people to vote on June 2. I guess a day early is better than a day late with the June 3 election.
Secretary of State:
[n=610 likely of 1,000 sampled; 5/16-5/19/2014; robodial landline and mobile questionnaire; MOE not provided]
Meanwhile, PPIC is out with its monthly statewide survey.
Governor (primary likely voters):
(note the much higher undecided than SurveyUSA--do Robocalls encourage people to pick a candidate more than live interviews?)
"Most important issue facing people in California"
The poll also tested the response to the governor's budget proposal, which the UTSD's Michael Gardner writes up.
[n=1,192 live landline/cell interviews; 5/8-15/2014; MOE +/- 3.6%]
TURNOUT: June California primary could set record for lowest turnout ever [Ed Coughlan @ CAFWD]
BIG BROTHER: There is now an enhanced Mary Hayashi shoplifting video, not surprisingly courtesy of Bob Wieckowski's campaign.
WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM MY FRIENDS: A new independent expenditure committee to boost Neel Kashkari and take down Tim Donnelly sprung up this week, with major funding ($350,000 of $415,000) coming from Charles Munger. In today's IE reports (located below), the IE reported spending $344,532 for a statewide mailer to support Kashkari and oppose Donnelly.
MEET ME HALFWAY: As budget subcommittees try to close out today, Darrell Steinberg will unveil a modified version of his universal preschool--called "Fair Start"--which will target low-income kids 0-4, rather than all 4 year-olds.
Dems Stake Out Negotiating Ground in Budget Fight [Ben Adler @ CapPubRad]
STRS: At noon or upon adjournment of session, there will be a joint hearing of the Senate Public Employment and Retirement and Assembly Public Employees, Retirement and Social Security Committees to review the governor's May Revision proposal to fully fund CalSTRS over the next 33 years. While it seems like there will definitely be a deal in the budget, the four big questions are:
BARRY TAKES A STROLL: President Obama takes surprise walk in D.C. [Politico]
PHO SURE: The Taiwanese animators have their take on the attempt by Texas to court the maker of Sriracha.
JOBS: There are three new jobs listed in today's classified ads!
#CAKEDAY: Light them candles for Dwayne Crenshaw, Abel Guillen, and Brian Maienschein!
The June 2014 NOONER Contest is now open!
Once again, The NOONER is providing an opportunity for you to prove your chops as a forecaster of California elections or, like I do with March Madness, show how little most of us really know.
Your personalized NOONER contest link is:
Once again, it is designed so you can either be anonymous or have your name in lights. Last year, we had about 500 participants and I will once again only show the top 25 scores, but you'll be able to see your score and rank. You will be able to make your picks and change your answers (via same link) through Sunday, June 1 at 5pm PDT.
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Outside Donor Group Comes To Neel Kashkari's Aid
David Siders @ blogs.sacbee.com
Neel Kashkari will get a lift from a newly formed independent expenditure committee in the final days of the gubernatorial primary campaign, with Republican benefactor Charles Munger Jr. and billionaire Robert Day financing mailers supporting Kashkari and opposing rival Tim Donnelly, according to reports filed with the state Wednesday.
Dems Stake Out Negotiating Ground In Budget Fight
Ben Adler @ capradio.org
California Governor Jerry Brownâs latest budget proposal wonât get much love over the next couple of days. Legislative Democrats will reject several parts of Brownâs plan â and add more money to key education and social service programs.
Tim Donnelly Sees His Business Failure As Asset In Governor's Race
Tim Donnelly, a Republican candidate for California governor, points to government as the reason for his failed business.
Fresno spends $232,000 in taxpayer funds on water rate lawsuits
The City of Fresno has spent nearly a quarter million dollars in taxpayer funds in its ongoing lawsuits to block a water rate referendum from the ballot.
Schools Chief Candidate Files Ethics Complaint Against Teacher Union
Alexei Koseff @ blogs.sacbee.com
Marshall Tuck, one of two challengers in this year's race for state superintendent of public instruction, has filed an ethics complaint against the California Teachers Association for a series of television ads supporting incumbent Tom Torlakson.
State lawmakers urging CCSF accreditor to extend deadline
Sacramento - State lawmakers introduced a pair of resolutions urging the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges to give City College of San Francisco more time to fix problems and avoid closure. The state Senate and Assembly resolutions are intended to show that lawmakers want the accrediting commission to reconsider or rescind its termination decision, which the U.S. Department of Education told The Chronicle the commission has the authority to do. "For the (commission) to refuse to allow good-cause extension - even after this clarification from the Department of Education, even after all the monumental progress City College has made along its Roadmap to Success - would be destructive, irresponsible, and could be viewed as a political act," Pelosi said in a statement this week.
Study Sees Modest Costs In Healthcare For Immigrants Here Illegally
Extending healthcare to people in the country illegally would cost the state a modest amount more but would significantly improve health while potentially saving money for taxpayers down the road, according to a study released Wednesday.
Billionaire Tom Steyer Will Use Clout And Cash To Boost Democrats, Environment, In Key Races
Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer plans to finance full-fledged political campaigns in at least seven states key to Democratic fortunes in the 2014 midterms and the 2016 presidential race, further cementing his rapid rise as one of the party’s most influential patrons.
Senate Panel Passes Fundraising Blackout, Ethics Ombudsman
Jeremy B. White @ blogs.sacbee.com
With the California Senate beset by ethics scandals that have led to the departure of three senators and an in-house law enforcement officer, the chamber's Rules Committee moved on Wednesday to enact new fundraising restrictions and open a channel for whistleblowers.
Poll: Support For Brown's Budget
Michael Gardner @ utsandiego.com
Despite a slight slip, Gov. Jerry Brown remains popular among California voters and he enters budget negotiations with broad public support for his spending strategy primarily focused on paying down debt and building reserves, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Neel Kashkari Likens Tim Donnelly To Jerry Brown In Latest Ad
David Siders @ blogs.sacbee.com
Barbara Boxer To Lead Big Climate Rally At Capitol - Politics Blog
More than 40 members of Congress will hold a climate rally at the Capitol Wednesday afternoon, part of a drum roll to the Obama administration's impending rule to tighten emissions on existing coal...
Momentum building for S.F. to enact Laura's Law
Supervisor Mark Farrell's announcement this week that he plans to put the measure on the November ballot raises the stakes. Opponents of the law, which is used to compel severely mentally ill subjects into outpatient treatment, had better look long and hard at their position, because some polls have Laura's Law at over 70 percent public approval. Today, I can say we carry a net savings because we are reducing time spent in jail and locked psychiatric hospitals. 'All take their meds'"I would say in our county what the law does is protect patients who were ending up locked up in a hospital or jail," he says. [...] there's a behind-the-scenes reason. Strident patient advocacy groups warned county health departments that it would be illegal for them to use funds from the Mental Health Services Act (Proposition 63), passed by California voters in 2004. Fearful of a lawsuit"Behavioral health directors resisted Laura's Law because of the threat of a lawsuit," said Dr. John Rouse, attending physician with San Francisco General Hospital Inpatient Psychiatry and Psychiatric Emergency Services. A college sophomore, she was filling in as a receptionist at the Nevada County Department of Behavioral Health for a week, while on Christmas break. Killed 3 peopleOn Jan. 10, 2001, Scott Thorpe, a severely mentally ill man in his 30s, walked into the clinic and opened fire.
Fracking: New Monterey Shale Oil Estimate Rocks California's Expectations
Josh Richman @ mercurynews.com
The news, which cut the forecast by 96 percent, weakened hopes for an oil boom that would bring millions of jobs and billions of dollars in new tax revenue to the Golden State, home to about two-thirds of the country's shale oil reserves. But foes of hydraulic fracturing -- which uses pressurized liquid to break rock formations to mine gas or oil -- were over the moon. They argued that the new estimate by U.S. Energy Information Administration scientists makes fracking in California politically unfeasible considering the potential environmental and seismic damage.
Donnelly Uses Condom Bill To Buttress Libertarian Case
Donnelly seizes opportunity to cast himself as libertarian in Assembly vote on condom porn bill
Conservatives Draft Manifesto to Help Republicans Attract Middle-Class Voters
The 121-page document, to be unveiled Thursday, features eight essays with proposals on issues including health care, taxes and education.
Severe Drought Leads To Dying Lawns At State Capitol
The state Capitol grounds are a bit less green this year, thanks to California's severe drought.
Washington: Feinstein’s Anti-drought Bill May Face Rough Waters In House | Environment | Mcclatchy Dc
Michael Doyle @ mcclatchydc.com
WASHINGTON — Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s newly finished California water bill that’s designed for quick Senate approval gratifies some farmers while alienating some fishermen, tribes and environmentalists.
Funds Overseer Illegally Fired In Union Leader Probe, Suit Claims
The federal government filed a lawsuit Wednesday accusing officers who oversee benefit trust funds for Southern California cement workers of illegally ousting an employee because she cooperated with a criminal investigation of a local union leader.
Pennsylvania Governor Abandons Appeal On Same-sex Marriage Ruling
Pennsylvania will not appeal a federal court ruling that overturned the state’s ban on same-sex marriage, ending the battle over the issue in the Keystone State, Gov. Tom Corbett announced on Wednesday.
Neel Kashkari cuts into Tim Donnelly’s lead in GOP race for governor
David Siders @ sacbee.com
Neel Kashkari has cut into Tim Donnelly’s lead among Republican candidates for governor, aided by an infusion of his own money in an increasingly divisive, inter-party race, according to a new poll.
No Money For Accurate Count Of Childcare Needs
Kimberly Beltran @ cabinetreport.com
Advocates for lower and middle income families have pressed lawmakers and the governor for much of the last year to return hundreds of millions of dollars slashed from the state budget since the recession for child welfare programs.