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THE NOONER for May 22, 2014

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Good morning. Another morning of bad hotel coffee. Oh, how I miss my Pepper Peddler. Thank you to the generous reader who sent a couple of jars!  

DEADLINE: Today is the pre-election filing deadline for both state and federal candidates on the ballot in California's June 3 primary. For state, the filing period ran through May 17, and through May 14 for federal.

GEEKDOME: Paul Mitchell: Shockingly Predictable - and an updated ballot returns report, and here is an estimated turnout thus far:

4.9% 4.7% 6.1% 3.8%

POLL POSITION: SurveyUSA released a poll yesterday conducted on behalf of several media outlets. We had an interesting conversation about the methodology on Twitter yesterday, particularly citing that they found found 610 of their 871 respondents who were registered were had voted or were "certain to vote" by June 3. That's 70%, which is at least more than double the turnout of recent primaries, and this one is shaping up to be below 30%.

SurveyUSA, which uses automated polling software ("press 1") targeting landline and cells, responded that people who answer the phone and actually participate in a poll are thus more likely to vote. So, their software could have reached 2,500 people, two-thirds of whom hungup because they don't care and won't vote. That would make the likely voter projections in their poll more reasonable. Still, it's not what they'd teach you in Survey Methods 101.

Paul Mitchell takes on SurveyUSA.

That said, SurveyUSA fared okay in 2012 and generally has had a track record on par with other pollsters.

Now, more unjustifiable flaw was in not listing two major candidates for Secretary of State--Derek Cressman and Dan Schnur. That's just irresponsible. And, this is one of the flaws with Robodial polls, where to increase response rates and limit confusion, you have to limit choices. It works okay for general elections when you only have two major candidates, but in a race like Secretary of State, picking three of the seven candidates in a top-two primary is malpractice.

Okay, now we can look at the SurveyUSA results:


  • Jerry Brown (D): 57%
  • Tim Donnelly (R): 18%
  • Neel Kashkari (R): 11%
  • Another Candidate: 4%
  • Undecided: 10%

Tim Donnelly cheers on the numbers by reminding people to vote on June 2. I guess a day early is better than a day late with the June 3 election.

State Controller:

  • Ashley Swearengin (R): 31%
  • Betty Yee (D): 24%
  • John Perez (D): 18%
  • Another Candidate: 8%
  • Undecided: 18%

Secretary of State:

  • Alex Padilla (D): 48%
  • Pete Peterson (R): 32%
  • Another Candidate: 9%
  • Undecided: 11%

[n=610 likely of 1,000 sampled; 5/16-5/19/2014; robodial landline and mobile questionnaire; MOE not provided] 

Meanwhile, PPIC is out with its monthly statewide survey.

Governor (primary likely voters):

  • Jerry Brown: 48%
  • Tim Donnelly: 15%
  • Neel Kashkari: 10%
  • Someone else: 1%
  • Don't know: 27%

(note the much higher undecided than SurveyUSA--do Robocalls encourage people to pick a candidate more than live interviews?)

"Most important issue facing people in California"

  • 33% jobs, economy 
  • 12 water, drought 
  • 8 education, schools, teachers 
  • 7 state budget, deficit, taxes 
  • 5 immigration, illegal immigration 
  • 4 crime, gangs, drugs 
  • 3 housing costs, availability 
  • 2 environment, pollution, global 
  • warming 
  • 2 health care, health reform, 
  • Obamacare 
  • 2 homelessness 
  • 19 other 
  • 3 don’t know

The standards:

  • Jerry Brown approval rating: 50% approve, 30% disapprove, 20% don't know
  • Legislature approval rating: 40% approve, 44% disapprove, 16% don't know
  • California: 45% right direction, 48% wrong direction, 7% don't know
  • Economic outlook: 44% good times, 47% bad times, 9% don't know

The poll also tested the response to the governor's budget proposal, which the UTSD's Michael Gardner writes up

[n=1,192 live landline/cell interviews; 5/8-15/2014; MOE +/- 3.6%]

TURNOUT: June California primary could set record for lowest turnout ever [Ed Coughlan @ CAFWD]

BIG BROTHER: There is now an enhanced Mary Hayashi shoplifting video, not surprisingly courtesy of Bob Wieckowski's campaign.

WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM MY FRIENDS: A new independent expenditure committee to boost Neel Kashkari and take down Tim Donnelly sprung up this week, with major funding ($350,000 of $415,000) coming from Charles Munger. In today's IE reports (located below), the IE reported spending $344,532 for a statewide mailer to support Kashkari and oppose Donnelly.

MEET ME HALFWAY: As budget subcommittees try to close out today, Darrell Steinberg will unveil a modified version of his universal preschool--called "Fair Start"--which will target low-income kids 0-4, rather than all 4 year-olds. 

Dems Stake Out Negotiating Ground in Budget Fight [Ben Adler @ CapPubRad]

STRS: At noon or upon adjournment of session, there will be a joint hearing of the Senate Public Employment and Retirement and Assembly Public Employees, Retirement and Social Security Committees to review the governor's May Revision proposal to fully fund CalSTRS over the next 33 years. While it seems like there will definitely be a deal in the budget, the four big questions are:

  1. What valuation funding target do you seek? (Governor seeks 100%, at CalSTRS 7.5% rate of projected return)
  2. What is the target year for reaching the target? (Governor seeks 2047)
  3. What is the start date for increased employer and employee contributions? (Governor seeks July 1)
  4. Should the state provide funding to school and community college districts for the increased contributions? (Governor does not, although both segments have significant new funding in budget, just not earmarked for STRS)

BARRY TAKES A STROLL: President Obama takes surprise walk in D.C. [Politico]

PHO SURE: The Taiwanese animators have their take on the attempt by Texas to court the maker of Sriracha.

JOBS: There are three new jobs listed in today's classified ads!

#CAKEDAY: Light them candles for Dwayne Crenshaw, Abel Guillen, and Brian Maienschein!



Editorial Board Endorsements
Bakersfield Californian Jerry Brown, Neel Kashkari*   Dan Schnur  Kamala Harris Ashley Swearengin, Betty Yee     Marshall Tuck 
LA Daily News Jerry Brown, Neel Kashkari   Pete Peterson     Ashley Swearengin      
LA Times   Gavin Newsom  Pete Peterson   Ashley Swearengin John Chiang  Dave Jones Marshall Tuck
OC Register                
Sac Bee Jerry Brown, Neel Kashkari*   Dan Schnur, Alex Padilla   Betty Yee, Ashley Swearengin     Marshall Tuck
San Jose Mercury News                
SFChron     Dan Schnur   Betty Yee     Marshall Tuck
UT San Diego Not Tim Donnelly              Marshall Tuck 
* mostly endorsements of Brown re-election, with suggestion that Kashkari is best for the GOP/campaign.



The June 2014 NOONER Contest is now open!

Once again, The NOONER is providing an opportunity for you to prove your chops as a forecaster of California elections or, like I do with March Madness, show how little most of us really know.

  • First prize: $100 Amazon Gift Card or donation to your charity
  • Second prize: $50 Amazon Gift Card or donation to your charity
  • Third prize: $25 Amazon Gift Card or donation to your charity

Your personalized NOONER contest link is:


Once again, it is designed so you can either be anonymous or have your name in lights. Last year, we had about 500 participants and I will once again only show the top 25 scores, but you'll be able to see your score and rank. You will be able to make your picks and change your answers (via same link) through Sunday, June 1 at 5pm PDT.




  • American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network. Government Relations Director, Los Angeles Region. Direct ACS CAN government relations program in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara & San Luis Obispo Counties. Based in Los Angeles. Manage relationships with local, state & federal elected officials. Build coalitions. Serve as spokesperson. Some fundraising. 5-7 years policy & political experience. Spanish speaker preferred. Min. Salary: $77K. Info & application online:, Job ID: 17114.
  • Attorney or near-attorney interested in lobbying, developing public policies to protect the First Amendment, the public’s right to know and a fair and equitable California business environment.  More fun than a truck o’ monkeys.  Benefits.  EOE. Cover letter and Resume to
  • Executive Director - The Sacramento LGBT Community Center is in its 28 year serving the community located in the heart of Sacramento’s Lavender Heights neighborhood. As the chief executive officer, the ED leads the organization and is responsible for the overall administration and management of the Sacramento LGBT Community Center and fulfillment of its mission.  Center’s fiscal, operations, fundraising, marketing, human resource, technology, and programmatic strategies are effectively implemented across all segments of the organization.
  • Join the Sacramento Chapter of New Leaders Council at the 5th Annual “Party for Progress” on May 27, 2014 from 5 to 8pm at The Park Ultra Lounge. Enjoy drinks and hors d’oeuvres while our 2014 Fellows honor Senator Kevin de Leófor his progressive leadership, as well as unveil the two winners of the Up-and-Coming Progressive Leader Award. Purchase a place on the guest list or become a sponsor at: NLC is a 501(c)(3) dedicated to training and supporting the next generation of progressive political entrepreneurs. For more information, contact: Paco Torres,

  • The Michelson 20 Million Minds Foundation (20MM) is pleased to invite policy makers, staff, and members of the Capitol Community to a free screening of the Ivory Tower on June 16 at 6:00 PM at the beautiful Crest Theater in downtown Sacramento. This groundbreaking documentary focuses on the issues surrounding higher education affordability in light of rapidly rising tuition and national student debt, which has now surpassed $1.2 trillion. The screening will be followed by an informative discussion with director Andrew Rossi and leading higher education advocates. RSVP @ Please contact Sergio Rosas, 626.396.7071, or Reid Milburn at,, 916.969.6171, for more information.
  • SAVE THE DATE: Capitol Network is hosting its 26th annual charitable golf tournament and wine and olive oil tasting Thursday, October 16, 2014 at Yocha Dehe Golf Club. For more information visit
  • California Medical Association seeks experienced Executive Assistant/Scheduler to support the Chief Operating Officer. Strong organizational, communication and technical skills required. Competitive salary/full benefits. More info here:
  • THE BEST WAY FOR YOU TO LEARN THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS AND HOW TO LOBBY MORE EFFECTIVELY. Veteran lobbyist Ray LeBov presents his "Lobbying 101" and "Lobbying 201" seminars June 5-6, covering the complete spectrum of governmental advocacy. $250 each. Essential for lobbying firm principals / support staff, organizations that employ lobbyists, public agencies. Complete info / registration: or 916 442 5009.
  • FedEx Government Affairs Seeks Administrative Assistant to support the staff and office for the Western Region.
    Candidates with experience in government, public affairs, and or lobbying are preferred. Strong office administration skills, ability to multi-task and interface with executive level management required. For more information and to apply, go to:
  • Zan Media (415-897-8393) provides one stop shopping for campaigns, issues, measures. Media pros with 34 year track record - TV/radio ads, PSA’s and persuasive web videos, video news releases.
    "Working with Zan Media always helps me get the message across. Chris and Don Scioli have fun, creative concepts that they make even better when translated to video. Zan Media’s work really works for me!”"
  • 7th Annual Assembly Veteran of the Year Luncheon is scheduled for Wednesday, June 25th (Sacramento Convention Center). Corporate & individual sponsorships are available. The event is co-sponsored by Assemblymembers Pérez, Quirk-Silva & Chávez. All Assemblymembers select a veteran to honor from their district. For more information contact: Pete Conaty, 916 492-0550,



Independent Expenditure Reports
Updated Hourly

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Amy Howorth (Support) $900 05/12/2014 05/21/2014
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Amy Howorth (Support) $10,400 05/14/2014 05/21/2014
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Amy Howorth (Support) $25,000 05/15/2014 05/21/2014
Alliance To Get California Working Political Action Committee Bill Dodd (Support) $10,324 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) City Of San Diego Barrio Logan Community Plan (Support) $3,852 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) City Of San Diego Barrio Logan Coummunity Plan (Support) $3,852 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
Barnes, Mosher, Whitehurst, Lauter & Partners, Inc. & Affiliated Entities John Chiang (Support) $5,000 05/02/2014 05/21/2014
Bloomfield Jr., William E. Ben Allen (Support) $25,262 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Richard Pan (Oppose) $43,161 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
California Apartment Association Political Action Committee Dave Cortese (Oppose) $18,375 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
California Charter Schools Association Advocates Independent Expenditure Committee Bonnie Garcia (Support) $31,287 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure Pac Ling Ling Chang (Support) $129,350 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee - California Association Of Realtors Steve Glazer (Support) $59,719 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee - California Association Of Realtors Steve Glazer (Support) $212 05/19/2014 05/21/2014
Californians For Fiscal Accountability And Responsibility, Sponsored By Dentists, Physicians, Health Care Providers, Realtors, School Employees And Construction Trades Organizations Suja Lowenthal (Oppose) $52,020 05/07/2014 05/21/2014
Campos For Assembly 2014; San Franciscans To Hold Campos Accountable, Vote No On David Campos (Oppose) $6,500 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Committee For Working Families, Sponsored By The California Labor Federation, Afl-cio Connie Leyva (Support) $20,050 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Vito Imbasciani (Support) $22,505 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Edvoice Independent Expenditure Committee Steven Glazer (Support) $19,079 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Independent Expenditure Committee For Jobs And Prosperity, Sponsored By Sacramento Metropolitan Chamber Of Commerce Political Action Committee Steve Cohn (Support) $63,239 05/16/2014 05/21/2014
Independent Voter Pac Shirley Horton (Support) $5,000 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Connie Leyva (Oppose) $26,753 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Bill Dodd (Support) $17,500 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Armando Gomez (Support) $18,000 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Kashkari For Governor 2014; Californians For Tim Donnelly (Oppose) $172,266 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Kashkari For Governor 2014; Californians For Neel Kashkari (Support) $172,266 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Keeping Californians Working, A Coalition Of Dentists, Realtors, Housing Providers, Energy, Insurance Agents And Employees To Protect Working Californians Patrick Odonnell (Support) $48,223 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Keeping Californians Working, A Coalition Of Dentists, Realtors, Housing Providers, Energy, Insurance Agents And Employees To Protect Working Californians Mario De La Piedra (Support) $19,185 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Lincoln Club Of Orange County State Pac, The Linda Lindholm (Support) $27 05/13/2014 05/21/2014
Lincoln Club Of Orange County State Pac, The Tom Pollitt (Support) $27 05/13/2014 05/21/2014
Lincoln Club Of Orange County State Pac, The Cecilia Iglesias (Support) $27 05/13/2014 05/21/2014
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members, School Employees, And Public And Private Employee Associations Dan Wolk (Support) $33,113 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Parents And Teachers For Putting Students First Patrick Odonnell (Oppose) $15,815 05/15/2014 05/21/2014
Sbranti For Assembly 2014, Sponsored By The California Teachers Association And California State Council Of Service Employees; Californians For Economic Prosperity To Support Tim Steve Glazer (Oppose) $39,085 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
Sbranti For Assembly 2014, Sponsored By The California Teachers Association And California State Council Of Service Employees; Californians For Economic Prosperity To Support Tim Tim Sbranti (Support) $9,258 05/20/2014 05/21/2014
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Committee On Political Education (cope) Sponsored By: South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Bob Wieckowski (Support) $2,083 05/17/2014 05/21/2014
Spirit Of Democracy California Anna Bryson (Support) $42,666 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
Spirit Of Democracy California Jonathan Madison (Support) $10,972 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
Spirit Of Democracy California Anna Bryson (Support) $55,907 05/15/2014 05/21/2014
Spirit Of Democracy California Jay Obernolte (Support) $13,799 05/21/2014 05/21/2014
Spirit Of Democracy California Anna Bryson (Support) $10,429 05/16/2014 05/21/2014
Sycuan Band Of The Kumeyaay Nation Bonnie Dumanis (Support) $7,716 05/21/2014 05/21/2014


Outside Donor Group Comes To Neel Kashkari's Aid
David Siders @
Neel Kashkari will get a lift from a newly formed independent expenditure committee in the final days of the gubernatorial primary campaign, with Republican benefactor Charles Munger Jr. and billionaire Robert Day financing mailers supporting Kashkari and opposing rival Tim Donnelly, according to reports filed with the state Wednesday.

Dems Stake Out Negotiating Ground In Budget Fight
Ben Adler @
California Governor Jerry Brown’s latest budget proposal won’t get much love over the next couple of days. Legislative Democrats will reject several parts of Brown’s plan – and add more money to key education and social service programs.

Tim Donnelly Sees His Business Failure As Asset In Governor's Race
Tim Donnelly, a Republican candidate for California governor, points to government as the reason for his failed business.

Fresno spends $232,000 in taxpayer funds on water rate lawsuits
The City of Fresno has spent nearly a quarter million dollars in taxpayer funds in its ongoing lawsuits to block a water rate referendum from the ballot.

Schools Chief Candidate Files Ethics Complaint Against Teacher Union
Alexei Koseff @
Marshall Tuck, one of two challengers in this year's race for state superintendent of public instruction, has filed an ethics complaint against the California Teachers Association for a series of television ads supporting incumbent Tom Torlakson.

State lawmakers urging CCSF accreditor to extend deadline
Sacramento - State lawmakers introduced a pair of resolutions urging the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges to give City College of San Francisco more time to fix problems and avoid closure. The state Senate and Assembly resolutions are intended to show that lawmakers want the accrediting commission to reconsider or rescind its termination decision, which the U.S. Department of Education told The Chronicle the commission has the authority to do. "For the (commission) to refuse to allow good-cause extension - even after this clarification from the Department of Education, even after all the monumental progress City College has made along its Roadmap to Success - would be destructive, irresponsible, and could be viewed as a political act," Pelosi said in a statement this week.

Study Sees Modest Costs In Healthcare For Immigrants Here Illegally
Extending healthcare to people in the country illegally would cost the state a modest amount more but would significantly improve health while potentially saving money for taxpayers down the road, according to a study released Wednesday.

Billionaire Tom Steyer Will Use Clout And Cash To Boost Democrats, Environment, In Key Races
Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer plans to finance full-fledged political campaigns in at least seven states key to Democratic fortunes in the 2014 midterms and the 2016 presidential race, further cementing his rapid rise as one of the party’s most influential patrons.

Senate Panel Passes Fundraising Blackout, Ethics Ombudsman
Jeremy B. White @
With the California Senate beset by ethics scandals that have led to the departure of three senators and an in-house law enforcement officer, the chamber's Rules Committee moved on Wednesday to enact new fundraising restrictions and open a channel for whistleblowers.

Poll: Support For Brown's Budget
Michael Gardner @
Despite a slight slip, Gov. Jerry Brown remains popular among California voters and he enters budget negotiations with broad public support for his spending strategy primarily focused on paying down debt and building reserves, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

Neel Kashkari Likens Tim Donnelly To Jerry Brown In Latest Ad
David Siders @

Barbara Boxer To Lead Big Climate Rally At Capitol - Politics Blog
More than 40 members of Congress will hold a climate rally at the Capitol Wednesday afternoon, part of a drum roll to the Obama administration's impending rule to tighten emissions on existing coal...

Momentum building for S.F. to enact Laura's Law
Supervisor Mark Farrell's announcement this week that he plans to put the measure on the November ballot raises the stakes. Opponents of the law, which is used to compel severely mentally ill subjects into outpatient treatment, had better look long and hard at their position, because some polls have Laura's Law at over 70 percent public approval. Today, I can say we carry a net savings because we are reducing time spent in jail and locked psychiatric hospitals. 'All take their meds'"I would say in our county what the law does is protect patients who were ending up locked up in a hospital or jail," he says. [...] there's a behind-the-scenes reason. Strident patient advocacy groups warned county health departments that it would be illegal for them to use funds from the Mental Health Services Act (Proposition 63), passed by California voters in 2004. Fearful of a lawsuit"Behavioral health directors resisted Laura's Law because of the threat of a lawsuit," said Dr. John Rouse, attending physician with San Francisco General Hospital Inpatient Psychiatry and Psychiatric Emergency Services. A college sophomore, she was filling in as a receptionist at the Nevada County Department of Behavioral Health for a week, while on Christmas break. Killed 3 peopleOn Jan. 10, 2001, Scott Thorpe, a severely mentally ill man in his 30s, walked into the clinic and opened fire.

Fracking: New Monterey Shale Oil Estimate Rocks California's Expectations
Josh Richman @
The news, which cut the forecast by 96 percent, weakened hopes for an oil boom that would bring millions of jobs and billions of dollars in new tax revenue to the Golden State, home to about two-thirds of the country's shale oil reserves. But foes of hydraulic fracturing -- which uses pressurized liquid to break rock formations to mine gas or oil -- were over the moon. They argued that the new estimate by U.S. Energy Information Administration scientists makes fracking in California politically unfeasible considering the potential environmental and seismic damage.

Donnelly Uses Condom Bill To Buttress Libertarian Case
Donnelly seizes opportunity to cast himself as libertarian in Assembly vote on condom porn bill

Conservatives Draft Manifesto to Help Republicans Attract Middle-Class Voters
The 121-page document, to be unveiled Thursday, features eight essays with proposals on issues including health care, taxes and education.

Severe Drought Leads To Dying Lawns At State Capitol
The state Capitol grounds are a bit less green this year, thanks to California's severe drought.

Washington: Feinstein’s Anti-drought Bill May Face Rough Waters In House | Environment | Mcclatchy Dc
Michael Doyle @
WASHINGTON — Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s newly finished California water bill that’s designed for quick Senate approval gratifies some farmers while alienating some fishermen, tribes and environmentalists.

Funds Overseer Illegally Fired In Union Leader Probe, Suit Claims
The federal government filed a lawsuit Wednesday accusing officers who oversee benefit trust funds for Southern California cement workers of illegally ousting an employee because she cooperated with a criminal investigation of a local union leader.

Pennsylvania Governor Abandons Appeal On Same-sex Marriage Ruling
Pennsylvania will not appeal a federal court ruling that overturned the state’s ban on same-sex marriage, ending the battle over the issue in the Keystone State, Gov. Tom Corbett announced on Wednesday.

Neel Kashkari cuts into Tim Donnelly’s lead in GOP race for governor
David Siders @
Neel Kashkari has cut into Tim Donnelly’s lead among Republican candidates for governor, aided by an infusion of his own money in an increasingly divisive, inter-party race, according to a new poll.

No Money For Accurate Count Of Childcare Needs
Kimberly Beltran @
Advocates for lower and middle income families have pressed lawmakers and the governor for much of the last year to return hundreds of millions of dollars slashed from the state budget since the recession for child welfare programs.