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THE NOONER for May 2, 2014
The June 2014 NOONER Contest is now open!
Once again, The NOONER is providing an opportunity for you to prove your chops as a forecaster of California elections or, like I do with March Madness, show how little most of us really know.
Your personalized NOONER contest link is:
Once again, it is designed so you can either be anonymous or have your name in lights. Last year, we had about 500 participants and I will once again only show the top 25 scores, but you'll be able to see your score and rank. You will be able to make your picks and change your answers (via same link) through Sunday, June 1 at 5pm PDT.
It's a beautiful morning in Newport Beach, located in Allan Mansoor's mighty AD74, which I wrote about yesterday. Just south of here is another open Republican seat, which is currently held by Diane Harkey, who is the favorite to succeed Michelle Park Steel in BOE4. Steel, meanwhile, is running for Orange County Board of Supervisors in the second district, where Mansoor is also running.
AD73 is a wealthy district stretching from the canyons above central Orange County through Mission Viejo and Coto de Caza down to the water's edge in Dana Point and San Clemente. Using the ATC Partisan Index for this cycle, it is the most Republican Assembly seat at 65.3R. However, with 1 Democrat and 4 Republicans, it is likely that the race will essentially be over after June 3 with one Dem and one Rep advancing to November.
The Democrat is Wendy Gabriella, a faculty member at Irvine Valley College and an attorney.
On the Republican side, Capistrano Unified trustee Anna Bryson and Rancho Santa Margarita councilman Jesse Petrilla had the most cash on hand as of March 17, each with a little over $100,000. Bryson has loaned herself $69,600, while Petrilla seeded his campaign with $3,500. Paul Glaab is a former Laguna Niguel councilmember, loaned himself $100,000 (and contributed $22,000), and had $68,914 left as of March 17. The final Republican is Dana Point councilman Bill Brough, who had $21,584 on hand as of March 17.
Petrilla is seen to be the most red meat conservative in the race, garnering the support of Tony Strickland (and Steve Knight). Bryson inherits the legacy (and endorsement) of Marian Bergeson as a conservative who will advocate for education reform in a constructive manner, and captures the endorsement of many of the more moderate Republican voices in Orange County. Brough and Glaab are seen as hard-working local government officials and have captured endorsements of many of their colleague local electeds, if fewer big names than their competitors.
Glaab will be in plenty of mailboxes down the stretch after buying up significant slate cards early and has the cash down the stretch for candidate mail. Petrilla and Bryson will similarly have resources for plenty of mail.
I would put my bet that either Bryson or Petrilla will end up in the top two. Will the three men split the vote and give Bryson a ticket to November, or will the three more moderate candidates split the vote and advance Petrilla? In this district and in this primary, I would bet on the latter, although it's far from certain.
As an aside (and maybe advantage to Bryson), much of this district has elected three women in a row--Pat Bates, Mimi Walters, and Diane Harkey. AD04, which has had Helen Thomson, Lois Wolk, and Mariko Yamada, but now is assured a white dude, with five as candidates this cycle. AD52 had a three-peat with Nell Soto, Gloria Negrete McLeod, and Norma Torres, although it is now held by Freddie Rodriguez.
If Bryson wins, would four women in a row be a record? That's a question for you, Alex Vassar.
DEFINE "SHOPLIFT": Mary Hayashi: "I did not shoplift $2,500 worth of goods" [SFChron]
REARVIEW MIRROR: Wistful Speaker Looks Back, Defends Record [Ben Adler @ CapPubRad] - "Pérez hands the speaker's gavel to Majority Leader Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) one week from Monday – just as budget talks kick into full gear."
KINGMAKER: The Man Behind the Commissioner's Ruling - How Kevin Johnson Influenced the Donald Sterling Ruling
If you missed yesterday's National Journal article on the same topic, you missed the suggestion that Kevin Johnson could be eyeing the 2016 gubernatorial race.
ORANGE FINGERS: The Doritos origin story: Repurposed garbage from Disneyland [deathandtaxes.com]
#CAKEDAY: Happy Birthday to Amy Brown, Nick Garcia, Erika Hoffman, Amy Blumberg James (Saturday), Doug Haaland (Saturday), Jim Frazier (Sunday), Matthew Hargrove (Sunday), and Marc Johnson (Sunday)!
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Fracking Billionaires Inject Money Into Mccoy Campaign | 95 Percent Accurate
Taking a stop along the money trail…
Complete The Rainy Day Fund Deal :: Fox&hounds
Gov. Schwarzenegger managed to maneuver a rainy day proposal on the ballot but Democratic lawmakers who wanted to see a, shall we say, more pliable proposal, have managed to push it from one ballot to another. Now Governor Brown is promoting his version of a rainy day fund that he argues will work more effectively than the measure designated for the ballot.
Flip-Flop: Donnelly changes position on redevelopment
Donnelly, who voted in favor of redevelopment, now says he's opposed. Disavowing a week old statement from his campaign, "You got a gobbledygook statement that was half-assed by a messaging guy who did not understand the visceral nature of this issue and how I feel about it."
Right All But Abandons Fight After Decade Of Same-sex Marriage - Politics Blog
A decade ago this month, Massachusetts became the first U.S. state to allow same-sex couples to marry. Today, conservatives have all but abandoned the fight. In an extraordinary post on her blog Th...
Ukraine Billionaire In Presidential Vote Intends To Unite Nation
Sergei L. Loiko @ latimes.com
Billionaire Petro Poroshenko, who supported the people's revolution that ousted President Viktor Yanukovich in February, leads the field of 21 candidates in Ukraine's May 25 presidential election.
California State Toxics Director Leaving For San Francisco Job
Jon Ortiz @ sacbee.com
The oft-embattled head of California’s toxic-substance regulator announced Thursday that she will leave her state post at the end of this month for a local government job.
Paid Sick Leave, Rape Kits Among Assembly Appropriations Suspense Bills
Jeremy B. White @ blogs.sacbee.com
In an annual ritual, the Assembly Appropriations Committee on Wednesday delayed action on scores of bills, including two dealing with paid sick leave and evidence of rapes.
Wistful Speaker Looks Back, Defends Record - Capradio.org
He was sworn in as California Assembly speaker when the state faced a $60 billion budget deficit. Four years later, Los Angeles Democrat John Pérez points to a surplus and wishes he didn’t have to leave.
Assemblyman Crowdsources Constituents On 'wiki' Page To Develop Bill
Melanie Mason @ latimes.com
The state Assembly passed a measure Thursday that is less notable for what it would do — tweak the probate code — than for how it was crafted: by the public, in an online "wiki" page.
Ebay Settles No-poaching Case With California And U.S. Government
Howard Mintz @ mercurynews.com
The Justice Department and California Attorney General Kamala Harris disclosed the settlement in court papers filed Thursday. eBay has entered into a consent decree that bars it from certain hiring practices over the next five years, primarily focused on avoiding agreements with other companies to not hire from each other, according to court documents.
Dan Walters Daily: Dim prospects for undocumented immigrant health care
Alexei Koseff @ blogs.sacbee.com
Though a bill to extend California's health care exchange to undocumented immigrants passed out of policy committee this week, there is no viable plan to fund the proposal, Dan says.
California Senate Approves Bill That Would Remove ‘man And Woman’ From State Marriage Definition
Cupertino District Seeks Parcel Tax
Sharon Noguchi @ mercurynews.com
The district is seeking approval to continue assessing each parcel owned within the district $250 annually for eight years. Measure A would continue the combined assessment of two existing parcel taxes.
New California Lawyers Will Have To Promise To Be Courteous
Maura Dolan @ latimes.com
New California lawyers will soon have to swear to be courteous and dignified under a change in the legal oath approved by the California Supreme Court, it was announced Thursday.
The Riggs Report: Road Tripping With The Calif. Governor
KCRA @ kcra.com
Pity the journalists who will accompany Gov. Jerry Brown this summer on a just-announced trade trip to Mexico. The news there may be in short supply, perhaps as scarce as the number of reporters who will join the delegation in this new world of downsized bureaus and shrinking budgets.
Brazil's President Raises Welfare Payments Ahead Of Election
Vincent Bevins @ latimes.com
President Dilma Rousseff announced increases in payments for Brazil's poorest citizens in honor of the country's May 1 st celebrations as she gears up to campaign for reelection in October.
California may remove 'man and woman' state law
DON THOMPSON Associated Press @ utsandiego.com
A bill that would strike the traditional definition of marriage from California law is advancing through the Legislature after the U.S. and state supreme courts allowed same-sex unions to resume.
Glazer: Opposed To Bart Strikes, Backed By Real Estate Lobby - Politics Blog
Listeners to drive-time radio are hearing how
California Senate OKs Rules For Antibiotic Use In Farm Animals
Patrick McGreevy @ latimes.com
The state Senate on Thursday approved a measure aimed at preventing the nonmedical use of antibiotics in farm animals in California to make them grow bigger.
Congressional Dems: House GOP Catering To Right By Stalling Immigration Vote
Her remarks come as Democrats continue to put pressure on House Republicans to allow a vote on a comprehensive immigration reform package that would include a pathway to citizenship.
Teacher Dismissal Bill Gains Unanimous Support From Senate Education Committee
Theresa HarringtonContra @ mercurynews.com
The bill would expedite and prioritize cases of egregious misconduct, those involving sexual abuse, child abuse and certain drug offenses. It would fast-track all other dismissal appeals.