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THE NOONER for March 20, 2014
FIRST TURNOUT PREDICTION
It's that time to offer my first statewide turnout prediction for the June 3 primary election. My numbers suggest 33.5% of registered voters will turnout, or 5.9 million voters.
I forecast voters will be composed of 46% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 12% no party preference. The NPP (and another 3% of minor parties) will break essentially according to the Dem/Rep split, as well as cast ballots for their nominees (for the minor parties). This is based on the last several incumbent gubernatorial primaries and changes in registration. Again, this is statewide, so be cautious before inferring it to your local race.
The overall partisan make-up will be similar to the 2006 and 2010 gubernatorial primaries, although Democrats have added to their effective voter registration since then. In the head-to-head statewide matchups, this paints the picture why Republicans will find winning statewide to be a challenge this cycle, as the general election will have even more of a Democratic tilt. That said, Republicans have an even chance of blocking Democrats from two-thirds vote in one or both houses.
For the Senate, Republicans only need to hold SD12 (Cannella) and SD14 (Vidak), and pick up SD34 (Correa). In the Assembly, Republicans need to win two of these seats: AD36 (Fox-D), AD65 (Quirk-Silva-D), and AD66 (Muratsuchi), while also holding the open AD44 (Gorell-R).
Beverly Hills Mayor John Mirisch sued state and county election officials today seeking to have his name placed on the June primary ballot in the race for the open 26th Senate District seat.
Mirisch was contacted by state Republican leaders last week on the eve of last Wednesday's deadline to file for the seat because no other Republican had, The Beverly Hills Courier reported.
Mirisch, who was in Washington meeting with members of Congress about Beverly Hills' attempts to stop tunneling under Beverly Hills High School for the Metro Purple Line extension, faxed his campaign papers to the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk last Wednesday, then sent them by overnight mail and they were received the following day, according to The Courier.
THE READERS ALWAYS WRITE: Yesterday, Christine Pelosi confronted me on Twitter about my use of the phrase "colorful character" to describe gubernatorial candidat Glenn Champ. In my mind, that phrase is not a term of endearment, but rather a descriptor of a person, good or bad. I only use that phrase after listening to the radio interview with Champ, which shows that he is colorful, without offering any qualifiers about his past. Anyway, your thoughts?
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Maria Aliferis-Gjerde.
County Records Show Unpaid Tax Lien On Donnelly's Former Business
Jessica Garrison @ latimes.com
Gubernatorial candidate Tim Donnelly says San Bernardino County records are incorrect, that tax lien on closed firm has been paid.
Lamalfa, Garamendi Introduce Sites Reservoir Bill
Jeremy B. White @ blogs.sacbee.com
MAXWELL -- In a rare moment of unity for two ideological antagonists, Rep. John Garamendi, D-Walnut Grove and Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Richvale, on Wednesday unveiled legislation to build a new large-scale reservoir in Northern California.
'Anti'-Prop. B argument replaced in voter guide
In an end to a week of political weirdness and brazen, high-stakes San Francisco politics, the city elections chief on Wednesday replaced the official opposition argument in the guide for Proposition B, which had been written by one of the main organizers of the "yes" campaign. Elections Director John Arntz, citing a legal opinion from City Attorney Dennis Herrera's office, on Wednesday replaced Golinger's argument with the only one submitted by someone else, which was signed by Mission Bay neighborhood advocate Corinne Woods, construction trades official Mike Theriault and pro-growth housing advocate Tim Colen. A judge ruled Tuesday that the measure would remain on the ballot, but her ruling is likely to be appealed. Because of the change to the voter guide, Arntz also extended the deadline to submit or withdraw rebuttal and paid arguments. Avalos noted that the Coalition on Homelessness, one of the city's most vocal and powerful voices around homeless policy, wanted to see some of the funds spent on a shelter that would provide medical services.
Delays Would Mean Bigger Costs For Shoring Up Teacher Pension Fund
Chris Megerian @ latimes.com
SACRAMENTO — The longer California's leaders delay shoring up the cash-strapped teacher pension fund, the more money it will cost taxpayers in the long run, according to an analysis presented to lawmakers on Wednesday.
Citing California Drought, Garamendi And Lamalfa Push Sites Reservoir Bill
Jeremy B. White @ sacbee.com
Lawmakers and their supporters stand on the levee above the Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District canal near Maxwell during a news conference Wednesday to announce legislation to build the Sites reservoir. The bipartisan effort comes amid heightened debate about the need for more reservoirs in California.
University Of California Regents Debate Lifting Tuition Freeze
Alexei Koseff @ blogs.sacbee.com
Facing a budget shortfall of more than a hundred million dollars, the University of California Board of Regents expressed doubts at its bimonthly meeting Wednesday that it could sustain the current tuition freeze for students.
Democrats Endorse Kuehl, Solis For Supervisor, But No One For Sheriff
Abby Sewell @ latimes.com
Members of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party voted Wednesday to endorse former U.S. Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis and former state lawmaker Sheila Kuehl in the race for two open seats on the county Board of Supervisors in June¿s primary election. They also threw their support behind Jeffrey Prang, a West Hollywood City Council member and special assistant the county assessor¿s office in the race for assessor. But controversy arose over which candidate to back in an upcoming special election to fill the Los Angeles Unified School District board seat formerly held by Marguerite Poindexter LaMotte, who died in December.
Dianne Feinstein reluctant to legalize marijuana in California
Christopher Cadelago @ blogs.sacbee.com
U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein still has doubts about legalizing marijuana in California, adding her voice Wednesday to mounting debate about the wisdom of legitimizing the drug following tax-generating efforts in Colorado and Washington.
S.F.'s Prop. B handbook uproar a sly power play
Would it really be too much trouble to conduct the political business of the city in a mature, professional manner? The issue is Proposition B, a proposed ordinance that would require a public vote on any building taller than the current height limit on the waterfront. Personally, I'm against Prop B. We have a robust and thoughtful layer of city agencies that holds public hearings, debates issues and looks carefully at every project. B supporters - the side he's actually on - and also the person who wrote the official opposition statement for the voter handbook, outrage prevailed. Opponents contacted reporters to say that, as a registered political consultant, Golinger had violated the Ethics Commission code of conduct and might be subject to discipline. Except that, according to the Ethics Commission, Golinger is no longer a registered political consultant. No matter, they replied, Golinger is still in violation of Sec. 1.163.5,the city's ethics code, which forbids any person from making a false endorsement or conveying support for "a candidate or measure" when he or she is actually opposed. The real story is that Golinger only got a chance to write the voter endorsement because no elected official stepped up to oppose Prop.
Union Leaders Gird for Battle Against Republican Running for Governor of Illinois
Union leaders have begun preparing for a stark campaign battle against Bruce Rauner, the Republican candidate, who they see as hostile to public sector labor unions, pensions and pay.
UC Climate Report: About 25% Have Had Negative Experiences On Campus
Larry Gordon @ latimes.com
About a quarter of UC students, faculty and staff reported that they had experienced some exclusionary, intimidating or offensive situations on campus and 9% said those incidents had interfered with their ability to study or work, according to a survey released by the university system Wednesday.
Report: State no closer to understanding payroll system failure
Jon Ortiz @ sacbee.com
More than a year after California Controller John Chiang shut down a quarter-billion-dollar state payroll computer project that failed spectacularly, officials still haven’t looked into how the state contributed to the debacle, according to a report released Wednesday morning.
Sen. Rand Paul Demands An Investigation Into Domestic Spying
Mark Z. Barabak @ latimes.com
BERKELEY -- Sen. Rand Paul , one of the foremost critics of the government’s domestic spying program, came to the birthplace of the free-speech movement Wednesday to deliver a searing indictment of the intelligence community and call for a sweeping congressional investigation of its activities.
Immigration Activists Target Goodlatte Fundraiser
By Josh Richman Wednesday, March 19th, 2014 at 10:27 am in Immigration, U.S. House.
U.S. Education Secretary Praises L.A. Program
Teresa Watanabe @ latimes.com
Arne Duncan visits the Hollywood FamilySource Center, which provides students in high poverty areas with the support and enrichment offered to their more affluent peers.
Pelosi, Dems Doubling Down On Obamacare | Thehill
Mike Lillis @ thehill.com
House Democratic leaders are doubling down on their bet that President Obama's healthcare reform law will benefit them politically at the polls in November.
Drought May Quench Thirst For Votes
Elizabeth Held @ ocregister.com
Packed into Fresno city council chambers, an audience Wednesday whooped in support as Rep. Tom McClintock exclaimed, âThis is a natural drought compounded by a regulatory drought.â
Why More Skilled Immigration Would Be Good For American Workers, Too
In a certain, dreary light, right now seems like a terrible time to rewrite immigration law to invite tens of thousands of new skilled immigrants to move to the United States. Unemployment is still high. The recovery feels painfully slow. At last count, 10.5 million people who already live here and who've been looking for work haven't been able to find it.
Ca17: Mike Honda’s Political Director Resigns
By Josh Richman Wednesday, March 19th, 2014 at 10:33 am in 2014 primary, Mike Honda, U.S. House.
Coming Soon: Borenstein column on CalNewsroom.com vs. SF Chronicle voting history dust-up
Questions and answers on public records requests related to the San Francisco Chronicle voting history story.
Rep. Barbara Lee Joins Protest At Oakland Mcdonald's Over Employee Wages
Bay City News @ contracostatimes.com
Lee said she participated in Tuesday's action at the McDonald's at 2520 E. 12th St. in the wake of lawsuits that were filed in California and two other states last week accusing the chain and some of its franchisees of "wage theft" for allegedly not paying workers for all of the hours they work and depriving them of meal breaks, rest Lee said the Oakland protest was one of many protests held at McDonald's restaurants around the country today.
Eric Winston Elected President Of NFL Players' Union
Eric Winston was elected president of the NFL Players Assn. on Wednesday, three years after he was active for the union during the lockout.
Major Parties Take Shots In California 'swing' Congressional Districts
Jean Merl @ latimes.com
It will be months before the campaign arms of the major parties will decide which races to spend heavily on in their efforts to pick up House seats this fall. But both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, already are taking jabs at opponents in several California "swing" districts.