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THE NOONER for February 11, 2014

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DISTRICT UPDATES

  • Governor (Statewide): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • Lieutenant Governor (Statewide): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • Attorney General (Statewide): changed from Leans Democrat to Safe Democrat
  • Treasurer (Statewide): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • Controller (Statewide): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • Insurance Commissioner (Statewide): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • CD24 (Santa Barbara): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • CD33 (Coastal Los Angeles): changed from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • CD33 (Coastal Los Angeles): added attorney Elan Carr (R)
  • SD12 (Salinas-Merced): changed from Toss-up to Likely Republican
  • AD35 (Coastal Los Angeles): changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican
  • AD29 (Santa Cruz): added e-commerce manager Palmer Kain (R)
  • AD44 (Ventura): changed from Leans Republican to Toss-Up
  • AD60 (Corona): changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican
  • AD61 (Riverside): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • AD65 (Fullerton): changed from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up

 

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Good morning. For those of you in California, please blow as hard as you can to the east. Blow-blow-blow that Nor'Easter out into the Atlantic so I can be on a bird home Thursday evening. This trip has been way too long and I have a holiday weekend planned in the western region of Marc Levine's district. Meanwhile, Netflix's Friday release of House of Cards couldn't be better timed for a snowed-in weekend for the nation's capital.

RATINGS: As you may have noticed in district changes above, I have been working through the races and updating my forecast. While there are some intangibles for specific districts, the general updates are influenced by:

  • Declared candidates as filing period opens
  • Fundraising for period ending December 31 and cash on hand
  • National congressional polling suggests anti-incumbent trend
  • The drought and water issues could hurt incumbents

Further changes are likely after the filing period closes. For example, Treasurer and Controller will likely move to Safe Democrat if no candidate emerges. Also, I'm holding off on analyses as we await candidate filings. There are some big questions--does Congresswoman Gloria Negrete McLeod run for reelection in CD35, does Ray Haynes run in CD36, can Republicans find heartbeats to run in all of the constitutionals? We will have answers soon!

The buzz around this town is that Negrete McLeod will make an announcement one way or another in the next 72 hours. Democrats are boarding the bus at noon tomorrow for their policy retreat, departing early ahead of the storm. If she does decide to retire and run for San Bernardino County supervisor, it would likely set up a fight between former Congressman Joe Baca (D) and State Senator Norma Torres for the safe CD35. Baca lost to Negrete McLeod for the seat in 2012.

ELECTION DAY: San Diego elects a new mayor today, and results will start coming in here sometime after 8 p.m.

ENDORSEMENTS: Here is the full list of California Democratic Party pre-primary endorsement recommendations. As a reminder, if no candidate received at least 50%+1 of the votes over the weekend, there will be no endorsement. If a candidate received 70%, it goes on the consent calendar (which has a high bar for removal). If one candidate received 50%+1, then it goes to a caucus at the convention, at which an incumbent needs 50%+1 and a non-incumbent needs 60% of the caucus-goers, who are members of the state central committee.

SD26 (Coastal Los Angeles): Sandra Fluke picks up support of Ted Lieu's colleage state senators Hannah-Beth Jackson and Carol Liu.

REDUX: Is SD26 setting up to be a redo of the AD50 three-way fight of 2014. Betsy Butler returns as a cast member, Sandra Fluke is the high profile activist (like Torie Osborn), while Ben Allen is the understated attorney and local elected official (like Richard Bloom). Oh, but we also have physician Vito Imbasciani in the mix and is a very serious candidate. What a race!

$$$: The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office finds the state's "Big 3" revenues on track for January, which is the third largest month for state tax collections.

SHIFT HAPPENS: AB 327: New CA Energy Rate Structure "Robbing the Hood" [John Hrabe @ CalNewsroom]

Here's the bill.

THE OTHER CAPITAL: GOP Grows Confident of Senate Takeover [James Hohmann @ Politico]

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Joel Anderson and Davis USD board member Gina Deleiden.

IN MEMORIUM: Shirley Temple Black, the child actress, who lost a 1967 congressional bid as a Republican running in San Mateo County against liberal Pete McCloskey.

 

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**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • The fastest, most cost-effective way to learn the legislative process and effective advocacy. Veteran lobbyist Ray LeBov presents his introductory "Lobbying 101" and advanced "Lobbying 201" seminars March 13-14. $250 each. Essential for principals / support staff at lobbying firms, organizations that employ lobbyists, public agencies. Complete info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.
  • The Council of Community Clinics is looking for an experienced Program Manager that will lead a project to investigate the remaining uninsured residents in San Diego, Riverside and Imperial counties. More information here.
  • Housing California, a nonprofit advocacy organization, seeks a Sustainable Communities Coordinator to focus on our work around the intersection of housing, transportation, and land-use planning. Competitive salary/benefits. Apply by 2/17/2014. View job description.
  • California Council on Science and Technology is now hiring a Program Assistant for our Sacramento Office. Position will do website edits, report layout, database management, and provide program and administrative support. $36,600 minimum salary. Looking for a highly organized self-starter with strong communication skills. Must apply through UC Merced by February 14th. See job positing at: jobs.ucmerced.edu/n/staff/position.jsf?positionId=5108
  • California Grocers Association – Receptionist/AA The California Grocers Association is seeking a Receptionist/Admin Assistant for its Sacramento office. Position is first line of contact for CGA’s membership and staff, managing multiple-line phone system, providing clerical support (Microsoft Office programs), and helping with events and special projects. Salary DOE $33,000+ plus full benefits package. Complete job description and instructions HERE.

  

 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
49ers lobbyist fined $133,500 for donation violations
sfgate.com
The state's political ethics watchdog on Monday announced a $133,500 fine against a prominent Capitol lobbyist following an investigation that ensnared some of California's most powerful politicians, including Gov. Jerry Brown and his former Republican adversary Meg Whitman. The Fair Political Practices Commission said Kevin Sloat and his firm, Sloat Higgins Jensen and Associates, whose clients include the San Francisco 49ers and Pacific Gas and Electric Co., agreed to the fine as part of a settlement over 30 counts of violating the Political Reform Act by giving gifts to dozens of elected officials. About 40 politicians are listed as having received improper contributions from Sloat's events between 2009 and 2012, including Brown; Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom; Whitman; Assembly Speaker John Pérez, D-Los Angeles; state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento; Assembly Republican leader Connie Conway of Tulare; and state Senate Republican leader Bob Huff of Diamond Bar (Los Angeles County). Thomas Willis, an attorney who represents Brown, Newsom, state legislators and the Democratic Party, said in a written statement on Friday that "our clients properly paid and disclosed all known expenses."

California Senate Panel To Come Up With New Ethics, Campaign Laws
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
With the state Legislature being rocked by scandal after scandal, the leader of the Senate has assembled a group of lawmakers to come up with recommended changes in state ethics and campaign laws, officials announced Monday.

Dems ‘pre-endorse’ Some Bay Area Candidates
ibabuzz.com
By Josh Richman Monday, February 10th, 2014 at 10:56 am in 2014 primary, Assembly, Bob Wieckowski, California State Senate, Democratic Party, Democratic politics, Ellen Corbett, Eric Swalwell, Mark DeSaulnier, Mary Hayashi, Mike Honda, U.S. House.

Judge Recommends Fines In Sen. Berryhill Money-laundering Case
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
The state Fair Political Practices Commission alleged that Berryhill provided $20,000 each to the Stanislaus County Republican Central Committee and the San Joaquin County Republican Central Committee, which each gave that amount to Bill Berryhill's campaign.

Holder calls for repeal of laws restricting voting by former prisoners
Timothy M. Phelps @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- Atty. Gen. Eric H. Holder Jr. called on states Tuesday to repeal laws disenfranchising former prisoners, saying they are a vestige of efforts by the South after Reconstruction to keep African Americans out of the voting booth.

Donor Who Broke Campaign Finance Law In 2010 Faces $45,000 Penalty
David Zahniser @
latimes.com
Businessman Juan Carlos Jaramillo admitted reimbursing donors to City Council candidate Rudy Martinez in the 2011 municipal election.

Bruce Maiman: Gavin Newsom was right about gay marriage and opponents were dead wrong
Bruce Maiman @
sacbee.com
If one certainty arises from the 10 years since then-San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom defied state law and abruptly began marrying same-sex couples, it is that gay marriage opponents were wrong.

Election Kicks Off Political Shake-Up
Craig Gustafson @
utsandiego.com
The electoral chaos caused by former Mayor Bob Filner comes to a close Tuesday as San Diego voters choose one of two City Council members -- Democrat David Alvarez and Republican Kevin Faulconer -- as the city’s next mayor.

No Republican Candidates For Ag? :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
As the chief law enforcement officer of the state, the Attorney General is all about law and order, typically a strong Republican issue. Harris has been attacked in the past on some of her positions dealing with law and order, especially her record as District Attorney of San Francisco.

America's Cup cost to S.F. more than doubles
John Cote @
sfgate.com
San Francisco's red ink from the 34th America's Cup doubled Monday, with updated figures showing the city lost $11.5 million hosting the event.

State Lawmaker Presses For Audit Of Troubled DWP Billing System
Emily Alpert Reyes @
latimes.com
An L.A.-area lawmaker wants a state audit to determine how a error-ridden billing system was rolled out at the city Department of Water and Power.

Brown Gets Win On Prisons, But Political Angst Continues
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has contended for months that the state could reduce severe overcrowding in the state’s prisons through creative management, without releasing felons that might endanger the public.

Q&A: Publicly Funded Preschool 'Top Priority' For U.S. Department Of Education
Lillian Mongeau @
edsource.org
Expanding publicly funded care for children under 5 is a top priority for the U.S. Department of Education, said Libby Doggett, the deputy assistant secretary of Policy and Early Learning.

Environmentalists Dread Obama’s California Drought Trip - Politics Blog
blog.sfgate.com
Environmental groups said Monday that they are concerned that President Obama will get a one-sided view of California's drought when he visits Fresno on Friday, as Republicans mount an increasingly...

Obama administration to further delay healthcare mandate
Noam N. Levey @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON – The Obama administration will phase in a requirement that large employers provide their workers with health benefits in 2015 and 2016, offering businesses more relief from the so-called employer mandate in the president’s health law.

Group To File Complaint Against Cal/OSHA Over Staffing Levels
Marc Lifsher and Jessica Garrison @
latimes.com
The health and safety of California workers are being threatened because of an inadequate number of state workplace inspectors, a new report says.

California drought: Storm a reprieve, not a cure
Kurtis Alexander @
sfgate.com
The powerful mass of moist, tropical air from the Pacific Ocean known as a Pineapple Express delivered more rain than Northern California had seen in a year and gave some communities a needed boost to drought-stricken supplies.

Rob Reiner Backs Wendy Greuel To Succeed Waxman In Congress
Jean Merl @
latimes.com
Prominent director Rob Reiner, an activist for environmental and early childhood education causes, on Monday endorsed former Los Angeles Controller Wendy Greuel for an open congressional seat.

Obama wants to stop 'school-to-prison pipeline' for minorities
Christi Parsons @
latimes.com
President Obama plans to launch an initiative aimed at improving the lives of young black and Latino men by bringing businesses and foundations together with government agencies to change what an administration official called the "school-to-prison pipeline."

Lawmaker proposes multi-million CCSF bailout
sfgate.com
[...] state Sen. Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, introduced a bill Monday to give City College nearly as much money over the next four years as if it weren't losing thousands of students. Three lawsuits have been filed against the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges by faculty, by college supporters, and by the city itself. [...] college officials have been trying to repair the many problems in hopes of remaining accredited. In an unusual show of unity, college supporters who often disagree about how to help the school gathered in Mayor Ed Lee's office to hail the bill and to express hope that it will win the hefty two-thirds majority needed to pass in the Legislature. Lee, Leno and Tyler were joined by state community college officials and local school district representatives, as well as Robert Agrella - the state-appointed special trustee who replaced City College's elected Board of Trustees in July - and members of that sidelined board.

Google Affiliate To Restore Moffett's Hangar One
Dan Nakaso @
mercurynews.com
Planetary Ventures LLC will restore and maintain Hangar One, restore Hangars 2 and 3, upgrade the golf course, create an educational facility and help turn Moffett's airfield into "a viable asset to support government and controlled public and private flight operations," NASA announced Monday.

Prison-crowding Order Renews Talk Of Sentencing Changes
Paige St. John @
latimes.com
Talk of a commission to review whom California sends to prison helped Gov. Jerry Brown win time to deal with prison overcrowding.

Boehner to Bring Debt Ceiling to Vote Without Policy Attachments
nytimes.com
Facing a rebellion over his latest debt ceiling proposal, Speaker John A. Boehner told House Republicans that he would bring legislation to a vote Wednesday.

The Buzz: 'New Breed' GOP candidate touts run for California governor
David Siders and Christopher Cadelago @
sacbee.com
None. Yet there are other Republicans who intend to run and Glenn Champ was given a spot in the speaking order right between the party’s main acts.