Having trouble viewing this email? Click here

Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box


THE NOONER for December 13, 2013

jump to headlines

   

NOONER PAID SUBSCRIBERS can download a spreadsheet of all candidates, with district geography, analysis, and outlook.

 

HOPE, GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY: Freedom Communications plans to launch Los Angeles Register [Andrea Chang @ LAT] - "Freedom Communications Inc., the owner of the Orange County Register, is crossing the northern border once again, this time to launch the Los Angeles Register sometime next year. The media conglomerate, which earlier this year started a Long Beach edition, announced the L.A. newspaper at a staff meeting Thursday at its Santa Ana headquarters."

PRICE OF POLITICS: Successful State Senate Candidates Raise An Average Of $1 Million [Patrick McGreevy @ LAT]

SETTING THE AGENDA: Three significant initiatives were submitted to the attorney general's office yesterday for title and summary:

NO ROOM IN THE TEnT: Kicking and Screaming, Westminster City Council Grants Tet Parade to LGBT-Excluding Group [Charles Lam @ OCWeekly]

AB 1266 REFERENDUM UNLIKELY TO MAKE BALLOT: Counties have now reported random sample results for more than 40% of the signatures statewide in the referendum to overturn AB 1266, the bill relating to gender identity of public school students.

While you may not have a horse in this race, following the count is a great refresher on the process initiatives and referenda follow after the signatures have been turned in. For those who have been involved in the pins-and-needles of the count, you know how tense this time can be.

Like an initiative, a referendum that submits signatures that are tabulated by county election offices in a raw count to exceed the minimum for qualification (currently 504,760) is eligible to have the signatures validated.

The first step (following the raw count) is a random sample of signatures for validity. Counties are validate all signatures if those submitted are equal or less than 500, or 3% if more than 500 are submitted. Counties find signatures as either valid, invalid (not registered/verifiable), or duplicate. Duplicates are subject to a penalty that is statistically based to project the likelihood that other signatures submitted are also repeats.

At the random sample stage, proponents are looking to exceed 110% of the current minimum for qualification, which currently would be 504,760*110%=555,236. At that level, an initiative or referendum measure makes the ballot following the random sample.

Alternatively, if the quantity of signatures determined by the random sample exceeds 95%, currently 479,522, of that required for qualification, a second phase of signature tabulation by counties occurs—-the full count.

The referendum on AB 1266 is currently in the random sample stage, and counties have until January 8 to submit their sample results. Proponents knew it would be a close call, as a raw number of signatures for an initiative or referendum with the current requirement (set after each gubernatorial election) should be at least 750,000 to feel comfortable, far above those submitted for the AB 1266 referendum.

With 41 of California’s 58 counties reporting, 263,902 (43%) of the 614,317 raw count of signatures have been sampled, with 207,202 (78.51%) being deemed valid. Those who have been following the daily update in The Nooner would say “bingo,” the effort is on track to exceed the 95% minimum to move on to full count.

However, you have to look at which counties have reported and thus which are outstanding. Generally, urban counties are the last to submit (because they have far more signatures to sample), and validity rates are typically lower.

The remaining 17 counties (actually, 16, as no signatures were submitted in Tulare), have 350,415 signatures to sample, and include Alameda, Contra Costa, Fresno, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Santa Clara.

To develop our projected outcome, we look at recent validation efforts, specifically the initiative for health care rate regulation and the referendum on the North Fork tribal gaming compact, the former an initiative and the latter a referendum. The initiative required a full count, while the referendum qualified after a random sample.

In each county, you can average the validity rates of those two previous efforts, and multiply that by the number of raw signatures reported. For example, Los Angeles had 69.6% on health care regulation and 71.5% on the tribal referendum, for an average of 70.6%. We can thus reasonably project that of the 130,978 raw signatures in Los Angeles, 92,405 will be deemed valid by the during the AB 1266 random sample.

Carried to each remaining county, which average a 74.4% projected validity, we can forecast 254,342 signatures deemed valid in the random sample. Added to the 207,202 signatures deemed valid by the 41 counties already reporting, the effort would have 461,544 valid signatures, falling short of the 95% (479,522) minimum to proceed to a full count with only 91%.

At this point, it will be a long shot for the AB 1266 referendum to move on to a full count, and extremely unlikely to qualify for the ballot even if it does. 

Here's a chart for the geeks:

   #1541 - Healthcare#1596 - GamingAverageProjected Valid
Alameda 12,809   68.9% 72.2% 70.6%  9,037
Colusa 159   76.1% 78.3% 77.2%  123
Contra Costa 10,907   69.5% 57.9% 63.7%  6,948
El Dorado 3,788   Not Reporting 85.3% 85.3%  3,231
Fresno 18,567   72.7% 75.2% 74.0%  13,730
Los Angeles 130,978   69.6% 71.5% 70.6%  92,405
Marin 468   85.8% 83.2% 84.5%  395
Mariposa 239   75.3% 78.4% 76.9%  184
Nevada 6,087   75.9% 75.3% 75.6%  4,602
San Benito 233   77.9% Not Reporting 77.9%  182
San Bernardino 63,348   73.4% 75.6% 74.5%  47,194
San Diego 72,542   78.3% 74.1% 76.2%  55,277
San Luis Obispo 6,975   Not Reporting 72.2% 72.2%  5,036
Santa Clara 20,553   70.7% 64.0% 67.4%  13,842
Tehama 2,633   81.7% 75.7% 78.7%  2,072
Trinity 129   66.1% 63.6% 64.9%  84
Tulare 0   71.0% 73.4% 72.2%  -
 
Raw Outstanding 350,415   Projected valid 254,342
      Previously deemed valid 207,202
      Projected to be valid in sample 461,544
 
Needed to proceed to full count 479,522
Amount projected to be short -17,978

 

AB 1266 REFERENDUM UPDATE:

  • Number of counties reporting random sample: 41
  • Percent of sampled reported valid: 78.51% (207,202)
  • Percent of signatures collected needed to be valid to qualify and avoid full count: 90.39%
  • Percent of signatures collected needed to be valid to to avoid failure without full count: 78.06%
  • Random sample deadline: January 8, 2014 

#GETWELLSOON: Garry South is recovering from emergency appendectomy surgery.

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to David Greenwald and Cory Salzillo.

 

advertisement


Probolsky Research

Opinion Research on Public Policy


reserve this space | subscribe to the ad-free version for $29.99/year

  


**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • California School Boards Association-Legislative Advocate: Researches, analyzes evaluates proposed and current state & federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates to influence opinion in favor of public education. Salary based on experience. Details at: csba.org/About/Careers/LegislativeAdvocate.aspx.
  • Southern California Democratic Member of Congress seeking full-time finance director. Applicant should be self-starter, able to work independently as well as in consultation with senior staff. Responsibilities include planning fundraising events, organizing call time, pledge collection and compliance with campaign finance regulations. Must also be available to attend political events and assist local Party efforts. Finance director works out of Los Angeles-area political office. Candidate should have at least one year of campaign/government/fundraising experience. Salary commensurate with experience. Email resume to sapoliticsla@gmail.com.
  • Campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on Bay Area campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Request for Proposals -- CAL-FFL (CA-based Second Amendment / economic rights org) is seeking proposals for 2014 leg tracking/advocacy. Email president@calffl.org for full RFP and instructions.
  • The California Psychological Association seeks a Grassroots/PAC Manager. This Sacramento-based position will work with the Director of Government Affairs to devise and implement grassroots program for member association, plan legislative events, and oversee day-to-day activity of the political action committee. Strong organizational, verbal/written, and interpersonal skills needed. Competitive salary and benefits. Please send resume to Amanda Levy, CPA's Director of Government Affairs, at alevy@cpapsych.org
  • California Association of Councils of Governments. "CALCOG," a nonprofit member benefit organization for regional public agencies (COGs, RTPAs, and MPOs), seeks full-time analyst with the right blend of subject matter expertise, communication savvy, political sensitivity, and administrative skill. The successful applicant will be self-directed and willing to work (at times) independently. We have a very small staff. We also welcome independent contractors or other contract proposals that can fill our need competitively. Salary (or contract) will depend on experience, but we are a small nonprofit; plan accordingly. Excellent writing skills are a must--and a sense of humor are appreciated. EOE. Please send a resume, acceptable salary (or contract) range, and an email transmittal that briefly introduces yourself to info@calcog.org.
  • California State University, Los Angeles is seeking an Associate Vice President for Communications and Public Affairs. This position will oversee strategic communications, media relations, marketing, branding, and coordinate events and publications that benefit the entire university. Competitive salary and benefits are available for a seasoned communications professional. Please visit our website at www.calstatela.edu/univ/hrm/openings.php under "Management Positions" to learn more about the position.

  

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Mayor Launches Campaign Against Sacramento Arena Ballot Measure
Ryan Lillis and Tony Bizjak @
sacbee.com
In a scene reminiscent of other rallies throughout the three-year saga to keep the Kings in Sacramento, Mayor Kevin Johnson announced Thursday the launch of a political campaign aimed at defeating a June ballot measure that would require voter approval of subsidies to sports arenas.

Nine Californians In Congress Vote Against House Budget Deal
Richard Simon @
latimes.com
The House budget vote scrambled usual alliances, with seven California Democrats and two state Republicans voting no.

Urban Land Institute Wants To Recreate California Redevelopment
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
Having repealed the redevelopment authority of local governments two years ago, the state needs to implement an alternative method for improving communities and financing infrastructure and lower cost housing, the Urban Land Institute's California chapters say in a white paper.

Dignity Health, Nurses Agree To Meet Over Pension Plan Dispute
Mark Glover @
sacbee.com
Registered nurses and San Francisco-based Dignity Health are at odds over proposed changes in Dignity’s pension plan, and the two sides plan to talk things over in the near future.

House Budget Vote Makes Strange Bedfellows
Josh Richman @
ibabuzz.com
The House has voted 322-94 to approve the two-year budget deal hammered out by Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan.

Public Opinion Turns Against Labor Unions In California
David Siders @
sacbee.com
Public support for labor unions has plunged in California, with more voters for the first time saying they do more harm than good, according to a new Field Poll. A plurality of registered voters – 45 percent – now feel that way, compared to 40 percent who say they do more good.

Feinstein Backs Attempt To End Corn Ethanol Mandate
Chris Clarke @
kcet.org
Citing damage to the environment and higher food prices, U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein is lending her support to a bill that would end a federal mandate to increase the amount of corn ethanol in auto fuel.

California Death Penalty Process Reform Advocates File Ballot Initiative
Max Pringle @
capradio.org
A coalition of California district attorneys, victims’ rights groups and law enforcement officials have submitted a ballot initiative to the state attorney general’s office that would overhaul the death row process.

Family Connections Loom Large In California Politics
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Anointed relatives get head starts in campaigns, enjoy tremendous advantages over their potential rivals and don’t really have to prove themselves worthy for office. They may turn out to be effective politicians, or not, but the outcomes are mere happenstance.

L.A. Says Unions Missed Deadline To Challenge Pension Rollback
David Zahniser @
latimes.com
An official recommends that a city board dismiss labor's challenge to cutting pensions for newly hired employees, raising the prospect of a legal fight.

San Diego Delegation Votes For Budget Deal
Mark Walker @
utsandiego.com
All five of San Diego County’s House members - Democrats Scott Peters, Susan Davis and Juan Vargas of San Diego and Republicans Darrell Issa of Vista and Duncan Hunter of Alpine - supported the two-year budget accord approved Thursday.

Celebrities And Social Media Promote Healthcare Enrollment
Maeve Reston @
latimes.com
Celebrities and social media will help entice young adults to sign up for insurance under President Obama's healthcare law.

Passenger Levels Dropping, Sacramento Airport Looks At Budget Cuts
Tony Bizjak @
sacbee.com
A passenger makes her way toward the automated people mover in Terminal B at the Sacramento International Airport .

AM Alert
Alexei Koseff @
blogs.sacbee.com
With heated controversy in recent years surrounding public pensions, municipal bankruptcies and political campaigns, public support for labor unions has plunged in California. For the first time, more voters say these organizations do more harm than good.

Desaulnier Founds An 'EPIC' Anti-Poverty Caucus
Josh Richman @
ibabuzz.com
California’s Legislature has a new caucus focused on poverty and income inequality, an East Bay lawmaker announced Thursday. State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, will chair the Ending Poverty and Inequality in California (EPIC) Caucus.

Victim Compensation Board Overturns Rule Denying Sex Workers' Claims
Alexei Koseff @
blogs.sacbee.com
California's three-member Victim Compensation and Government Claims Board voted unanimously Thursday to overturn a regulation barring victims of sexual assault from receiving restitution if they work in the sex trade.

Budget Deal Rolls Through The House
Lisa Mascaro @
latimes.com
The budget deal draws a majority of votes from Republicans and Democrats in the House. It's expected to pass the Senate as well.

Sacramento State To Go Tobacco-free In 2015
Diana Lambert @
sacbee.com
Sacramento State will be a tobacco-free campus beginning in fall 2015, university officials announced Thursday afternoon.

Rizzo To Plead Guilty To Tax Charges
Jeff Gottlieb @
latimes.com
The former Bell city manager, who claimed more than $770,000 in fraudulent losses, agrees to cooperate with federal authorities.

18,000 San Diegans Stand To Lose Federal Unemployment Benefits By Year's End
Susan Murphy @
kpbs.org
Federal extended unemployment benefits are set to expire at the end of the month for more than 18,000 people in San Diego who have been jobless for six months or more, unless Congress continues the program into 2014.