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THE NOONER for October 18, 2013
Happy Friday! Well, that is as long as you don't live in the Bay Area and rely on BART, as workers went on strike at midnight. Fortunately, my Bay Area public transit trip only takes me as far as Martinez today.
IRONY: Contra Costa Times A1: "BART unions strike"; "Back in Business: Federal government up and running after shutdown"
CD31: A Nooner reader asked yesterday about the poll that Joe Baca has been circulating to argue that he is heads and shoulders above his fellow Democrats in the race to join Gary Miller in a top two runoff. The poll conducted by ePolitical USA claims querying 2,943 "high propensity" voters about their candidate preference. Although the poll was conducted in September, it was neither reported as an expenditure or debt/obligation in the FEC filing for the period ending September 30, so we don't know how much the campaign paid for it.
The timing of the poll coincided with a very disappointing fundraising number for Baca for the second quarter.
The best evidence that the poll is a push poll and can't be used to determine candidate preferences is the quantity of voters contacted. No legitimate poll would call 2,943 "high propensity" voters in a congressional district (roughly around 5% , as you're essentially tripling the number of respondents necessary and just wasting money. Statewide polls are considered reliable in samples of 800-1200 voters, and the much focused on Public Policy Polling of 24 congressional races across the country were samples of 600-700 voters. Further, when ePolitical claims a +/-2% margin of error, that's on the answers by respondents, and doesn't take into account other factors such as question order/bias and sample weighting.
Finally, when only a two-page memo is released and demographics and question order is not, don't believe the results as reflective of candidate preference. ePolitical can restore its reputation by releasing the entire poll, with questions and crosstabs.
[Conflict note: I gave $100 to my friend Pete Aguilar, but write the above paragraphs equally in consideration of Eloise Gomez Reyes and Danny Tillman. I have not spoken to any campaign about this poll.]
AURAL PLEASURE MAKER: The University of California continues its sponsorship of Slate's Political Gabfest, targetting Slate's national audience.
INTROSPECTION: Ridding the GOP of the Tea Party [Tony Quinn @ Fox and Hounds] - "It is time for California Republicans to confront the real enemies who are dragging them from defeat to defeat, and this means dealing with the Tea Party extremists in their own ranks. Until the state GOP faces up to this it cannot be rebuilt, and 2014 is exactly the time to start."
Quinn skewers Tom McClintock in the article . . .
#WEEKENDCAKEDAY: Light those candles for Assemblymember Ian Calderon, Assemblymember Mike Gatto (Saturday), Attorney General Kamala Harris (Sunday), Board of Equalization member Betty Yee (Saturday), and Assembly staffer Maximillian Mikalonis (Sunday)!
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Higher Price Pays Way Into Some College Classes
Nanette Asimov @ sfgate.com
It's either a great way to get more students through college faster - or it's the worst idea to hit students' pocketbooks since California started charging tuition.
Tim Donnelly Cites Gun Incident As Evidence Of Political Skill
David Siders @ blogs.sacbee.com
It would be difficult for Assemblyman Tim Donnelly to point to his fundraising, which is anemic, or to his experience, which is limited, to inspire confidence in his campaign for governor.
Jerry Brown Taps Pension-reform Proponent For High-level Post
Jon Ortiz @ sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has named a government official who defended pension rollbacks for current employees to be deputy secretary at the new California Government Operations Agency.
Seven California Republicans Vote No To Reopen Government, Avoid Default
Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Carolyn Lochhead and Carla Marinucci, @ blog.sfgate.com
Seven California Republicans vote no to reopen government, avoid default
Marijuana Legalization In California: Gavin Newsom To Head Aclu Panel
Josh Richman @ mercurynews.com
"Enough's enough. I can't sit back and support the status quo any longer," Newsom said in a telephone interview Thursday, citing the high prison and police costs associated with marijuana enforcement that disproportionately affects minority communities. "I don't want to be the guy giving the speeches after I'm gone about what we should've and could've done."
Lt. Gov. Newsom To Lead Pot Legalization Panel
LISA LEFF @ sacbee.com
The push to legalize marijuana in California received a boost Thursday as the state's Democratic lieutenant governor announced that he was leading a blue ribbon panel that plans to study the issue with the goal of producing a legalization initiative for the November 2016 ballot.
A Pension Initiative Could Affect Other Election Issues :: Fox&hounds
Warning: Mayor conjecturing ahead with inevitable twists and turns on the political trail that could disrupt this current view.
BART workers go on strike
John Wildermuth, Michael Cabanatuan and Jill Tucker @ sfgate.com
After a marathon bargaining session that lasted nearly 30 hours, Roxanne Sanchez, president of Service Employees International Union Local 1021, walked out of the Oakland negotiations late Thursday afternoon and said the talks were over and that union workers would walk off the job at 12:01 a.m. Friday.
Obama's selection for new Homeland Security leader suggests priority shift
Alicia A. Caldwell @ mercurynews.com
President Barack Obama's selection of a former top Pentagon lawyer to head the Homeland Security Department suggests the agency will be stepping back from its preoccupation with immigration to focus more on protecting the nation from attack. Jeh C. Johnson, if confirmed by the Senate, would replace Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, who left the DHS last month to become president of the University of California system. Obama was expected to announce Johnson's nomination Friday.
Tim Donnelly’s ‘path To Victory’ Ignores Obstacles
By Josh Richman Thursday, October 17th, 2013 at 12:38 pm in 2014 primary, Abel Maldonado, Jerry Brown, Tim Donnelly.
Marijuana legalization: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom to head ACLU panel
Josh Richman @ mercurynews.com
California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom will head an American Civil Liberties Union panel probing how best to legalize, regulate and tax marijuana in California.
$250-million Runway At LAX Falling Apart, Lawsuit Contends
Dan Weikel @ latimes.com
The city is suing companies who rebuilt a $250-million runway at LAX six years ago, saying the work was shoddy.
California Bullet Train A Big Test Of Integrity
Dan Walters @ sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown demonstrated this year that he’s willing to skate very close to the hazy line that separates devotion to duty from political obstreperousness, virtually daring federal judges to hold him in contempt for stalling on orders to reduce prison crowding.
Republicans Still Recovering From Anti-immigrant Measures In California
Christopher Cadelago @ blogs.sacbee.com
Nearly two decades after its controversial passage, Gov. Pete Wilson's Proposition 187 continues to haunt the Republican Party in California and across the U.S.
National Briefing | West: California: Legal Marijuana Studied
The American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom said that he would lead a panel on how the state can tax and regulate legal marijuana sales.
Government Shutdown Votes Spark Payback, Anger And Fundraising
Cathleen Decker @ latimes.com
Some Republicans signal plans to challenge the party's senators
Report: GOP's Future Hangs On Immigration Reform
Josh Richman @ ibabuzz.com
The Republican Party could lose a lot of House seats in 2014 and 2016 â including a few in California â as well as the next presidential election if it stands in the way of comprehensive immigration reform, according to a political research firmâs new report.
Conservative Republicans Aren’t Done Fighting The New Health-care Law
Fresh off an unsuccessful attempt to block the president’s sweeping Affordable Care Act, several conservative Republicans announced Thursday that they have decided on their next political target: the Affordable Care Act.
Californians Rejoice As Federal Government Reopens, But Some Damage Is Already Done
Josh Richman, Paul Rogers, David DeBolt, Ashly McClone and Jeremy Thomas @ mercurynews.com
At most federal agencies, phones were answered, websites went live again and park entrances were unlocked for the first time since Sept. 30, after a literally 11th-hour vote ended the shutdown and averted a debt-default crisis.
Richmond's activist-mayor blurs line over Chevron
[...] her latest campaign, to hold the company accountable for environmental damage in Ecuador, seems a bit beyond her job description. McLaughlin, a Green Party member, visited Ecuador last month and took part in a campaign to publicize a federal trial now under way in U.S. District Court. The case stems from claims that oil production operations in Ecuador damaged the nation's rain forest, contaminated ground water and caused health problems among indigenous citizens. In McLaughlin's worldview, she is waging war against what she called "international corporate domination" - and believes there's an inextricable link between the company's dealings with Ecuador and its dealings with the city of Richmond on everything from tax rates to health and safety precautions at the refinery. City officials and Chevron bickered for years over what constitutes a fair tax rate for both Richmond residents and the oil company. If Richmond truly wants to end its dependent relationship on the dirty money gleaned from oil production, then it's up to the city's elected officials to find alternative sources of revenue, be it property or sale taxes or the attraction of new business enterprises to the city.
San Bernardino Councilman Pleads Guilty, Resigns, Exits Mayor Race
Rick Rojas @ latimes.com
San Bernardino Councilman and mayoral candidate Chas Kelley pleaded guilty to a perjury charge and resigned from office.
The Buzz: Tim Donnelly aide cites gun incident as evidence of political skill
Tim Donnelly’s “path to victory” memorandum includes a favorable reading of an incident involving the Assembly member, his carry-on and a gun.
L.A. Sheriff Baca Held Liable For $100,000 In Inmate Abuse Case
Abby Sewell and Robert Faturechi @ latimes.com
A federal jury has found Los Angeles County Sheriff Lee Baca personally liable in a case involving abuse of an inmate in the Men's Central Jail, meaning the sheriff could be required to pay $100,000 out of pocket.
Shutdown Over, Obama Surveys Damage And Blames GOP - Sfgate
ANDREW TAYLOR, Associated Press @ sfgate.com