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THE NOONER for October 9, 2013
DONNELLY: I've written before that I expected Tim Donnelly to run for governor in 2013, but not in 2014, when he would leave the race and easily win reelection to AD33. This would set him up for a primary challenge to Paul Cook in CD08 in 2016. However, following last weekend's California Republican Convention, I think he will stay in, even while it means giving up his Assembly seat.
Donnelly has zero chance of becoming governor next year unless a strain of The Walking Dead malady affecting only Democrats breaks out. Donnelly is smart and knows that. This fight is not over a gubernatorial race that will easily be won by Jerry Brown, but rather the direction of the Republican Party.
Conservative activists despise Abel Maldonado, and there is nothing like being in politics when the most passionate people from your ideological arena are rallying behind you. It's a lot more exciting than raising a microphone to speak on nearly every bill. As Maldonado 2.0 was unveiled over the weekend as a pro-choice, pro-immigrant, pro-gay Republican, the fervor behind Donnelly only grew.
Donnelly yesterday announced bringing experienced spokesperson Jennifer Kerns on board.
Donnelly has a chance to place in the top two, albeit small given Maldo's name recognition (he got 43.6% agains Sam Aanestad's 31% in the 2010 LtGov primary), knocking out Maldonado and giving him a greater platform to evangelize his libertarian ideas. And, aside from fear in Maldonado's camp, this is scary to those seeking to rebuild the California Republican Party as a contender with more moderate, diverse faces than in the last two decades.
While giving up a safe seat is something most mid-career politicians rarely do, a grassroots campaign for governor is the perfect venue for building a fundraising network for the 2016 run in CD08. Further, because of the Democratic supermajority, there just isn't much fundraising ability for Donnelly in Sacramento. However, the biggest question will be where Donnelly gets his income between in 2015-2016 if he pursues this path. Before coming to the Legislature, he was primarily an anti-illegal immigration activist and has few disclosed resources.
It can be easy to overstate the strength of the grassroots, ideological voters on both sides. Steve Poizner sought the base support in 2010 against Meg Whitman, but drew only 26.7% to her 64.4%. Party conventions where one candidate is booed and the other is wooed are not indicative of the results of statewide elections.
The June election will be much more about the future of the California Republican Party--and the interest of non-ideological interest groups in that effort--than it will be about who California's next governor will be.
It will likely be a more exciting election for observers than the one in November.
Well, I wrote the above last night, and now see a new Fox and Hounds article by David Salaverry summing up the fear of the "rebuilders":
The CAGOP will survive Donnelly's radical insurgency for governor, but may be badly damaged by it. CA Democrats will attempt to deliver a death blow, pointing gleefully to Donnelly. The well may be poisoned for generations of CA Latinos, gays and independent moderates. A One Party Liberal State could emerge from 2014 an invincible hegemon in part because of Donnelly's run.
This should be of concern to all Republicans.
CH-CH-CHANGES: Landry's Inc has taken down the McCormick and Schmick's sign on the corner of 11th and J and will be erecting a Claim Jumper sign, opening in December. Oh, and they had so many choices...
***The Leadership California Institute hosts "Candidate Forum 2014" on October 16 in Sacramento! The most talked about candidates for the 2014 cycle will be joined by influential leaders like Former Senate Minority Leader Jim Brulte, Former Assembly Member Bev Hansen, and PPIC President Mark Baldassare for a one-day bipartisan forum. Join the growing list of sponsors today! For more information, contact Nicki Arnold: (916)529-4722 or email@example.com.
#CAKEDAY: Light the candles for Assemblymember Eric Linder!
SIGNED WATER BILLS
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Sand castle contest caught in political net
The federal government shutdown has washed away - at least for now - a long-standing sand castle contest that raises money for arts programs at public schools. The contest was to take place Saturday at San Francisco's Ocean Beach, with teams from 26 public elementary schools collaborating with adults from design-related firms to build fantastical structures of water and sand. The beach is part of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, which has furloughed most of its employees and revoked all event permits until there's a resolution of the standoff in Washington, D.C., over funding for the 2013-14 federal budget. The money - donations from the firms that register to take part in the event - is used to hire artists to work with students at elementary schools in Alameda, San Francisco and San Mateo counties. The GOP-led House has since voted to fund specific government efforts, including the National Park Service, but President Obama and the Democratic-led Senate are opposed to piecemeal relief for certain high-visibility programs.
University of California union to ask members to authorize strike
Jon Ortiz @ blogs.sacbee.com
The bare-knuckles contract brawl between the University of California and one of its larger unions has entered the next round, with an announcement Tuesday that AFSCME Local 3299 is planning to take a strike vote at the end of this month.
Mirkarimi re-election a question of who supports him
The most obvious political question mark is Mirkarimi himself, whom colleagues and observers say privately is a man with few friends or allies at City Hall - and whose once bright political future may be dim. Domestic violence advocates say there's a big reason "why not" and that they're privately discussing backing potential challengers including Assistant Sheriff Paul Miyamoto who ran against Mirkarimi two years ago, or a female candidate. Beverly Upton, executive director of the San Francisco Domestic Violence Consortium, said it's the women in the sheriff's office she works most closely with anyway - including Undersheriff Ellen Brin and Chief Deputy Sheriff Kathy Gorwood. Political consultant Nicole Derse, who ran Mirkarimi's supervisorial campaign in 2004 and has voted for him for supervisor and sheriff, said she doesn't see him winning another term - and he certainly won't get her vote again. A raw dealBut Tami Bryant, a longtime political supporter and friend of Mirkarimi, said she knows plenty of San Francisco voters who think Mirkarimi got a raw deal by the criminal justice system and in the press. Former Mayor Art Agnos, also a friend of the sheriff, said San Francisco voters are forgiving and pointed to their re-election of Mayor Gavin Newsom despite his affair with the wife of his campaign manager and admitted alcohol problem.
Gov. Brown Signs Controversial Water Bills, Including Maywood Plan
Patrick McGreevy @ latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed a flood of bills aimed at improving water quality and reliability in California, including a controversial measure introduced in the middle of a dispute between water agencies in Los Angeles County.
Alameda County Will Hire More Workers To Handle The Influx Of Calls For The New Health Care Law
The county government has set up a call center in downtown Oakland to answer questions by phone about the health coverage changes coming Jan. 1 because of the federal Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
California Governor Signs Bills To Tackle State's Water Crisis
Sharon Bernstein @ reuters.com
California Governor Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed more than a dozen bills aimed at improving access to water in the state, where drought is common and tension is high over the competing needs of residents, agriculture and the environment.
Open enrollment for CalPERS health insurance closes Friday
A reminder to all the state government, local government and school district employees who receive medical insurance through CalPERS: You have until Friday to choose your health coverage for 2014.
Political Targets, Poisoned Arrows
Timm Herdt @ vcstar.com
Freshman Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley is exactly the kind of person the House Republican majority had in mind last week when it put up for votes seven separate bills to exempt popular programs from the federal government shutdown.
Lawmakers arrested as thousands rally for immigration legislation
Sarah Sexton @ sacbee.com
Several members of Congress were among those arrested in a mass act of civil disobedience at the U.S. Capitol as thousands rallied for changes to immigration law.
First lady cancels Bay Area fundraisers
First lady cancels Bay Area fundraisers Democratic insiders said there was queasiness at the prospect of the first lady raising millions from wealthy donors and campaigning for Democratic causes while thousands of federal employees are furloughed because of the partial government shutdown. Because the events were political fundraisers and not public appearances, most of Obama's travel expenses would have been paid for by the Democratic Party.
California Weighing Cost Of Running Federal Programs During Shutdown
Melanie Mason and Chris Megerian @ latimes.com
State officials must decide whether to fund federal social services like food stamps and the WIC program during the government shutdown, but it's unclear if California has the budget to do so.
California Labor Union Feud Lands On Browns Desk
Dan Walters @ sacbee.com
Donnelly Hires Seasoned Campaign Spokeswoman
Josh Richman @ ibabuzz.com
Assemblyman Tim Donnelly today announced the addition of a familiar face to his gubernatorial campaign â veteran GOP press secretary Jennifer Kerns.
Curtis Tate @ blogs.sacbee.com
Sen. Barbara Boxer said Tuesday that the week-long federal government shutdown has delayed a vote in the House of Representatives on legislation that would help finish improvements to Sacramento's levee system.
California Water Officials To Inspect Marijuana Farms
Matt Weiser @ sacbee.com
Water officials will be able to inspect illegal marijuana gardens, such as this plot of weed in the Sierra foothills, after an agreement was reached reversing an earlier ban on such inspections meant to protect employees.
Nra Threatens Lawsuits Over California Gun Bills
Patrick McGreevy @ latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- Gov. Jerry Brown has not yet acted on a bill to outlaw the sale of semiautomatic rifles with detachable magazines in California, but the National Rifle Assn. warned Tuesday that it will file a lawsuit challenging it in court if the governor signs the measure.
Poll Shows Ca GOP Congressmen In For A Re-elect Fight :: Fox&hounds
In California, the firm tested three candidates before and after a series of questions pinning the government shutdown blame on the Republican:
Jerry Brown signs law changing California's athlete compensation
Jeremy B. White @ blogs.sacbee.com
Professional athletes will have to prove they played a substantial chunk of their career in California to claim disability benefits under a law Gov.
Gov. Brown Signs One Disclosure Bill, Vetoes Another
Patrick McGreevy @ latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed legislation to give Californians a better picture of the financial interests of their public officials but balked at a bill that would require a study of replacing a database on campaign contributions.
Ap California State News Wire | Union Democrat | Sonora News, Sports, & Weather, Angels Camp, Twain Harte, Jamestown - Ap Nation / World
>Union Democrat | Sonora News, Sports, & Weather, Angels Camp, Twain Harte, Jamestown
Gov. Brown's History With Bugs Cited By Veto Critics
Patrick McGreevy @ latimes.com
Critics blasted Gov. Jerry Brown's veto of AB 571, which would have provided $5 million annually to fight Asian Citrus Psyllids.