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THE NOONER for October 7, 2013
What should we make of that poll being used to argue Dems can take back the House? Let's talk about it after the jump . . .
***The Leadership California Institute hosts "Candidate Forum 2014" on October 16 in Sacramento! The most talked about candidates for the 2014 cycle will be joined by influential leaders like Former Senate Minority Leader Jim Brulte, Former Assembly Member Bev Hansen, and PPIC President Mark Baldassare for a one-day bipartisan forum. Join the growing list of sponsors today! For more information, contact Nicki Arnold: (916)529-4722 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
POLL POSITION: If you were near the Interwebs this weekend, you undoubtedly saw that left-leaning Public Policy Polling firm conducted a survey for MoveOn.org that found 17 vulnerable Republicans--enough for Democrats to take back the House in 2014--and four more that might be vulnerable if the voters were deciding next November on the basis of the shutdown. In each of 24 races (600-700 "voters per district"), the incumbent Republican was tested against a generic ballot Democrat. The poll was telephonic.
In California, the firm tested three candidates before and after a series of questions pinning the government shutdown blame on the Republican:
Overall, the polling methodology looks okay, to the extent you buy-in to automated telephonic polling. Obviously, we just have to get used to the fact that the era of finding adequate samples of live callers is quickly passing. Most important is finding a sufficient sample and then weighting it for a fair projection of likely voter turnout in the subject election. For at least the three California races above, PPP's turnout projections seem in the ballpark, projecting an older, whiter electorate than we saw in 2012. That said, it doesn't mean that Nancy Pelosi can assume a net +2 in California. You still have the vulnerable Democrats (particularly CD36 and CD52), and Jeff Denham will be hard to beat.
The one number that looks significant is CD31, which I already have as Leans Democrat. Gary Miller's voting past is much more Orange County than this part of Inland Empire, and he wouldn't have won in 2012 had Dems had someone on the ballot. If Democrats can escape the primary without too much damage and show some unification behind the successful Dem, the district becomes Likely Democrat.
Valadao is holding strong at 50% both before and after arguments, while Denham's number justified keeping the race a "Toss-up."
Democrats are very likely to pick up seats in 2014, but to think that they can run the table on all offensive seats while keeping every defensive one is about as likely as the Kings to make it to the Western Conference Finals. Nevertheless, thank you to MoveOn.org for investing in the polling and releasing it.
[Side note on polling methodology: I am working on a review of California ballot measure polling results in 2012, and it seems that the strictly online "ballot format" poll conducted for the California Business Roundtable by Pepperdine and M4 Strategies may have been the most accurate, even with wild swings that were mocked by many. Of course, it was all about weighting the likely electorate, the most difficult part of polling.]
REFUSAL: Mark Takano announced a bit too late for Friday's Nooner that he will also refuse pay during the shutdown.
Also, note that while the House voted Saturday to provide backpay to furloughed federal employees after the shutdown ends, this does not help the thousands of contractors (which far exceed federal employees in places like Yosemite), nor the small business owners that rely on a steady stream of tourist business and the associated economic multipliers.
***It's not too late to sign up for Capitol Network's 25th Annual Golf Tournament on October 14 at El Macero Country Club. Sponsors and individual golfers are welcome. Proceeds benefit women’s and children’s organizations. Contact Jenny Devine-Smith at email@example.com, (916) 379-8995 or visit www.capitol-network.org/events_detail.php?events_id=26.
The governor signed a batch of immigration bills on Saturday (included below), and tomorrow night there is a screening of "Documented" with an appearance by journalist/activist Jose Antonio Vargas. The event is 6:00pm-9:30pm at the Guild Theatre, 2828 35th Street, Sacramento. Complimentary tickets are available here.
#CONGRATS! . . . to Tamara Keith, who moves down Pennsylvania Avenue to be a NPR White House Correspondent, effective January.
#CAKEDAY: Light those candles for the California gubernatorial recalls BIG 1-0! It was ten years ago today when you had the chance to cast your vote for a porn star, a now-departed child star, a "No, but Yes on Me" lieutenant governor, and a bodybuilder. Joe Mathews pens "My 5 Recall Memories."
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Vote On S.F. Retiree Health Care Shortfall Solution
Marisa Lagos @ sfgate.com
San Francisco voters will be asked next month to approve a measure that seeks to eliminate a projected $4.4 billion shortfall in the city's retiree health care fund over the coming decades, all without increasing employee or taxpayer contributions.
Voter ID Measure Softened, Embraced By California GOP
David Siders @ blogs.sacbee.com
The California Republican Party embraced a tea-party backed resolution urging adoption of a voter identification law Sunday, after the measure was softened considerably to remove any reference to photo identification.
New Focus On Showing Risk As CalPERS Rates Go Up
Ed Mendel @ calpensions.com
A new CalPERS projection shows employer rates for the largest group of state workers increasing 27 percent over the next six years -- but the focus is on the risk of how much things can change.
Study Finds Downsides For Off-year Local Elections
Martha Groves @ latimes.com
The Greenlining Institute says off-year local elections seem to attract disproportionately few voters from minority groups.
California Republican Party Faces Potential Fallout From Government Shutdown
David Siders @ sacbee.com
Economist Arthur Laffer, known as "the father of supply-side economics" and who was an economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan, speaks to an executive committee meeting of the California Republican Party at their convention in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, Oct. 4, 2013.
Vietnamese American Politician Van Tran Plots A Comeback
Anh Do @ latimes.com
Van Tran, a prominent Vietnamese American and former state assemblyman, plans a political comeback with a run for the Board of Equalization.
Incumbents win re-election to CalPERS board
Jon Ortiz @ blogs.sacbee.com
J.J. Jelincic and Michael Bilbrey have again won terms on the board of California's largest government retirement system, according to an uncertified tally of votes by CalPERS.
Ed Lee is father of the bride this week
the way, for security reasons, wedding guests have been told that wrapped gifts are not allowed at City Hall. @ sfgate.com
Brianna Lee and her fiance, Mark Chen, both of New York, will tie the knot in a ceremony under the Rotunda - having plunked down $4,500 for one of City Hall's high-end wedding packages after their engagement last year. Despite the public locale, City Hall insiders tell us this is "not a political Who's Who wedding," and very few elected officials or even mayoral staffers were invited. Oakland's political world was rocked by that Chamber of Commerce poll finding Mayor Jean Quan's favorability ratings even lower than those of her predecessor, Ron Dellums. Quan was already facing challenges next year from two candidates - Joe Tuman, a professor of political communications at San Francisco State, and health care executive and Port Commissioner Bryan Parker. Incoming University of California President Janet Napolitano isn't wasting time getting to know the squeaky wheels in the system. The workers have threatened to strike over the university's decision to impose its "final offer" contract.
Campus Centers Help Veterans Jump-start Their College Education
Carla Rivera @ latimes.com
Thousands of military veterans are returning to California colleges this fall, eager to make use of federal education benefits.
After Trauma And Dropping Out, A Diploma And A Job From Oakland Charter School
Louis Freedberg @ edsource.org
While there are many adult education centers and community college programs in California where people who never completed high school can go to earn a high school equivalency degree, known as a GED, Civicorps Academy is the only public high school in the state that requires students to earn a diploma along with job training skills.
Leaders try to forbid transit workers from striking
John Wildermuth @ sfgate.com
Last month, Orinda Councilman Steve Glazer, a former aide to Brown, was at BART stations, handing out flyers and trying to drum up support for his online petition calling for a statewide ban on strikes by public transit workers.
Last week for Gov. Jerry Brown to sign or veto bills
Jeremy B. White @ blogs.sacbee.com
we mean the 2013 legislative process: Lawmakers adjourned for recess back in mid-September, shifting the focus to Gov. Jerry Brown and his all-important pen. This coming Sunday, Oct. 13, marks the final day for the governor to decide which bills become law and which ones expire via veto.
California Tea Party Supporters Revel In Role In Government Shutdown
Cathleen Decker @ latimes.com
Tea party members flex muscles at California Republican Party convention
Mormon leader defends stance vs. same-sex marriage
A top Mormon leader says more states and nations may legalize same-sex marriage in the future, but human laws cannot "make moral what God has declared immoral."
Constitutional Crisis: We The People Have Had It With The Shutdown
"I'm very angry," said Peggy Guardanapo, chewing moodily on a rasher of bacon at a diner near her San Jose home. "There should be no shutting of government. It's ridiculous. I do believe it's time it should be turned over to we, the real people."
Back By Popular Demand: The Chronnie Awards, Ca GOP “get Your Hands Off Our Guns” Edition
Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Carolyn Lochhead and Carla Marinucci, @ blog.sfgate.com
Back by popular demand: The Chronnie Awards, CA GOP “Get Your Hands Off Our Guns” edition
Obama to Boehner: 'prove' you don't have the votes
Jennifer Epstein @ politico.com
The president calls on the House to hold a vote on a clean government funding bill.
TV ad in Wyoming Senate race hits Liz Cheney on gay marriage
Mark Z. Barabak @ latimes.com
In the political year 2014, the marquee show will be the battle for control of Congress, with Democrats and Republicans each waging tough fights to seize back control of the House and Senate, respectively.
Financial Issues Cost Foster Care Agency Its L.A. County Contract
Garrett Therolf @ latimes.com
Wings of Refuge lost its L.A. County contract not because of lapses in care, but because it mismanaged millions in taxpayer dollars.
Antonio Villaraigosa's newest gig
Evan Halper @ latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is taking on another job, and this time it is not at an embattled multilevel marketing company.
Oil Price Gaming Allegations May Get Another Look
Marc Lifsher @ latimes.com
California legislators pass a bill that would direct the state Energy Commission to ferret out any fuel price manipulation.
Political Blotter: What will Brown do about gun bills?
Josh Richman @ mercurynews.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has yet to sign or veto any of the major gun-related bills sent to him in the final days of the Legislature's session, so advocates on both sides are pressuring him to see things their way.