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THE NOONER for October 7, 2013

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DISTRICT UPDATES

  • AD15 (Berkeley): added San Pablo councilmember Rich Kinney (R)

NOONER SUBSCRIBERS can download a spreadsheet of all candidates,
with district geography, analysis, and outlook.

 

What should we make of that poll being used to argue Dems can take back the House? Let's talk about it after the jump . . .

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***The Leadership California Institute hosts "Candidate Forum 2014" on October 16 in Sacramento! The most talked about candidates for the 2014 cycle will be joined by influential leaders like Former Senate Minority Leader Jim Brulte, Former Assembly Member Bev Hansen, and PPIC President Mark Baldassare for a one-day bipartisan forum. Join the growing list of sponsors today! For more information, contact Nicki Arnold: (916)529-4722 or nicki@grassrootslab.com.

 

POLL POSITION: If you were near the Interwebs this weekend, you undoubtedly saw that left-leaning Public Policy Polling firm conducted a survey for MoveOn.org that found 17 vulnerable Republicans--enough for Democrats to take back the House in 2014--and four more that might be vulnerable if the voters were deciding next November on the basis of the shutdown. In each of 24 races (600-700 "voters per district"), the incumbent Republican was tested against a generic ballot Democrat. The poll was telephonic.

In California, the firm tested three candidates before and after a series of questions pinning the government shutdown blame on the Republican:

  • CD10: Jeff Denham 44% v. Generic Democrat 44%  | after questions: Jeff Denham 44% v. Generic Democrat 48% [results]
  • CD21: David Valadao 50% v. Generic Democrat 39% | after questions: David Valadao 50% v. Generic Democrat 40% [results]
  • CD31: Gary Miller 39% v. Generic Democrat 51% | after questions: Gary Miller 39% v. Generic Democrat 48% [results]

Overall, the polling methodology looks okay, to the extent you buy-in to automated telephonic polling. Obviously, we just have to get used to the fact that the era of finding adequate samples of live callers is quickly passing. Most important is finding a sufficient sample and then weighting it for a fair projection of likely voter turnout in the subject election. For at least the three California races above, PPP's turnout projections seem in the ballpark, projecting an older, whiter electorate than we saw in 2012. That said, it doesn't mean that Nancy Pelosi can assume a net +2 in California. You still have the vulnerable Democrats (particularly CD36 and CD52), and Jeff Denham will be hard to beat. 

The one number that looks significant is CD31, which I already have as Leans Democrat. Gary Miller's voting past is much more Orange County than this part of Inland Empire, and he wouldn't have won in 2012 had Dems had someone on the ballot. If Democrats can escape the primary without too much damage and show some unification behind the successful Dem, the district becomes Likely Democrat.

Valadao is holding strong at 50% both before and after arguments, while Denham's number justified keeping the race a "Toss-up."

Democrats are very likely to pick up seats in 2014, but to think that they can run the table on all offensive seats while keeping every defensive one is about as likely as the Kings to make it to the Western Conference Finals. Nevertheless, thank you to MoveOn.org for investing in the polling and releasing it.

[Side note on polling methodology: I am working on a review of California ballot measure polling results in 2012, and it seems that the strictly online "ballot format" poll conducted for the California Business Roundtable by Pepperdine and M4 Strategies may have been the most accurate, even with wild swings that were mocked by many. Of course, it was all about weighting the likely electorate, the most difficult part of polling.] 

REFUSAL: Mark Takano announced a bit too late for Friday's Nooner that he will also refuse pay during the shutdown.

Also, note that while the House voted Saturday to provide backpay to furloughed federal employees after the shutdown ends, this does not help the thousands of contractors (which far exceed federal employees in places like Yosemite), nor the small business owners that rely on a steady stream of tourist business and the associated economic multipliers.

 

***It's not too late to sign up for Capitol Network's 25th Annual Golf Tournament on October 14 at El Macero Country Club. Sponsors and individual golfers are welcome. Proceeds benefit women’s and children’s organizations. Contact Jenny Devine-Smith at jenny@cawg.org, (916) 379-8995 or visit www.capitol-network.org/events_detail.php?events_id=26.

 

CAGOP Wrap:

The governor signed a batch of immigration bills on Saturday (included below), and tomorrow night there is a screening of "Documented" with an appearance by journalist/activist Jose Antonio Vargas. The event is 6:00pm-9:30pm at the Guild Theatre, 2828 35th Street, Sacramento. Complimentary tickets are available here.

#CONGRATS! . . . to Tamara Keith, who moves down Pennsylvania Avenue to be a NPR White House Correspondent, effective January.

#CAKEDAY: Light those candles for the California gubernatorial recalls BIG 1-0! It was ten years ago today when you had the chance to cast your vote for a porn star, a now-departed child star, a "No, but Yes on Me" lieutenant governor, and a bodybuilder. Joe Mathews pens "My 5 Recall Memories."

 


**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • The Center for Responsible Lending-- Legislative Advocate/Counsel, Sacramento, CA. 20 hrs/week, flexible schedule. Develop legislative strategy, monitor policy, provide testimony, etc. Full description at www.responsiblelending.org. Send resume, cover letter and writing sample to hiringmanager@self-help.org.
  • Learn to lobby more effectively. Veteran lobbyist Ray LeBov presents his introductory "Legislative Process / Lobbying 101" and advanced "Lobbying 201" seminars October 31-November 1. $250 each. Valuable for principals / support staff at lobbying firms, organizations that employ lobbyists, public agencies. Info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916 442 5009.
  • SEIU United Healthcare Workers-West Research Analyst-Workforce Development (San Francisco or Sacramento). 150,000 member California healthcare union seeks strategic, progressive, motivated Research Analyst, , 2-3 years research/union experience. Excellent benefits, career ladder. Salary $49k-$91k. Resume, letter, references: recruiter@seiu-uhw.org

SIGNED BILLS

  • AB 4 by Assemblymember Tom Ammiano (D-San Francisco) – Prohibits a law enforcement official from detaining an individual on the basis of a United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) hold after that individual becomes eligible for release from custody, unless specified conditions are met.
  • AB 35 by Assemblymember Roger Hernández (D-West Covina) – Provides that immigration consultants, attorneys, notaries public, and organizations accredited by the United States Board of Immigration Appeals are the only individuals authorized to charge a fee for providing services associated with filing an application under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's deferred action program.
  • AB 66 by Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance) – Electricity: system reliability.
  • AB 127 by Assemblymember Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley) – Fire safety: fire retardants: building insulation.
  • AB 149 by Assemblymember Shirley N. Weber (D-San Diego) – Voting rights: county probation departments.
  • AB 227 by Assemblymember Mike Gatto (D-Los Angeles) – Proposition 65: enforcement.
  • AB 272 by Assemblymember Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) – Rabies: vaccinations.
  • AB 297 by Assemblymember Wesley Chesbro (D-Arcata) – Primary care clinics.
  • AB 304 by Assemblymember Das G. Williams (D-Santa Barbara) – Pesticides: toxic air contaminant: control measures.
  • AB 341 by Assemblymember Roger Dickinson (D-Sacramento) – Green building standards.
  • AB 401 by Assemblymember Tom F. Daly (D-Anaheim) – Transportation: design-build: highways.
  • AB 425 by Assemblymember Toni G. Atkins (D-San Diego) – Pesticides: copper-based antifouling paint: leach rate determination; mitigation measure recommendations.
  • AB 440 by Assemblymember Mike Gatto (D-Los Angeles) – Hazardous materials: releases: local agency cleanup.
  • AB 446 by Assemblymember Holly J. Mitchell (D-Los Angeles) – HIV testing.
  • AB 482 by Assemblymember Toni G. Atkins (D-San Diego) – California Cultural and Historical Endowment.
  • AB 524 by Assemblymember Kevin Mullin (D-South San Francisco) – Provides that a threat to report the immigration status or suspected immigration status of an individual or the individual's family may induce fear sufficient to constitute extortion.
  • AB 633 by Assemblymember Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) – Emergency medical services: civil liability.
  • AB 691 by Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance) – State lands: granted trust lands: sea level rise.
  • AB 755 by Assemblymember Tom Ammiano (D-San Francisco) – Suicide barriers.
  • AB 1024 by Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez (D-San Diego) – Allows applicants, who are not lawfully present in the United States, to be admitted as an attorney at law.
  • AB 1097 by Assemblymember Brian Nestande (R- Palm Desert) – Fish and Game Commission: Mirage Trail.
  • AB 1112 by Assemblymember Tom Ammiano (D-San Francisco) – Transportation transactions and use taxes: Bay Area.
  • AB 1159 by Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez (D-San Diego) – Imposes various restrictions and obligations on persons who offer services related to comprehensive immigration reform.
  • AB 1177 by Assemblymember Raul Bocanegra (D-Los Angeles) – Structural fumigation.
  • AB 1274 by Assemblymember Steven Bradford (D-Gardena) – Privacy: customer electrical or natural gas usage data.
  • AB 1329 by Assemblymember V. Manuel Pérez (D-Coachella) – Hazardous waste.
  • AB 1382 by the Committee on Health - Reporting.
  • SB 141 by Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) – Requires that the California Community Colleges and the California State University, and requests that the University of California, exempt a United States citizen who resides in a foreign country, and is in their first year as a matriculated student, from nonresident tuition if the student demonstrates financial need, has a parent or guardian who was deported or voluntarily departed from the U. S., lived in California immediately before moving abroad, and attended a secondary school in California for at least three years.
  • SB 150 by Senator Ricardo Lara (D-Bell Gardens) – Authorizes a community college district to exempt pupils attending community colleges as a special part-time student from paying nonresident tuition.
  • SB 191 by Senator Alex Padilla (D-Pacoima) – Emergency medical services.
  • SB 291 by Senator Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo) – Public Utilities Commission: safety enforcement: gas and electrical corporations.
  • SB 360 by Senator Alex Padilla (D-Pacoima) – Certification of voting systems.
  • SB 613 by Senator Mark DeSaulnier (D-Concord) – Bay Area Toll Authority.
  • SB 656 by Senator Roderick D. Wright (D-Los Angeles) – Electrical restructuring: natural gas restructuring: information practices.
  • SB 666 by Senator Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) – Provides for a suspension or revocation of an employer's business license for retaliation against employees and others on the basis of citizenship and immigration status, and establishes a civil penalty up to $10,000 per violation.
  • SB 752 by Senator Richard D. Roth (D-Riverside) – Commercial and industrial common interest developments.
  • SB 758 by Senator Marty Block (D-San Diego) – General plans: City of Coronado.
  • SB 825 by the Committee on Governance and Finance – Government finance.

VETOED BILLS

  • AB 340 by Assemblymember Steven Bradford (D-Gardena) – Public utilities: Electric Program Investment Charge: contracting. [VETO MESSAGE]
  • AB 683 by Assemblymember Kevin Mullin (D-South San Francisco) – Local government: fines and penalties: assessments. [VETO MESSAGE]
  • AB 714 by Assemblymember Bob Wieckowski (D-Fremont) – Roman Reed Spinal Cord Injury Research Fund. [VETO MESSAGE]
  • AB 912 by Assemblymember Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton) – Health care coverage: fertility preservation. [VETO MESSAGE]
  • SB 695 by Senator Roderick D. Wright (D-Los Angeles) – California Science Center: parking facilities. [VETO MESSAGE]

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Vote On S.F. Retiree Health Care Shortfall Solution
Marisa Lagos @
sfgate.com
San Francisco voters will be asked next month to approve a measure that seeks to eliminate a projected $4.4 billion shortfall in the city's retiree health care fund over the coming decades, all without increasing employee or taxpayer contributions.

Voter ID Measure Softened, Embraced By California GOP
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
The California Republican Party embraced a tea-party backed resolution urging adoption of a voter identification law Sunday, after the measure was softened considerably to remove any reference to photo identification.

New Focus On Showing Risk As CalPERS Rates Go Up
Ed Mendel @
calpensions.com
A new CalPERS projection shows employer rates for the largest group of state workers increasing 27 percent over the next six years -- but the focus is on the risk of how much things can change.

Study Finds Downsides For Off-year Local Elections
Martha Groves @
latimes.com
The Greenlining Institute says off-year local elections seem to attract disproportionately few voters from minority groups.

California Republican Party Faces Potential Fallout From Government Shutdown
David Siders @
sacbee.com
Economist Arthur Laffer, known as "the father of supply-side economics" and who was an economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan, speaks to an executive committee meeting of the California Republican Party at their convention in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, Oct. 4, 2013.

Vietnamese American Politician Van Tran Plots A Comeback
Anh Do @
latimes.com
Van Tran, a prominent Vietnamese American and former state assemblyman, plans a political comeback with a run for the Board of Equalization.

Incumbents win re-election to CalPERS board
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
J.J. Jelincic and Michael Bilbrey have again won terms on the board of California's largest government retirement system, according to an uncertified tally of votes by CalPERS.

Ed Lee is father of the bride this week
the way, for security reasons, wedding guests have been told that wrapped gifts are not allowed at City Hall. @
sfgate.com
Brianna Lee and her fiance, Mark Chen, both of New York, will tie the knot in a ceremony under the Rotunda - having plunked down $4,500 for one of City Hall's high-end wedding packages after their engagement last year. Despite the public locale, City Hall insiders tell us this is "not a political Who's Who wedding," and very few elected officials or even mayoral staffers were invited. Oakland's political world was rocked by that Chamber of Commerce poll finding Mayor Jean Quan's favorability ratings even lower than those of her predecessor, Ron Dellums. Quan was already facing challenges next year from two candidates - Joe Tuman, a professor of political communications at San Francisco State, and health care executive and Port Commissioner Bryan Parker. Incoming University of California President Janet Napolitano isn't wasting time getting to know the squeaky wheels in the system. The workers have threatened to strike over the university's decision to impose its "final offer" contract.

Campus Centers Help Veterans Jump-start Their College Education
Carla Rivera @
latimes.com
Thousands of military veterans are returning to California colleges this fall, eager to make use of federal education benefits.

After Trauma And Dropping Out, A Diploma And A Job From Oakland Charter School
Louis Freedberg @
edsource.org
While there are many adult education centers and community college programs in California where people who never completed high school can go to earn a high school equivalency degree, known as a GED, Civicorps Academy is the only public high school in the state that requires students to earn a diploma along with job training skills.

Leaders try to forbid transit workers from striking
John Wildermuth @
sfgate.com
Last month, Orinda Councilman Steve Glazer, a former aide to Brown, was at BART stations, handing out flyers and trying to drum up support for his online petition calling for a statewide ban on strikes by public transit workers.

Last week for Gov. Jerry Brown to sign or veto bills
Jeremy B. White @
blogs.sacbee.com
we mean the 2013 legislative process: Lawmakers adjourned for recess back in mid-September, shifting the focus to Gov. Jerry Brown and his all-important pen. This coming Sunday, Oct. 13, marks the final day for the governor to decide which bills become law and which ones expire via veto.

California Tea Party Supporters Revel In Role In Government Shutdown
Cathleen Decker @
latimes.com
Tea party members flex muscles at California Republican Party convention

Mormon leader defends stance vs. same-sex marriage
utsandiego.com
A top Mormon leader says more states and nations may legalize same-sex marriage in the future, but human laws cannot "make moral what God has declared immoral."

Constitutional Crisis: We The People Have Had It With The Shutdown
insidebayarea.com
"I'm very angry," said Peggy Guardanapo, chewing moodily on a rasher of bacon at a diner near her San Jose home. "There should be no shutting of government. It's ridiculous. I do believe it's time it should be turned over to we, the real people."

Back By Popular Demand: The Chronnie Awards, Ca GOP “get Your Hands Off Our Guns” Edition
Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Carolyn Lochhead and Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
Back by popular demand: The Chronnie Awards, CA GOP “Get Your Hands Off Our Guns” edition

Obama to Boehner: 'prove' you don't have the votes
Jennifer Epstein @
politico.com
The president calls on the House to hold a vote on a clean government funding bill.

TV ad in Wyoming Senate race hits Liz Cheney on gay marriage
Mark Z. Barabak @
latimes.com
In the political year 2014, the marquee show will be the battle for control of Congress, with Democrats and Republicans each waging tough fights to seize back control of the House and Senate, respectively.

Financial Issues Cost Foster Care Agency Its L.A. County Contract
Garrett Therolf @
latimes.com
Wings of Refuge lost its L.A. County contract not because of lapses in care, but because it mismanaged millions in taxpayer dollars.

Antonio Villaraigosa's newest gig
Evan Halper @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is taking on another job, and this time it is not at an embattled multilevel marketing company.

Oil Price Gaming Allegations May Get Another Look
Marc Lifsher @
latimes.com
California legislators pass a bill that would direct the state Energy Commission to ferret out any fuel price manipulation.

Political Blotter: What will Brown do about gun bills?
Josh Richman @
mercurynews.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has yet to sign or veto any of the major gun-related bills sent to him in the final days of the Legislature's session, so advocates on both sides are pressuring him to see things their way.