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THE NOONER for July 24, 2013

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Buenos dias, today's Nooner is guest-hosted by Gustavo Jeopardy as Scott is hiking the Appalachian trail. By the way, there are no Carlos Dangers registered to vote in California, but two Anthony Weiners.

Entre tú y yo, Señor Lay (¡Ay, caramba!) would love some more subscribers so he can continue to pay to read all the details regarding Señor Filner.

ELECTIONS: We are all extra-careful in calling elections in this world of outsized late absentees and provisionals, particularly after Leticia Perez concended on May 24, the day after the SD16 primary only to come back enough to bring Andy Vidak below 50%. However, it appears that we can be pretty confident in the results of SD16, AD52, and L.A. Council District 6.

SD16

If the number of absentee and provisional ballots in SD16 are anything less than double the May 23 primary, Andy Vidak will be elected to replace Michael Rubio in the Central Valley seat. Perez would need about 8,500 late ballots and primary-like performance to close Vidak's 5,833-vote lead. While I'm one to say not to pre-judge election night results, in this case, the math is just too hard.

If the results hold true with the election of Vidak, the focus of Democrats to hold a a 27-vote supermajority turn to either SD12 (Cannella) and SD34 (Correa). Dems could either pick-up the former, or hold the latter to keep 27. Alternatively, they could take another run at SD16, which becomes SD14 next year, although the redrawn seat becomes even less competitive for Democrats, even though it will be a higher turnout election.

Also, the most important consolation call Leticia Perez may receive this week may be from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who may still be interested in pushing her to take on David Valadao in CD21.

 

SD16 Preliminary Results
CandidateVotesPercent
Leticia Perez (D) 33,252 46.0%
Andy Vidak (R) 39,085 54.0%

 

Paul Mitchell posted a blog entry on the AV performance in SD16 as the polls closed.

 

AD52

While early results had observers on pins and needles with the possibility of a NPP-Rep top-two, the outcome I wrote yesterday that I expected looks like it will hold, with NPP Paul Leon placing in first and Democrat Freddie Rodriguez taking second. Rodriguez begins the September 24 runoff election campaign as a strong favorite, and it's unlikely the GOP will spend too much to help Leon close the significant partisan gap.

 

AD52 Preliminary Results
CandidateVotesPercent
Paul Vincent Avila (D) 692 4.5%
Tom Haughey (D) 1,329 8.7%
Freddie Rodriguez (D) 3,292 21.6%
Jason A. Rothman (D) 1,429 9.4%
Manuel Saucedo (D) 524 3.4%
Danielle L. Soto (D) 1,146 7.5%
Doris Louise Wallace (D) 793 5.2%
Dorothy F. Pineda (R) 2,211 14.5%
Paul S. Leon (NPP) 3,828 25.1%

Los Angeles CD6

I called this one wrong. Nury Martinez beat most of the Los Angeles machines and the LA Times endorsement to edge Cindy Montanez in this low-turnout affair. The post-mortem is whether the attack by Montanez over child sex abuse, responded to with a confession by Martinez of her own abuse, backfired.

 

Los Angeles Council District 6
Preliminary Results
CandidateVotesPercent
Nury Martinez 4,917 54.57%
Cindy Montanez 4,093 45.42%

 

 

DENIED: The California Supreme Court refused to grant a temporary stay or other injunctive relief to San Diego County Clerk Ernest Dronenburg, Jr. on his request to stop providing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. The cases by Andy Pugno and Dronenburg proceed on the merits of the argument that the Supreme Court's remanded ruling to the Ninth Circuit only applies to either the plaintiff couples or the counties in which they sought same-sex marriages but were denied (Alameda and Los Angeles) because of Prop. 8.

IMMIGRATION: There is a pro-immigration reform art installation project today from 11am to 6pm on 9th and L Streets.

THE 619: As new allegations surfaced from a 2005 incident involving a female fundraiser, Bob Filner responded to the lawsuit by Irene McCormack Jackson

"I am saddened by the charges that were leveled against me today. Once due process is allowed to unfold, I am certain there will be a better understanding of this situation."

The U-T asks which is worse--Bob Filner's behavior or Anthony Weiner's. Weiner was being stupid, while Filner (if proven true) was creating liability for taxpayers.

MICRA: Jon Fleischman licks his chops over the possible internal fight legislative Democrats could have soon over medical malpractice caps, which pit trial lawyers against doctors.

But the politics of a big MICRA fight in the legislature makes for some fun spectator sport for Republicans. A MICRA fight pits two long-time Democratic allies against one another. On the one hand, you have the trial lawyer lobby, a large contributor to Democratic candidates and causes. On the other, you have California’s oft-liberal-leaning medical provider community. Local health clinics, the doctor lobby, Planned Parenthood and the like. Basically everyone clamoring to implement Obamacare.

DOUBLE X FACTOR: Special Elections – A Key Pathway for Female Legislators? [Kristin Bladd @ Georgetown Public Policy Review]

YEA, I'M NOT GOING TO NEED YOU TO COME IN ON SATURDAY, OR TUESDAY, OR THURSDAY....MMMKAY?: An Explosion in Part-Time Employment [Michael Bernick @ Fox & Hounds]

 

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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Two Legislative Seats Up For Grabs In Special Elections Tuesday
Anthony York @
latimes.com
Voters in the Central Valley and San Bernardino County head to the polls on Tuesday to fill two of the four open seats in the Legislature, as Republicans hope to chip away at the Democratic supermajority in the state Senate and keep them from regaining that advantage in the Assembly.

CalPERS Opens Special Window For Same-sex Couples To Enroll In Health Benefits - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
With the federal Defense of Marriage Act struck down by the Supreme Court, CalPERS' health insurance plan this week declared a special open-enrollment period for same-sex couples who are already married.

S.F. OKs health care rates for city staff, retirees
Marisa Lagos @
sfgate.com
The San Francisco Board of Supervisors unanimously approved a package of health care rates for public employees and retirees Tuesday, including a controversial 5.25 percent increase to Kaiser Permanente rates.

Fundraising Central: Big National Trial Lawyers Convention In Sf Is A Political Bonanza
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
Fundraising central: big national trial lawyers convention in SF is a political bonanza

Jerry Brown On A Big Roll
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Jerry Brown's second governorship got off to a rocky start as he squabbled with both Republicans and his fellow Democrats over the state budget's deficit and finally resorted to fiscal sleight of hand to balance it on paper. For the last year, however, Brown has been on a roll. He persuaded voters to raise taxes to close the deficit with new taxes, and as the extra money rolled in, Brown forced Democratic legislators to curb their expansionist tendencies in favor of paying down debt and building reserves.

Senate Race Tight; Assembly Race Headed To Runoff
LAURA OLSON Associated Press @
mercurynews.com
With 100 percent of precincts reporting in the 16th Senate District, Republican Andy Vidak had about 54 percent Tuesday to Democrat Leticia Perez's 46 percent. The district spans Kings, Fresno, Kern and Tulare counties.

Court Rejects Bid To Stop Gay Marriages
Gary Warth @
utsandiego.com
he California Supreme Court on Tuesday denied San Diego County Clerk Ernest Dronenburg’s request to temporarily stop counties statewide from issuing licenses for same-sex marriages.

Leticia Perez Vs. Andy Vidak
Jeremy B. White @
blogs.sacbee.com
The battle for the 16th Senate District seat abandoned by Michael Rubio, culminating in today's election, has been a costly one.

California Prison Overcrowding Issue Goes Back To Justice Kennedy
David G. Savage @
latimes.com
Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy in 2011 sided against California's overcrowded prisons. Now Jerry Brown wants his support.

San Jose pension reform battle could affect county election
Tracy Seipel @
mercurynews.com
While San Jose's pension battle is in the spotlight, Santa Clara County District 2 voters are casting their ballots for either labor leader Cindy Chavez, who opposed Measure B, and water district communications manager Teresa Alvarado, who voted for it.

As Clock Ticks, Fierce Turnout Effort for Health Law
nytimes.com
With the health care rollout on Oct. 1, an Obama administration team of political operators and data-crunching technocrats is working to sell the law to Americans.

California Redistributes $4 Billion In Redevelopment Revenue
Barbara Jones, Staff Writer @
dailynews.com
More than $1 billion is pouring into the coffers of cities, school districts and other public entities across Los Angeles County, as the state redistributes $4 billion formerly used to battle blight.

Jerry Brown's Approval Ratings Take A Dip But Remain High - Gov. Jerry Brown - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Though his standing with Californian's has dipped somewhat since February, a majority still believe Gov. Jerry Brown is doing a good job, new Field Poll results show.

Measure Limiting Pay Of Top Brass At Mountain View-based El Camino Hospital Ruled Unconstitutional
Local @
mercurynews.com
Service Employees Union International-United Healthcare Workers West, which represents 1,200 workers at the Mountain View-based hospital, spearheaded the effort to put Measure M on the ballot last November. Voters passed it by a narrow margin, 51.55 percent to 48.45 percent.

CalPERS will start coverage of gay marriage spouses
sacbee.com
In response to last month's historic gay-marriage rulings by the U.S. Supreme Court, CalPERS' health plan is holding a special open-enrollment period for same-sex couples who were previously married.

National Briefing | Washington: Senate Panel Clears Way for Vote on Power as Ambassador to U.N.
nytimes.com
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee overwhelmingly approved Samantha Power on Tuesday to be ambassador to the United Nations, clearing the way for a vote in the full Senate.

State Workers Arrested In Bribery, Fraud Case, Attorney General Says
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
Two state employees have been arrested and charged with accepting bribes from a contractor accused of defrauding the state, Atty. Gen. Kamala D. Harris announced Tuesday.

Parties campaign heavily in state Senate runoff
utsandiego.com
With the Legislature in recess, both major political parties are focused on a special election to fill a state Senate seat that potentially has long-term consequences.

California Lawmakers Pressure White House Ahead Of Vietnamese Presidential Visit | Represent! | 89.3 Kpcc
Kitty Felde @
scpr.org
Join Alex Cohen and A Martínez for a conversational and witty look at the issues people are buzzing about.

Press Can See UC Davis Police Names In Pepper-spraying, Court Says
Larry Gordon @
latimes.com
A state appellate court ruled Tuesday that newspapers have a right to learn, and publish, the names of all the UC Davis campus police officers involved in the controversial and much-publicized pepper-spraying of student protesters in 2011.

2 CA state workers charged with taking kickbacks
utsandiego.com
Attorney General Kamala Harris says two state employees and a business owner are charged with defrauding the state by taking bribes, forging documents and misappropriating taxpayer money.

California Moving Away From Washington's Corporate Education Reform | Edsource Today
John Affeldt @
edsource.org
California’s shift to a new weighted student funding model represents just the most recent example of how Democratic state policymakers here are charting a different course in education policy than the Obama Administration and Congress.

Ignoring 'Rule,' Democrat Picks Pension Fight
Dan Morain @
sacbee.com
Chuck Reed, the mayor of the third largest city in California, is a rare breed of politician, a Democrat who can't quite get the orthodoxy right.

Lawsuit Over Sale Of California State Office Buildings Moves Forward
Melody Gutierrez @
blogs.sacbee.com
Remember that plan to sell 11 state office buildings to raise cash during the Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger administration?

L.A. Fund Unveils Shepard Fairey Art Project In Lausd Campaign - La Daily News
Barbara Jones, Staff Writer @
dailynews.com
Los Angeles Unified on Tuesday unveiled its final public arts project under a recent campaign -- a bold graphic by contemporary artist Shepard Fairey that will be displayed on bus wraps and hundreds of billboards promoting the importance of creativity in education.