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THE NOONER for July 12, 2013

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DISTRICT CHANGES:
  • SD26/SD30 (Culver City): updated analysis (included below)
  • AD45 (West San Fernando Valley): updated analysis (included below)
  • AD52 (Pomona-Ontario): updated analysis (included below)

SUBSCRIBERS can download a spreadsheet of all candidates, with district geography, analysis, and outlook.

 

Good morning, it's board meeting day today, so this will likely be a quickie. Of course, Sacto readers are probably already floating down the river, but don't bring the booze, or you can go fuel up at the state fair, which begins today. Our DC readers have already knocked back a Dogfish to prepare for Nats v. Marlins, our LA, SF, and San Diego readers are freaking out about this Weather Channel visualization, while everyone else is at the preview of Nordstrom's Anniversary Sale. Oh, that's except for Senate staffers, who are spending the weekend in Delano, Fresno, Dinuba Lemoore, Wasco, and environs.

LET THERE BE FLIGHT: Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano is leaving her post to assume the presidency of the University of California. 

I received a message right after the announcement from someone saying that this is the perfect post for Attorney General Kamala Harris. While I like her, I just don't see her getting U.S. Senate confirmation anytime soon, largely because of the high profile she has taken on same-sex marriage. Additionally, Obama will be under immense pressure to appoint a Latino, as Napolitano's departure leaves the cabinet without any Latinos. Of course, the cabinet is also without any Californians...can anyone think of a qualified Latino Californian that can get Senate confirmation?

HOW DO YOU LIKE ME NOW?!?!?! Economist Steve Levy reports the Golden State will reclaim the world's 8th largest economy by the end of 2013, moving past Italy & Russia.

SD16: One of our Capitol Hill readers makes a great point omitted from my analysis of the open State Senate seat. It is true that Republican interests in California are mostly interested in electing Andy Vidak as the only hope to keep Democrats under a supermajority for the decade. However, national Republicans are watching it, as if Leticia Perez wins July 23 and again in 2014, she would have a free shot at David Valadao in 2016, which may be the first chance for Democrats to retake the house. 

Vidak, Perez campaigns watching ballot count for Valley state Senate race [Lew Griswold @ Fresno Bee] - "According to Political Data Inc., as of Wednesday 29,842 ballots had been mailed to the elections offices in Fresno, Kern, Kings and Tulare counties. Political Data provides voting information to campaigns. Both campaigns say when they break down the vote-by-mail ballot — Democrat, Republican and other — the numbers favor their candidate."

AD52: Democrats rush to bolster candidate [Jim Miller @ PE]

It's true that there are some polling scenarios that have Paul Leon and Dorothy Pineda coming in 1-2. The challenge for Democrats and allies is Leon must be destroyed, as he starts out polling highly among Republicans. As he's hit with negative IEs, does this just equalize the votes between him and Pineda, thus actually increasing the likelihood of a no-Dem runoff? 

EAR CANDY: How This American Life made it to 500 episodes [Adam B. Vary @ BuzzFeed]

Finally, we have a reason why Jerry Brown needs to be worried about Tim Donnelly.

"'I was just at a gas station in Arroyo Grande, and there was a line for the bathroom,' Donnelly said. 'I didn’t want to waste any time, so I won three votes while I was waiting in line for the bathroom. That’s what I call guerrilla, grass roots.'"

If his bladder is small enough, he may just win this thing.

 

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THE SOFA CALIFORNIA POLITICS AND POLICY DEGREE:

I have also posted the list on AroundTheCapitol.com.

 

  

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California Senate Confirms Jeffrey Beard As New Prisons Chief
Laurel Rosenhall @
blogs.sacbee.com
After a partisan debate in which Republicans criticized Gov. Jerry Brown's nominee to run the state's prisons and Democrats praised him as the best man for the job, the California Senate today voted to confirm Jeffrey Beard as secretary of the state's Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.

Lawmakers Call For Investigation Of Alleged Prison Sterilizations
Chris Megerian @
latimes.com
Lawmakers are calling for an investigation into allegations that prison doctors pressured female inmates into being sterilized.

Good News, Jerry Brown: CA Again World's Eighth Largest Economy
Carla Marinucci @
blog.sfgate.com
California political leaders, starting with Gov. Jerry Brown, should be popping the champagne corks: the state has rebounded enough to surpass Italy and Russia and reclaim its title as the world’s eight’s largest economy in 2013, according to a new study by the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.

Viewpoints: Did Prop. 13 Help Produce The Pension Mess?
Peter Schrag @
sacbee.com
Did Proposition 13 help create the conditions that have contributed mightily to those unfunded liabilities?

Activists Push Anti-deportation Bill With Gov. Brown's Staff
Chris Megerian @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- Immigrant activists met with members of Gov. Jerry Brown's office on Wednesday as they continued pushing for legislation aimed at reducing deportations.

Jerry Brown signs SEIU Local 1000 contract
Amy Gebert @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown on Thursday signed into law a new contract agreement between the state and SEIU Local 1000.

The Importance Of The Sd 16 Election :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
Who would have thought that the epicenter of California politics in 2013 would be found in Delano?

Senate backs Brown's choice for prison secretary
utsandiego.com
The state Senate on Thursday confirmed Gov. Jerry Brown's choice to lead California's prison system as it faces multiple challenges, from a massive hunger strike to shifting thousands of inmates in response to federal court orders.

Some Prison Inmates Have Ended Meal Strikes, Officials Say
Paige St. John @
latimes.com
As meal strikes and work stoppages continue in most of California's prisons, 10 inmates at one facility have ended their protests and resumed eating, officials said.

Petition filed to block California county clerks from performing same-sex marriages
sacbee.com
Folsom attorney Andrew Pugno has filed a petition against the state's 58 county clerks, asking the California Supreme Court to keep them from performing same-sex marriages.

Dem V Dem For Constitutional Offices In 2014? :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
I put the question to election guru, Allan Hoffenblum, editor of the Target Book that tracks California elections.

Cmfthirdpartyheader - Sfgate
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
Today

Ap California State News Wire | Union Democrat | Sonora News, Sports, & Weather, Angels Camp, Twain Harte, Jamestown - Ap Nation / World
customwire.ap.org
>Union Democrat | Sonora News, Sports, & Weather, Angels Camp, Twain Harte, Jamestown

State Declares More Than 12,400 Prison 'hunger Strikers'
Paige St. John @
latimes.com
Switching how it keeps count, California officials Thursday said the state had more than 12,400 inmates officially on hunger strike , having refused state meals for at least three days.

Gay marriage foes try again to revive California's Proposition 8
Howard Mintz @
mercurynews.com
Gay marriage ban supporters urge California Supreme Court to intervene and halt same-sex marriages across state, but legal move faces long odds

Supporters of Calif. gay marriage ban ask state supreme court to stop same-sex...
utsandiego.com
Supporters of Calif. gay marriage ban ask state supreme court to stop same-sex weddings.

Napolitano to head University of California
sfgate.com
Napolitano, 55, will step down from her cabinet post to become UC's 20th president and the first women to head the 10-campus system, pending approval by the regents at their meeting Thursday in San Francisco. "Secretary Napolitano is a distinguished and dedicated public servant who has earned trust at the highest, most critical levels of our country's government," said Board of Regents President Sherry Lansing, who chaired a 10-member search committee.

Southern California Beach Fire Rings' Fate To Be Decided Today
Tony Barboza @
latimes.com
Air quality district board today will vote on new restrictions proposed for Southern California beach fire rings.

AM Alert
Micaela Massimino @
blogs.sacbee.com
School's now out for both houses of the California Legislature, and when senators return from their summer recess Aug. 12, they'll likely know who'll join them from the 16th Senate District -- Republican Andy Vidak or Democrat Leticia Perez.

U.S. Sues California Prisons Over Sexual Harassment Of Prison Cook
Dan Levine @
reuters.com
 The U.S. Department of Justice sued California's corrections system on Thursday, saying prison supervisors failed to prevent a male cook from being sexually harassed by his female co-worker.

Report Card: Sacramento School Plaintiffs Allege Faulty Data Behind Closures
Loretta Kalb @
blogs.sacbee.com
A witness in the lawsuit seeking to block Sacramento City Unified from closing seven elementary schools testified today that the district overstated capacity of some campuses when it decided which ones to close.