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THE NOONER for July 11, 2013

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DISTRICT CHANGES:
  • SD26/SD30 (Culver City): updated analysis (included below)
  • AD45 (West San Fernando Valley): updated analysis (included below)
  • AD52 (Pomona-Ontario): updated analysis (included below)

SUBSCRIBERS can download a spreadsheet of all candidates, with district geography, analysis, and outlook.

 

SD26/SD30 (Culver City)

With Curren Price moving over to the State Senate, Holly Mitchell has a chance to move from the Assembly to the Senate a year early. She will likely win the seat outright on September 17, and will be eligible to serve two additional terms commencing in 2014 and 2018.

NOTE: The special in 2013 is actually for SD26, although the district is substantially similar to SD30, which will be so-numbered with the 2014 election.

AD52 (Updated):

The domino effect from Gloria Negrete McLeod's 2012 election to congress continues with a special election to fill Norma Torres's Assembly District. Torres was elected to the State Senate on May 14. The primary is scheduled for July 23 and there will almost certainly be a September 24 runoff.

Manuel Saucedo has picked up the endorsement of former Congressman Joe Baca. From what I can recall, this is the first "three-way" split of the Democratic politics in the region, with Gloria Negrete McLeod supporting Danielle Soto and Norma Torres endorsing Freddie Rodriguez. A fourth Democrat, Jason Rothman, has important family ties (dad is mayor of Pomona) and has the only education ballot label.

Ontario mayor Paul Leon dropped his Republican registration that he carried through the special election for the State Senate seat against Torres. He is thus the only NPP candidate on the ballot, and Dorothy Pineda is running as the lone Republican.

This will be a brutal primary and the turnout is probably about as brutully low as 10%, which was the turnout in the special in the overlapping SD32 on May 14 (10.42% in run-off; 9.15% in primary). If we project similar turnout in AD52, that's only 17,707 votes! On average, the 9 candidates will average 1,967 votes each. In fact, the five "higher tier" candidates--including Leon, Rodriguez, Rothman, Saucedo, and Soto--will probably split a combined 80% of the vote, meaning that the top two will be in the 3,000 vote range. If anyone tries to spin you that their candidate is in the clear lead, don't believe them. This will very likely be a nail biter.

I don't think there's a chance for both Leon and Pineda to make top two, squeezing out Democrats as we saw in CD31 in 2012. The Inland Valley Daily Tribune has endorsed Paul Leon, and he is likely to make the runoff. The California Teachers Association is trying to stop him and has launched an independent expenditure against Paul Leon, trying to bank two Democrats rather than risk a NPP candidate on the runoff ballot.

However, whichever Democrat emerges should win the district easily in September.

AD45 (West San Fernando Valley): 

With Bob Blumenfield's swearing-in to the Los Angeles City Council, this safe Democratic seat opens up and lots of upcoming politicos see an opportunity to begin a twelve-year career in the Assembly. With seven Democrats and many well-funded and well-endorsed, it is impossible to predict who will emerge in the top-two on September 17. However, it is likely that a Republican will emerge along with a Democrat, and then a November runoff that will almost certainly result in a Dem being sent to Sacramento.

SANDY EGGO: Key backers call for Filner to resign [Craig Gustafson @ UTSD] - "Three of Mayor Bob Filner's biggest supporters, including former City Councilwoman Donna Frye, have called on him to resign over allegations of sexual harassment."

Somehow, I've got to imagine we'll be seeing Gloria Allred soon.

Employers face changes after same-sex-marriage ruling [Wendy Kaufman @ NPR]

Can't we all get along? Adorable.

It's 7/11, meaning you can get a free Slurpee at any 7/11. And, because America needs more pure sugar calories, this year's giveaway is 69% bigger.

Anyone know what that huge white flag is flying over AT&T Park?

 

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THE SOFA CALIFORNIA POLITICS AND POLICY DEGREE:

I have also posted the list on AroundTheCapitol.com.

 

  

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California Senate Leader Questions Future Of Water Bond
Katie Orr @
capradio.org
California Senate Leader Darrell Steinberg says he’s not sure a long-delayed $11 billion water bond will make it on the 2014 ballot.

California Tax Revenue Beats Projections, Chiang Says
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
The state collected about $1.2 billion more in tax revenue last month than Gov. Jerry Brown projected, ending the fiscal year about $2 billion ahead of expectations, the state controller reported today.

Jerry Brown Extends Private Prisons Deal -- Without Funds Budgeted
Paige St. John @
latimes.com
Though he has no money in the state budget yet to follow through, Gov. Jerry Brown has signed a three-year deal with a private prison contractor that allows the state to continue keeping more than 8,200 inmates out of state.

The Buzz: Darrell Steinberg weighs in on controversy pitting doctors against lawyers
sacbee.com
When Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg met with the Capitol press corps Wednesday, a question arose about the law known by the acronym MICRA.

State Senate Leader Says Democrats' Super-majority Made Difference
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
The Democrats¿ super-majority in the state Senate has made a difference, Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg said

Steinberg dishes on the Swarm
sacbee.com
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg says he supports the idea of limiting fundraising in the Legislature during non-election years -- sort of. He comments on the FBI investigation and the state's open records law.

The Swarm: Darrell Steinberg sees 'nub' in Schnur's idea to limit fundraising
Dan Morain @
blogs.sacbee.com
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, whose job requires that he raise millions for Senate Democratic campaigns, said today that Republican operative-turned academic Dan Schnur has the "nub of a good idea" for limiting fundraising.

L.A. Unified Aims To Revive Arts Education
Teresa Watanabe @
latimes.com
Aided by a $750,000 grant, Los Angeles Unified plans to integrate arts education into core academic classes.

California Renews Deal To Keep Its Prisoners In Arizona, Oklahoma, Mississippi
Steven E.F. Brown @
bizjournals.com
California renewed a deal with Corrections Corp. of America to keep as many as 8,200 prisoners in other states for three years.

Senate Student Loan Interest Rate Bill Fails On Procedural Vote
Jenna Johnson @
washingtonpost.com
A Senate bill that would restore a low interest rate on one type of federal student loan for another year failed to clear a procedural hurdle Wednesday, sending the issue back to the negotiating table as lawmakers try to reach a consensus before the August recess.

Sidelined Obama Faces Impossible Task On Immigration
Alex Altman and Zeke Miller @
swampland.time.com
As the Senate haggled over a sweeping bill to rewrite U.S. immigration policy, Obama lurked in the shadows, eschewing public negotiations and leaving his aides to work Capitol back channels. But now, with a radioactive image among House Republicans, and few tools to tame congressional gridlock, the President is preparing to take a more vocal role.

Ca Psychiatric Technicians Reach Tentative Deal With Jerry Brown
Amy Gebert @
blogs.sacbee.com
State psychiatric technicians and Gov. Jerry Brown reached a tentative three-year agreement Wednesday that includes a 4.25 percent pay raise for the unit by 2015.

California Prison Protests Enter Third Day
Paige St. John @
latimes.com
Meal strikes and work stoppages continued for a third day Wednesday in most of California's crowded prisons.

Prison Chief: Hunger Strike Won't Help CA Inmates
DON THOMPSON Associated Press @
montereyherald.com
In his first comments on the subject, Corrections Secretary Jeffrey Beard tells The Associated Press that the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation already has a program to reduce isolation sentences that can last for decades.

GOP grapples with overhauling immigration laws
sacbee.com
Deeply divided, Republicans struggled Wednesday to find common ground over how to deal with the nation’s 11 million undocumented immigrants. The schism poses a serious threat to the party in the 2014 congressional and 2016 presidential elections. It pits establishment figures such as former President George W. Bush and possible White House contender Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on one side and the party’s potent conservative base on the other.

Dan Walters Daily
Amy Gebert @
blogs.sacbee.com
Advocates for open records and government transparency have seen recent victories, but CalPERS' decision to delay its release of pension records is a big setback, Dan says.

Sacramento Kings hire NBA executive Chris Granger as new team president
mercurynews.com
NBA executive Chris Granger is leaving the league offices to become the president of the Sacramento Kings

The Swarm: Sen. Steinberg looks into crystal ball on his political future
Foon Rhee @
blogs.sacbee.com
So many possibilities, it's enough to make a politician's head spin.

Showdown Nears in Senate Over Filibusters Change
nytimes.com
Senator Harry Reid plans to recommend that Democrats should vote to bar Republicans from filibustering presidential nominees.

Possible Quick Fix To Bay Bridge Broken Rods
Michael Cabanatuan @
sfgate.com
Two days after transportation officials called off the planned Labor Day opening for the new Bay Bridge and said it may not be ready until at least December, an independent review panel on Wednesday suggested an interim fix that just might allow it to open on schedule.