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THE NOONER for May 13, 2013
Below the jump, I sketch out the basic playing field for the 153 Assembly, Senate and congressional seats on the ballot next year, which went live on Around The Capitol's district pages yesterday. As always, I need your on-the-ground intelligence as you see candidates deciding whether or not to make a run.
Of course, it's early. Several incumbents listed, such as Allan Mansoor, are eyeing other offices (supe, in his case), which would lead to open seats. Things will be quite fluid for the remainder of this year.
First, a few reads:
WOOD: Happy 5th anniversary to Fox and Hounds.
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST: The UT San Diego follows the OC Register with a complete paywall, with electronic subscriptions at $3.49/week. This will be a big test of whether people want to pay to read coverage of the Padres and the Chargers.
Paid Nooner subscribers can download a spreadsheet of candidates.
AD01 (Northeast Cal) - Safe Republican
AD02 (North Coast) - Safe Democrat
AD03 (Butte-Tehama-Yuba) - Safe Republican
AD04 (Napa/Yolo/Dixon) - Safe Democrat
AD05 (Foothills) - Safe Republican
AD06 (Roseville) - Safe Republican
AD07 (Sacramento) - Safe Democrat
AD08 (East Sacramento Co.) - Leans Democrat
AD09 (South Sacramento) - Safe Democrat
AD10 (Marin-Petaluma) - Safe Democrat
AD11 (Fairfield-Delta) - Safe Democrat
AD12 (Modesto) - Safe Republican
AD13 (Stockton) - Safe Democrat
AD14 (Concord) - Safe Democrat
AD15 (Berkeley) - Safe Democrat
AD16 (Tri-Valley) - Leans Democrat
AD17 (East SF) - Safe Democrat
AD18 (Oakland) - Safe Democrat
AD19 (West SF) - Safe Democrat
AD20 (Hayward) - Safe Democrat
AD21 (Merced) - Leans Democrat
AD22 (San Mateo) - Safe Democrat
AD23 (Fresno) - Safe Republican
AD24 (Palo Alto-Mountain View) - Safe Democrat
AD25 (Fremont-Sta Clara) - Safe Democrat
AD26 (Tulare) - Safe Republican
AD27 (San Jose) - Safe Democrat
AD28 (Campbell-Saratoga) - Safe Democrat
AD29 (Monterey) - Safe Democrat
AD30 (East Monterey) - Safe Democrat
AD31 (W. Fresno) - Safe Democrat
AD32 (Kings) - Leans Democrat
AD33 (SB High Desert) - Safe Republican
AD34 (Bakersfield) - Safe Republican
AD35 (San Luis Obispo) - Leans Republican
AD36 (Palmdale) - Leans Republican
AD37 (Santa Barbara) - Safe Democrat
AD38 (Santa Clarita) - Safe Republican
AD39 (E. San Fernando) - Safe Democrat
AD40 (Redlands) - Leans Republican
AD41 (Pasadena) - Safe Democrat
AD42 (Yucaipa) - Safe Republican
AD43 (Burbank) - Safe Democrat
AD44 (Ventura Co) - Leans Republican
AD45 (W. San Fernando V) - Safe Democrat
This seat is subject to a special election in fall 2013 after Bob Blumenfield is sworn in as a Los Angeles City Councilmember on July 1.
AD46 (Sherman Oaks) - Safe Democrat
AD47 (Rialto) - Safe Democrat
AD48 (West Covina) - Safe Democrat
AD49 (Monterey Park) - Safe Democrat
AD50 (West LA) - Safe Democrat
AD51 (East LA) - Safe Democrat
AD52 (Ontario) - Safe Democrat
This seat is espected to be subject to a special election in fall 2013 if Norma Torres wins the SD32 runoff.
AD55 (Yorba Linda) - Safe Republican
AD56 (Imperial County) - Safe Democrat
AD57 (Whittier) - Safe Democrat
AD58 (Downey) - Safe Democrat
AD59 (South LA) - Safe Democrat
AD60 (Corona) - Leans Republican
AD61 (Riverside) - Leans Democrat
AD62 (Inglewood) - Safe Democrat
AD63 (South Gate) - Safe Democrat
AD64 (Carson) - Safe Democrat
AD65 (Fullerton) - Leans Republican
AD66 (Torrance) - Swing
AD67 (Murrieta) - Safe Republican
AD68 (Tustin) - Safe Republican
AD69 (Santa Ana) - Safe Democrat
AD70 (Long Beach) - Safe Democrat
AD71 (East SD Co.) - Safe Republican
AD72 (Seal Beach) - Safe Republican
AD73 (Dana Point) - Safe Republican
AD74 (Irvine) - Safe Republican
AD75 (Escondido) - Safe Republican
AD76 (Carlsbad) - Safe Republican
AD77 (North SD) - Safe Republican
AD78 (Coastal SD) - Safe Democrat
AD79 (East SD) - Safe Democrat
AD80 (South SD) - Safe Democrat
This seat is subject to a special election in spring 2013 to fill the vacancy caused by Ben Hueso's ascension to State Senate.
SD02 (North Coast) - Safe Democrat
SD04 (Roseville-Yuba-Tehama) - Safe Republican
SD06 (Sacramento) - Safe Democrat
SD08 (Foothills) - Safe Republican
SD10 (Hywd-Frmnt-Snta Clra) - Safe Democrat
SD12 (Merced) - Leans Democrat
SD14 (Fresno/Bakersfield) - Safe Democrat
This seat is subject to a special election in the "old" SD16 in 2013 to fill the vacancy created by Michael Rubio's resignation.
SD16 (Kern) - Safe Republican
SD18 (San Fernando V) - Safe Democrat
SD20 (Ontario) - Safe Democrat
This seat is subject to a special election in the "old" SD32 in 2013 to full the vacancy created by Gloria Negrete McLeod's ascension to Congress.
SD22 (San Gabriel Valley) - Safe Democrat
SD24 (East LA) - Safe Democrat
SD26 (Coast LA) - Safe Democrat
SD28 (Coachella Valley) - Safe Republican
SD30 (Culver City) - Safe Democrat
SD32 (Whittier) - Safe Democrat
SD34 (Huntington Beach) - Leans Republican
SD36 (Carlsbad) - Safe Republican
SD38 (East San Diego Co.) - Safe Republican
SD40 (S. San Diego) - Safe Democrat
CD01 (Northeast Cal) - Safe Republican
CD02 (North Coast) - Safe Democrat
CD03 (Yolano-Yuba-Lake) - Safe Democrat
CD04 (Foothills) - Safe Republican
CD05 (Napa-Santa Rosa) - Safe Democrat
CD06 (Sacramento) - Safe Democrat
CD07 (E. Sac Co) - Swing
CD08 (SB High Desert) - Safe Republican
CD09 (San Joaquin) - Leans Democrat
CD10 (Stanislaus) - Swing
CD11 (Contra Costa) - Safe Democrat
CD12 (San Francisco) - Safe Democrat
CD13 (Oakland) - Safe Democrat
CD14 (San Mateo) - Safe Democrat
CD15 (Hawyard-Pleas-Liv) - Safe Democrat
CD16 (Merced) - Safe Democrat
CD17 (Milpitas) - Safe Democrat
CD18 (Silicon Valley) - Safe Democrat
CD19 (San Jose) - Safe Democrat
CD20 (Monterey) - Safe Democrat
CD21 (Kings) - Leans Republican
CD22 (Fresno) - Safe Republican
CD23 (Kern) - Safe Republican
CD24 (Santa Barbara) - Swing
CD25 (S. Clarita/Palmdale) - Leans Republican
CD26 (Ventura Co) - Leans Democrat
CD27 (Pasadena) - Safe Democrat
CD28 (Hollywood) - Safe Democrat
CD29 (E. San Fernando V) - Safe Democrat
CD30 (W. San Fernando Vly) - Safe Democrat
CD31 (San Bernardino) - Swing
CD32 (W. Covina) - Safe Democrat
CD33 (LA Coast) - Safe Democrat
CD34 (Downtown LA) - Safe Democrat
CD35 (Ontario) - Safe Democrat
CD36 (Coachella V) - Swing
CD37 (Culver City) - Safe Democrat
CD38 (Whittier) - Safe Democrat
CD39 (Fullerton) - Safe Republican
CD40 (Downey) - Safe Democrat
CD41 (Riverside) - Leans Democrat
CD42 (Corona) - Safe Republican
CD43 (Inglewood) - Safe Democrat
CD44 (Carson) - Safe Democrat
CD45 (Irvine) - Safe Republican
CD46 (Santa Ana) - Safe Democrat
CD47 (Long Beach) - Leans Democrat
CD48 (Huntington Beach) - Safe Republican
CD49 (Carlsbad) - Safe Republican
CD50 (East SD Co.) - Safe Republican
CD51 (S. SD - Imperial) - Safe Democrat
CD52 (SD) - Swing
CD53 (La Mesa) - Safe Democrat
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Union Actuary Says UC Overstates Pension Costs
Ed Mendel @ calpensions.com
A large technical-worker union that plans a strike at five University of California hospitals next week opposes the next phase of a pension reform, arguing that costs have been overstated to get workers to pay more toward their pensions.
Villaraigosa-backed School Board Candidate Leads Money Race
Howard Blume @ latimes.com
The money race among two remaining candidates for the Los Angeles Board of Education is competitive, but outside spending has skewed resources decidedly toward the one backed by L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa .
Love Could Kill Jerry Brown's School Plan
Dan Walters @ sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown's ambitious plan to overhaul how California schools are financed may be loved to death.
Health Insurance Tax 'Scares The Daylights' Out Of Some Small-Business Owners
J.D. Harrison @ washingtonpost.com
Many small-business owners worry that a new tax on insurance providers in the health-care law will mean higher premiums for them, undermining the lawâs capacity to lower their health-care costs.
A Volatile Mix: Health Care And Immigration Reform
Paige Winfield Cunningham @ politico.com
Politically, itâs a no-brainer: People in the country illegally shouldnât get government health care benefits.
Special Election: Leon, Torres Face Off Tuesday
JIM MILLER @ pe.com
In the Pomona-to-San Bernardino 32nd, by comparison, Assemblywoman Norma Torres, D-Pomona, is a strong favorite over Ontario Mayor Paul Leon, a Republican, in the race to serve out the term of former state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod, D-Chino.
Top-two Politics: Biz Plots, Back Stories & Backbiting
With some juicy back stories and backbiting from two 2012 Assembly races already spilling over into 2014 campaigns, however, we thought it would be worth checking out some of the intriguing behind-the-scenes activity that went down.
California Democrats Urge Fiscal Responsibility With Revised Budget
Steven Harmon @ mercurynews.com
With cash pouring into state coffers at a much higher rate than expected, Democrats in the Legislature are no doubt tempted to reopen their spending spigot and restore social programs that have taken devastating hits in recent years.
Gay-rights Groups Pressure Obama To Help Them On Immigration Reform - The Hill - Covering Congress, Politics, Political Campaigns And Capitol Hill | Thehill.com
Ian Swanson @ thehill.com
The Hill 1625 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 tel | 202-628-8503 fax
Health Secretary Raises Funds for Health Care Law
Administration officials said private donations were needed because Congress had provided much less money than President Obama requested to publicize the new law.
Crucial Week Ahead For Sacramento Group's Offer To Buy Kings
Tony Bizjak, Dale Kasler, and Ryan Lillis @ sacbee.com
Despite repeatedly dismissing overtures from a Sacramento group eager to buy the Kings, the team's owners have not closed the door on that possibility and were receiving updates from the NBA on the Sacramento group's efforts as recently as this weekend, a source said Sunday.
Schools: Funding Formulas A Top Budget Issue
JIM MILLER @ pe.com
The issue will be center stage Tuesday, May 14, when Gov. Jerry Brown releases a revised spending plan that will kick off intense negotiations on a new budget.
It's official: Kaiser workers pick SEIU
The federal government has certified the Service Employees International Union's recent election victory at Kaiser Permanente, the union announced today, capping a bitter fight with an upstart union.
Feinstein: Review Military Sexual Assault Cases Outside Command Chain
“I think it has to be taken out of the command decision-making,” Feinstein said on NBC News’s “Meet The Press.” “It’s clear that there’s too much excuse, and this has got to stop. And there has to be zero tolerance, and that has to be supported by a separate judicial process, whether it’s a full court-martial process or anything else, apart from the military command structure.”
Feuer Touts His Ability To Work Cooperatively
Patrick McGreevy @ latimes.com
But while former colleagues on the L.A. City Council and Assembly describe him as driven and intelligent, they say his style can be abrasive.
Amid Kings Actions, Sacramento Makes Commitments To The Arts
Ryan Lillis @ sacbee.com
Art or basketball? The city of Sacramento says it can do both. Reacting to concerns that subsidizing a new downtown sports arena could hurt funding for the arts, the City Council last week delivered a boost to some of the city's marquee cultural organizations and committed to helping others in coming months.
Lower-income Districts Would Benefit From 55 Percent Parcel Tax Threshold, Study Suggests | Edsource Today
Only about one in eight school districts in California have passed a parcel tax, and they predominantly have been wealthier and smaller districts. But if the threshold for passing a parcel tax were dropped from a two-thirds majority to 55 percent, an EdSource analysis suggests more districts with larger enrollments of low-income students would pass them.
Sacramento Kings Draw New Bid From Group Eager To Move Team To Seattle
Ken Belson @ nytimes.com
The fight for ownership of the Sacramento Kings, one of the N.B.A.âs most beleaguered franchises, will take a big step toward resolution Wednesday when the leagueâs owners vote on a recommendation that the team be prohibited from moving to Seattle.
Debate Over Amnesty Looms Over Efforts To Reform Immigration Laws
Cindy Chang @ latimes.com
In 1986, an amnesty law gave legal status and a path to citizenship to unauthorized residents. Today's mass legalization would occur in a much different climate.
Coverage out of immigration debate
Paige Winfield Cunningham @ politico.com
Some amendments to the immigration bill would prolong waiting periods on health care.
Typecast As Heavy, Issa Faces Political Ceiling
Logan Jenkins @ utsandiego.com
Curse me for a fool â and Iâm sure political partisans, both right and left, will â but Iâm beginning to feel sorry for Darrell Issa.
Daniel Borenstein: Prepare For A Long, Hot Summer Of Bart Negotiations
Local @ contracostatimes.com
If history is a guide, a last-minute deal will be put up for a union vote without public vetting. Both sides will emphasize their concessions, but sunshine will eventually show that little or nothing was done to rein in overtime costs and overly generous benefits.