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THE NOONER for April 16, 2013

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THE CASH REPORT:

  • LAO (April 12): Month-to-Date Collections and Refunds: $3.314 billion. (24.9% of budgeted projection)
  • Controller (April 11): $2.465 billion 

After the jump, in light of immigration reform, I look at the potential growth in Latino voters in Assembly districts (and, inferentially, senate and congressional districts). 

As a new bonus for subscribers, I will start making my full data runs available (and more things coming soon). If you are a subscriber, access an Excel or comma-separated version of these data for all districts here. Also available on that page is downloadable voter registration data for all districts as of February 10. If you have ever had to build this spreadsheet from the Secretary of State's downloadable spreadsheet, you know it's a pain.

CD17: Mike Honda Raises $214,000 -- But Ro Khanna Has $1 Million On Hand [Carla Marinucci @ SFChron]

AD62: Betsy Butler is likely to be joined in the race by Gloria Gray and/or LeFrancis Arnold. Betsy has also found her way on to LA City Council candidate (and former Assemblymember) Cindy Montanez's payroll as a campaign consultant, earning $4,000 last month.

AD73: The race for the South Orange County seat held by termed-out Assemblymember Diane Harkey is shaping up. OC Politics Blog lists:

  • Bill Brough, Member, Dana Point City Council [website]
  • Anna Bryson, Trustee, Capistrano Unified School District
  • Jesse Petrilla, Member, Rancho Santa Margarita City Council [website]

AD80: Conservative Democrat Steve Castaneda is touting a SurveyUSA poll showing him within 3 points of Lorena Gonzalez, with 33% of voters undecided. [n=471 likely voters, automated home (94%), internet questionnaire (6%), 4/8/13-4/11/13, MOE +/- 4.6%]

LAW AND ORDER: CA pushes to fine 'independent' campaign committee for supporting lawmaker [Jim Sanders @ SacBee] - "Joaquin Ross and an IE committee he helped run, Respondent Voters for a New California, have agreed to pay a $6,500 fine, according to the Fair Political Practices Commission, which will consider the settlement April 25. . . Ross acknowledged being the conduit for illegally spending $28,892 for three mass mailings in support of Luis Alejo during a primary election for an Assembly seat stretching from Santa Clara to Monterey counties. . . Alejo, who is not accused of wrongdoing, said Monday that he is not aware of the FPPC case or details of the IE's spending. 'I trust the FPPC's investigation was thorough and their judgment will be just,' he said."

WEST COAST: Is Stanford the Harvard of the 21st century? [Will Oremus @ Slate]

 

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**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • Join Mayor Christopher Cabaldon, Councilman Steve Hansen, Supervisor Phil Serna, the Rev. Faith Whitmore and Dr. Claire Pomeroy as they are honored as recipients of Four Freedoms Awards at the Sacramento Stonewall Democrats' 9th Annual Gala, Wednesday, May 15 at the Red Lion Hotel Woodlake Conference Center, Sacramento. Purchase tickets @ www.sacstonewall.org/events/4freedoms2013.

 

LATINO GROWTH UNDER DEMOGRAPHICS, IMMIGRATION REFORM

As the details of the Senate "Group of 8's" immigration deal emerged last night (can you say, burying the story?), it's a good time to think about the long-term consequences of a generation of undocumented immigrants being eligible for citizenship. Of course, eligible immigrants will have to endure a 13-year wait, have a job, pay $2,000 in fines, and have a clean background check. Oh, and the federal gov't will have to meet certain border security benchmarks before the path-to-citizenship is realized. In other words, don't expect a wave of new citizens anytime soon.

Nevertheless, with or without comprehensive immigration reform, the Latino influence on California politics continues to grow. While it's impossible to say exactly how many Latinos are registered to vote (many other races can share surnames), we do know from the 2010 census the numbers of citizen voting age population (CVAP) and overall Latinos resident in each electoral district. 

On a statewide basis, the Latino CVAP was 25.2% at the 2010 census, while the Latino population was 37.6%, for a differential of 12.4%. (There is a slight 0.5% mismatch between these numbers and Census Bureau numbers do to rounding and the effect of averaging.)

The difference between CVAP and Latinos obviously counts two demographics--those who are not yet voting age, and those who are not yet citizens. With comprehensive immigration reform, a sizeable percentage of these will be both citizens and voting age in 15 years. Not fast, but inevitible.

Of course what is not inevitible is that Latinos continue their consistent favorability of the Democratic Party (72% voted for Obama in 2012, 64% voted for Brown in 2010). 

Let's look at a couple of runs of "top 5" in the differential between Latino population and Latino citizen voting age population (CVAP), as of the 2010 census.

 

Top Assembly Districts by Latino Pop/CVAP Differential
DistrictGeographyLatinoCVAP LatinoDifferenceIncumbent PartyIncumbent
AD59 South LA 75.0% 49.9% 25.1% D Reggie Jones-Sawyer
AD69 Santa Ana 76.1% 52.6% 23.5% D Tom Daly
AD30 East Monterey 66.3% 44.0% 22.3% D Luis Alejo
AD64 Carson 62.2% 39.9% 22.3% D Isadore Hall, III
AD32 Kings 68.9% 46.8% 22.1% D Rudy Salas

 

Note that the top GOP districts are the largest agriculture and home-building districts. We would expect that, because of that, a smaller share of the difference between Latino and CVAP Latino will eventually translate to voters, as there are more itinerant workers, some of whom likely have returned to their home country because of the economy in the recent years.

 

Top Rep Assembly Districts by Latino Pop/CVAP Differential
DistrictGeographyLatinoCVAP LatinoDifferenceIncumbent PartyIncumbent
AD26 Tulare 57.7% 36.7% 21.0% R Connie Conway
AD35 San Luis Obispo 35.7% 17.9% 17.8% R K.H. Achadjian
AD44 Ventura Co 42.5% 24.8% 17.7% R Jeff Gorell
AD75 Escondido 35.4% 18.2% 17.3% R Marie Waldron
AD60 Corona 52.5% 35.6% 16.9% R Eric Linder

   

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California Senate Calls On Congress To Change Immigration Laws
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
A watered-down resolution calling for Congress to "repair" the nation's "historically broken" immigration laws won bipartisan support by the state Senate on Monday.

Jerry Brown Says Environmental Law Overhaul Unlikely For Now
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
SHENZHEN, China - Gov. Jerry Brown acknowledged Tuesday he likely won't be able to overhaul California's signature environmental law in the current legislative session, citing overwhelming opposition from fellow Democrats.

Bill Lockyer Shows The Problem Of Term Limits :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
Lockyer, a 71-year-old Hayward Democrat, was first elected to the Assembly in 1973 and has stayed in one public office or another ever since, despite a steady onslaught of voter-backed rules designed to sweep him and all other veteran politicians from Sacramento.

Proposed Tax On Bullets Sidelined For More Study
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
A bill that would create a nickel-per-bullet tax to pay for mental health programs aimed at reducing gun violence hit a roadblock in a legislative committee Monday.

California Senate Gets Dose Of Realism
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
On Monday, however, members of the state Senate heard a cogent synopsis of California's demographic and economic present and its likely future that they should take to heart. Simply put, California Lutheran University economist Bill Watkins told the Senate, California's once-vigorous population growth has slowed to a crawl, the state's population is likely to begin dropping in the next couple of decades due to out-migration and a dropping birthrate, and it's mostly losing middle-class families "because of a lack of opportunity."

Schwarzenegger Plans Immigration Forum As D.C. Leaders Debate Plan
Seema Mehta @
latimes.com
As a bipartisan group of leaders in Washington prepare to unveil a landmark immigration bill , former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is planning to host a forum at USC focused on the matter that features significant players in the debate.

California Pension May Ask For 50% Boost To Close Gap
Michael B. Marois @
bloomberg.com
The Sacramento-based pension, known as Calpers, is about 26 percent short of meeting its long-term commitments. The state and cities contributed $7.8 billion in the last fiscal year, almost four times more than a decade earlier.

Lawmaker withdraws bill to open CalPERS mailing list to unions
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
A bill that would have let unions and retiree groups exploit CalPERS' annuitant mailing list for marketing purposes has died by the author's own hand.

Brown: CEQA changes dead, prison fight looms
news10.net
Gov. Jerry Brown offered pessimism Tuesday about changes to California's key environmental law and vowed to take his prison fight with federal judges to the court of public opinion.

NFL Players Speak Out Against Perea's Workers Comp Bill
Laurel Rosenhall @
blogs.sacbee.com
Legislation that seeks to limit the ability of professional athletes in other states to file workers compensation claims in California is meeting push back from the National Football League Players Association, which held a press conference on the Capitol steps today denouncing Assembly Bill 1309.

Chinese Markets Are A Work In Progress For California Agribusiness - Capitol And California - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
A message welcoming Gov. Jerry Brown's trade mission to China lights up the Citibank building in Shanghai on Saturday, April 13, 2013.

Senators Set to Unveil Immigration Bill
Julia Preston @
nytimes.com
After tough negotiations, a bipartisan group of eight senators plans to introduce a proposal on Tuesday that contains a 13-year pathway to citizenship for those here illegally.

Lawmaker Proposes Office To Investigate Possible Gas-price Fixing
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
One California lawmaker wants to give the public a place to contact with complaints of price manipulation or other shenanigans.

Wendy Greuel seeks $175 million in savings in L.A. budget
David Zahniser @
latimes.com
The controller says her budget would target public employee health benefits and worker comp outlays as well as changing the way the city's pension board invests.

Mass. candidates suspend campaigns
James Hohmann @
politico.com
Candidates running for Senate suspended their campaigns in the wake of Boston Marathon explosions.

UC Expected To Launch Wide Search For New President
Larry Gordon @
latimes.com
Experts predict the search will concentrate on similar universities elsewhere, government and business.

Sen. Padilla Pushes Plastic Bag Ban, Says Business On Board
Jeremy B. White @
blogs.sacbee.com
Stores across California would need to ditch single-use plastic bags under legislation authored by Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Los Angeles, that has drawn some interest from a key business lobby.

Calif. attorney general seeks drug database funds
utsandiego.com
Attorney General Kamala Harris is promoting legislation that would impose fees on medical care providers, drug manufacturers and health insurance plans so California can continue operating its substance-abuse tracking system.

Controversial Bills To Repeal Fire Fee Pass Assembly Committee
Melody Gutierrez @
blogs.sacbee.com
Two Republican-backed measures to repeal a fire prevention fee levied on some rural California residents cleared an Assembly committee Monday.

Silicon Valley Dem Money Race : Mike Honda Raises $214,000 — But Ro Khanna Has $1 Million On Hand
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
Silicon Valley Dem money race : Mike Honda raises $214,000 — but Ro Khanna has $1 million on hand

Sacramento Kings Bidder Ranadive Plans 'Global Brand' For Team
Dale Kasler, Ryan Lillis, and Tony Bizjak @
sacbee.com
The Sacramento Kings won't be a small-market team anymore if Vivek Ranadive has his way.

CalPERS opposes gun manufacturer-divestment bill
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
CalPERS' Investment Committee sent a message to lawmakers this morning that the fund opposes a bill requiring it dump its gun manufacturing holdings unless the weapons are made for U.S. military purposes only.

Senate immigration bill could reshape California
mercurynews.com
Advocates for and against immigration share their perspectives on how bipartisan U.S. Senate plan could affect the Bay Area.