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THE NOONER for April 10, 2013

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THE CASH REPORT:

  • LAO (April 9): Month-to-Date Collections and Refunds: $1.59 billion. (12% of budgeted projection)
  • Controller (April 8): $1.28 billion 


Good morning from SMurF, where I'm catching a flight shortly to the Inland Empire, which is fitting giving that Jim Miller is staging an Occupy of The Nooner today:

CD31: Former congressman talks of running in 31st Congressional District [Jim Miller @ PE] - "The Fontana Democrat announced in January that he would seek a rematch against Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod, D-Chino, the woman who beat him in the redrawn 35th Congressional District last November. In recent days, though, Baca has told people that he might instead run for the seat just to the north: San Bernardino County’s 31st Congressional District."

CD36: Nestande opening committee [Jim Miller @ PE] - "Nestande has not formally announced his candidacy for the 36th Congressional District. But the federal committee’s creation all but confirms months of exectation that the Palm Desert Republican will take on Rep. Raul Ruiz, D-Palm Desert, in 19 months."

CAUSE TO CELEBRATE: Inland activists head to capital for convention [Jim Miller @ PE] - "As party activists convene this weekend in Sacramento for the first time since the November election, Riverside County figures prominently in California Democrats’ victory lap."

ALL CLEAR: Walters cleared in conflict investigation [Brian Joseph @ OCR] - "Orange County state Sen. Mimi Walters has been cleared of wrongdoing in a conflict-of-interest probe into phone calls made by her office on behalf of a company once co-owned by her husband."

Also in the Inland Empire are two pick-up targets for Democrats--AD40 and AD60. In San Bernardino's AD40, two-term Republican Assemblymember Mike Morell eked out a victory by 1,018 votes among nearly 130,000 cast over Democrat Russ Warner.  Had Democrats had a candidate in CD31 (instead of Bob Dutton v. Gary Miller), Democrat Russ Warner would have very likely won the seat.

In AD60, which primarily covers Corona and Norco, Republican Eric Linder beat Democrat Jose Perez by 4,233 votes out of 117,000 cast. Perez spent no money, while Linder spent $211k.

The long-term trend in the Inland Empire is districts switching from Republican to Democrat. AD40 went from a tie of 37.9% for Democrats and Republicans last May to a 1.6% advantage for Democrats (at 38.3%). Republicans still have a 4.6% advantage in AD60 at 40.4%, although the independents in the district (8.3%) are clearly breaking Dem. 

Obviously, 2012 was a near-perfect election year for Democrats, and 2014 will not be as friendly. However, California Republican Party chairman Jim Brulte (who lives in Democratic-held AD47 sitting between AD40 and AD60), has to know that the future of the party lies in the Central Valley and Inland Empire. Defending these seats, which will be very vulnerable in 2016, will be key to demonstrating the party's relevence moving forward.

Okay, cattle call time...

 

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