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THE NOONER for April 4, 2013

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IT'S BACK: The State Controller's daily tracker of personal income tax receipts is live. The question budget geeks are looking to answer is how much of the $4.8 billion in above-projected revenue is real and not just an effect of accelerated payments consequent to the federal tax law uncertainty at the end of the 2012 tax year. Of the $4.8b, $4.5b is from personal income tax. During the month of April, $12.7b of the annual $62.8b. (20.3%) in PIT revenues are projected to come into the state's coffers.

Aside from just identifying the total amount of revenues exceeding budgetary projections in the current year, Dept of Finance will be digging in to identify which are from one-time versus ongoing occurences. Because of the uncertainty of high-income and capital gains rates associated with the end-of-year "fiscal cliff," it's likely that a significant portion of the above-budget revenues are from PIT paid on stock options and capital gains. Only a portion of these can be expected to repeat in the budget year (2013-14). Meanwhile, those that are recurring (salary/wages) PIT revenues can be anticipated to repeat.

That was the lesson of the 2000-2001 debacle, which is the root of the decade-long budget problem faced by the state. The state does a far better job separating the one-time and recurring revenue than it did leading up to 2000, but it's still difficult to exactly peg.

CD26: Tony Strickland is in again against Julia Brownley. [Timm Herdt @ VC Star] - "The political dynamics of a 2014 campaign would be somewhat different from last year's race, with factors that could potentially work to each candidate's advantage. . . Strickland likely would benefit by a voter turnout that is typically smaller than the turnout in presidential election years, and smaller turnout often favors Republican candidates. In addition, the party of the incumbent president typically loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. Brownley, who previously represented only about one-sixth of the district as a state legislator and entered the 2012 campaign late, will start the 2014 campaign much better known as an incumbent member of Congress. In addition, she won’t be hampered by a late start and likely will not have to contend with a contested primary race, as she did last year."

GLENDALE: Glendale council candidate Zareh Sinanyan, accused of posting slurs, among top finishers [Mariecar Mendoza @ LADN] - Zareh "Sinanyan had been accused of posting comments on YouTube and Facebook that included slurs against gays, Muslims and various ethnic groups that dated back five years. In a March 12 appearance before the council, he said the comments did not reflect his beliefs, but council members were frustrated that he would not flatly deny writing the posts. Finishing ahead of Sinanyan on Tuesday in the top two slots were incumbent council members Ara Najarian and Laura Friedman, who seemed to have secured their return with 8,615 and 6,888 votes respectively."

Just another municipal at-large, low-turnout, obscurely timed election...

UNDER THE DOME:

SD16/SD14: - Yes, I switched the districts yet again. The special to fill Michael Rubio's old seat is for the "old" SD16, which will become the "new" SD14 in 2014.

THE IRON ORANGE CURTAIN: All Orange County Register articles are now behind a paywall that costs $7/week to subscribe to, the strictest of all the paywalls, and more expensive than the New York Times.

That's 12 more paid subscribers I need if you care to read OCR's stories...

RUN BIZ LIKE GOV'T! New Apple campus $2 billion over budget, report says [Chris O'Brien @ LAT]

HYPOCRISY: The Politicians Who Supported DOMA Who Had Affairs [Andrew Kaczynski @ BuzzFeed] - Bill Clinton, Henry Hyde, Newt Gingrich, Gary Condit and more...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY! Brian DeBlonk 

 

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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Obama In San Francisco To Raise Funds
Carla Marinucci and Drew Joseph @
sfgate.com
President Obama visited San Francisco Wednesday for a pair of campaign fundraisers in the Sea Cliff and Pacific Heights neighborhoods that were expected to raise millions of dollars for House Democrats.

SS Lawmakers Support Teacher Dismissal Bill
Michael Gardner @
utsandiego.com
Despite reservations over some details, two San Diego County lawmakers lined up with the rest of the Assembly Education Committee Wednesday to unanimously pass legislation that would make it simpler to fire teachers accused of sex crimes against children and other serious offenses.

Bill Would Allow 15-year-olds To Pre-register To Vote
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- Californians as young as 15 would be able to file papers enabling them to vote in elections as soon as they turn 18 under legislation endorsed this week by a state Senate Committee.

Sen. Feinstein Blames Nra On Gun Control - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Sen. Dianne Feinstein on Wednesday blamed the National Rifle Association and partisan gridlock for blocking her efforts to rein in assault weapons, and she vowed to keep pressing for a full Senate vote on the issue. "People are afraid that the NRA will come into their state with $5 million - in Arkansas, or North Dakota or Montana - and defeat them," she told reporters, following a far-ranging talk at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. Feinstein also promised a renewed fight on global warming, saying she would introduce a bill to slap a $10 fee on carbon dioxide emissions. The senator argued that America would be safer without easy access to assault weapons or high-capacity ammunition clips. Feinstein's proposed bans on both items were dropped last month from the Senate's gun control legislation, although she says she has been assured that the bans will be put to a Senate vote in one way or another. On another public safety matter, she warned against quickly expanding the use of drone aircraft for police work.

Glendale Council Candidate Zareh Sinanyan, Accused Of Posting Slurs, Among Top Finishers
Mariecar Mendoza @
dailynews.com
A controversial candidate who was accused of posting racist comments online may have received enough votes to win a seat on the Glendale City Council in Tuesday's election, according to results posted Wednesday.

CA Assembly Panel Approves Teacher Dismissal Bill
Jeremy B. White @
blogs.sacbee.com
It could become easier to fire a teacher in California: the Assembly Education Committee voted 7-0 on Wednesday to approve a bill by Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, D-Alamo, which would streamline the process for jettisoning incompetent or abusive educators.

Quan Says Oakland Will Have To Return Millions In Redevelopment Funds
Matthew Artz @
insidebayarea.com
Faced with a $58 million deficit in 2011, Oakland sold several properties -- most notably the shuttered Henry J. Kaiser Convention Center -- to its redevelopment agency.

State Flood Risk High, Coordination Low - Sfgate
sfgate.com
California may be known for its vulnerability to earthquakes and wildfires, but the state also faces the risk of devastating floods, according to a report being released Wednesday by the state Department of Water Resources and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The report, the most comprehensive statewide study of flooding ever conducted, found that 7.3 million Californians - 19 percent of the state's population - including more than 1 million in the Bay Area, are exposed to significant risk of being affected by floods. According to the report, the entire state is at risk of flooding. Conduct regional risk assessments to better understand statewide risks; boost public knowledge of flood risks; increase funding for flood preparedness, response and recovery; promote land-use planning that reduces flood dangers; approach flood management projects with a regional or statewide rather than local focus; increase collaboration among agencies planning and funding flood control; and establish adequate and stable ways of funding flood management. Elected and appointed officials on all levels will need to act to achieve both short-term goals such as limiting development in floodplains and educating the public on flood risks, and long-term achievements like realigning or consolidating government agencies and developing a sufficient and consistent funding source, the report concludes.

California teacher discipline bill clears committee with union support
sacbee.com
It could become easier to fire a teacher in California: The Assembly Education Committee voted 7-0 Wednesday to approve a bill that would streamline the process for jettisoning incompetent or abusive educators.

Stanford drops online-education initiative to join similar offering from Harvard and MIT
mercurynews.com
Stanford University announced Wednesday that it is joining an initiative co-founded by Harvard and MIT to develop a computer system that allows colleges to offer free online courses, a collaboration that school officials said would benefit both educators and students around the globe.

Ethics Agency Launches Probe Of Environmental Regulator
Michael J. Mishak @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- The state's ethics agency is investigating whether one of California's top environmental regulators violated conflict-of-interest laws by regulating companies in which she owns stock.

Jerry Brown details China trip, predicts 'billions' in investment
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
in California, as Brown's office released an itinerary of lunches, receptions, forums and agreement-signing events for the governor while abroad.

Wendy Greuel And Eric Garcetti Lay Out Ideas For Fiscal Change
Seema Mehta and Catherine Saillant @
latimes.com
Both L.A. mayoral candidates Wendy Greuel and Eric Garcetti suggest changes are needed to the city's pension systems.

President Barack Obama visits Bay Area after making case for tougher gun laws
Mike Rosenberg, Elizabeth Devitt and Jessica Shugart @
mercurynews.com
President Barack Obama took to a lectern in Denver to make his case for tougher federal gun laws Wednesday with the backdrop of a Western state that focused the nation's attention on a mass shooting last year and took significant legislative steps on guns this year.

Prisons, Realignment And The California Rehab Racket
Raheem F. Hosseini @
newsreview.com
California realigned its prison system more than two years ago, but rehabilitation is still out of whack

Made In California :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
Our friends at Small Business California sponsored a bill carried by Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner to create a Made in California label to encourage consumer product awareness and the purchasing of goods made in the state. The bill, SB 12, passed its Senate committee unanimously and why not? Anyone promoting business in this state should be proud of a California label.

Former GOP Sen. Tony Strickland Files For House Seat Rematch
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Former state Sen. Tony Strickland is readying a second run against Democrat Julia Brownley in a Southern California congressional seat.

Explaining the Senate's Surge in Support for Same-sex Marriage
NATE SILVER @
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
So many senators are declaring their support for same-sex marriage that I’ve regularly had to check my Twitter feed while working on this article, lest I miss any announcements. As Dylan Matthews of The Washington Post has detailed, 50 senators have now stated their backing for same-sex marriage, up from only 16 in 2010 and eight in 2008.

Sacramento's Kings Bidders Confident After NBA Presentation
Tony Bizjak, Ryan Lillis, and Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
Describing the Sacramento Kings saga as too complicated to settle in a day, NBA Commissioner David Stern said Wednesday that the league needs "a lot more data and information" before it can decide whether the team moves to Seattle or stays put.

Connecticut governor signs sweeping gun limits into law
Susan Haigh @
mercurynews.com
Alongside family members of some of the victims of the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, Gov. Dannel P. Malloy signed the bill hours after the General Assembly approved the measure to give the state some of the toughest gun laws in the country.

3 guilty in Dallas-area, Houston health care fraud
utsandiego.com
Three more people have been convicted in a nearly $3 million health care fraud case involving Houston and Dallas-area companies.

San Bernardino Political Watchdog Sam Clauder Files $7.5 Million Claim Against County
sbsun.com
Related story: San Bernardino political activist vindicated on child porn charge, record ordered destroyed