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THE NOONER for February 28, 2013

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Good morning. Today I bid farewell to a work colleague I have had the honor of learning from, working with, and being a friend of for 18 years. Bonnie Slosson, thank you for your 29 years of service to the Community College League and our predecessor organization.

Meanwhile, I'm heading off to Portland to take my mom out to dinner for her birthday. 

A few of you have reported that you are not getting the Nooner in your e-mail box and have resorted to reading it online. The problem is one extortionist blacklist (out of dozens) that flagged my server as spam and will remove that inaccurate flag in four weeks, unless I pay them $133 to "expedite" the request. Unfortunately, it appears that Network Solutions is using that blacklist to identify malicious servers. The Nooner is getting through to Gmail and 95% of addresses just fine...

MY FULL TARGET LIST

So, as I was on the road last week with even less time to put together The Nooner than I normally do, I threw out the preliminary hot list of districts for 2014. Also, the preliminary ratings are based on an uncertain field with unclear fundraising. In an off-cycle election, the new SD34 is a tough district for Democrats. However, if Jose Solorio turns in strong fundraising numbers and the GOP doesn't get behind one candidate, that could be a toss-up. Similarly, CD31 is not a toss-up if neither Pete Aguilar nor Joe Baca run, but I'm betting one of them will. And, SD12 is very close to being a Toss-Up, depending on the fundraising numbers turned in by challengers and allied Democrats. It's very early folks...

I'm currently looking to craft a turnout model for 2014, with thanks to PoliticalData.com and Paul Mitchell for some data, but we're probably looking at a turnout mix of 45% D, 34% R, 19% NPP. From 2010, that's D+0, R-1, and NPP+2. Young people (those under 40) are surging NPP, Reps are dropping and Dems are holding constant. The bigger concern for the GOP is that the NPPs seem to be younger and more liberal, or perhaps more politically accurate, more libertarian.

And, of course, this is only the inter-party hot list. The fun will be found in the intra-party hotlist of the 29 open seats. We'll get to that...

Congress:

  • CD03 (John Garamendi, incumbent D) - Leans D - Kim Vann likely challenger
  • CD07 (Ami Bera, incumbent D) - Leans D - Elizabeth Emken possible challenger
  • CD26 (Julia Brownley, incumbent D) -
  • CD31 (Gary Miller, incumbent R) - Toss Up - Pete Aguilar or Joe Baca likely challenger
  • CD36 (Raul Ruiz, incumbent D) - Toss Up - Brian Nestande likely challenger
  • CD52 (Scott Peters, incumbent D) - Toss Up - Brian Bilbray possible challenger

State Senate:

  • SD12 (Anthony Cannella, incumbent R) - Leans R - Tom Hallinan likely challenger
  • SD14 (Michael Rubio seat, open) - Leans D - incumbent to be elected in 2013 special
  • SD34 (Lou Correa seat, open) - Leans R - wide open with lots of candidates

State Assembly:

  • AD36 (Steve Fox, incumbent D) - Leans R - Ron Smith possible challenger
  • AD44 (Jeff Gorell, incumbent R) - Leans R - David Cruz Thayne possible challenger
  • AD65 (Sharon Quirk-Silva, incumbent D) - Toss Up - several likely GOP challengers

RUBIO: Oil exec involved with former Sen. Michael Rubio in real estate deals [Torey Van Oot @ SacBee]

I'm stuck on this story, and I don't know Rubio. He short-sold his house, damaging his credit, and then over-extended himself on an above-market-rate mortgage for a house with 4 fireplaces and a swimming pool. Wow. Is there any more "common-person" in politics? 

Dude should be resigning from the senate, while running for Pope.

OLD SD14/NEW SD16: Will termed-out Assembly Republican Leader Connie Conway move to run in Rubio's SD14? She lives in Tulare, which is in the old SD18 and the new SD16. She can stay in her current district, and be in both the old SD14 and new SD16 if she can find a residence in Dinuba, Orosi, or a historically significant place, which is the subject of today's trivia question, found below.

I think we might know who could help with Conway's filing fees...

PROP 8: Today is the deadline to submit amici curiae briefs on Prop. 8 in the case before the Supreme Court, Hollingsworth v. Perry. The Obama Administration hasn't submitted yet but many observers believe will later today, and Kamala Harris submitted a brief yesterday. The oral argument is scheduled for March 26.

On cue, Field Poll releases results today finding 61% of California voters now support same-sex marriage while 32% disapprove. That's a 10% increase in support from 2010 and a doubling since 1985.

WHO'S YOUR DADDY? Who Will Buy the Los Angeles Times? [Jim Romanesko]

GOD BLESS: America exports Honey Boo Boo.

 

YESTERDAY'S TRIVIA: Which four California counties (and political subdivisions within) are required to get federal pre-clearance under the Voting Rights Act? 

YESTERDAY'S ANSWER: The "perfect" answer was "Scott, your question is wrong." There are now three counties (and political subdivisions within) that are required to get preclearence: Kings, Monterey, and Yuba. Until last year, Merced was the fourth.

The primary reason is that these four counties "appeared" to have discriminatory election processes because in the 1970s, turnout of eligible voters fell below 50%. However, these counties had large military bases that inflated census population, but whose residents frequently voted in their home states. Two of the four military bases--Castle in Merced and Fort Ord in Monterey--are now closed, while Naval Air Station Lemoore in Kings and Beale in Yuba remain open.

TODAY'S TRIVIA: Which historically significant (and why) census-designated place in Tulare County founded and named after an Army Lieutenant Colonel as a quasi-utopia could Connie Conway move to and be in the old SD14 and new SD16?  

 

--adblock-- 

 

**CLASSIFIEDS**

  • Veteran lobbyist Ray LeBov has set his next introductory "Legislative Process / Lobbying 101" and advanced "Lobbying 201" seminars for March 21-22 respectively. $250 each. More info or registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.

  • Join Capitol Network for its 30th Anniversary Celebration on Monday, March 11 from 5:30 – 7:30 pm at The Park Ultra Lounge! For more information go to: www.capitol-network.org. Sponsorship opportunities are available.

  • Future of California Elections: Deputy Director | Coordinator: Sacramento, elections policy experience preferred

  • Community College League of California: Legislative Advocate [Full-time, Sacramento, 3+ years experience] DEADLINE MARCH 13

  • $125,000 Irvine Leadership Awards: Do you know an innovative, effective leader who is improving California's future? Nominate him or her for a 2014 James Irvine Foundation Leadership Award at irvine.org/leadership/. Deadline: April 5, 2013.

  • ADD YOUR CLASSIFIED: e-mail Scott to add your 1-2 line classified ad for $25/week for and a link (or free hosted page) to reach the Nooner's awesome subscribers

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown's School Finance Plan Gets First Legislative Review
Anthony York @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- State lawmakers will take their first official look at Gov. Jerry Brown ’s plan to overhaul the state’s public school financing system at a Sacramento hearing on Thursday.

L.A. Mayoral Candidates Discuss Ways To Improve Schools At Education Summit
Barbara Jones @
dailynews.com
The five candidates running to succeed Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa each vowed Wednesday to continue his commitment to public education, along with his strong support of LAUSD Superintendent John Deasy and vision for reform.

Voters Weren't Told About Plan To Redistribute Education Money
George Skelton @
latimes.com
Gov. Jerry Brown wants to use Prop. 30 revenues to help poorer students. It's a laudable goal but shouldn't come at the expense of more prosperous school districts.

California Ag Urges U.S. Supreme Court To Reject Proposition 8 - Bee Capitol & California - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Attorney General Kamala Harris wants the U.S. Supreme Court to reject California's anti-gay marriage Proposition 8 and give gay couples the "respect and dignity to which they are entitled."

California Appellate Court Dismisses School Budget Challenge
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
In the ongoing tussle over budget rules, a state appellate court has dismissed a challenge from school groups who said California leaders had illegally manipulated the state constitution when they wrote the 2011-12 budget.

Another Suitor Emerges For The Sacramento Kings - Kings/nba - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Supporters of a new downtown arena, wearing matching T-shirts, applaud at Tuesday's City Council meeting. The council voted to formally enter negotiations with a group seeking to buy the Kings and keep them in Sacramento. Also, money was approved for consultants and attorneys.

Los Angeles Parents Powerless As Candidates Ignore Abuse - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com
None of the 11 candidates for the board that oversees the second-largest U.S. school system mentioned the abuse allegations in a League of Women Voters survey. Four out of five candidates for mayor, a job with no formal power over public schools, have spoken little of it.

Key Senate Panel To Consider Medi-cal Expansion
Michael J. Mishak @
latimes.com
A key Senate panel will consider legislation that would dramatically expand Medi-Cal, the state's public insurance program for the poor.

State Political Watchdog Agency Seeks To Expand Searchable Online Conflict Of Interest Database
Tracy Seipel @
mercurynews.com
The Fair Political Practices Commission will propose Thursday expanding a pilot program it introduced on its website last fall that allows voters to more easily search statements of economic interest filed by state judges to include similar statements filed by all California public officials.

Bloomberg Goes to Washington to Push Gun Laws, but Senate Has Other Ideas
nytimes.com
Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg met with Vice President Joseph R. Biden and several senators to discuss gun violence, but a Senate hearing underscored the difficult path gun-control legislation faces.

Viewpoints Online Extra: Woodland-Davis project is city's best chance for clean water
sacbee.com
On Tuesday, March 5, all ballots are due to the Yolo County elections office for a "yea" or "nay" on Measure I – a binding vote on whether or not Davis should proceed with a joint regional surface water supply project with Woodland. What's the plan? Draw new surface water from the Sacramento River north of I-5's overcrossing, treat it, and use it as our primary source of water.

California Lawmakers Propose Rules, Tax Breaks For Drone Aircraft
latimes.com
Anticipating the day when drones will be a routine sight in California skies, lawmakers have proposed tax breaks to encourage companies to build the unmanned aircraft in this state and restrictions to protect the public from invasions of privacy.

Same-sex marriage: Field Poll finds California voters now strongly support gay marriage
Howard Mintz @
mercurynews.com
By a 2-1 ratio, Californians back the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry, as attitudes continue to rapidly shift on same-sex marriage.

AM Alert
Jeremy B. White @
blogs.sacbee.com
California voters have reversed their views on same-sex marriage since 1977, the first year that the Field Poll conducted a survey on the subject.

Del Mar superintendent proposes budget cuts
utsandiego.com
Del Mar Union School District Superintendent proposes budget cuts for next school year.

California Files Anti-prop. 8 Brief With Supreme Court
blogs.sacbee.com


Two L.A. Mayoral Candidates Unlikely Backers Of Business Tax Cut
James Rainey @
latimes.com
Liberal Democrats Wendy Greuel, the city's controller, and Councilman Eric Garcetti advocate ending the tax on businesses' gross receipts to boost the economy.

Apple's iTunes U surpasses 1 billion downloads as online education takes off
Jeremy C. Owens @
mercurynews.com
Apple announced Thursday that its iTunes U offering has surpassed 1 billion downloads, as online education becomes more accepted nationwide at institutes of higher learning.

House to vote on two versions of Violence Against Women measure
Wes Venteicher @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON – House Republican leaders failed to rally support for their version of the Violence Against Women Act, so they decided to bring two versions of the legislation to a vote Thursday: the House bill and a Senate-passed measure favored by President Obama.

Public records law faces budget ax
utsandiego.com
Jerry Brown's spending plan won't fund local government responses to document requests.

California Lawmakers Bite Into Meaty Issue Of Hot Dogs
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
A decades-old Capitol joke is that crafting legislation is a lot like making sausage.

Republican lawmaker: Obama should back off immigration reform
Lisa Mascaro @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- With President Obama making immigration reform a top priority, the Republican chairman of the House Judiciary Committee has just one bit of advice: Stay away.