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THE NOONER for December 6, 2012

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After the jump...the candidate fields in LA-LA land...

Good morning! As you're reading this, my plane should be landing in Ontario. It'll be my opportunity to speak tonight on Mark Takano's behalf in my community college role. I think I also have to apologize for telling WaPo's Aaron Blake last August that Riverside had neither a good bench nor campaign apparatus. That said, it is true that the party apparatus was weak before this year, and having someone jump from community college trustee to member of Congress is extraordinarily rare. 

Putting partisanship aside, it is nice to see another Japanese-American elected to Congress to carry on the legacy of greats Robert Matsui and Norman Mineta. He joins Sacramento-area congresswoman Doris Matsui, the wife of the late Robert. Doris was born in an internment camp during World War II, and Robert and Mineta both spent their childhoods in internment camp, as did my wife's family. Takano becomes the first elected to Congress who was born after World War II to parents who were interned and only know it as a family legacy.

GUESSING GAME: Last night I get a text from Paul Mitchell "Wanna guess the turnout of OC online reg?" After first typing 80%, I changed it to 82%, and sent it. His response "Uhm...how did you know that?" I wish I had that kind of luck with my picks in the Nooner election contest!

PDI has only received two counties to process, but this is one of the key data points lots of people are interested in. We have a hypothesis that online registrants were far more engaged than the traditional paper registrants. After all, no paid circulator or cute boy or girl from College Republicans or College Democrats was pressuring them to register. Instead, 614,501 Californians registered for the first time online in the final 45 days before the election by going to a state website and registering. 

In Orange County, the hypothesis seems to be proving true. OC average turnout was 67.3%, but 82% of those who registered online in the final month before the October 22 close of registration turned out to vote. Oh, and in many cases, these voters were not on walk/phone lists or even the voter rolls on election day. This partially explains the large number of provisional ballots.

I told a couple of consultants and candidates down the stretch that the best use of candidate and surrogate time was calling new 18-29yo NPP online registereds (probably a universe of around 1,000 in an Assembly district). A personal call (god forbid, no robocalls) with the following script could be a voter for the candidate for life:

"Hi, I'm calling for Paul. My name is Scott Lay and I'm running for the State Assembly. I just wanted to call to personally thank you for registering to vote. Paul, I hope I can have your vote on November 6. Regardless of who you are voting for, if I am elected, I hope I hear from you about how I can better serve our community. My website is scottlay.com and my personal e-mail address is scott@scottlay.com. Again, thank you again Paul for registering and I hope I can have your vote on November 6."

25-second script+15 seconds for dial time x 1,000 calls = 11 hours of calling time. One hour per day during the last 11 days=priceless and lasting. And, each successful call could get 3-5 peer/family votes with a multiplier effect.

Granted, only one state race was decided by fewer than 1,000 votes, but the races will be much closer in 2014, and those votes could be decisive. You can only make this first-time voter contact once. It's just like selling a shaving cream brand to a teenager.

AD80: With Ben Hueso seemingly certain to take SD40 (Juan Vargas), San Diego and Imperial Counties Labor Council exec Lorena Gonzalez announces her AD80 candidacy with the backing of Hueso, Vargas and Mayor Bob Filner.

POLL POSITION: PPIC is out with a poll looking at Californians and their attitudes toward government. In it, there are clear signs that voters are feeling modestly more optimistic.

Job Approval

Jerry Brown:

  • Approve: 48% (+6% from October)
  • Disapprove: 35% (-2%)

Legislature

  • Approve: 34% (+6%)
  • Disapprove: 56% (-4%)

Optimism

CA - right direction/wrong direction

  • Right direction: 44% (+5%)
  • Wrong direction: 50% (-3%)
  • Don't know: 6%

Economic conditions over next 12 months

  • Good times: 41% (+4%)
  • Bad times: 50% (-3%)
  • Don't know 9%

CA better place to live in 2025 or worse place?

  • Better place: 42%
  • Worse place: 28%
  • No change: 23%
  • Don't know: 8%

Budget Generally

Does passage of Proposition 30 make you more optimistic about the state's budget position?

  • More optimistic: 46%
  • More pessimistic: 23%
  • Does not change the way I feel: 28%
  • Don't know: 3%

Taxes/services . . . would rather pay:

  • Higher taxes and more services: 55%
  • Lower taxes and fewer services: 40%
  • Don't know: 6%

(note...interesting that Proposition 30's final "yes" number looks to be 55.3%)

Changes to Taxation/Spending

How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a simple majority vote for the state legislature to pass state taxes?

  • Good idea: 51%
  • Bad idea: 43%
  • Don't know: 6%

How about requiring any major new or expanded state programs or tax reductions identify a specific funding source?

  • Good idea: 79%
  • Bad idea: 13%
  • Don't know: 8%

How about repacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55-percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes?

  • Good idea: 54%
  • Bad idea: 39%
  • Don't know: 6%

Willingness to Increase Taxes

How about extending the state sales tax to services that are currently not taxed?

  • Favor: 29%
  • Oppose: 65%
  • Don't know: 6%

How about increasing the vehicle license fee?

  • Favor: 20%
  • Oppose: 79%
  • Don't know: 1%

Proposition 13 - good thing for California or bad thing?

  • Mostly a good thing: 60%
  • Mostly a bad thing: 31%
  • Mixed: 1% (volunteered)
  • Don't know: 7%

Proposition 13 - good effect or bad effect on local government services?

  • Good effect: 29%
  • Bad effect: 25%
  • No effect: 36%
  • Don't know: 10%

Proposition 13 - favor or oppose taxing commercial properties at market rate (split roll)?

  • Favor: 57%
  • Oppose: 36%
  • Don't know: 7%

Other Takeaways

  • 74% believe access to CA public colleges and universities is big (43%) or somewhat (31%) of a problem
  • 88% believe affordability at CA public colleges and universities is big (65%) or somewhat (23%) of a problem
  • 87% believe overall budget situation at CA public colleges and universities is big (64%) or somewhat (23% of a problem
  • 59% believe supply of water is big (31%) or somewhat (28%) of a problem

 

[PPIC, n=2,001, November 13-20, 2012 English/Spanish, +/- 3.5%]

LUNCH: Oh, so this is to blame . . .

 

** CLASSIFIEDS**

 

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Los Angeles candidate filings for March 5, 2013 municipal election

Mayor

  • Carlton Dole (pending signature validation)
  • Yehuda "YJ" Draiman
  • Eric Garcetti
  • Wendy Greuel
  • Jenney Horst (pending signature validation)
  • Kevin James
  • Addie Miller
  • Jan Perry
  • Emanuel Alberto Pleitez
  • Norton Sandler

City Attorney

  • Mike Feuer
  • Carmen "Nuch" Trutanich
  • Greg Smith
  • Noel Weiss (pending signature validation)

Controller

  • Jeff Bornstein
  • Cary Brazeman
  • Ron Galperin
  • Analilia Joya (pending signature validation)
  • Ankur Patel (pending signature validation)
  • Dennis P. Zine

City Council, District 1

  • Gilbert Cedillo
  • Jose A. Gardea
  • William "Rodriguez" Morrison (pending signature validation)
  • Jesse Rosas

City Council, District 3

  • Elizabeth Badger
  • Bob Blumenfield
  • Cary T. Iaccino
  • Matt Jackson (pending signature validation)
  • Joyce J. Pearson (pending signature validation)
  • Steven E. Presberg (pending signature validation)
  • Scott Silverstein (pending signature validation)

City Council, District 5

  • Paul Koretz
  • Mark Matthew Herd (pending signature validation)

City Council, District 7

  • Jesse David Barron (pending signature validation)
  • Nicole Chase (pending signature validation)
  • Krystee Clark (pending signature validation)
  • Felipe Fuentes

City Council, District 9

  • Manuel "Manny" Aldana (pending signature validation)
  • Gerald Allan Busch (pending signature validation)
  • Justin Allen Clayton (pending signature validation)
  • Ana Cubas
  • Mike Davis (pending signature validation)
  • Terry Hara
  • Sherita J. Herring (pending signature validation)
  • Curren D. Price, Jr.
  • David Roberts

City Council, District 11

  • Odysseus Bostick
  • Mike Bonin
  • Mark Darius Frank (pending signature validation)
  • Tina Hess (pending signature validation)
  • Frederick Sutton

 

 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Gov. Jerry Brown, State Budget Get Higher Marks In New Poll
Chris Megarian @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The passage of Proposition 30 has buoyed Californians' feelings about Gov. Jerry Brown and the state budget, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday. Forty-six percent of adults said the tax-hikes, which were pushed by...

Optimism Up About Jerry Brown, Legislature, California's Future
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown, lawmakers and the state's future all looked brighter to residents after last month's passage of the Proposition 30 tax hike, according to a new poll released tonight by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

The Final Indignity: How Republicans Lost A Safe Seat :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
Please note, statements and opinions expressed on the Fox&Hounds Blog are solely those of their respective authors and may not represent the views of Fox&Hounds Daily or its employees thereof. Fox&Hounds Daily is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied by the site's bloggers.

Assemblyman wants Prop. 13 change for commercial property
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Democratic Assemblyman Tom Ammiano said Thursday he will try to rewrite state tax laws that he believes allow businesses to avoid higher taxes when commercial property changes hands.

Lawmakers Bought Cars Fixed At California Taxpayers' Expense
Don Thompson @
mercurynews.com
Numerous California lawmakers repaired or upgraded their state-provided vehicles at taxpayers expense in the final weeks before the one-of-its-kind perk was ending, then later bought those vehicles for personal use.

High-income Californians May Pay Nation's Highest Tax Rate
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
Thanks to passage of Proposition 30 last month, high-income Californians would pay the nation's highest marginal income tax rates -- nearly 52 percent -- if President Barack Obama and Congress fail to make a deal to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff," according to a new study.

California Lawmakers Fixed State Cars On Taxpayers' Dime Before Buying Them For Personal Use - La Daily News
dailynews.com
SACRAMENTO - At least a dozen California lawmakers repaired or upgraded their state-provided vehicles at taxpayers' expense in the final weeks before the one-of-its-kind perk was ending, then later bought those vehicles for personal use.

La Downtown Voters OK Tax For Streetcars - Sfgate
sfgate.com
The tax would only be levied on property owners if the project passes an environmental review and receives matching federal funds. Civic boosters see public transit as one key in restoring the luster of an area that was a thriving center decades ago for dining, theater and shopping. The city clerk said late Monday that 73 percent of about 2,000 mail-in ballots cast by downtown property owners favored the measure, with 67 percent required. Downtown accounts for only 2 to 4 percent of the jobs in Los Angeles County, and the money would be better spent on regional bus service, said Jim Moore, professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Southern California.

Expect Democrats To Be Robust, Not Reticent, In Wielding Power
George Skelton @
latimes.com
They promise caution, but the party's legislative leaders are also keen to exploit their supermajority status. The opportunity may not last.

California Republicans Look To Jim Brulte To Lead Comeback
David Siders and Torey Van Oot @
sacbee.com
Following a catastrophic election for the California Republican Party, influential members of the party have recruited a prominent former legislator, Jim Brulte, to lead a comeback.

UC Executive Pay Raise Sparks Another Bill To Restrict Such Hikes
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Senator wants to limit university executive raises

California Public Finances Make "Notable Progress" Fitch Says
Marc Lifsher @
latimes.com
California has made "notable progress" in improving the state government's financial health since the recession and the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, according to Fitch Ratings.

State Unemployment Insurance Program Among Poorest-performing In U.S. - Oc Watchdog : The Orange County Register
taxdollars.ocregister.com
California‘s unemployment insurance program has too often left thousands of newly-unemployed workers waiting more than three weeks for their first unemployment checks, according to recent reviews of the program’s performance by state and federal officials.

PPIC: California Ready To Slay The Ghost Of Jarvis
calbuzz.com
These are some of the findings of the latest statewide survey from the Public Policy Institute of California that reveals increasing optimism and readiness to engage a number of budget reforms that could put the state on an even firmer footing going forward.

AP Exclusive: Lawmakers bought cars fixed at California taxpayers' expense
Don Thompson @
mercurynews.com
SACRAMENTO -- At least a dozen California lawmakers repaired or upgraded their state-provided vehicles at taxpayers' expense in the final weeks before the one-of-its-kind perk was ending, then later bought those vehicles for personal use.

Hispanic Campaign Donors Look For New Ways To Flex Their Political Muscle
washingtonpost.com
They are an unlikely trio, these relative newcomers to the world of major-league political fundraising: a Hollywood actress who gained fame as a desperate housewife, a Texan who grew up walking picket lines with his labor-organizer father and a Harvard-educated lawyer from Puerto Rico.

Republican Kevin James Makes An Outsider Run For L.A. Mayor
Catherine Saillant @
latimes.com
Kevin James, a lawyer and talk-show host, says he'll aim to win the support of voters tired of City Hall cronyism and scandal.

Report: Calif adult education needs restructuring
The Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
A new state report criticizes California's adult education system as a hodgepodge of courses, fees and faculty and recommends that lawmakers completely overhaul the system to make it consistent statewide.

Port Workers Back On The Job After Deal Ends Costly Strike - La Daily News
dailynews.com
Striking dockworkers returned to work today at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach after the clerical union and management struck a deal late Tuesday just as federal mediators were to intervene in the labor dispute.

California lawmakers urge Obama to create new marine sanctuary
sacbee.com
California lawmakers are quietly mounting a campaign to persuade President Barack Obama to protect a 50-mile stretch of California coast along Sonoma and Mendocino counties by the end of this month - a move that would permanently ban offshore oil drilling there and create California's largest ocean preserve in 20 years.

How Obama 'lost' key state on election day but won anyway
Paul West @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- Final results from a battleground state this week are the latest evidence, if any more were needed, of the important role that early voting played in President Obama’s re-election victory.

Senate should ease wireless tax load
Scott Mackey @
politico.com
Opinion: The poorest Americans are bearing a disproportionate share of this tax burden.

Golden State's Optimism Is Back, New Poll Says
contracostatimes.com
As the state slowly emerges from a long economic drought, Californians are now the most optimistic theyve been in years, according to a wide-ranging post-election poll released Wednesday -- but how Californians view the state of the state often depends on their race and ethnicity.