THE NOONER for November 9, 2012
Below the jump...with 46 counties reporting, there are over 3.2 million uncounted ballots. Expect the first round of ballot-counting updates this afternoon. They are being loaded every fifteen minutes on AroundTheCapitol.com/results.
Before I jump into what's connecting my synapses this morning, let me thank the amazing paid subscribers and advertisers (including this week's Shaw/Yoder/Antwih) of The Nooner. They enable me to obtain data, get through paywalls, and hopefully deliver a product both here and on AroundTheCapitol that you might not otherwise get. MUAH!
AD32: Based on the fact that Kings County has no significant absentees to count while Kern has 32,000, it is reasonable to project that Rudy Salas will win AD32. As long as Sharon Quirk-Silva holds on to her 1,237 lead in AD65, which is very likely, that is 54 votes (two-thirds) for John Perez's majority in the Assembly.
As I tweeted from 30,000 feet flying to the OC, given the absentee ballot reports and the fact that most of us believe outstanding ballots will mirror election day, I am predicting no changes in final results, even in the razor thin races. Of course, Betsy Butler or Dan Lungren are the closest to prove me wrong.
I'm still digesting and weeding through data on the impact of young voters. Obviously, as I said before the election, I think Field Poll (and every other pre-election poll) was low on its projection that 18-29yos would compose 12% of the turnout (10% VBM, 15% polling place), but I would also say that I think the exit poll conducted for the consortia of media outlets probably overstated it at 28% of the voters on Prop 30. That said, I will unequivocally say that if 18-29yos turned out in the levels that Field projected, Prop. 30 would have failed.
Here are a couple of good articles, and not just because they quote me or The Nooner:
- Youth support drives passage of California tax-hike measure [Sarah McBride @ Reuters]
- Young Voter Turnout Under — or Over — Estimated in California Polls? [Lisa Aliferis @ KQED]
While I've held off from proclaiming "Losers," one would be the people that fund voter registration drives and the firms they employ. There's been a lot of attention to the Republican-funded voter registration drive in Riverside County. Between the May 21 close of registration and the October 22 close of registration, the GOP added 39,519 voters to its Riverside county roll (11.4%). Democrats added 32,562 (10.5%). Republicans increased their voter registration margin in the county over Dems from 4.1% to 4.5%. Not a huge margin increase, but as the voter registration numbers across the state were uniformly bad for the GOP, it was good news.
However, as with any political trend, there were accusations of fraud that can only be measured by performance. And, the news isn't good for Republicans. In fact, in every competitive seat for the GOP in Riverside County, it lost, and not by small margins. Here were the big races as they currently stand:
- CD36 - Ruiz (D) over Bono Mack (R) by 2.8% (Dem registration +12.3%)
- CD41 - Takano (D) over Tavaglione (R) by 13.6% (Dem registration +14.5%)
- SD31 - Roth (D) over Miller (R) by 7.2% (Dem registration +13.6%)
- AD61 - Medina (D) over Batey (R) by 17.6% (Dem registration +14.9%)
Those are phenomenonal numbers. There are several possibilities, such as lots of Republicans staying home, independents breaking 80% for the Democrats, or something else. I don't have enough time to dive too deeply into this yet (nor do we have the data yet), but it's a great project for a UC Riverside poli sci major.
FREE ADVICE: Comprehensive immigration reform, emerging as a very significant possibility in Washington and even if led by Speaker Boehner, won't help the California GOP recover without significant changes to the state party. Expect to see a lot more of new GOP Assemblymembers Rocky Chavez and Melissa Melendez (notably, both moderates who beat conservatives), and expect Tim Donnelly's mic to be cut.
MORE FREE ADVICE: How Proposition 30 and 32 killed the Republicans [Tony Quinn @ Fox and Hounds]
OUCH: And, I was concerned about my investment performance. [Sunlight finds American Crossroads with a 1.29% ROI and only 14.40% for the Crossroads Grassroots Strategy that played in California congressional races]
GET OVER IT: For my Republican friends--unfurl yourself from the fetal position and get out from beneath your desk. The Democratic Party has been declared far more than the GOP. You just have to get beyond "faith" and "feeling" (not religious) and be objective. Your base is shrinking. Don't try to convince the people who are walking away that they are wrong. Find ways to appeal to them, and they will come home.
Congratulations to the 2013-14 California Legislature - from everyone at Shaw / Yoder / Antwih, Inc., Peterson Consulting, Inc. and Strategic Local Government Services, LLC!
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This table is available with regular updates on my results page. Click on the "Get Unprocessed Ballots" link on the left above "Statewide Measures" and it will appear. Of those not listed below, Alpine, Glenn and Sierra have completed counting all ballots, while the others have not provided an estimate of unprocessed ballots.
Unprocessed Ballots |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Absentees Left | Provisionals Left | Others Left | Total Left |
| Alameda | 100,000 | 42,000 | 0 | 142,000 left of 142,000 initially reported. |
| Amador | 2,046 | 392 | 0 | 2,438 left of 2,438 initially reported. |
| Calaveras | 2,586 | 566 | 271 | 3,423 left of 3,423 initially reported. |
| Contra Costa | 82,271 | 23,692 | 0 | 105,963 left of 105,963 initially reported. |
| Del Norte | 477 | 230 | 0 | 707 left of 707 initially reported. |
| El Dorado | 13,400 | 2,400 | 20 | 15,820 left of 15,820 initially reported. |
| Fresno | 69,000 | 24,000 | 5,000 | 98,000 left of 98,000 initially reported. |
| Humboldt | 6,257 | 2,580 | 686 | 9,523 left of 9,523 initially reported. |
| Imperial | 8,000 | 4,100 | 384 | 12,484 left of 12,484 initially reported. |
| Kern | 32,002 | 14,803 | 3,077 | 49,882 left of 49,882 initially reported. |
| Kings | 35 | 1,500 | 0 | 1,535 left of 1,535 initially reported. |
| Lake | 5,339 | 1,111 | 254 | 6,704 left of 6,704 initially reported. |
| Lassen | 1,484 | 252 | 0 | 1,736 left of 1,736 initially reported. |
| Los Angeles | 454,171 | 321,875 | 20,000 | 796,046 left of 796,046 initially reported. |
| Madera | 4,859 | 2,339 | 51 | 7,249 left of 7,249 initially reported. |
| Marin | 40,000 | 5,000 | 1,000 | 46,000 left of 46,000 initially reported. |
| Mariposa | 864 | 348 | 45 | 1,257 left of 1,257 initially reported. |
| Mendocino | 16,767 | 1,029 | 0 | 17,796 left of 17,796 initially reported. |
| Merced | 8,879 | 2,857 | 25 | 11,761 left of 11,761 initially reported. |
| Modoc | 38 | 3 | 0 | 41 left of 41 initially reported. |
| Monterey | 37,257 | 8,023 | 3,500 | 48,780 left of 48,780 initially reported. |
| Napa | 18,000 | 1,226 | 3,000 | 22,226 left of 22,226 initially reported. |
| Nevada | 15,750 | 1,899 | 846 | 18,495 left of 18,495 initially reported. |
| Orange | 139,742 | 78,394 | 6,200 | 224,336 left of 224,336 initially reported. |
| Placer | 34,904 | 6,367 | 1,819 | 43,090 left of 43,090 initially reported. |
| Plumas | 592 | 316 | 0 | 908 left of 908 initially reported. |
| Riverside | 105,000 | 60,000 | 18,000 | 183,000 left of 183,000 initially reported. |
| Sacramento | 162,000 | 31,000 | 0 | 193,000 left of 193,000 initially reported. |
| San Benito | 5,227 | 568 | 270 | 6,065 left of 6,065 initially reported. |
| San Diego | 375,000 | 90,000 | 10,000 | 475,000 left of 475,000 initially reported. |
| San Francisco | 33,729 | 17,558 | 2,069 | 53,356 left of 53,356 initially reported. |
| San Joaquin | 33,729 | 17,558 | 2,069 | 53,356 left of 53,356 initially reported. |
| San Luis Obispo | 21,983 | 6,533 | 1,593 | 30,109 left of 30,109 initially reported. |
| San Mateo | 38,533 | 18,736 | 3,000 | 60,269 left of 60,269 initially reported. |
| Santa Barbara | 32,600 | 10,364 | 1,712 | 44,676 left of 44,676 initially reported. |
| Santa Clara | 180,000 | 35,000 | 1,300 | 216,300 left of 216,300 initially reported. |
| Santa Cruz | 36,500 | 8,700 | 1,200 | 46,400 left of 46,400 initially reported. |
| Shasta | 16,000 | 2,500 | 1,500 | 20,000 left of 20,000 initially reported. |
| Solano | 21,019 | 14,113 | 527 | 35,659 left of 35,659 initially reported. |
| Stanislaus | 37,400 | 11,350 | 50 | 48,800 left of 48,800 initially reported. |
| Sutter | 8,158 | 1,131 | 2 | 9,291 left of 9,291 initially reported. |
| Tehama | 4,409 | 647 | 876 | 5,932 left of 5,932 initially reported. |
| Trinity | 392 | 149 | 541 | 1,082 left of 1,082 initially reported. |
| Tulare | 18,350 | 8,950 | 2,000 | 29,300 left of 29,300 initially reported. |
| Ventura | 47,894 | 15,000 | 225 | 63,119 left of 63,119 initially reported. |
| Yolo | 10,565 | 4,722 | 402 | 15,689 left of 15,689 initially reported. |
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Larry Gordon @ latimesblogs.latimes.com
Nicholas B. Dirks, a high-ranking Columbia University administrator and an expert on the history and culture of India, has been chosen to be the next chancellor of UC Berkeley, officials announced Thursday. Dirks, who is Columbia's executive vice president and...sacbee.com
With 193,000 ballots yet to be counted, all GOP Rep. Dan Lungren and Democrat Ami Bera, separated by just 184 votes, can do is wait ⦠and watch.John Fensterwald @ edsource.org
Now that Democrats in the Assembly and Senate are on the verge of gaining a supermajority, they may soon be in a position to put before voters a constitutional amendment lowering the threshold for parcel taxes to 55 percent, just as it is for school construction bonds.Evan Halper and Anthony York @ latimes.com
Victory on his tax measure offers Gov. Jerry Brown more clout to tackle other issues he cares about.Jim Sanders @ blogs.sacbee.com
Connie Conway was re-elected as Assembly Republican leader Thursday, two days after the GOP took a shellacking statewide that appears to have given Democrats a supermajority of seats in both houses of the Legislature.washingtonpost.com
Latino voters who turned out to the polls in unprecedented numbers on Election Day and helped propel President Obama to a second term are calling his reelection a victory — and a starting point for more permanent solutions to the nation’s immigration policies.latimesblogs.latimes.com
Assembly Speaker John Perez gets vote of confidence to remain as leaderCarl Cohn and Louis Freedberg @ edsource.org
The welcome passage of Proposition 30 by voters this week will help avert an immediate fiscal crisis in our schools. But it will not undo the damage of years of underinvestment in public education in the state.Rina Palta @ scpr.org
A federal court judge blocked implementation of Proposition 35 while groups pursue a First Amendment lawsuit.foxandhoundsdaily.com
With the success of both Proposition 30 and Proposition 39, new tax revenue is coming into the General Fund. There may be little desire from either the governor or the legislature to try to change the tax system in light of the new taxes.nytimes.com
After years of political and legal threats kept President ObamaâÂÂs health care law in a state of uncertainty, his re-election all but assures it will survive. The next hurdle is making it work.Kevin Yamamura @ blogs.sacbee.com
After previously threatening downgrades if Proposition 30 had failed, Moody's Investors Service said Thursday that voter approval of the tax initiative positively impacted the credit ratings of California's K-12 districts and colleges.foxandhoundsdaily.com
As folks slammed Brown for getting a late start to his campaign and running it as a one-man show with the governor taking the starring role in every 30-second TV spot, Brown just went his way, getting out his message that the state needs more money to clean up its budget mess once and for all.Local @ contracostatimes.com
California activists are ecstatic about four other states protection of gay marriage rights, but they still believe court cases will carry the day in California, not a ballot measure.Dan Walters @ sacbee.com
Darrell Steinberg, the president pro tem of the state Senate, says he wants to use the Democrats' new supermajorities in the Legislature to reform the state's taxation system and the initiative process.Kevin Yamamura @ blogs.sacbee.com
After previously threatening downgrades if Proposition 30 had failed, Moody's Investors Service said Thursday that voter approval of the tax initiative positively impacted the credit ratings of California's K-12 districts and colleges.Noam N. Levey, Washington Bureau @ latimes.com
Republican state leaders must decide quickly whether to implement it or have the federal government do so. Obama also faces imminent challenges to carry out the legislation.David Lauter @ latimes.com
Mitt Romney's top campaign official in Florida conceded Thursday that President Obama will win the state.Lisa Mascaro @ latimes.com
WASHINGTON – In a wide-ranging interview, House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said raising tax rates is “unacceptable,” vice presidential nominee Paul D. Ryan is not the new leader of the GOP and the reelection of President Obama means the nation’s new healthcare law is “the law of the land.”John Ellis @ fresnobee.com
Valley Republicans Jim Patterson and Frank Bigelow headed to Sacramento Wednesday as soon-to-be Assembly members, but they also went north knowing their political party could be marginalized more than ever.
Bettina Boxall @ latimes.com
The regional water board regulations place restrictions on 33 pollutants.Peter Schrag @ sacbee.com
We've known for years that the California initiative process, far from fulfilling the expectations of its Progressive movement fathers, has become a playpen for the same forces it was supposed to stop.