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THE NOONER for November 1, 2012

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NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION CONTEST - Vote by Sunday, November 4 at 5 p.m.

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THE REPORTS FROM POLITICAL DATA INC. (NOT A FINAL REPORT):

FUN WITH NUMBERS:

As of yesterday's tally, there were 1,455,249 registrations since September 7. Of these, 635,431 (43%) were 18-29 year olds. Of these, 324,389 (51%) were online, and 311,046 (49%) were paper. I know I sound like a broken record, but whether or not these voters turn out will drive many races.

FIELD POLL [n=1,566, telephone multilingual, 10/17-10/30, +/- 2.6%]

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
Yes: 48%
No: 38%
Undecided: 14%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 34%
No: 49%
Undecided: 17%

Effect on ballot measure averages - Prop 30 "yes" drops -0.2% to 48.8% and "no" drops 2.5% to 39%, Prop 38 "yes" drops 0.7% to 37.1%.

GOVERNOR'S TALKING POINT: We're at 50% among those surveyed October 25-30, showing the undecideds are breaking for us. Among those who have already voted, we're up 54-42%.

JOEL FOX'S TALKING POINT: Ballot measures below 50% the week before the election don't pass. You're banking on young people who won't vote. Your big "bump" is within margin of error and not significant.

MOLLY'S TALKING POINT: Only 9% of voters are "Yes on 38/No on 30." Don't be a hater!

PROP 30 BREAKDOWN:

  • 18-29: 61-27%
  • 30-39: 56-28%
  • 40-49: 49-37%
  • 50-64: 49-39%
  • 65 or older: 38%-48% 

Field's likely voters sample for 18-29 year olds was 12.2%. In comparison, 18-29 year olds were 19% in 1996, 15% in 2000, 22% in 2004, and 20% at 2008. If youth turnout (relative to other age groups) is similar to 2004 or 2008, Prop 30 passes. If youth turnout is like 1996 or 2000, it fails. Although not perfect as exit and other polls use different age categories, here are the scenarios I see based on youth voter turnout:

Proposition 30 "yes" percent, based on previous presidential turnouts, using the Field Poll's latest information:

  • 1996: 48.7%
  • 2000: 49.2%
  • 2004: 51.4%
  • 2008: 50.9%

Notable for Jerry Brown is that he is now pulling more Republicans to the "yes" side (22%) than the opposition is pulling Democrats to the "no" side (17%). Additionally, of those who say they have already voted, Prop 30 leads 54%-42%, which is not what you would expect.

ANOTHER CAUTION: Field Poll (and others that use registered voter lists for sampling) likely didn't have the vast majority of the over 1.5 million newly registered voters, who skew young and Democrat (+4.8%).

There's also a SurveyUSA poll that found Prop 30 at 51% yes, 42% no, 8% undecided, although the crosstabs aren't available yet.

CD35: Yes, that's really $2.7 million that Michael Bloomberg's PAC has put in to support Gloria McLeod and oppose Joe Baca

CD52: Bilbray, Peters Tied in 52nd Congressional Race, New Poll Says

  • Brian Bilbray 46%
  • Scott Peters 46%
  • Undecided 8%

[n=628 likely/actual voters, auto-telephone, +/- 4%

In the same poll, 48% would vote for Romney and 45% for Obama. Second only to Mary Bono Mack, this race has been considered one of the "safest" for the GOP incumbents and has not been the subject of as many party-connected independent expenditures.

SD05: The Bee gives a thumbs up to Cathleen Galgiani's ad with the father of a murder victim, one of the best of the cycle.

SD27: Todd Zink's camp confirms why they gave back $140,000 (voluntary spending limits). [Patrick McGreevy @ LAT]

ROMO: Sergio Romo sported a t-shirt readying "I just look illegal" at yesterday's Giants celebration.

 

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Ballot Measure Endorsements
PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
Bakersfield Californian N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y
LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
LATimes Y N N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCRegister N N Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Direct Mail $12,351.05 10/30/12
House Majority PAC Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Media Production Costs $10,450.00 10/30/12
House Majority PAC Brian Bilbray (Oppose) Media Production Costs $29,061.64 10/30/12
House Majority PAC Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Radio Advertising $133,710.89 10/30/12
House Majority PAC Brian Bilbray (Oppose) Television Advertising $381,997.20 10/30/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Television Advertising $109,228.00 10/30/12
Independence USA PAC Joe Baca (Oppose) Direct Mail Services $65,299.20 10/30/12
Independence USA PAC Gloria Negrete McLeod (Oppose) Media Buy and Production $2,350,000.00 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Consulting for Mailer $562.50 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Consulting for Mailer $187.50 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Consulting for Mailer $375.00 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Consulting for Mailer $375.00 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Mailer $13,582.37 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Consulting for Mailer $13,582.36 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Consulting for Mailer $6,791.19 10/30/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Mailer $20,373.54 10/30/12
Alpha Valley Business and Technology Consortium Eric Swalwell (Support) Mailer $22,105.97 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Tony Strickland (Oppose) Media Production $1,720.48 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Buy $246,682.50 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Ricky Gill (Oppose) Media Buy $122,986.50 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jeff Denham (Oppose) Media Buy $470,961.30 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Media Buy $63,240.00 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jeff Denham (Oppose) Media Buy $14,777.70 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Tony Strickland (Oppose) Media Buy $59,887.35 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jeff Denham (Oppose) Media Production $3,000.00 10/30/12
Californians for Sacred Sites Protection Mark Takano (Support) Direct Mail $16,186.36 10/30/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Mass Mail $9,173.830 10/31/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Mass Mail $11,362.89 10/31/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership Kim Vann (Support) Radio Ads $39,997.00 10/31/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership Kim Vann (Support) Radio Ads $1,500.00 10/31/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund Jeff Denham (Support) Radio Ads $472.00 10/30/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund Ricky Gill (Support) Radio Ads $7,291.50 10/30/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund Dan Lungren (Support) Radio Ads $2,012.00 10/30/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund David Valadao (Support) Radio Ads $42.22 10/30/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund Jeff Denham (Support) Radio Ads $412.82 10/30/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund Dan Lungren (Support) Radio Ads $623.43 10/30/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund Jeff Denham (Support) Radio Ads $210.12 10/30/12
National Right to Life Victory Fund David Valadao (Support) Radio Ads $1,129.45 10/30/12
Congressional Leadership Fund David Valadao (Support) TV/Media Placement $88,230.80 10/30/12
Women Vote! Gloria Negrete McLeod (Support) Mailhouse $34,324.64 10/30/12
Spirit of Democract America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $70,982.40 10/30/12
Re-Elect Congressman Kucinich Committee Barbara Lee (Support) E-mails $1,386.60 10/30/12
Re-Elect Congressman Kucinich Committee Dianne Feinstein (Support) E-mails $1,385.80 10/30/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Asian American Small Business Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $450 10/27/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Paul Fong (Support) $9,372 10/25/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Jennifer Ong (Support) $14,219 10/25/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $11,173 10/26/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Paul Fong (Support) $1,678 10/21/2012 10/30/2012
Berkeley Firefighters Association Local 1227 Pac Sophie Hahn (Support) $3,478 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Berkeley Firefighters Association Local 1227 Pac Sophie Hahn (Support) $430 10/24/2012 10/30/2012
Bonta For Assembly 2012, With Major Funding By The California Professional Firefighters And California School Employees Association, Support Rob Rob Bonta (Support) $17,804 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Bosetti For Assembly 2012; Northstate Farm And Business Pac, Supporting Rick Brian Dahle (Oppose) $25,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Betsy Butler (i) (Support) $69,907 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Marc Levine (i) (Oppose) $25,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Rob Bonta (Support) $15,061 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Rob Bonta (Support) $31,280 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Adam Gray (Support) $9,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Todd Zink (Support) $23,507 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Association Of Psychiatric Technicians Pac Das Williams (Support) $1,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Association Of Psychiatric Technicians Pac Phil Ting (Support) $1,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure Pac Adam Gray (Support) $15,184 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure Pac Sue Chan (Support) $15,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Frank Bigelow (Support) $23,677 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $3,500 10/27/2012 10/30/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $47,035 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $13,124 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Rudy Salas (Support) $1,416 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $18,478 10/19/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $5,672 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $750 10/18/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Rudy Salas (Support) $16,306 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Richard Roth (Support) $4,119 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $9,510 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Rudy Salas (Support) $6,636 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $16,937 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $7,769 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $605 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Richard Roth (Support) $13,029 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $716 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $3,062 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $850 10/18/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $1,600 10/18/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $3,062 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $6,317 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $1,354 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Melissa Melendez (Oppose) $17,452 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Rocky Chavez (Oppose) $13,391 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Craig Huey (Support) $22,995 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayers For Responsible Government Ray Grangoff (Support) $9,371 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Fran Pavley (Support) $117,500 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Jim Beall (i) (Support) $65,635 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Al Muratsuchi (i) (Support) $64,391 10/05/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca Jr. (i) (Support) $27,686 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Joe Baca (Oppose) $24,944 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability And Responsibility, Sponsored By Dentists, Physicians, Health Care Providers, Realtors, School Employees And Construction Trades Organizations Craig Huey (i) (Oppose) $28,770 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Cdm Smith Inc. Keep Us Moving (Support) $2,500 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $2,835 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Fran Pavley (Oppose) $119,648 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Bill Berryhill (Support) $23,190 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Bill Berryhill (Support) $12,030 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $12,030 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $118,978 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Community Empowerment Coalition Marty Block (Support) $2,688 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Community Empowerment Coalition Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Cont (Oppose) $1,536 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Consumer Advocates For Safe Food And Wataer, Sponsored By Food & Water Watch Genetically Engineered Foods. Labeling. (Support) $1,975 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Peter Tateishi (i) (Oppose) $17,424 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Ken Cooley (i) (Support) $33,247 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Ken Cooley (i) (Support) $21,296 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Democratic Party Of Santa Cruz County   $2,935 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 35 (Support) $645 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 40 (Support) $558 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $19,908 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Rob Bonta (Support) $10,412 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Ben Hueso (Support) $9,835 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Joe Baca, Jr. (Support) $17,197 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Phil Ting (Support) $24,981 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Joe Baca, Jr. (Support) $17,197 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Raul Bocanegra (Support) $27,041 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Rob Bonta (Support) $10,412 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Joe Baca, Jr. (Support) $17,197 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Frank Bigelow (Support) $16,734 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Roger Hernandez (Support) $14,476 10/27/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Rudy Salas (Support) $26,733 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Beth Gaines (Support) $25,694 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Bob Whalen (Support) $2,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac George Plescia (Support) $35,918 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Ken Cooley (Support) $2,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Joe Coto (Support) $1,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Todd Zink (Support) $2,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Peter Tateishi (Support) $66,513 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Edwin Chau (Oppose) $21,186 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Ken Cooley (Oppose) $66,513 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Chris Norby (Support) $12,015 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Sharon Quirk-silva (Oppose) $12,015 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Matthew Lin (Support) $24,662 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Korean Resource Center Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guaranteed Loca (Support) $5,277 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Lincoln Club Of Fresno County Yes On Measure O (Support) $2,500 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Lincoln Club Of Fresno County Yes On Prop 30 (Oppose) $2,350 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Lincoln Club Of Fresno County Yes On Prop 38 (Oppose) $2,350 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $4,088 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Peter Tateishi (i) (Oppose) $67,215 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Bill Berryhill (i) (Oppose) $75,547 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Richard Bloom (i) (Oppose) $39,736 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jeff Miller (i) (Oppose) $22,871 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Orange County Labor Federation Afl-cio Committee On Political Education (cope) John Leos (Support) $1,538 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Parents And Teachers For Putting Students First Cheryl Brown (Support) $34,656 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Peace Officers Research Association Of California (porac) Statewide Independent Expenditure Committee Brian Dahle (Support) $29,513 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Perea Reviving Jobs And The Economy Ballot Measure Committee Human Trafficking. Penalties. Initiative Statute. (Support) $5,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $18 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $18 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $2,112 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $2,112 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $368 10/21/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $368 10/21/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $2 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $2 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Regency Outdoor Advertising, Inc. Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction (Oppose) $23,900 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Jordan Brandman (Oppose) $2,597 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Gavin Huntley-fenner (Oppose) $4,668 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Tita Smith (Oppose) $1,418 10/31/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Evan Chemers (Oppose) $4,669 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Katherine Daigle (Oppose) $3,744 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Larry Agran (Oppose) $7,488 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Pk Wong (Oppose) $8,412 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Residents For A Secure Future Sponsored By The Rancho Santa Fe Association Steve Danon (Support) $19,998 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
San Diego Restaurant And Beverage Political Action Committee Sponsored By The California Restaurant Association Penalties Re Human Trafficking (Support) $5,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Southern California Pipe Trades District Council 16 Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $2,588 09/25/2012 10/30/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Rocky Chavez (Support) $157,833 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Ken Cooley (Oppose) $400,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Truck Unit Pac Sponsored By The California Trucking Association Fran Pavley (Oppose) $28,379 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Beverly Ho-a-yun Popek (Support) $291 10/25/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Matt Haney (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Sam Rodriguez (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Matt Haney (Support) $291 10/25/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Sam Rodriguez (Support) $291 10/25/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Shamann Walton (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Beverly Ho-a-yun Popek (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Gavin Newsom Criticizes Jerry Brown In KGO Radio Interview
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom two weeks ago criticized Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative approach, suggesting to KGO Radio in San Francisco that the governor was slow to hit the campaign trail and that he was telling college students "something that's not true."

California Dems Seek Probe Of GOP House Candidate Maldonado
Jonathan S. Landay @
sacbee.com
The California Democratic Party called Wednesday for a state investigation into whether the Republican former lieutenant governor, enmeshed in a tight race for the U.S. House of Representatives, failed to disclose two 2007 state campaign fund-raising events to regulators in violation of campaign financing law.

Student Fees Will Remain A Conundrum, Even With A New Law
Seth Rosenblatt @
edsource.org
Administrators and parents alike have long waited for clarity on what fees schools could and could not charge students. With Governor Brown signing legislation that settles a lawsuit over public schools charging students for educational activities and materials, that day has come, right? Think again.

Judge Confirms Ruling Against Mystery Donor To Ballot Campaigns
Dan Smith @
blogs.sacbee.com
A Sacramento Superior Court judge confirmed tonight her ruling against an obscure Arizona campaign group, saying the failure to investigate the source of its funds would cause irreparable harm to California voters.

Gov. Jerry Brown's Muddled Message Hasn't Helped Prop. 30's Chances
George Skelton @
latimes.com
Brown fails to make consistent, coherent arguments to state voters about why they should back his tax measure.

High Stakes for Jerry Brown with Prop 30
Ben Adler @
capradio.org
Analysts say California Governor Jerry Brown’s political power could rise or fall depending on the outcome of his November tax initiative – with great impact on the rest of his governorship.

Surge In Mail-in Voting Could Delay California Results
Local @
mercurynews.com
With as many as half of California voters expected to cast their ballots by mail and several statewide contests narrowing to dead heats, Election Day has the potential to morph into election week. The rise in mail-in voting means that some of the highest-profile contests, from a statewide tax initiative to nationally watched congressional races, might not be decided by the time voters go to bed on Election Day if enough of those voters wait until the last minute to turn in their ballots.

Gov. Brown Pleads For Votes For His Struggling Prop. 30 Tax Hike
contracostatimes.com
With time running out and his odds growing longer, California Gov. Jerry Brown pleaded with voters Wednesday to support his $6 billion-a-year tax increase and warned of deep cuts unless residents send more money to Sacramento.

Poll Shows Brown's Tax Measure Down, Not Out
John Myers @
news10.net
Another new poll confirms the recent downward slide for Gov. Jerry Brown's tax increase initiative, but also suggests there's a very real chance that Brown and his allies will eke out a victory on Election Day.

Romney Takes Cautious Approach In Return To Presidential Campaign Trail
Emily Goodin @
thehill.com
Mitt Romney avoided direct attacks on President Obama on Wednesday at his first political event since Hurricane Sandy's landfall.

Groups Spend More Than $20 Million On CA Legislative Races
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Independent groups have spent more than $20 million on state legislative contests ahead of Tuesday's election.

Bay Area's Veteran Lawmakers Entrenched
Carolyn Lochhead @
sfgate.com
A generation of Californians has reached voting age knowing no representation in Congress other than the familiar names that again will grace the ballot Tuesday: Dianne Feinstein, Nancy Pelosi, George Miller, Pete Stark.

Poll: Brown's tax initiative slips below majority
JUDY LIN, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
California's undecided voters will determine the fate of Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative as the latest public opinion survey shows support slipping below the majority needed for passage.

Number Of California Voters Reaches Record Levels
Patrick McGreevy and Evan Halper @
latimes.com
The more than 1.4 million new voters, nearly half of whom registered online under new state law, raise total above 18 million. Democrats get a boost.

De La Fuente, Kaplan Face Off In Oakland
Matthai Kuruvila @
sfgate.com
Twenty-five candidates are vying for three open seats on the Oakland City Council in next week's election, and some council members say the panel has become so dysfunctional they're eagerly awaiting the change.

LAUSD Bracing For Severe Cuts If Prop. 30 Loses
Barbara Jones @
dailynews.com
The defeat of Proposition 30 would trigger budget cuts that could force Los Angeles Unified and other school districts to shorten this year's calendar by three weeks.

Onetime reviled Ohio governor pitches in on behalf of Romney
Alana Semuels @
latimes.com
A year ago, he was one of the more hated governors in America. Republican Gov. John Kasich had pushed through Senate Bill 5, legislation that limited collective bargaining rights for public employees in the state. He invoked the ire of longtime Republicans, including police and fire unions, and was roundly mocked after an initiative, Issue 2, repealed the law by a 2-1 margin.

Brown pleads for votes for struggling tax hike
MICHAEL R. BLOOD, AP Political Writer @
utsandiego.com
With time running out and his odds growing longer, California Gov. Jerry Brown pleaded with voters Wednesday to support his $6 billion-a-year tax increase and warned of deep cuts unless residents send more money to Sacramento.

Both presidential campaigns up and running again at full speed
Nedra Pickler and Steve Peoples @
mercurynews.com
Presidential politics reignited in the wake of natural disaster Thursday, with the candidates beginning their full-throttle closing arguments with new vigor on the same pocketbook concerns that have dominated the campaign from the start.

The Caucus: Total Cost of Election Could Be $6 Billion
NICHOLAS CONFESSORE @
thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com
The presidential election would likely account for about $2.6 billion in total spending, including spending by the candidates, parties and outside groups.

Two senators demand answers on CSU's legislative scorecard
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
that rated lawmakers on how well they supported the system's political goals.

California Cancels Pact With Firm Co-owned By Senator's Spouse
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
The husband of state Sen. Mimi Walters is an owner of Drug Consultants Inc., which has contracts to provide medical workers for California's prisons.

Poll finds Jerry Brown has a chance to pass Proposition 30
sacbee.com
Public support for Gov. Jerry Brown's initiative to raise taxes remains below 50 percent, but the measure no longer appears to be on a downward trajectory, leaving Brown within striking distance one week before Election Day, according to a new Field Poll.

Arizona Group That Donated $11m Must Open Books - Sfgate
sfgate.com
An Arizona-based non-profit corporation that made the largest anonymous campaign donation in California history must open its books to state campaign finance regulators for an audit, a judge ruled Wednesday. Sacramento Superior Court Judge Shellyanne Chang ruled that the corporation, Americans for Responsible Leadership, must comply with the order in favor of the Fair Political Practices Commission, which oversees campaign financing in California, by 5 p.m. Thursday. In her ruling, Chang wrote, "The court finds that irreparable harm has occurred and continues to occur as each day passes and voters continue to cast their votes without information that may influence their votes" if the FPPC determines that the Arizona group violated its disclosure requirements. Jason Torchinksy, an attorney representing Americans for Responsible Leadership at the hearing, called the commission's request for an audit a "remarkable and frightening proposition."