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THE NOONER for October 31, 2012

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E-7

NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION CONTEST - Vote by Sunday, November 4 at 5 p.m.

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THE REPORTS FROM POLITICAL DATA INC.:

THE SURGE

It what seemed to be a sleeper election with extremely low voter participation in June, we are seeing something significant and some indicators that California election turnout could be at the higher end of presidential general elections, rather than a very low range that I looked at in June. This is one area I'm happy to say I always hoped I'd be wrong about.

Here's the voter participation in past presidential elections (% of registered / % of eligible):

  • 2008: 79.4% / 59.2%
  • 2004: 76.0% / 57.0%
  • 2000: 70.9% / 51.9%
  • 1996: 65.5% / 52.6%
  • 1992: 75.3% / 54.5%
  • 1988: 72.8% / 53.5%
  • 1984: 74.9% / 59.1%
  • 1980: 77.2% / 57.05%

In comparison, in June we saw only 31.6% of registered and 22.47% of eligible cast ballots. In constructing a turnout projection of 54-62%, I used the average increase in participation between presidential primaries and generals and applied it to that low base. Fortunately, we'll likely have a historic bounceback.

Throughout this cycle, we've been talking about voter disengagement compared to a "watershed" election in 2008. However, the data simply don't support that. In fact, if we assume 18.2 million voters, registration of eligible Californians will have increased to 76.5% from 74.6% in 2008. That's right, voter registration numbers are not just surging, but a greater share of Californians will be registered to vote than in 2008. 

And, while new voters aren't always the best to count on turning out, I hypothesize that the huge number who registered online (which will likely be over 50% of the 1.1 million new voters) are likely to turn out. These voters were not nagged on campus by a paid gatherer or a cute guy or gal in the campus political club. There was no peer pressure. They affirmatively went to a pretty bland website and filled out a form. 

From a Los Angeles County report: Online voter registration statistics reveal 18-29 year olds as the largest user of online voter registration. Nearly half of all online voter registrations were submitted by 18-29 year olds (56,980). They accounted for an even greater share of new registrants who registered online, accounting for 64%.

As of the same six-day out period before the June election, 18% of absentees had returned ballots. As of this morning's report, 31% of VBMs have voted and had their ballot reported as received. I believe we are now looking at a turnout of 72-78%, much higher than the 54%-62% I discussed back in June. This is not shaping up to be a 1996 dispassionate presidential re-election deemed well over by election day, but rather a 1980 or 2004 knock-out brawl.

Sure, California doesn't play in the presidential. But, families don't talk about the Electoral College around the kitchen table. 

GEEK PORN: And, Paul gives us this gem, a pretty chart of online registration by day, broken down by party. Again, these are not final numbers.

TRIGGER UNHAPPY? GOP leaders call for Democrats to negotiate to block school cuts if Prop 30 fails.

APPEAL AHEAD: Court says Arizona group must provide donor information in CA election [Kevin Yamamura @ SacBee]

SLICK: Chevron gives $2.3 million to SuperPAC (targeting Lois Capps) [Andrew S. Ross @ SFChron]

BANKRUPT: Sources: Richardson out of cash [Jonathan Allen @ Politico]

FOR A PRICE: Anti-tax group's support can come with a price [Anthony York @ LAT

STIMULUS: Outside spending swamps Inland contests [Jim Miller & Ben Goad @ PE]

PRETTY CHARTS: I've updated the ballot measure polling averages with charts.

FROM THE DESK OF TONY QUINN: How Proposition 30 Can Still Win [Fox & Hounds Daily]

SD27: Todd Zink returned $140,000 to Republican party central committees (two filings). His folks say its because he is abiding by voluntary spending limits, while others say that it signals that the seat is not in play and the cash is needed in Riverside. With Cathleen Galgiani and Fran Pavley showing strength, party insiders on both sides speculate that Jeff Miller may be the only salvagable seat in an election that very well could deliver 28 seats for a Darrell Steinberg Democratic supermajority. And, just to make it all confusing, the spending continues for Zink in Ventura.

AD05: Frank Bigelow: Union Gigolo [radio ad "enthusiastically" paid for by Rico Oller]

AD48: Apparently, Roger Hernandez has issues with the West Covina police department, having filed 7 complaints against them in 2007. Thus, the LA County Sheriff is taking over the investigation into the latest claims of domestic violence.

AD49: Ed Chau joins Hernandez in the hot water club.

$$$: Charles Munger Jr.'s fee claim may chill public interest suits [Michael Hiltzik @ LAT]

ALAMEDA: Torey Van Oot gets a copy of the anti-Mary Hayashi mailer

 

 

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Ballot Measure Endorsements
PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
Bakersfield Californian N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y
LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
LATimes Y N N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCRegister N N Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Friends of Democracy Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Phone survey $9,395.00 10/30/12
House Majority PAC Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Direct Mail $8,835.40 10/29/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Direct Mail $6,157.47 10/29/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Direct Mail $12,023.77 10/29/12
House Majority PAC Dan Lungren (Oppose) Online Advertising $11,081.00 10/29/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Online Advertising $11,081.00 10/29/12
YG Network Ricky Gill (Support) Web Ad Placement & Production $16,566.66 10/30/12
YG Network David Valadao (Support) Web Ad Placement & Production $27,466.66 10/30/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate Mail $3,485.50 10/30/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate Mail $4,468.00 10/30/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate Mail $3,964.00 10/30/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate Mail $5,427.00 10/30/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Direct Mail $18,935.08 10/30/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate Mail $8,145.00 10/30/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $30,270.96 10/29/12
American Values Coalition Pete Stark (Support) Mailing expenses $7,799.74 10/29/12
Committee for an Effective and Trusted Congressman Abel Maldonado Henry Waxman (Support) Radio Buy and Production $75,000.00 10/29/12
NARAL Pro-Choice America Julia Brownley (Support) Printing, postage, mailshop fees $8,545.99 10/29/12
Americans for Tax Reform Ricky Gill (Support) Media Buy & Spot Production $90,000.00 10/29/12
Americans for Tax Reform Ricky Gill (Support) Mail Production & Delivery $48,000.00 10/29/12
Community Empowerment Coalition Scott Peters (Support) Mailer $3,584.00 10/29/12
Independence USA PAC Joe Baca (Oppose) Direct Mail Services $64,979.20 10/29/12
Congressional Leadership Fund Lois Capps (Oppose) Direct Mail $21,762.00 10/29/12
LCV Victory Fund Dan Lungren (Oppose) Persuasion phones $18,000.00 10/29/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Asian American Small Business Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $450 10/27/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Paul Fong (Support) $9,372 10/25/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Jennifer Ong (Support) $14,219 10/25/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $11,173 10/26/2012 10/31/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Paul Fong (Support) $1,678 10/21/2012 10/30/2012
Berkeley Firefighters Association Local 1227 Pac Sophie Hahn (Support) $3,478 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Berkeley Firefighters Association Local 1227 Pac Sophie Hahn (Support) $430 10/24/2012 10/30/2012
Bonta For Assembly 2012, With Major Funding By The California Professional Firefighters And California School Employees Association, Support Rob Rob Bonta (Support) $17,804 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Bosetti For Assembly 2012; Northstate Farm And Business Pac, Supporting Rick Brian Dahle (Oppose) $25,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Betsy Butler (i) (Support) $69,907 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Marc Levine (i) (Oppose) $25,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Rob Bonta (Support) $15,061 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Rob Bonta (Support) $31,280 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Adam Gray (Support) $9,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Todd Zink (Support) $23,507 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Association Of Psychiatric Technicians Pac Das Williams (Support) $1,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Association Of Psychiatric Technicians Pac Phil Ting (Support) $1,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure Pac Adam Gray (Support) $15,184 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure Pac Sue Chan (Support) $15,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Frank Bigelow (Support) $23,677 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $3,500 10/27/2012 10/30/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $47,035 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $13,124 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Rudy Salas (Support) $1,416 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $18,478 10/19/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $5,672 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $750 10/18/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Rudy Salas (Support) $16,306 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Richard Roth (Support) $4,119 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $9,510 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Rudy Salas (Support) $6,636 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $16,937 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $7,769 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $605 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Richard Roth (Support) $13,029 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $716 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Al Muratsuchi (Support) $3,062 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $850 10/18/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Fran Pavley (Support) $1,600 10/18/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $3,062 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $6,317 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
California Statewide Law Enforcement Association (cslea) Independent Expenditure Committee (iec) Marty Block (Support) $1,354 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Melissa Melendez (Oppose) $17,452 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Rocky Chavez (Oppose) $13,391 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Craig Huey (Support) $22,995 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
California Taxpayers For Responsible Government Ray Grangoff (Support) $9,371 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Fran Pavley (Support) $117,500 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Jim Beall (i) (Support) $65,635 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Al Muratsuchi (i) (Support) $64,391 10/05/2012 10/30/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca Jr. (i) (Support) $27,686 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Joe Baca (Oppose) $24,944 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability And Responsibility, Sponsored By Dentists, Physicians, Health Care Providers, Realtors, School Employees And Construction Trades Organizations Craig Huey (i) (Oppose) $28,770 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Cdm Smith Inc. Keep Us Moving (Support) $2,500 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $2,835 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Fran Pavley (Oppose) $119,648 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Bill Berryhill (Support) $23,190 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Bill Berryhill (Support) $12,030 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $12,030 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $118,978 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Community Empowerment Coalition Marty Block (Support) $2,688 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Community Empowerment Coalition Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Cont (Oppose) $1,536 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Consumer Advocates For Safe Food And Wataer, Sponsored By Food & Water Watch Genetically Engineered Foods. Labeling. (Support) $1,975 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Peter Tateishi (i) (Oppose) $17,424 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Ken Cooley (i) (Support) $33,247 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Ken Cooley (i) (Support) $21,296 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Democratic Party Of Santa Cruz County   $2,935 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 35 (Support) $645 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 40 (Support) $558 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $19,908 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Rob Bonta (Support) $10,412 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Ben Hueso (Support) $9,835 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Joe Baca, Jr. (Support) $17,197 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Phil Ting (Support) $24,981 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Joe Baca, Jr. (Support) $17,197 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Raul Bocanegra (Support) $27,041 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Rob Bonta (Support) $10,412 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Joe Baca, Jr. (Support) $17,197 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Frank Bigelow (Support) $16,734 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Roger Hernandez (Support) $14,476 10/27/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Rudy Salas (Support) $26,733 10/26/2012 10/30/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Beth Gaines (Support) $25,694 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Bob Whalen (Support) $2,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac George Plescia (Support) $35,918 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Ken Cooley (Support) $2,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Joe Coto (Support) $1,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Independent Voter Pac Todd Zink (Support) $2,000 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Peter Tateishi (Support) $66,513 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Edwin Chau (Oppose) $21,186 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Ken Cooley (Oppose) $66,513 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Chris Norby (Support) $12,015 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Sharon Quirk-silva (Oppose) $12,015 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Matthew Lin (Support) $24,662 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Korean Resource Center Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guaranteed Loca (Support) $5,277 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Lincoln Club Of Fresno County Yes On Measure O (Support) $2,500 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Lincoln Club Of Fresno County Yes On Prop 30 (Oppose) $2,350 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Lincoln Club Of Fresno County Yes On Prop 38 (Oppose) $2,350 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $4,088 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Peter Tateishi (i) (Oppose) $67,215 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Bill Berryhill (i) (Oppose) $75,547 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Richard Bloom (i) (Oppose) $39,736 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jeff Miller (i) (Oppose) $22,871 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Orange County Labor Federation Afl-cio Committee On Political Education (cope) John Leos (Support) $1,538 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Parents And Teachers For Putting Students First Cheryl Brown (Support) $34,656 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Peace Officers Research Association Of California (porac) Statewide Independent Expenditure Committee Brian Dahle (Support) $29,513 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Perea Reviving Jobs And The Economy Ballot Measure Committee Human Trafficking. Penalties. Initiative Statute. (Support) $5,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $18 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $18 10/23/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $2,112 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $2,112 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $368 10/21/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $368 10/21/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $2 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $2 10/22/2012 10/30/2012
Regency Outdoor Advertising, Inc. Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction (Oppose) $23,900 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Jordan Brandman (Oppose) $2,597 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Gavin Huntley-fenner (Oppose) $4,668 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Tita Smith (Oppose) $1,418 10/31/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Evan Chemers (Oppose) $4,669 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Katherine Daigle (Oppose) $3,744 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Larry Agran (Oppose) $7,488 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Pk Wong (Oppose) $8,412 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Residents For A Secure Future Sponsored By The Rancho Santa Fe Association Steve Danon (Support) $19,998 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
San Diego Restaurant And Beverage Political Action Committee Sponsored By The California Restaurant Association Penalties Re Human Trafficking (Support) $5,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Southern California Pipe Trades District Council 16 Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $2,588 09/25/2012 10/30/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Rocky Chavez (Support) $157,833 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Ken Cooley (Oppose) $400,000 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
Truck Unit Pac Sponsored By The California Trucking Association Fran Pavley (Oppose) $28,379 10/30/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Beverly Ho-a-yun Popek (Support) $291 10/25/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Matt Haney (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Sam Rodriguez (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Matt Haney (Support) $291 10/25/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Sam Rodriguez (Support) $291 10/25/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Shamann Walton (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012
United Educators Of San Francisco Candidate Pac Beverly Ho-a-yun Popek (Support) $6,260 10/29/2012 10/30/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Muddled Strategy Aside, Brown Still Could Win
Dan Morain @
sacbee.com
From now until Election Day, President Barack Obama will make heavy use of two of California's top Democrats, Attorney General Kamala Harris and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, to help win over voters in the most vital swing states. They'll travel from North Carolina to Florida and Ohio up though Tuesday. But what's good for the president doesn't fit into Gov. Jerry Brown's plans.

Prop. 39 Generates Muted Opposition
David R. Baker @
sfgate.com
Even the slightest proposed tweak in California's tax code can provoke a brawl. So far, Proposition 39 hasn't.

AM Alert: Jerry Brown, Jon Coupal Fire Salvos in Prop 30 War
Micaela Massimino @
blogs.sacbee.com
With six days to go before Election Day, Gov. Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles today, delivering what's being billed as a major luncheon address on his tax measure, Proposition 30.

Dan Walters: What to do if Proposition 30 fails?
sacbee.com
As the political odds turn against Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown's tax measure, political insiders are turning their attention, however reluctantly, to the fallout should, indeed, voters reject the sales and income tax hike on Tuesday.

If Taxes Fail, Republicans Say They Can Help Avoid Cuts To Schools
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Republican leaders in the California Legislature are already planning their next steps if voters reject Gov. Jerry Brown's tax-hike plan next week.

What To Do If Proposition 30 Fails?
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
As the political odds turn against Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown's tax measure, political insiders are turning their attention, however reluctantly, to the fallout should, indeed, voters reject the sales and income tax hike on Tuesday.

Poll
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
We're in the final stretch to Election Day on Nov. 6, with two measures of particular interest to state workers on the ballot: Gov. Jerry Brown's tax increase, Proposition 30, and the campaign finance measure we've closely covered for the last two months, Proposition 32.

Proposition 37 Losing In Late Business Roundtable-Pepperdine Poll
Marc Lifsher @
latimes.com
Backing for Proposition 37, the genetically engineered food labeling initiative, is falling, fast.

L.A. City Council President Herb Wesson Wants Sales Tax Hike
David Zahniser @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Determined to find a new solution to Los Angeles' budget crisis, City Council President Herb Wesson said Tuesday he wants his colleagues to prepare a half-cent sales tax hike proposal for the ballot in the March municipal election.

California's Litigation Rate Fuels Long-running Capitol Battle
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
One of the California Capitol's longest running conflicts pits personal injury attorneys against business, professional and insurance lobbies over the rules governing lawsuits -- who can sue whom and collect how much.

Ad Watch: Anti-Bera Ad Uses Old Remarks For Tax-increase Claims
sacbee.com
An ad funded by a Republican group contends Democrat Ami Bera backs policies that would drive up taxes for many people.

L.A. Democrats Decry Outside Group's Mailer Slamming Elected Officials
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The chair of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party has criticized an outside group's mailer in the bruising election battle between Democratic Reps. Brad Sherman and Howard Berman in the San Fernando Valley. Californians for Integrity in Government send a mailer to Republican voters that slammed three liberal Democratic officeholders who are backing Berman.

Bera Launches Offensive Against Lungren On Abortion
Torey Van Oot @
sacbee.com
Democratic congressional candidate Ami Bera and women's rights activist Sandra Fluke talk to campaign supporters on Tuesday. Fluke said the closeness of the race and contrasting views of Bera and GOP Rep. Dan Lungren caught her attention.

2012 campaign set to cost a record $6 billion
Matea Gold @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON — Accelerating spending by outside groups in the final weeks of the 2012 campaign will drive total spending on federal elections this cycle to a record $6 billion, according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan research group Center for Responsive Politics .

Mac Taylor, California's Prop Master
Patt Morrison @
latimes.com
Whoever it was who coined "Lies, damn lies and statistics" didn't trust numbers. You won't find Mac Taylor subscribing to that. He's the state legislative analyst; his name is there in your ballot pamphlet as the source of independent information about ballot measures and their potential cost to taxpayers. He's had the top job in that office for four years, but the California native joined the effort, fresh from Princeton with a master's degree in public affairs, the same year Jerry Brown was elected governor — the first time. He presides over the fiscal Google of Sacramento, a calm think tank in the shark tank of the Legislature's partisan passions.

Feud With Mary Hayashi Enters Alameda Supervisor Race
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Democratic Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi's last days in the lower house apparently won't mark the end of her long-running battle with a faction of physical therapists.

Two San Gabriel Valley Assembly Candidates Under Fire
Patrick McGreevy and Michael J. Mishak @
latimes.com
A court order is issued against incumbent Roger Hernandez in the 48th District. Candidate Edwin Chau in the 49th District is accused of invasion of privacy.

Dan Morain: Muddled strategy aside, Brown still could win
sacbee.com
From now until Election Day, President Barack Obama will make heavy use of two of California's top Democrats, Attorney General Kamala Harris and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, to help win over voters in the most vital swing states.

Court Says Arizona Group Must Provide Donor Information In Ca Election
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
A Sacramento Superior Court judge tentatively ruled Tuesday that an obscure Arizona nonprofit must document the source of its $11 million initiative contribution, siding with the state's Fair Political Practices Commission.

Obama edge over Romney on healthcare issues shrinking
Noam N. Levey @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- As the presidential race has tightened over the last month, President Obama has seen his advantage over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on healthcare issues erode substantially, according to a new poll from the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation .

Judge backs Jerry Brown, FPPC on Arizona campaign donations
sacbee.com
A Sacramento Superior Court judge tentatively ruled Tuesday that an obscure Arizona nonprofit must submit documents for a state audit of its $11 million initiative contribution, siding with the California Fair Political Practices Commission.

Nurses To Strike Sutter Health Hospitals - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Both sides have negotiated for the past year and a half, but the nurses say sticking points continue to be management proposals for a range of "takeaways" affecting health benefits, sick pay, education leave, the nurses' ability to weigh in on staffing and patient care issues, along with other issues. The walkout is scheduled to start 7 a.m. and end 24 hours later, but striking nurses likely will not return to work until Tuesday because the hospitals hire replacement nurses for five days. Joanne Jung, the union's Sutter division director, said that management at Sutter Delta has proposed eliminating health benefits for nurses who work less than 30 hours a week and that other hospitals are considering making similar proposals.