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THE NOONER for October 30, 2012

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E-7

NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION CONTEST - Vote by Sunday, November 4 at 5 p.m.

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Good morning, there are now officially more than 18 million registered California voters. And, there are probably at least 120,000 more that will be added to the rolls after being verified. That's A LOT of new voters that some extraordinarily close campaigns aren't talking to yet. 

Meanwhile, 2.5 million voters have already cast their ballots and sent them in.

Wow, that was a night of destruction on the teevee. And, besides what happened to the Arizona Cardinals at the hands of the Niners, our hearts are with folks on the Atlantic seaboard.

The California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine are out with their final poll of the cycle. While I had concerns with one of their polls (generally running high on the "progressive side"), it's remarkable how close the latest poll is to my polling averages.  

Obviously, because the polling average contains some older polls (but given lower weight), the difference between the average and a new poll should show the trendline of the measure and the underlying campaign. And, in each of these cases, from my perspective, the differential between today's CBRT release and the average matches the momentum pretty damn closely.

I'm working on a turnout model for tomorrow's Nooner (probably), as we've seen some very interesting developments over the last few days that suggest a much higher registration and engagement than I previously thought. In Los Angeles County, 91,000 registrations were received online on the last day, and only 16k or so of those are in the reg tally. We are already at 18,070,457 voters, and almost certain to reach 18.2 million voters.

There appears to have been a major push, perhaps through social media on the last day of voter registration. If these voters skew young, it could have a 3-4% bounce on several measures, including Prop. 30. We'll get an age breakdown in a few days, but registration right now is skewing 48% Dem, 20% Rep, and 33% other. Compared to the base registration at the September 7 60-day report, new registrations are coming in Dem +4.7%, Rep -10%, other +6.4%. Republican registration will likely drop below 30% for the first time after all registrations are tabluated.

Could the Jerry Brown and "gray area" advocacy on college and university campuses around Prop 30 be leading to these changes? As disclosure, professionally I support Prop. 30, but also wrote last week that I didn't think it would pass. With CBRT/Pepperdine now coming in at 49.2% among its screen of likely voters, this one will be too close to call and may be subject to prolonged counting.

I bring up Prop 30 because, in the final week, the measure appears to be the only one that would be materially affected by this larger voter universe. But, beyond Prop 30, this could have a significant impact on 22 congressional and legislative districts. 

CBRT/PEPPERDINE POLL [M4 Strategies, n=2,115, Online English/Spanish, 10/21-28/2012, +/-3.0%]

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 49.2%
No: 42.9%
Undecided: 7.9%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 37.8%
No: 36.8%%
Undecided: 25.4%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.7%
No: 44.8%
Undecided: 10.5%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 48.8
No: 37.4%
Undecided: 13.8%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 41.3%
No: 47.9%
Undecided: 10.8%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 76.5%
No: 13.7%
Undecided: 9.8%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 67.4%
No: 22.0%
Undecided: 10.6%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 39.1%
No: 50.5%
Undecided: 10.4%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 33.0%
No: 54.1%
Undecided: 12.9%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.5%
No: 28.5%
Undecided: 17.0%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 48.2%
No: 24.8%
Undecided: 27.0%

CD30: The pro-Brad Sherman IE "Citizens for Integrity in Government" sent out a mailer to district Republicans stating "If you love these politicians, vote for Howard Berman." Under the statement are pictures of Maxine Waters, Barney Frank, and Barbara Boxer, which Berman supporters claim makes the mailer racist and anti-gay.  

The group, which has consistently filed as "Citizens for Intergity in Government" making searching the FEC difficult, has spent $434,764 in favor of Sherman and against Berman this year. HSG Campaigns is doing the mail, and the money is mostly from real estate/development interests.

Berman's IE supporters have also sucked up to Republicans this year, buying spots on conservative slates including "Continuing the Republican Revolution."

AD48: Woman files restraining order against Assemblyman Roger Hernandez [Juliette Funes @ SGVN]

AD65: The California Republican Party antes up $50,000 for Chris Norby, and the candidate adds $20,000 to his coffers. Norby has been calling around to his fellow caucus members asking for money, although I'm still skeptical that this district is really in play this cycle. Republican VBM voters currently are running +10, although late registration has split 40% Dem, 22% Rep, and 37% other.

PROP30: Gov. Jerry Brown has yet to pick a central Prop. 30 sales pitch [Michael J. Mishak & Anthony York @ LAT]

SO WHAT? Let's Say Calif. Dems Win State Sen. Supermajority. So what? [Ben Adler @ Capital Public Radio]

SANDY EGGO: In San Diego, Gay Republican Finds He Can’t Count on Gay and Lesbian Vote [Ian Lovett @ NYT]

STRAIGHT OUTTA MONEY: CalPERS sues Compton for missed payments [Dale Kasler @ SacBee]

SACBEE: Editorial: Why is teachers union leaving money on the table?

I FEEL LUCKY: The GOOG comes out with a page where you can punch in your address, get your polling place, along with state and federal races.

TURN-AROUND?: The ABC report of Top 25 newspaper circulation is out--LAT +11.9%, MercNews +0.5%, OCRegister +5.3%.

SANDY: From the looks of this picture, NYC transit is going to be a mess for some time. Yes, those are the tracks under a bunch of water and garbage.

 

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AROUND THE CAPITOL BALLOT MEASURE AVERAGES (with pretty charts)

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)
No: 41.5%
Undecided: 8.6%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 26.7% (+0.2%)
No: 40.7%%
Undecided: 29.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.2% (+0.5%)
No: 45.8%
Undecided: 10.9%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 50.8% (-4.0%)
No: 36.1%
Undecided: 13.1%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.5% (-1.0%)
No: 46.2%
Undecided: 11.3%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 77.3% (-2.4%)
No: 13.4%
Undecided: 8.4%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 68.8% (+1.8%)
No: 20.0%
Undecided: 11.2%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.5% (-3.5%)
No: 42.8%
Undecided: 11.6%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 37.8% (-2.4%)
No: 51.0%
Undecided: 11.0%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 53.2% (-1.0%)
No: 30.7%
Undecided: 16.1%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 46.9% (+2.7%)
No: 25.1%
Undecided: 28.0%

 

 

Ballot Measure Endorsements
PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
Bakersfield Californian N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y
LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
LATimes Y N N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCRegister N N Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
We Vote - Nosotros Votamos Pete Stark (Support) Mailer $12,789.78 10/26/12
We Vote - Nosotros Votamos Eric Swalwell (Oppose) Mailer $12,789.77 10/26/12
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Julia Brownley (Oppose) Mailing, Printing and Postage $14,922.00 10/29/12
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Julia Brownley (Oppose) Radio Advertising $26,029.00 10/29/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Mailer $43,604.22 10/22/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Mailer $7,140.08 10/27/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Mailer $21,420.29 10/27/12
Americans for Tax Reform Scott Peters (Oppose) Media Buy TV $483,801.50 10/29/12
Americans for Tax Reform Scott Peters (Oppose) TV Ad Spot Production $11,425.73 10/28/12
Americans for Tax Reform Scott Peters (Oppose) Media Buy TV $483,801.50 10/29/12
Lincoln Club of Orange County IE Cmte Gary DeLong (Support) Printing and Mailing Costs $5,500.00 10/25/12
American Assoc. of Nurse Anesthetists Lois Capps (Support) Pring, postage and data charge $21,564.30 10/30/12
Friends of Democracy Dan Lungren (Oppose) Phone survey $1,187.34 10/29/12
Environment America Action Fund Scott Peters (Support) Payment for voter contact program $3,200.00 10/29/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Mass mail $11,379.59 10/29/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Mass mail $14,514.33 10/29/12
Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies Raul Ruiz (Oppose) TV/Media Placement $144,999.34 10/29/12
Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies Raul Ruiz (Oppose) TV/Media Production $10,398.45 10/29/12
CREDO Superpac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Web Advertising $2,500.00 10/29/12
CREDO Superpac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Phones $500.00 10/29/12
Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies Jose Hernandez (Oppose) TV/Media Placement $182,532.01 10/29/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Raul Ruiz (Oppose) Media $21,500.00 10/29/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Abel Maldonado (Oppose) Media Buy $81,058.80 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Tony Strickland (Oppose) Media Buy $11,759.85 10/30/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Media Buy $230,310.68 10/30/12
Inland Empire Taxpayers for Jobs Bob Dutton (Support) Design, Printing, Data, Mailing Services, Postage $13,482.00 10/27/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Alarcon For Assembly 2012, Spnsrd & Major Funding By Cnsmr Attys Of Ca Ind. Cmpgn Cmte And L.a. Cnty Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Cmte, Californians For Accountability Richard Alarcon (Support) $3,216 10/27/2012 10/29/2012
Alarcon For Assembly 2012, Spnsrd & Major Funding By Cnsmr Attys Of Ca Ind. Cmpgn Cmte And L.a. Cnty Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Cmte, Californians For Accountability Richard Alarcon (Support) $12,330 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Bob Filner (Support) $656 10/26/2012 10/29/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Yes On Proposition 30 (Support) $656 10/26/2012 10/29/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Bob Filner (Support) $1,489 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) No On Propositon 32 (Oppose) $19 10/26/2012 10/29/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Rob Bonta (Support) $33,780 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
California Black Political Action Committee Cheryl Brown (Support) $2,765 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Craig Huey (Support) $17,506 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Melissa Melendez (Oppose) $17,506 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Rocky Chavez (Oppose) $12,832 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Frank Bigelow (Oppose) $22,528 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
California Taxpayer Protection Committee Carl Demaio (Support) $18,015 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Al Muratsuchi (i) (Support) $43,963 10/27/2012 10/29/2012
California Teamsters Public Affairs Council, Issues Account Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $9,842 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Californians For Civil Justice Reform Pac, Sponsored By The Civil Justice Association Of California Fran Pavley (Oppose) $28,379 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability Sponsored By Dentists, School Employees, Health Care Providers, Correctional Officers And Construction Trades Organizations Frank Bigelow (i) (Support) $26,677 10/27/2012 10/29/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $7,100 10/28/2012 10/29/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Jose Medina (Oppose) $140,096 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Consumers For Choice Ken Cooley (Oppose) $27,383 10/27/2012 10/29/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Marc Levine (Oppose) $3,451 09/26/2012 10/29/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Marc Levine (Oppose) $8,432 09/28/2012 10/29/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Marc Levine (Oppose) $846 09/25/2012 10/29/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Joe Baca, Jr. (Support) $16,237 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Frank Bigelow (Support) $16,769 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Beth Gaines (Support) $25,261 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Ben Hueso (Support) $10,000 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Sharon Quirk-silva (Oppose) $24,030 10/26/2012 10/29/2012
Joseph, George Yes On Prop 33 (Support) $92,070 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Los Angeles County Democratic Party-issues And Advocacy Committee Jackie Lacey (Support) $2,088 10/28/2012 10/29/2012
Nielsen For Senate 2012, Friends And Neighbors For Jim Jim Nielsen (Support) $38,155 10/30/2012 10/29/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Jordan Brandman (Support) $24,976 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Chuck Gibson (Support) $2,512 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association John Leos (Oppose) $7,427 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Charley Wilson (Support) $2,512 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Lucille Kring (Oppose) $7,427 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Betty Olson (Support) $2,512 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Oxnard Firefighters Local 1684 Pac Irene Pinkard (Support) $2,856 08/29/2012 10/29/2012
Oxnard Firefighters Local 1684 Pac Bryan Macdonald (Support) $2,856 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Oxnard Firefighters Local 1684 Pac Dick Jaquez (Support) $2,856 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Peninsula Democratic Coalition Ami Bera (Support) $1,000 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Restore California Pac Jeff Miller (Support) $29,931 10/29/2012 10/29/2012
Santa Clara County Republican Party Measure M (Oppose) $2,524 10/28/2012 10/29/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
CSU Plunges Overboard Into Politics
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
It's an arrogant act that even the University of California, renowned for its haughtiness, would not dare perform, and it's completely and utterly wrong for a tax-supported state agency to engage in what is nothing more than rank political and partisan propaganda. If CSU can get away with this, what prevents any state agency from doing the same with our money?

Campaign Money In Prop. 32 Fight Reaches $124 Million
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
With just over a week before Election Day, the interests backing Proposition 32 and fighting Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative, Proposition 30, have raised $58 million, including a recent six-figure donation from a Texas oil man.

Gov. Jerry Brown Has Yet To Pick A Central Prop. 30 Sales Pitch
Michael J. Mishak and Anthony York @
latimes.com
Mixed messages about Gov. Jerry Brown's tax-hike initiative underscore his struggle pitching Prop. 30 to taxpayers and have provided fodder for foes.

Assembly Candidate's Illegal Entry Becomes Campaign Fodder
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Republican Pedro Rios' candidacy has sparked controversy in a Central Valley Assembly district after it was publicly revealed that he came to the United States, at age 9, as an undocumented immigrant.

Citizens United At Heart Of Mystery Donor Dispute, Lawyers Say
Kevin Yamamura @
sacbee.com
Attorneys representing an obscure Arizona nonprofit that spent $11 million this month on California initiative wars told a court Monday that the federal Citizens United campaign-speech ruling is one reason the group can shield its donors.

Gov. Jerry Brown Says Shadow Lurkers Should Be 'ashamed'
latimesblogs.latimes.com
At a Cal State Chico rally attended by hundreds Monday, Gov. Jerry Brown cast Proposition 30 as a choice between teachers and students backing his call for higher taxes and the "shadowy figures" opposed to his plan. Brown was referring...

Jerry Brown Urges Student Vote For Tax Measure, $250 Refund
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com


Election Lawyers Ready To Challenge Alleged Illegal Voting Activity
washingtonpost.com
Thousands of attorneys, representing the two major presidential candidates, their parties, unions, civil rights groups and voter-fraud watchdogs, are in place across the country, poised to challenge election results that may be called into question by machine failures, voter suppression or other allegations of illegal activity.

CalPERS Sues Compton Over Missed Payments
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
A second California city has fallen behind on its payments to CalPERS, prompting a lawsuit by the big pension fund.

Think Tank Report Slams Jerry Brown's School Finance Plan
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has been seeking implementation of a "weighted student formula" that would give more school money to districts with high levels of poverty and other educational impediments and low levels of achievement.

Supreme Court May Decide Soon Whether To Weigh In On Gay Marriage, Including California's Prop. 8
contracostatimes.com
Justices slated to consider whether to review state and federal same-sex marriage challenges at Nov. 20 conference, a move that could lead to a decision by June.

Can Gov. Jerry Brown Turn Arizona Controversy Into Votes For Tax Plan?
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The controversy over a mysterious Arizona nonprofit has become a fixture of Gov. Jerry Brown's stump speech as he campaigns for tax hikes.

Women "Obama Defectors" Could Swing Race
Carla Marinucci @
sfgate.com
With polls showing that Republican Mitt Romney has significantly eroded President Obama's once-robust lead among women, both parties have turned their attention in the final days of the 2012 campaign to a key slice of the women's vote that could be crucial to victory - millions of potential "Obama defectors."

California Officials To Review Licensing For Healthcare Partners
Chad Terhune @
latimes.com
Following a patient lawsuit filed last month, California officials say they are reviewing whether HealthCare Partners and its medical groups are in compliance with state law.

Jerry Brown, Other Elected Pols Had Seats For Giants' Wins In S.F.
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

How Romney, Obama Do In California May Tip Scales In Close House, State Races
Torey Van Oot @
sacbee.com
Tony Krvaric knew he wasn't going to get much help from the national presidential campaign in his effort to get people to the polls to boost local GOP candidates to victory. So the San Diego County Republican Party chairman spent more than $15,000 on Mitt Romney bumper stickers, lawn signs and other campaign swag to motivate voters and volunteers.

Tough issues, choices facing school board candidates
utsandiego.com
Gov. Jerry Brown’s education tax measure might be the star of the November ballot in San Diego County and throughout the state. But there's dozens of school board elections as well.

Dan Walters: CSU plunges overboard into politics
sacbee.com
The California State University system has traditionally been the steady workhorse of California higher education, generating the engineers, teachers, accountants and middle-managers that any society needs.

Taxing Questions On The Ballot
Daniel Weintraub @
healthycal.org
As Californians head to the polls, taxes will be the biggest issue on the state ballot--again.

Poll Finds 2012 Race Dead Even, Foresees Relatively High Turnout
Paul West @
latimes.com
With only one week left in the 2012 campaign, a major new poll is projecting a relatively high level of voter turnout in the presidential race.

The Buzz: Assembly candidate draws fire after sending out Social Security number
sacbee.com
In an election year marked by waves of political attacks, one state legislative candidate is standing out for a tactic that targets his opponent's wife.