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THE NOONER for October 29, 2012

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E-8 

NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION CONTEST - Vote by Sunday, November 4 at 5 p.m.

##CONTESTLINK##

Over the weekend, I sent out the link for The Nooner's November 2012 election contest. In June, 390 subscribers participated in the contest, and I hope we beat that participation. You can watch the aggregated picks live at http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/contest/crowd.html. As with June, your individual picks are confidential. You decide what username you'd like your aggregate score to displayed under.

UNPREDICTABLE: Who would have thought that we'd be one week out from the presidential and the October surprise would be a hurricane? This event could literally decide the race, although to whose benefit, nobody can tell at this point.

Will Obama be handed a "presidential moment" in an election largely devoid of one (Benghazi, arguably was a fumbled one)? Will Obama's superior ground campaign in Ohio and Virginia be interrupted, because of either logistics or simply because volunteers stay home to watch Anderson Cooper in a tight black shirt? And, will we even know where the race is later this week, or will polling have been sufficiently disrupted that the daily trackers are FUBAR?

Of course, Nate Silver is all over it

PDI's REG REPORT: 1,225,918 registrations (933,770 new voters--5.5% increase) [NOT A FINAL REPORT]

Paper/Online breakdown of new registrants: 57%/43%

Partisan breakdown of total registrants: 48% Dem, 19% Rep, 32% Other

PDI's VBM REPORT: County registrars have received and reported 2,160,669 ballots (25%) from California voters. The partisan breakdown is 43% Dem, 37% Rep, 20% other.

That's pretty consistent with PPIC's likely voter model for this cycle: 

  • Democrats 44%
  • Republicans 35% 
  • No Party Preference: 18%
  • Other parties: 3%

Here's the LAT/USC breakdown:

  • Democrats 43%
  • Republicans 32% 
  • No Party Preference: 20%
  • Other parties: 5%

However, if you take into account the significant underperformance of Republicans in new registrations and the fact that these new registrations are late, overall turnout will likely overperform both PPIC and USC'ss likely voter model for Democrats. The share of independent voters will likely be in the LAT/USC range or slightly greater.

In close legislative and ballot measure races, the late registration showing thus far suggests we may see a few points to the "Democrat" side than are used in most polling models. The national parties and their allies have keyed in on this, which is why the biggest battlegrounds (CD07, CD10, CD36) are in what should be such in a tidal year for the Democrats. It's also why I'm moving all three to the "toss-up" column.

CD36: In the final 45 days of registration, 22,105 registrations of new voters came in, with a split of 45% Dem, 25% Rep, 26% other. This suggests a break to the Dems down the stretch that can easily overcome the 5% advantage the GOP current has in processed VBM ballots. Together with the Desert Sun's endorsement yesterday of Raul Ruiz, there is something moving here (Sun previously has supported Mary Bono Mack). 

CD08: Republicans duel for High Desert seat [Ben Goad @ PE]

BRO, CAN YOU SIGN MY CARD? Voter Registration: New Republicans Claim They Were Flipped [Jim Miller & Imran Ghori @ PE]

SAN BERDON'T: Cautionary pension tale of bankrupt city [Chron editorial] 

NOLO CONTENDRE: Mary Hayashi's theft focus of Morals PAC [Matier & Ross @ SFChron]

POP! El Monte soda tax plan faces crush by beverage industry [Sam Allen @ LAT]

THE DISHONOR ROLL: State strips 23 schools of API rankings for cheating [Howard Blume @ LAT]

 

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Ballot Measure Endorsements
PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
Bakersfield Californian N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y
LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
LATimes Y N N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCRegister N N Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Scott Peters (Oppose) Printing, Postage, Design and Mail $16,682.00 10/28/12
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Scott Peters (Oppose) Radio Advertising $20,025.00 10/28/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Website $1,176.50 10/27/12
House Majority PAC Tony Stickland (Oppose) Direct Mail $12,351.05 10/26/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $333.20 10/27/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $540.00 10/27/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $1,500.00 10/27/12
We Vote - Nosotros Votamos Ami Bera (Support) Radio Advertisements $9,000.00 10/27/12
We Vote - Nosotros Votamos Dan Lungren (Oppose) Radio Advertisements $9,000.00 10/27/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Mailer $48,198.02 10/27/12
Spirit of Democracy America Gregg Ims (Oppose) Campaign Signage $9,992.47 10/27/12
Congressional Leadership Fund Lois Capps (Oppose) TV/Media Placement $132,333.20 10/26/12
Congressional Leadership Fund Lois Capps (Oppose) TV/Media Placement $33,157.40 10/26/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Raul Ruiz (Oppose) Media $173,412.50 10/26/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Lois Capps (Oppose) Media $58,125.13 10/26/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Media $234,928.75 10/26/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Ami Bera (Oppose) Media $238,490.00 10/26/12
Friends of Democracy Dan Lungren (Oppose) Web ads $37,500.00 10/27/12
Friends of Democracy Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Web ads $14,500.00 10/27/12
Friends of Democracy Dan Lungren (Oppose) Phone survey $12,606.00 10/27/12
Friends of Democracy Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Phone survey $1,095.62 10/27/12
Friends of Democracy Dan Lungren (Oppose) Web ads $37,500.00 10/27/12
American Action Network Jose Hernandez (Oppose) TV Purchase $573,295.92 10/27/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Direct Mail & Postage $14,372.59 10/26/12
NARAL Pro-Choice America Tony Strickland (Oppose) Printing, postage, mailshop fees $6,642.90 10/25/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $14,199.52 10/26/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $53,078.34 10/26/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $29,260.63 10/26/12
National Nurses United for Patient Protection Ami Bera (Support) Online advertising buy $25,000.00 10/26/12
National Nurses United for Patient Protection Scott Peters (Support) Printing $4,667.18 10/26/12
National Nurses United for Patient Protection Mark Takano (Support) Website design & online advertising buy $26,800.00 10/26/12
Citizens for Prosperity and Good Government Brad Sherman (Support) Mailing $16,500.00 10/26/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Bosetti For Assembly 2012; Northstate Farm And Business Pac, Supporting Rick Brian Dahle (Oppose) $7,678 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Bosetti For Assembly 2012; Northstate Farm And Business Pac, Supporting Rick Brian Dahle (Oppose) $2,500 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 30 - Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guar (Support) $830 10/26/2012 10/28/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 30 - Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guar (Support) $1,182 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 32 - Prohibits Political Contributions By Pa (Oppose) $1,182 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 35 (Support) $16,539 10/17/2012 10/28/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Ken Cooley (Oppose) $36,079 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Los Angeles County Democratic Party-issues And Advocacy Committee Temp Taxes To Fund Educ. Guranteed Local Pub. Sfty (Support) $2,264 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Los Angeles County Democratic Party-issues And Advocacy Committee Prohibits Pol. Contrib. By Payroll Deductions (Oppose) $4,232 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Jordan Brandman (Oppose) $10,589 10/28/2012 10/28/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Jordan Brandman (Oppose) $4,161 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Cont (Oppose) $1,018 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Jim Beall (Support) $886 10/22/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guaranteed Loca (Support) $213 10/22/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Jim Beall (Support) $6,361 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guaranteed Loca (Support) $1,018 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Paul Fong (Support) $886 10/22/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Cont (Oppose) $213 10/22/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign Paul Fong (Support) $6,361 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Santa Clara County Republican Party Measure D (Oppose) $28,223 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Issues Account Sponsored By South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Education/public Safety Funding (Support) $145 10/25/2012 10/28/2012
South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Issues Account Sponsored By South Bay Afl-cio Labor Council Education/public Safety Funding (Support) $837 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Jose Medina (Oppose) $24,001 10/27/2012 10/28/2012
Alarcon For Assembly 2012, Spnsrd & Major Funding By Cnsmr Attys Of Ca Ind. Cmpgn Cmte And L.a. Cnty Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Cmte, Californians For Accountability Richard Alarcon (Support) $20,117 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Alarcon For Assembly 2012, Spnsrd & Major Funding By Cnsmr Attys Of Ca Ind. Cmpgn Cmte And L.a. Cnty Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Cmte, Californians For Accountability Raul Bocanegra (Oppose) $8,952 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $11,097 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Asian American Small Business Pac Al Muratsuchi (Support) $450 10/27/2012 10/27/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $42,378 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca Jr. (i) (Support) $26,280 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $2,710 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $8,640 10/27/2012 10/27/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $23,854 10/27/2012 10/27/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 35 (Support) $241 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Democratic State Central Committee Of California Proposition 40 (Support) $234 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Golden State Leadership Fund Pac Roger Hernandez (Support) $14,633 10/27/2012 10/27/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $4,789 10/23/2012 10/27/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $785 10/24/2012 10/27/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $7,686 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Bill Berryhill (i) (Oppose) $75,547 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jeff Miller (i) (Oppose) $70,311 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jeff Miller (i) (Oppose) $47,440 10/27/2012 10/27/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Richard Bloom (i) (Oppose) $57,092 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Bill Batey (i) (Oppose) $14,376 10/26/2012 10/27/2012
Yes We Can Abel Guillen (Support) $13,573 10/27/2012 10/27/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown's Local Strategy On School Funding Falling Short For Prop. 30
David Siders @
sacbee.com
One reason several months ago to think Gov. Jerry Brown's ballot measure to raise taxes might have a better chance of passing than previous, failed tax initiatives was its potential to look more like a local issue than a statewide one.

Voter Registration: New Republicans Claim They Were Flipped
JIM MILLER, IMRAN GHORI @
pe.com
More than two-dozen voters who recently re-reregistered as Republicans never gave permission for the switch, the Riverside-area voters told The Press-Enterprise.

Some Thoughts On Four Ballot Measures
George Skelton @
latimes.com
It's time to stop vacillating. Election day is almost here. There are still a few loose ends to straighten out on the California ballot.

Free-speech Debate In Roseville School District
Diana Lambert @
sacbee.com
A decision by the Roseville Joint Union High School District board this month to give the superintendent the right to approve advertising content in school newspapers and yearbooks has sparked a First Amendment civil rights debate within the district.

San Bernardino, Compton Stop Paying CalPERS
Ed Mendel @
calpensions.com
CalPERS filed court actions against two financially troubled cities, San Bernardino and Compton, after they stopped making legally required payments to the big pension fund, a rare default not made in the Stockton and Vallejo bankruptcies.

Job Front: Sacramento Region Job Postings Continue To Rise - Job Front - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Sacramento-area employers continue to post jobs at a healthy clip with strong demand showing in health care, information technology and retail.

California Teacher Unions Rated As Nation's 6th Most Powerful
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
California's teacher unions - principally the huge California Teachers Association - are the nation's sixth strongest when it comes to raising money and influencing politics and educational policy, according to a new study by the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, an educational think tank in Washington, D.C. The group, which includes former U.S. Education Secretary Rod Paige on its board, advocates for charter schools.

Presidential campaigns adjust to Hurricane Sandy
Christi Parsons @
latimes.com
Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley said he would halt early voting in his largely Democratic state on Monday but President Obama's reelection campaign says they don’t yet assume that Hurricane Sandy will significantly disrupt their voter turnout operations in critical swing states.

Circle of Life of Sacramento's District 2 Candidate Allen Wayne Warren
ifthepublicblogger.blogspot.com
With the Mayor's agenda and the city's future based on the outcome of the local elections, Sacramento's District 2 has become a high stakes game of chess.

On state ballots: Pot, taxes, unions
Kevin Robillard @
politico.com
Only 174 ballot propositions across the country would guarantee any real policy changes.

California School Districts Could Take Credit Rating Hit If Tax Measures Fail
Local @
mercurynews.com
Moody’s says that without passage of either Prop. 30 or Prop. 38, some California school districts will face bailouts, bankruptcy or higher borrowing costs.

Obama recruits door-to-door campaigners with election night offer
Christi Parsons @
latimes.com
Supporters who want to spend election night with President Obama can earn a ticket with a chore: two days of door-knocking to help turn out the vote in neighboring Wisconsin.

Prop. 37's labeling requirements are especially perplexing
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
This year's ballot contains a number of highly complex measures but none is as bewildering as Proposition 37, which purports to provide Californians with information about genetically modified foods.

GOP Invokes 'Eleventh Commandment' In Bob Dutton-Gary Miller Race
Andrew Edwards @
dailybulletin.com
A dispatch of negative ads in the congressional race between two Republican candidates, Rep. Gary Miller and state Sen. Bob Dutton, has the state's top GOP official on record that California Republicans need to reaffirm their adherence to the "Eleventh Commandment."

Obama Looks To Young Voters, Many Of Whom Seem Uninspired
Mark Z. Barabak @
latimes.com
Most young voters, like those in the battleground state of Colorado, back Obama, but fewer of them seem inclined to cast ballots compared with 2008.

Candidate Chen Twists Facts For Attack Ad
Martin Wisckol @
totalbuzz.ocregister.com
More attack ads twist the truth than I have time to correct. But I think I should at least set the record straight when it’s my words that are misrepresented.

Supreme Court may decide soon whether to weigh in on gay marriage, including California's Prop. 8
Howard Mintz @
mercurynews.com
Justices slated to consider whether to review state and federal same-sex marriage challenges at Nov. 20 conference, a move that could lead to decision by next June

Newspapers weigh in on election; Obama loses support since 2008
Mitchell Landsberg @
latimes.com
Certainly not as much as they once did, but that doesn't stop most newspapers (including this one) from exercising their 1st Amendment right to spout off about their choice of candidate, and it doesn't stop the presidential campaigns from breathlessly reporting each and every endorsement as if it were handed down by the Oracle of Delphi.

As Romney Edges Toward Moderation, Ryan Takes A Lower Profile
Alana Semuels @
latimes.com
As Mitt Romney shows a more moderate side in his battle with President Obama, conservative running mate Paul Ryan lowers his profile and talks less about his budget plans.

The Caucus: Hurricane Sandy Disrupts Campaign as Obama Cancels Appearances
thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com
President Obama on Monday morning abandoned political campaigning in the face of the huge storm barreling down on the East Coast, canceling an event in Florida and quickly heading back to Washington to coordinate emergency response from the White House.

Akin Turns Gaffes Into Jokes in Missouri Senate Race
nytimes.com
Todd Akin, the Republican candidate for Senate in Missouri, became known nationally for his gaffes, and now he is trying to convince voters at home that he is not an extremist.