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THE NOONER for October 23, 2012

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E-14

HOW 'BOUT THEM GIANTS?

VBM REPORT: 1,035,098 (12% of VBMs--composition:Dem 43%, Rep 37%, Other 20%) have voted. As a bonus, Paul ran a cities report. Nearly 10% of CD52's total voters have already cast their ballot.

Good morning from Riverside. If I was thinking about redistricting last year, I probably would not have thrown the dart here to predict this as the hottest political region in the state. As I have breakfast here at the Mission Inn, I'm in the only overlapping competitive Assembly, Senate and congressional races in the state. After all, the current representatives of this district--Brian Nestande in the Assembly, Bob Dutton in the Senate, and Ken Calvert in the U.S. Congress.

In the 2011 redistricting, however, the commission didn't follow the 2001 lines of grabbing downtown Riverside into districts that stretched east. Instead, in each case--AD61, SD31 and CD41, Riverside was paired up with Moreno Valley and stretched down along the I-215 corridor, home to lots of suburban commuters. The largest such district--SD31, added in the city of Corona, along the 91 corridor between Orange County and the heart of the Inland Empire.

Two of the incumbents--Congressman Ken Calvert and Assemblymember Brian Nestande--are running to the south and east respectively in safe Republican districts (although Nestande has popped on the radar because of the hot overlapping congressional race between Mary Bono Mack and Raul Ruiz). The third, Bob Dutton, is running against Gary Miller for Congress in CD31, just north in San Bernardino.

In AD61, we have former Riverside Community College District trustee Jose Medina (D) running against Moreno Valley city councilman Bill Batey (R). Notably, if elected, Batey would be the first African-American Republican in the Legislature. However, fundraising and the willingness of Democratic party leaders to open the cash spigot to the tune of over $800,000, have a significant cash advantage for Medina. And, through yesterday, with 11% of VBM voters already casting ballots, Democrats are turning in vote-by-mail ballots at +1% over registration, while GOP is -1%. Batey is a strong candidate, but a presidential year is likely not the best year to grab this Democratic-leaning seat.

For SD31, we have Assemblymember Jeff Miller (who currently represents a district to the west covering Corono and southern Orange County) against Richard Roth. Roth, a businessman and military officer, was recruited by Darrell Steinberg in this chance to pick up a seat currently held by Republicans. It wasn't an easy path to the top two for Roth, as former Assemblymember Steve Clute found strong support among local activists and captured the state Democratic Party's endorsement. In the end, Roth easily came in second, capturing 6,600 more votes than Clute. Clute subsequently endorsed Miller, ending his political career among Democratic activists. At 39.5% of registration, Republicans maintain a 0.2% advantage in this district, although it's attributed to a huge paid voter registration drive over the summer that reportedly had a suspicious number of change-of-registrations to the GOP. This will likely be the most expensive state legislative race in the state, and could very well come down to trailing ballots for days after the election.

Finally, we have CD41, pitting Riverside Community College District trustee Mark Takano against Riverside mayor County Supervisor John Tavaglione. Dems have a 3.2% registration advantage, although that may be understated as the summer GOP voter registration drive that some label as suspicious boosted registration by 3.6%. After all, this is a district Obama won by 20 points in 2008 and Jerry Brown won by nearly 12 points in 2010. The big party money isn't playing here, although Tavaglione had a significant cash advantage as of September 30. Nevertheless, Takano has to be considered the very slight favorite here, and like so many other places, Latino turnout will be key.

QUOTE DU JOUR: "I take a bag lunch, I ride on Southwest, I take the damn middle seat," . . . "I hate spending money ... I love to cut stuff. I'm not a big spender."

-  Jerry Brown [David Siders @ SacBee

CD15: After 40 years, California's Rep. Pete Stark faces tough battle [Richard Simon @ LAT]

SD37: Mimi Walters' Name To Remain On Ballot [Brian Joseph @ OCR]

AD12: Kristin Olsen says "no" to Grover.

AD50: WeHo Assembly Race Turns Sexy in an Ugly Way

 

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Ballot Measure Endorsements
PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
Bakersfield Californian N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y
LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
LATimes Y N N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCRegister N N Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action Gary Miller (Support) Phone Calls $64.96 10/20/12
National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action Tony Strickland (Support) Phone Calls $104.94 10/20/12
National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action Jeff Denham (Support) Phone Calls $129.97 10/20/12
National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action Ricky Gill (Support) Phone Calls $96.71 10/20/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $234.81 10/20/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $540.00 10/20/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $1,500.00 10/20/12
Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies Raul Ruiz (Oppose) TV Placement $144,945.84 10/21/12
Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies Raul Ruiz (Oppose) TV/Media Production $11,995.00 10/21/12
Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies John Hernandez (Oppose) TV Placement $200,005.53 10/21/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Phone Banks $19,481.49 10/20/12
Stand With America Gregg Imus (Oppose) Printing, Design, Data, Postage and Consulting $21,604.01 10/22/12
Stand With America Tony Strickland (Support) Staff Time $6.08 10/22/12
Stand With America Tony Strickland (Support) Staff Time $24.16 10/22/12
Stand With America Tony Strickland (Support) Staff Time $17.18 10/22/12
American Society of Anesthesiologists PAC Pete Stark (Support) Radio Production and Placement $75,000.00 10/22/12
American Society of Anesthesiologists PAC Ami Bera (Support) Radio Production and Placement $75,000.00 10/22/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Asian American Small Business Pac Paul Fong (Support) $1,000 10/21/2012 10/22/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Bill Quirk (i) (Support) $15,828 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Fran Pavley (i) (Support) $10,000 10/21/2012 10/22/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Todd Zink (i) (Oppose) $10,000 10/21/2012 10/22/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Todd Zink (Support) $31,026 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
California Calls Action Fund: A Coalition Of Social Justice Organizations For Prop. 30 And Against Prop. 32 Prop. 39 - Tax Treatment For Multistate Businesses (Support) $2,538 10/20/2012 10/22/2012
California Calls Action Fund: A Coalition Of Social Justice Organizations For Prop. 30 And Against Prop. 32 Prop. 34 - Death Penalty Repeal (Support) $2,538 10/20/2012 10/22/2012
California Calls Action Fund: A Coalition Of Social Justice Organizations For Prop. 30 And Against Prop. 32 Prop. 40 - Redistricting. State Senate Districts. (Support) $2,538 10/20/2012 10/22/2012
California Calls Action Fund: A Coalition Of Social Justice Organizations For Prop. 30 And Against Prop. 32 Prop. 36 - Three Strikes Law. Sentencing For Repea (Support) $2,538 10/20/2012 10/22/2012
California Calls Action Fund: A Coalition Of Social Justice Organizations For Prop. 30 And Against Prop. 32 Prop. 37 - Genetically Engineered Foods. (Support) $2,538 10/20/2012 10/22/2012
California Calls Action Fund: A Coalition Of Social Justice Organizations For Prop. 30 And Against Prop. 32 Prop. 33 - Changes To Law To Allow Auto Insurance (Oppose) $2,538 10/20/2012 10/22/2012
California Credit Union League Political Action Committee Rudy Salas (Support) $5,000 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $17,635 10/19/2012 10/22/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $928 10/18/2012 10/22/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $4,687 10/21/2012 10/22/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Jose Medina (Oppose) $90,086 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Fran Pavley (Oppose) $118,334 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $99,515 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Citizens For California Reform Bill Berryhill (Support) $24,613 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Jeff Miller (Support) $12,500 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Rudy Salas (Support) $12,878 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 30 - Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guar (Support) $5,115 10/19/2012 10/22/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 32 - Prohibits Political Contributions By Pa (Oppose) $9,063 10/09/2012 10/22/2012
Democratic Central Committee Of Marin Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guaranteed Loca (Support) $1,428 10/19/2012 10/22/2012
Democratic Central Committee Of Marin Phohibits Political Contributions By Payroll Deduc (Oppose) $1,428 10/19/2012 10/22/2012
Ibew 332 Issues Account (sponsored By International Brotherhood Of Electrical Workers Local 332) Political Contributions By Payroll Deductions (Oppose) $1,178 10/16/2012 10/22/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers Association Richard Roth (Oppose) $150,644 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Jimmy Gomez (Support) $7,051 10/21/2012 10/22/2012
Stop The Insurance Industry Deception, No On 33, Sponsored By Consumer Watchdog Campaign Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction (Oppose) $11,058 10/22/2012 10/22/2012
Theatrical Stage Employees Local 16 International Alliance Of Theatrical Stage Employees (iatse) Pac Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. (Oppose) $1,500 10/22/2012 10/22/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown Defends Tax Initiative, Says 'i Hate Spending Money'
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown, campaigning in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley for his ballot initiative to raise taxes, said on "Good Day LA" this morning that his initiative is not a "shell game" aimed at funding non-education programs.

Funding Fight On If Prop. 30 Fails
Kevin Yamamura @
sacbee.com
Long before political ads dominated the airwaves and arguments erupted over which Nov. 6 tax initiative best serves schools, Gov. Jerry Brown sought crucial support from county officials in a cramped conference room one block from the Capitol.

Bill Clinton To Endorse More Democratic Congressional Candidates
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Former President Bill Clinton will appear at a rally at UC Irvine Tuesday to endorse more Democratic congressional candidates. Earlier, Clinton weighed in on some Northern California races and backed Prop. 30, a governor-backed schools tax measure on the Nov. 6 ballot.

Is Jerry Brown Worried About Proposition 30?
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
As Election Day – and Halloween – approach, Jerry Brown may be getting spooked that his tax increase, Proposition

The $11 Million Gift To Jerry Brown :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
The mysterious $11 million dropped into the No on Proposition 30 and Yes on Proposition 32 campaign last week is proving a godsend for Gov. Jerry Brown and his union allies because they can now scream about money laundering by shadowy out-of-state groups rather than defending the merits of the Brown tax proposal that is becoming a harder and harder sell.

Jerry Brown's Dog, Sutter, Dispatched To Help Tax Campaign
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Some politicians reward their campaign volunteers with dinner or a signed photograph. Gov. Jerry Brown will let you meet his dog.

Dan Walters: Is Jerry Brown worried about Proposition 30?
sacbee.com
As Election Day – and Halloween – approach, Jerry Brown may be getting spooked that his tax increase, Proposition 30, won't make it.

Mimi Walters' Name To Remain On Ballot
Brian Joseph @
totalbuzz.ocregister.com
State Sen. Mimi Walters has won a civil lawsuit that attempted to remove her from the Nov. 6 ballot on the grounds that she doesn’t really live in the 37th Senate District.

Higher Power Could Help Oakland: Governor - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Jackson asked Brown to declare a state of emergency to open Oakland's door to state assistance that could help curb escalating street violence that has claimed 102 lives this year. Jackson's plea for help from the governor comes almost a week after Oakland Police Chief Howard Jordan told the City Council the department lacked a crime reduction plan and did not have the resources to develop one. Jackson said he felt compelled to put Brown on the spot because Oakland residents have been "abandoned" by city leaders unwilling or unable to make the reduction of street violence the city's highest priority. In 2004, Oakland Measure Y, a city parcel tax to increase police services and youth anticrime programs, promised to ensure the city maintained a mandatory minimum of 803 police officers. Last year, shortly after the resignation of former Police Chief Anthony Batts, Mayor Jean Quan responded to public doubts with a plan she promised would target crime on about 100 blocks identified as the areas with the city's most frequent and violent crimes. Brown was at the church to promote Prop. 30, the initiative on the Nov. 6 ballot that calls for a sales tax hike and an increase in income taxes from the state's wealthiest residents to fund education and other programs.

More Than 1 Million Californians Have Already Voted By Mail
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Election Day is still two weeks away, but more than 1 million Californians have already cast a ballot.

Ad Watch: Lungren Ad Lists Bera's Holdings - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Gold River, is running a new radio ad questioning the résumé of his opponent, Democrat Ami Bera. They are competing for the 7th Congressional District, an eastern Sacramento County seat considered one of the country's most competitive House battles. Here is the text of the ad and an analysis by Torey Van Oot of The Bee Capitol Bureau.

Donor Rule Challenge Is All About Politics :: Fox&hounds
foxandhoundsdaily.com
In the primary, the out-of-state Lance Armstrong Foundation gave $1.5 million in undisclosed donations to the campaign to pass Proposition 29, the cigarette tax increase measure.

Unions Remember State Hospital Employee Killed Two Years Ago
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
A union coalition of state hospital employees has scheduled observances around the state on Tuesday to remember Donna Gross, a psychiatric technican killed while on duty.

In 2012, Mining Data About Voters, And Then 'nanotargeting' Message, Is The New Way To Campaign
Local @
contracostatimes.com
While Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are on the campaign trail, their staffers are writing algorithms to influence voters, knowing precisely whether they drive pickups orPriuses, go to church on Sundays, get their news from Drudge or Huffington Post, and even whether their baby wears Pampers.

Capitol Weekly's Voter Guide
John Howard @
capitolweekly.net
California’s 2012 ballot lineup contains the most far-reaching proposals for public-education finance in 25 years. But equally significant to California’s political landscape is the acceleration of a trend in which a small number of wealthy individuals pour in tens of millions of dollars to push their political beliefs.

Sf District 5 Candidate Backers Flee - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Candidates, public officials and organizations continue to react to two game-changers in the previous two weeks: groping allegations against a leading candidate of the left, Julian Davis, and appointed incumbent Supervisor Christina Olague's surprising vote to oppose Mayor Ed Lee's charge of official misconduct against Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi. On Monday, the San Francisco League of Pissed-Off Voters joined the Bay Guardian, the San Francisco Examiner, Assemblyman Tom Ammiano, and Supervisors John Avalos, David Campos and Jane Kim in retracting their endorsements of Davis after he sent a cease-and-desist letter to a city employee who claimed that he groped her six years ago. Though Olague's support for Lee's candidacy turned off many progressives, political observers say her defiance of him in the Mirkarimi vote may be what draws some of them back, even if they won't admit it publicly. Thea Selby alluded to both the Davis incident and Mirkarimi vote as evidence of a "war on women" at a recent forum sponsored by the University of San Francisco. Andrew Resignato and Hope Johnson, two candidates who were shut out of the USF forum for not raising enough cash, recently announced they are forming a "people's ticket" and asked voters to rank them first and second or first and third on their ballots to protest money-driven politics.

5 Things Obama, Romney Must Accomplish In Foreign Policy Debate
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
The Democratic incumbent is hoping that he can use the third debate to regain a clear advantage on global issues. And the former Massachusetts governor is hoping to use it to close the deal with any voters who haven't yet made up their minds. Here are...

Voting Campaign Targets Asian Americans
Anh Do @
latimes.com
Community groups are urging Asians, who constitute 10% of the state's registered voters, to take part in the upcoming election.

Elk Grove Sharply Reduces Suspensions Of Foster Youth | Edsource Today
edsource.org
Elk Grove Unified has dramatically reduced suspensions and expulsions of foster youth by applying the principles of the recently passed law, Assembly Bill 1909, long before the bill was written.

New Ad Targets Jerry Brown's Tax Plan
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

Sandra Day O'connor Courts S.F. Audience - Sfgate
sfgate.com
O'Connor, 82, told the story without any hint of bitterness as she chronicled bits of her early life growing up on an isolated Arizona farm and her historic role on the nation's highest court at a sold-out San Francisco Commonwealth Club appearance at the Herbst Theatre. Through a moderator, O'Connor took several written questions from the audience, ranging from her thoughts on declaring a holiday for national elections to whether judges should be elected. O'Connor sided with the Supreme Court majority in stopping the Florida presidential recount, which ultimately led to the 2000 election of George W. Bush. Active since her retirement from the bench in 2006, O'Connor still occasionally sits in on federal appellate court cases and promotes civic education, including her own website, icivics.org, which features interactive games, including mock trials over historical cases. Political apathyWhile she declined to predict the outcome of the presidential election, she decried the lack of participation in the political process by those who can vote but don't. Several of the students were from Balboa High School's Law Academy, where they had studied the nation's highest court and were in awe of the living historical figure onstage before them.

Prop. 30 Failure Would Mean Enrollment Caps, Fewer Classes At Local Public Colleges
Beau Yarbrough @
dailybulletin.com
The Nov. 6 ballot initiative includes a proposed quarter-cent sales-tax and income-tax increase on individuals making more than $250,000 a year.

L.A. County Assessor John Noguez Can't Make Bail, Stays In Jail
Jack Dolan @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Los Angeles County Assessor John Noguez, who has spent the last six days in jail after his arrest on suspicion of taking bribes to lower property tax bills, will stay behind bars a while longer.

Obama Feisty, Romney Subdued In Debate
Richard S. Dunham @
sfgate.com
President Obama barely had to break a sweat in the final debate of the 2012 campaign. While the social-media world was abuzz with tweets about Mitt Romney's alleged perspiration problem, a cool, calculating Obama portrayed his Republican presidential challenger as an inconstant opportunist in a constantly dangerous world.

Survey: Drinking Water Compliance Eludes Some California Schools
californiawatch.org
The high-tech fountain, which has also filled nearly 9,000 water bottles at Turlock High, south of Modesto, is part of the district’s effort to comply with recently passed state and federal laws that require free, fresh water to be served at schools wherever meals are served or eaten.