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THE NOONER for October 16, 2012

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E-21

SIREN: In Gallup's daily tracklng, Romney moves to a 4 point lead on the day of the debate.

VBM REPORT: We've got our first report of 86,000 absentee ballots received and reported by counties from Paul Mitchell and Co.

Midnight last night was the deadline for federal committees to file their reports for the third quarter (7/1-9/30). You can find the reports here, although not all the data has been processed into the FEC's downloadable forms and, thus the Around The Capitol district pages. About one-third are updated so far [quick look].

BERMAN SHERMAN END GAME

In 22 days, a liberal Jewish Democrat attorney from the San Fernando Valley will wake up in without a future in Congress. It has become perhaps the most personal race in the country, and nearly came to blows at a debate last week.

Howard Berman's campaign e-mails: Brad "Sherman Free Fall Significant, Confirms Independent Pollster Encino, CA – The first independent poll taken since Brad Sherman physically confronted Howard Berman during a candidate debate at a local college shows Sherman clinging to a six-point lead. . . . Voters give Sherman a slim 6 point lead (32% to 26%) according to the poll." [Kimball, n=422 likely, automated telephone, +/-4.7%]

I'm not sure I would call a 6-point lead a "clinging" moment, but it is true that this poll is narrower than the 13-point lead found by SurveyUSA last month. What the poll really shows is that, if the sample is the same representation, Sherman's support of decided voters has dropped from 58% to 55%, and the number of undecided voters climbed by 19 points. Both were automated, with SurveyUSA augmenting telephone with web-based surveys. Kimball's sample would be a lot more interesting if race was included, as Sherman's largest lead has been among Latino voters.

Here's where the money stands:

Howard Berman
Receipts this quarter: $725,674
Receipts this cycle: $4,226,202
Expenditures this quarter: $782,115
Expenditures this cycle: $5,061,089
Cash on Hand: $394,998 
Debt: $206,610 ($0 to candidate)

Brad Sherman
Receipts this quarter: $230,675
Receipts this cycle: $2,992,272
Expenditures this quarter: $1,391,474
Expenditures this cycle: $4,206,626
Cash on Hand: $1,847,715
Debt: $745,502 ($702,500 to candidate)

IE's:

  • Committee for an Effective Valley Congressman: Howard Berman (Support): $273,439
  • National Association of Realtors: Brad Sherman (Support): $32,600
  • Californians for Integrity in Government: Brad Sherman (Support): $74,601

Kyle Trygstad, after a visit to the Valley last week, writes today in Roll Call why it's a fight for the death:

"While some Democrats in the state groan at all the money this race is soaking up, Sherman noted that this isn’t just a race for one more term in Congress."

"'Let’s face it,' he said, 'whoever wins this thing is in for the next 20 years.'"

Sherman is still the favorite with a huge financial advantage and an continued lead in the polls with only three weeks to go. With Democrats playing to pick up seats across the country, Berman's solid backers in congressional leadership are just not in the position to help.

EIGHT-YEAR OLD BRAD: A parody of Brad Sherman's childhood.

RASMUSSEN GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL TRACKER: Democrats 43% (-1), Republicans 42% (-1)

CD09: Full Report on CA9 Gill-McNerney Debate [Josh Richman @ CCTimes]

CD36: "@NRCC going on the air against Raul Ruiz, ties him to Pelosi #CA36" [Kyle Trygstad @ Roll Call]

The Press Enterprise has the ad.

$$$: Business is going all in to beat Richard Roth in SD31 and Jose Medina in AD61.

SD05: ModBee endorses Cathleen Galgiani.

SD39: Does George Plescia have a shot against Marty Block? Some shot-caller apparently believes so.

PROPOSITIONS: Michael Krasny covers Proposition 30 and Proposition 38 today.

AND IT WASN'T DONNELLY: Legislator Says Officials 'Should Be Shot' As Lousy Tax Stewards [Jim Sanders @ SacBee]

 

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BALLOT MEASURE ENDORSEMENTS - 

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LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
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UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Printing $648.55 10/15/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Payroll $ 10/15/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) payroll $4,425.00 10/15/12
CREDO SuperPac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Phones $7,837.77 10/15/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Raul Bocanegra (Support) $39,987 10/12/2012 10/15/2012
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Raul Bocanegra (Support) $15,000 10/14/2012 10/15/2012
American Federation Of State, County And Municipal Employees, Afl-cio, Council 36 Jerry Vilander (Support) $1,500 10/12/2012 10/15/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Richard Bloom (i) (Oppose) $21,000 10/15/2012 10/15/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Betsy Butler (i) (Support) $63,000 10/15/2012 10/15/2012
California Credit Union League Political Action Committee Rudy Salas (Support) $10,000 10/15/2012 10/15/2012
California Hispanic Chamber Of Commerce Independent Expenditure Committee Raul Bocanegra (Support) $18,838 10/15/2012 10/15/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability Sponsored By Dentists, School Employees, Health Care Providers, Correctional Officers And Construction Trades Organizations Rico Oller (i) (Oppose) $18,803 10/13/2012 10/15/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability Sponsored By Dentists, School Employees, Health Care Providers, Correctional Officers And Construction Trades Organizations Frank Bigelow (i) (Support) $18,803 10/13/2012 10/15/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $4,472 10/14/2012 10/15/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Fran Pavley (Oppose) $164,574 10/15/2012 10/15/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers Association Jose Medina (Oppose) $91,104 10/15/2012 10/15/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers Association Richard Roth (Oppose) $129,093 10/15/2012 10/15/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown Seeks College Students' Support For Proposition 30
Laurel Rosenhall @
sacbee.com
It's not often the youngest voters can weigh in on something that will have an immediate and concrete impact on their lives. But that's the case with a tax measure on California's Nov. 6 ballot known as Proposition 30.

Legislator Says Officials 'Should Be Shot' As Lousy Tax Stewards
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Assemblyman Mike Morrell's opponent released videotaped remarks of a campaign speech in which the Republican incumbent said that government officials "should be shot" for how they handle tax money.

Companies Bail Out From Prop. 39 Fight Over Corporate 'Loophole'
Steven Harmon @
contracostatimes.com
Out-of-state businesses forego campaign against Proposition 39, an initiative that proponents say would close a tax loophole and provide California $1 billion a year. Some say they were intimidated by a wealthy activists promise to hurt their brand.

Ad Watch: Prop. 33 Ad Misleads On Discounts, Spokesperson
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
Two women in ads touting Proposition 33 are not identified as employees of a PR firm working on the Yes on 33 campaign.Backers of Proposition 33 have run a series of TV ads depicting motorists who support the initiative, which would alter the way auto insurance premiums are regulated in California. Here is a text of one of the ads, and an analysis by Bee staff writer Dale Kasler.

Gov. Jerry Brown To Hit The Road For Prop. 30
latimesblogs.latimes.com
After a six-week absence from the campaign trail, Gov. Jerry Brown plans to hit the road this week to promote his signature tax initiative, Proposition 30. On Tuesday, Brown is set to speak at a rally with UCLA students. The...

Molly Munger Gives Brown A Reprieve By Pulling Proposition 30 Attack Ad
contracostatimes.com
As California Gov. Jerry Brown prepares to ramp up his campaign for Proposition 30 with stops on college campuses, he gets good news that his chief rival is turning away from negative spots.

Maywood Residents Want Action On New Clean-water Law
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Maywood residents want action on new water law

Senate District 27 Race Focuses On Jobs, Education
Jillian Olivas @
neontommy.com
Democratic Sen. Fran Pavley and Republican candidate Todd Zink feature the economy and education reform at the head of their campaigns for California's 27th State Senate District.

Viewpoints: Will Prop. 30 boost public education? Yes
Joshua Pechtalt @
sacbee.com
When I am asked why I support Proposition 30 I think about Manual Arts High School, where I taught for more than 20 years. Manual Arts is an inner-city school in Los Angeles, serving the families who need public education the most.

Group for 'courageous' candidates sits out November campaign
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
A new political committee created to back California legislative candidates with courage has decided not to drop cash on the general election races.

Stark Education Differences In Presidential Race, Say Surrogates
Kathryn Baron @
edsource.org
Education has not exactly been at the forefront of the presidential campaign. It received far less than even 15 minutes of fame during the first debate, but stand-ins for President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney explored it in depth last night in a debate that revealed sharp philosophical and policy differences between the two candidates.

Munger phasing out ad critical of Gov. Jerry Brown initiative
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Wealthy attorney Molly Munger is phasing out her ad today critical of Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative, her campaign said.

Voter Fraud Found In Vernon Election, New Winner Named
Sam Allen @
latimes.com
A hearing officer on Monday concluded that voter fraud occurred during Vernon's June City Council election, throwing out seven of the 64 ballots cast and declaring a new winner in the race.

Prop 30 Challenge: Voters Back Money For Schools Not Sacramento
David Plank @
edsource.org
California voters understand that their schools are in trouble. Forty-two percent of voters give the state’s schools a grade of D or F, while fewer than 15 percent give them an A or B. Fifty-seven percent of voters believe that California schools have gotten worse in the past few years, and only 7 percent believe that they have gotten better.

The Reality Of What's Happening With California Gas Prices
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
When California gasoline prices suddenly spiked upward this month, the state's motorists, media – and politicians – characteristically overreacted.

Pot Shops Provoke Bitter Neighborhood Council Election
Kate Linthicum @
latimes.com
A provision of city law allowed more than 300 outsiders to vote in Eagle Rock contest. One flier offered $40 worth of pot those who cast ballots.

Money Pouring In To Defeat Prop. 37 | Genetically, Engineered, Crops - Life - The Orange County Register
COURTNEY PERKES @
ocregister.com
A Prop. 37 debate is scheduled for Friday at Chapman University in Orange. The free event takes place 3-5 p.m. in Beckman Hall, Room 404, 1 University Drive.

State Hotline Provides Inaccurate Voter Registration Deadline
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
Some callers to a California secretary of state's office hotline hear an inaccurate message saying voter registration for the Nov. 6 election had closed.

Prop. 38 proponent to stop airing TV ad critical of Prop. 30
Anthony York @
latimes.com
Molly Munger, proponent of Prop. 38, says she will take down a TV advertisement critical of Prop. 30, a tax plan backed by Gov. Jerry Brown on the same ballot.

What would you ask DeMaio, Filner about education?
utsandiego.com
We're looking for questions to ask Carl DeMaio and Bob Filner at a mayoral debate focused on education hosted by the University of San Diego's Center for Education Policy and Law and U-T San Diego on Oct. 23. U-T TV will broadcast and stream the event live on Cox Channel 114 and UTTV.com

Warring Parties Agree On Some Levee, Habitat Fixes In Sacramento-san Joaquin Delta - Our Region - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Stakeholders in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta water wars have agreed to support $1 billion in 43 short-term projects.

Fletcher endorses SDUSD Prop. Z
utsandiego.com
Republican-turned-Independent Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher on Tuesday endorsed Proposition Z, the San Diego Unified School District's $2.8 billion bond measure to be decided on the November ballot.

Tax Debtors Owe State Billions But Rarely Face Sanctions
accessing this site, you accept our @
baycitizen.org
Dr. Baldomero De Leon Jr. has practiced internal medicine for more than 30 years, currently working out of a second-floor ...